Single_Malt reacted to jbjnr in An ODL update (Dec 2020)
I haven't posted an update on ODL traffic for some time, here's an update. Please note that I am only able to infer ODL traffic based on 'on-ledger' transactions - if there is ODL traffic that occurs soley on a single exchange, such as USD-EUR or USD-XRP-EUR or the reverse, then I do not capture it. The last time I posted anything about ODL traffic was when ripple made the switch from large treasury transactions to smaller payments. The switchover is clear from the quarterly totals of ODL traffic as you can see in this plot - there is a huge drop between Q2 and Q3 2020. December is just getting started, and hopefully you can see that Q4 2020 is already as large as Q3, so we should be looking at reasonable growth by the end of the year (maybe as much as 25% up compared to Q3).
Quarterly traffic - Please note that the currency labels are guesses - the assumption that bitstamp->bitso traffic is USD->MXN may not be true as bitso now trade other currencies, but since I am only looking at ledger traffic, I cannot be sure of the source/dest currencies - so the colour bars should simply tell you that corridors exist in those areas - the fact that USD/MXN exists in multiple bars is simply due to the fact that multiple wallets/tags operate between bitstamp/bitso regularly.
Weekly traffic looks like this
you can see that after the switchover in traffic in early june, there has been a gradual but slow rise in traffic that fluctuates randomly - no doubt due to both fiat and xrp exchange rate and volatility. It is encouraging to see that traffic is still gradually increasing with a noticeable uptick over the last month or two.
Daily traffic looks like this
You can see a little more fine structure on the daily rates, with the weekend drops and recent rise in mon-fri transactions. Here's a close up view of June 2020 onwards
There is a big drop last week for thanksgiving in the USA, but apart from that you can see daily rates are doing well and gradually rising - weekend traffic seems to be rising slightly as well.
Total ODL volume and 2 week average looks as follows, here, in blue I've added the XRP price - just so you can see that there is no correlation at all between ODL volume and xrp price. I had wondered at the start of 2020 when ODL volume picked up sharply, and price rose for a couple of weeks, that perhaps there might have been some effect, but it is clear from the rest of this year, that speculative activity dwarfs all other effects.
My favourite plot for looking at activity is this one
What you see in the above 5 plots are the ODL traffic in bands of value, 10USD->100USD, then 100-1000, 1000-10000 and so on.
The top 10-100 chart shows a steady slow climb in activity over the last year - the total amount is still a pittance, since even thousands of transfers per day, doesn't amount to millions in value, but the trend is up in a steady fashion. Someone is making regular, but small, remittance payments and gradually building up.
The second 100-1000 plot is quite interesting - here we can see a gradual uptrend, superimposed onto random noise and a signal that looks like a monthly cycle, where payments are peaking with a periodic frequency of around a month. The peaks and troughs appear to shift slightly - so we're not seeing a regular end of month payday triggering remittances - but it may nonetheless be an affect caused by paypackets being received monthly - with remittances being sent when convenient (depending on day of week relative to the end of month etc etc).
In plots 3 and 4, you can clearly see the transition between treasury payments and smaller remittances where the traffic shifts from plot 4, to plot 3, but there is a gradual move back to plot 4 over the last few weeks as the payment amounts are creeping slowly up again. So far we still only have a handful of corridors open, so total volume is low, but if and when more corridors come online, things ought to pick up noticeably and will show up. I hope we don't have to wait another year to see more traffic.
