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2ndtimearound

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2ndtimearound last won the day on January 6

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  1. The saving grace is BTC. It's climbed so far above its low of $3200 that I feel like it's very unlikely to go back down that low. In other words, if XRP were to somehow go down to 30c, we're probably looking at a low BTC/XRP value...which IMO....I would be loading up on XRP at 30c to 31c range even though I've """"stopped buying"""".
  2. Exactly this....it's comical that you had to type all of that out for the OP....circulation is irrelevant. What matters is what the market values the total circulation (in this case, yes market cap). Buying 100,000 of coin A at $1 each is the same as buying 10,000 of coin B at $10 each if both coin A and coin B have the same market cap. "But...but...coin B is worth ten times more than coin A!" ....yes, keep taking your medication, my imaginary messageboard adversary (perhaps I should keep taking mine!).
  3. Rigid: slow and expensive to transact, and its value can't be expressed elegantly. It excelled as a prototype though.
  4. Tiffany clear loves being a node host. Yikes, one wrong letter and I would be looking at a ban!
  5. Tell me....is it better to own 100,000 of a coin with with 50Bn circulation, sell them when they get to $3 each, and make a profit of $50,000 when I sell them.....or own 10,000 of a coin with 5Bn circulation, sell them when they get to $30 and make a profit of $50,000 when I sell them? To give you a hint, only one key figure matters in all of the numbers I mentioned, and the number rhymes with smifty lousand.
  6. You've been listening to Susie Crew too much. Price of an asset has everything to do with its circulation.
  7. I don't think they do either...but if XRP became very much in demand by banks, and there was only one available (realistic) outlet (Ripple), then I would see the escrow selling out each month as a massive "buy signal" for investors who use exchanges. We're miles away from that happening right now (Ripple sell only a quarter of what they make available) - I only mentioned XRP selling out each month to determine how quickly Ripple's OTC supply would dry up (4 years+) and what effect those monthly "sold out" signals would give the market - upward pressure on XRP's price. Could you explain that one further? You're talking about short positions being liquidated, right? How would it push the price up so high though?
  8. Simple question: do you agree that XRP's price can rise from 53 cents to $334 (or whatever) based on a single buy on a single exchange, as Susie clearly states over and over is possible? My point is that IF Ripple's Escrow was to sell out each month, it means demand is outstripping supply, and that XRP's price will naturally rise on exchanges in that scenario. So Susie's idea that one buy order can make XRP do an x700 is pure fantasy - it would be a constant, month after month of demand outstripping supply that would give an upward pressure to the price, not one single buy on one exchange. That would be what Ripple and R3 and the banks want as well - not incredible volatility. By the time Ripple empty their Escrow, XRP's price will certainly NOT be 53 cents. It will be...well, who knows, but lets say at least double digit dollars. Sure, THEN (after at least 52 months, but likely 10 or so years from now) demand pressure on exchanges would surely drive XRP's price up further, but it will not be as she describes it. If she was right, then huge sell orders would also have a devastating effect on XRP's price. Also think about an xRapid payment - buy $50K of XRP on Bittrex ("wow, XRP is now $334 per XRP on Bittrex!") - then you have to SELL that XRP on Bitso's exchange for a Mexican payment - so what happens to the peso price of the XRP? No mention of that in her video. In reality, such buys and sells do NOT have such a devastating, unwanted impact on price, but what change in price there is gets smoothed out by arbitrage.
  9. Yes, if Ripple sell out of XRP even in just one single month, I would venture that the price of XRP would be going up considerably ANYWAY. The selling out of the escrowed XRP for a single month signals something very big, and it's a signal that investors would see as a green light to buy up XRP themselves. If XRP sold out of XRP each month for 52 months in a row, we would NOT still be at something like 50c....then waiting for that one order to push us to $334 on an exchange (LOL) - we'd probably be comfortably at $10+ by then (conservative estimate) and exchange activity would surely increase if XRP is far less available OTC. That increase of buyers would surely push up XRP faster, yes...demand outstripping supply. I just find the notion that a single order can push XRP from 50c to $334 nonsensical and not-how-markets-work.