Single_Malt reacted to Ripple_A_S_Well in Charting the course of XRP
that's why i left "the zerpening" after two years. we'll have to wait and see what else happens, but many have missed a great opportunity because they were negatively influenced by some opinion makers here (i won't mention any names). this clouds the joy a little - but the rest of us can be very happy at the moment
Single_Malt reacted to mars75 in Ripple's Potential Role in the Universal Financial Access 2020 Initiative
Late last year, Xi Jinping gave a speech declaring that blockchain technology presented an important breakthrough on several key areas within China and that the government intended to utilize the technology. Xi Jinping claimed that the development of distributed ledger technology provided a pivotal moment in which it allowed the Chinese state to reform and improve the inefficiencies found within the Chinese financial market. Stating that “It is necessary to explore the application of ‘blockchain’ in people’s daily life, and actively promote the application of blockchain technology in the fields of education, employment, pension, data-driven poverty alleviation, medical health, anti-counterfeiting, food safety, public welfare, social assistance, etc”. (1) Xi’s speech was in stark contrast to China’s previous posture on blockchain technology, specifically on cryptocurrencies such as BTC. But the public statement displayed that the Chinese government had finally come to an understanding on the potential blockchain technology can provide to the state. Unfortunately, most crypto evangelists took the speech to mean that the Chinese market was opening itself to the publicly traded cryptocurrencies found in crypto exchanges. An appreciation in the total crypto market capitalization only reinforced this notion that China was simply going to adopt the current, open source blockchains present. Weeks passed and China’s historical stance on cryptocurrencies was further fortified when several crypto exchanges halted or ceased services amid speculation of a crackdown within the country. (2) A contradicting development to Xi’s previous speech earlier in the year. However, there has been collaboration and developments by the state in the background that would corroborate Xi’s statements.
Financial Access 2020
The foundation was laid at the 2015 World Bank Group–IMF Spring meetings. These meetings resulted in the establishment of the Universal Financial Access 2020 (UFA2020) initiative. The World Bank Group along with both private and public sector partners, committed themselves to promote and enable global financial inclusion in a multi-year program. With the intentions of enabling individuals who are not currently connected to the financial system, to have access to a transaction account to store money while also being able to send and receive payments. Setting a goal of enabling one billion unfinanced individuals to gain access by 2020. Their approach being the development of a platform that has a biometric identity database, virtual payment addressing, and digital payment interoperability. (3)
At the time, there were over 30 partners that committed towards the UFA2020 initiative. Participants that now include the likes of Alipay, Du Xiaoman Financial (Baidu), BBVA Microfinance Foundation, CFPA Microfinance, Confederation of West African Financial Institutions (CIF), MasterCard, Pakistan Microfinance Network, State Bank of India, VISA, etc. (4) With each of these partners doing independent projects or collaborations to meet the UFA2020’s target.
One such program that was spawned from the UFA2020 initiative, was the Financial Inclusion Global Initiative (FIGI). A three-year program formed by the collaboration between the World Bank Group, the Committee on Payments and Market Infrastructure (CPMI), and the International Telecommunications Union (ITU). The program is funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. (5) Their collective goal is “to support and accelerate the implementation of country-led reform actions to meet national financial inclusion targets, and ultimately the global ‘Universal Financial Access 2020’ goal”. (5) This subgroup plans to utilize the “work of the CPMI-World Bank Group Task Force on the Payment Aspects of Financial Inclusion (PAFI), the BMGF’s Level One Project, and the ITU Focus Group – Digital Financial Services, to deliver implementation solutions, deep topical analyses and practical investigations, working toward the goal of Universal Financial Access by 2020”. (5)
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation’s Level One Project is recognized by followers of Ripple due to the project’s development and intention of utilizing the Interledger Protocol to address interoperability between financial systems while helping lower the costs in developing inclusive payment platforms. Thru panels held at the FIGI symposiums, there is apparent dialogue and collaboration between the FIGI organization, the World Bank, and Ripple. (6)
The main purpose of the FIGI receiving grant money from the BMGF in 2017, was to accelerate financial inclusion in developing countries. With three countries being selected to be the focus of the initiative. Those countries being Mexico, Egypt, and China since they contain millions of unbanked individuals. (7) Ultimately, the development and progression of the initiative will be used as models for digital financial inclusion innovations around the globe. And regarding the selected countries, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) specifically requested support from the World Bank Group to aid in bridging the gap between the Chinese financial system and their citizens found in remote areas. (7)
Interesting enough, the FIGI initiative aligned with other partnerships and projects in 2017. Partnerships that were composed of Ripple, Huawei, Mojaloop, etc. As some in the Ripple/XRP community might remember, officials from the PBOC visited the San Francisco Ripple offices in August 2017. (8) The community speculated on numerous possibilities on why Ripple was being visited by PBOC officials but there was no disclosed explanation of the meeting between Ripple and the PBOC. But looking at other announcements from 2017 chronologically, some perspective on the PBOC and Ripple meeting can be gained.
First, the PBOC sought guidance and help by the World Bank Group to foster financial inclusion innovation within the country. The FIGI under the UFA2020 initiative, choose China to be one of the three countries focused on fostering innovation early 2017. In August 2017, the PBOC visited the Ripple offices in San Francisco. Two months later, BMGF and Ripple’s collaboration and development on Mojaloop was publicized. (9) Yet one aspect of the announcement on Mojaloop that was overlooked was that four mobile systems companies were brought to help develop an Open API for mobile money interoperability. Those companies being Ericsson, Telepin, Mahindra Comviva, and Huawei. (10) And with a document from the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) on “Digital Currency including Digital Fiat Currency”, we know that the Mojaloop API was designed by the four mobile companies that included Huawei. (11) Huawei and the BMGF have also been collaborating on promoting interoperability and financial inclusion since the previous year. Late 2016, Huawei announced partnership with the Gates Foundation on the Level One Project. (12) With the partnership focusing on developing “scalable, low-cost, interoperable and fraud resistant payment systems will be based on open Application Programming Interfaces (API’s) and help people in the world’s poorest regions improve their lives and build sustainable futures by connecting them with digitally based financial tools and services”. (12) Coincidentally occurring right when the Mojaloop API was being developed in the same Level One Project. Nonetheless, the Mojaloop API seems to be both an innovation and solution both Huawei and the BMGF sought to develop in their partnership.
We know that the BMGF and Bill Gates himself, have been aware since 2016 ,of the potential revolution the Interledger Protocol can bring to the financial system1d. With Bill Gates even recognizing how Ripple’s technology can move money across countries efficiently and cheaply. (13) Although Ripple’s known involvement in China is thru LianLian Pay and some possible penetration thru third parties such as AirWallex, there appears to be a potential utilization of the Mojaloop API thru Huawei in FIGI’s project within China. This can potentially explain why Ripple expanded into China with the opening of offices in the country. (14)
Outside of FIGI’s scope in China, there are other developments with UFA2020 affiliates forming and investing in projects that could leverage the Interledger Protocol. A recent example involves a group of Ripple investors and partners raising capital for Currencycloud. Currencycloud is a UK startup that has developed remittance APIs that allows any financial business to integrate money transfer services thru Currencycloud’s platform. A duo of Ripple shareholders in SBI and Siam Commercial Bank participated in the Series E round for the UK startup. But interesting enough, VISA and the World Bank Group’s International Finance Corporation also partook in the series round. (15) Two key members of the UFA2020 initiative. These investors intend to promote and utilize Currencycloud’s API for cross-border payments. While VISA has also entered a partnership with the UK startup. Thrugh the partnership, VISA plans to expand and improve their services by using Currencycloud’s platform. (16) Yet Currencycloud has another notable partnership with the Ripple associate, DWOLLA. DWOLLA is not only known for sharing a seat with Ripple on the US Faster Payments Council but more importantly, for their collaboration in developing the Mojaloop platform. (17) DWOLLA will be leveraging the UK startup’s platform to expand their network for coverage on 38 currencies in 180 countries. (16) And on a final note, Currenycloud has an impressive group of clients that includes The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. (16) Furgther adding another affiliate to the assortment of UFA2020 and Ripple partners involved with Currencycloud. (16)
Looking at announcements or projects through the perspective of promoting and expanding the Universal Financial Access 2020 initiative, one can conceivably see the purpose and structure of collaborations done by Ripple associates to possibly promote adoption of the Interledger Protocol.