  10. "I don't really know"? Yes I do know. The ledger is transparent. I already offered proof of how often exchanges are replenished by Ripple > https://www.zerpslurp.com/xrpl_monitor.asp. Ripple sell to the exchanges with programmatic sales, but if they need more, they will simply buy more from Ripple. Susie flat-out made up a supposition when she assumed an exchange would have to go to another exchange and quite literally buy XRP like a regular retail investor would. This is so silly and absurd. Let me walk you through why it's silly and absurd :- 1. The point of the exchange needing more XRP would be to fill up the sell order book. Why? Because they make money off fees. If a trading pair has a thin sell book, guess what? Very little to no trading will occur. That means little to no fees. 2. If an exchange bought from another exchange like a retail investor would, the average sale price they got for each XRP would be incredibly high. So anyway they take this high-priced XRP and then layer asks in the sell order book to get liquidity back....but wait up, they have to put them in at a high price because they bought them at a high price. XRP is available on other exchanges at 600 times cheaper prices, so nobody is buying them...no liquidity, no fees, the exchange is holding VERY heavy bags they will have to sell at hundreds of times the price they bought them at. Of course, this is a weird fantasy scenario that never happens because exchanges are not stupid. As I said before, a retail shop does not buy from another retail shop - they buy from the wholesaler. This is very basic economics of buying something in bulk, then selling it in smaller pieces at a higher price. Sure, the wholesaler one day....in the distant future....will not exist, but that's years away (literally according to the Escrow schedule) and this salient point is never mentioned in the video. 3. In any case, arbitrage bots will sniff out the thin sell book and see the "cheapest" XRP at $334 or whatever, and stack lower asks above it - eventually taking it down to market price. Well you're disagreeing with Susie now as she never mentioned post-Escrow. Her logic was that an exchange suddenly goes into "panic mode" and will buy XRP on the market from other exchanges. This is pure supposition not supported by any facts whatsoever. You can bet that Ripple will have made it as easy as possible for their customers to buy XRP - mouse click, then 4 seconds later 50M XRP in their wallet. The Escrow still has 50Bn+ XRP available, 1Bn a month available. Ripple are selling about a quarter of what they offer each month (see stats in this comment below). Sure, if demand outstrips supply, prices go up. That's a different point to what Susie is saying - she's assuming Ripple magically can't supply an exchange in the first place if they run out of XRP on the sell books. For that to be the case, we're likely looking at many years ahead, and the video doesn't mention this. Probably by that time, XRP's price has stablised at a higher price with lots of liquidity, so such "big" orders won't affect the market so much anyway. The Escrow started in December 2017. I make that 18 Escrow months have elapsed. There are currently 51,200,000,000* in Escrow as I write, down from 55,000,000,000 when it started. That means the Escrow has fallen 3.8 billion XRP in 18 months. Potentially it could have fallen 18 billion (if they sold out each month). Yes, XRP could suddenly have a much bigger demand later on, but that's to be determined. We do know that exchanges will have at least 51 months where Ripple have a full supply of 1 billion XRP that they can sell. So far, that 1 billion XRP has been far more than enough for exchanges. We might be looking at at least another ten years before Ripple have no more XRP to sell...if not, it will be at least 52 months (technically). All of this is never mentioned in Susie's video. And I'm not picking on her - anyone making a 30 minute video on a single theory that can be taken apart very easily...will be taken apart very easily by anyone who can be bothered to do it (I happened to have the motivation here and the time). * from this data > https://data.ripple.com/v2/network/xrp_distribution To sum up - the Escrow is at LEAST 4 years from completion, likely 6 years+ given it simply won't sell 1bn a month in the next 12 months or so unless there's some stunning news item. In that time, XRP's price could be anything between 10 cents and $589 anyway. So much will have happened in that time.
  11. Yeah he often goes into these recursive verbal loops because he doesn't know what to say next - his summaries repeat over and over as he finishes a video (his summaries seem to need as long as the actual information that preceded them!).
  12. All I can say is her courses must be completely different to what she says on her videos, as her videos are riddled with inaccuracies about crypto specifically. Let's look at one of her videos:- To sum up her theory:- someone makes a huge bid on a single exchange that eats up a sell book (on that single exchange) from 53 cents to $334 - that's fairly easy to understand now she skis off-piste with a nonsense idea: if that single exchange runs out of XRP for the sell book, they would buy XRP just like a regular retail investor would on other exchanges, thus lifting the price of XRP on those exchanges. This is unbelievable nonsense. An exchange that has a thin sell book would go to Ripple for XRP, who have more than enough to sell each month, and they'd get XRP at a much lower cost than if they bought up buy books on other exchanges. I imagine the exchange would then offer XRP at market rate prices to actually, you know, get the trade pair moving again and get them (the exchange) earning fees which is their whole point of existing. If an exchanges didn't resupply their sell books in this way, the trade pair would simply stop - nobody would buy XRP at $337 when it's available elsewhere for 53 cents. Ripple are constantly supplying exchanges with XRP on a pretty-much daily basis - see here : https://www.zerpslurp.com/xrpl_monitor.asp This whole video is based on a false premise that can be PROVEN to be false. No exchange would buy XRP at retail prices (especially if that price goes up and up as they eat up order books) - they'd buy wholesale, and get a wholesale price from their wholesaler, Ripple. "But but what if they desperately need XRP!" - come on, wholesale XRP from Ripple will be a mouse click away for an exchange. It'll be FASTER than buying it on an exchange and cheaper. If shop A runs out of apples, do they go to shop B and buy their apples at retail price? No, shop A's apples are out of stock until their wholesaler supplies them. Why? Because profit.
  13. The price went to 42/43c a few hours ago so pretty much spot on with this analysis!
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