Single_Malt reacted to King34Maine in Blockchain company Ripple invests in MoneyGram to power cross-border payments, shares explode higher
It’s no secret that MoneyGram had initially joined RippleNet January of last year stating that they were going to utilize xRapid. However, in many ways, I feel as if Ripple’s most recent commitment with MoneyGram is a bit of a bold move by them if you ask me. I don't think most people fully understand just how audacious of a move on the chessboard this was. Essentially, by acquiring ownership/equity (up to a ~10% stake) in MoneyGram, no matter how small, they have essentially tethered themselves to the success and/or failure of MoneyGram so to speak. It's no secret that MoneyGram has been having some financial issues of late. If MoneyGram isn’t able to “right the ship” and the company has to file Chapter 11 or worst Chapter 7, one can only imagine what Ripple’s naysayers/competitors will say!! "Ripple's coveted blockchain tech, xRapid and XRP, fails to prevent MoneyGram from going bankrupt!!" "Ripple, rips the life from MoneyGram!!" Ripple has touted some pretty significant figures that financial institutions could potentially save utilizing xCurrent vs. xCurrent + xRapid. It would be a brutal PR nightmare if they can’t deliver!! However, if they succeed in helping to bring MoneyGram back into positive cash-flows, it will be a resounding victory and validation for Ripple, RippleNet, and xRapid.
At the end of the day, this is what it's all about; laying it all on the line. Ripple has spent a great deal of engineering resources, millions of dollars, and almost 10 years building, testing, and trialing the various solutions that makeup RippleNet (i.e. xCurrent, xVia, and xRapid). It's a put the hell up or shut the hell up moment for them. However, I believe that there's more to this story between Ripple and MoneyGram than meets the eye. Most of us who follow Ripple knows that they don’t just make a random 50-million dollar investment into a company unless it is strategic to the interest of building RippleNet, the XRP-Ledger, and xPring ecosystems. With a deal of this magnitude, you can bet your ass that they’ve dotted every “I” and crossed every “T” to ensure that this endeavor succeeds. I feel like there will be some new developments/partnerships for MoneyGram, particularly from Asia-Pacific (i.e. China and Japan). I mentioned in a previous post how Ant Financial had previously tried to purchase MoneyGram, but due to a conflict of interest of a foreign entity having access to the financial records of US citizens, the merger/buyout was denied by the federal govt. Well, I think they (Ant Financial) may revisit the idea of a partnership with MoneyGram since an outright merger/buyout is out of the question. This bodes well for Ripple as well because this could be key into getting a larger foot-print into China besides their LianLian Pay and America Express partnership connection. Also, because of MoneyGram’s infrastructure into most exotic corridors that are not well serviced by the larger correspondent banking system, MoneyGram can essentially become one of Ripple’s xRapid Multi-Hop exchanges for all of their partners similar to what SCB is planning for the ASEAN region. I'm both excited and nervous at the same time!!
Single_Malt reacted to Panopticon in Blockchain company Ripple invests in MoneyGram to power cross-border payments, shares explode higher
FYI all crypto's are created out of thin air. They don't occur in nature.
Single_Malt reacted to GoldenGoose in How Much XRP do people here have?
While SCUBA diving near a place called Monte Cristo, I discovered several chests full of XRP coins. Once I brought them to the surface, I started counting them. Even counting 3-4 per second, I soon realized I would be dead before I finished counting. Instead, I now supply Ripple with all of the XRP they need.
I also make sure the price stays artificially low, just to bug Anton.
Single_Malt reacted to Capone in I’m out
Ok that’s it. I have been selling my XRP’s slowly in the last few months and today I sold the last of it .
The anemic price performance is the main reason of course but there’s more .
This last announcement of a deal with MoneyGram looks very suspicious. Why ?
Because Ripple has not been invited in they just bought their way in . Most likely from the proceeds of XRP sales.
The stock price of MoneyGram went up 200% , it’s just a two years contract they have nothing to loose .
And then there’s this. : https://bitcoinist.com/ripple-ceo-im-not-an-xrp-maximalisti-own-bitcoin/
Single_Malt reacted to GrayFox in Poject Ubin resurfaces
I'm just reading the papers now and pulled out a few things. I tried to tweet the buggers but I'm not good at that and made a mess of it. One of the interesting things the paper says is that they don't expect all Central banks to be using the same system and not a single friggin' country will relinquish their market so the next best thing is to allow each country to have its own system and yet be connected and be interoperable with other systems. This points towards a world dominated by Interledger Protocol as the industry standard and even if god forbid ILP does not succeed then there needs to be a payment rail that interconnects every other domestic rail. So here goes my musings!
According to the Project Jasper/Ubin published papers they refer to this paper "The Bank of Canada, Bank of England and Monetary Authority of Singapore share assessment on emerging opportunities for digital transformation in cross-border payments" and the focus was picturing three scenarios:
The report examines three models of cross-border payments. The first two are built on existing domestic interbank payment systems using traditional technology. The third model focuses on the use of Wholesale Central Bank Digital Currency and its various applications through Distributed Ledger Technology. The models could be used to improve access, speed and transparency of cross-border payments. However, the report finds that further work would be required, by both industry and regulators, if the models were to be developed further. Future areas of focus could include implementation and policy challenges.
Link 1 - http://www.mas.gov.sg/News-and-Publications/Media-Releases/2018/Assessment-on-emerging-opportunities-for-digital-transformation-in-cross-border-payments.aspx
According to the paper: The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) and the Bank of Canada (BOC), together with JP Morgan and Accenture, embarked on the Jasper-Ubin Project, a technology-based experiment to realize this all-or-nothing guarantee through an atomic transaction for a Canadian Dollar (CAD) - Singapore Dollar (SGD) payment across two distributed ledger technology (DLT) platforms based on Hash TimeLocked Contracts (HTLC). HTLC uses smart contracts to synchronize all the actions making up a transaction so that either they all happen, or none happens.
We know ILP is capable of this feature and the fact that it is controlled by a non-profit organisation which allows for a consensus in updating standards: Link 2- https://interledger.org/rfcs/0022-hashed-timelock-agreements/
According to the paper: Their was a collaboration between the BoE, BoC and MAS in regards to this whole new interoperability in central banks settlements and synchronication of payments and settlements across the globe as per the Link 1 posted above. The paper delves into the scenarios of what happens when one point fails then all the payments should fail. We all recall the proof of concept on Ripple by the BoE and their call of interest for synchronisation which is still happening for the new RTGS.
PoC on Ripple: This PoC focused on a high-value cross border payment scenario in which transactions in two different currencies are executed simultaneously in two different simulated RTGS systems that could represent two different countries. Our key objectives were: 1- Determining whether the Interledger protocol could provide a suitable technical solution to the scenario; 2- Exploring situations in which the synchronised settlement process should not complete (for example, where there is a lack of available liquidity to make a payment) and to understand potential ways of responding; and 3- Building understanding of the technical challenges associated with both synchronisation and the Interledger Protocol. The PoC provides some interesting findings if we link it to the Jasper/Ubin paper and the fact that the BoE is involved in the background. Link3 https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/research/fintech/-/media/boe/files/fintech/ripple.pdfla=en&hash=75E5F445230B8A2B794C208D29619A3E33F1FFE7&hash=75E5F445230B8A2B794C208D29619A3E33F1FFE7
I'm going to shut the hell up as this is about to turn into a clusterf**k but you see where I'm getting at? Ripple hinted at this - There's not going to be a one blockchain to rule them all, they envisioned the possibility of multiple blockchains (and don't even get me started on multihop!) and so they allowed for ILP to flourish outside their control in order to create favourable environment for the XRP ledger to flourish.
Now back to my vodka.....
Single_Malt reacted to GrayFox in The Ripple Drop - Episode 12
Funny enough now that I look at that deal and who are involved, this is pretty under the radar. The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development has had its eyes on Ripple for quite sometime and one of their publications dates back to 2017. Page 35 of this document talks about DLT and Financial Inclusion, Ripple is one of the first examples and there's nothing negative said.
And this one is from their sister organisation the IFC
The USA is long gone by now