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  1. Agrilax

    Kichiro Fukui

    Absolutely this. There are so many people that are either uneducated/don't know how to apply scientific thinking to problems (which is what should be applied to any sort of analysis). You have your hypothesis, your aim should be to seek information/data that disproves it, and if you have managed to obtain a sufficient amount of data and none of it proves it wrong, perhaps then you could say your hypothesis is correct - even then, data must be evaluated and scenarios envisioned where a certain mechanism will prove your hypothesis wrong, but perhaps obtaining data is not possible.
  2. 1. XRP 2. BTC 3. ETH 4. ZIL 5. TRX I think we will see some regulatory clarity this year which may be bullish for XRP, I also think we will see some bank usage of XRP this year in that scenario - possibly by BoA towards the end of the year. I'm a bit conservative about BTC falling to 2nd because if it does, it probably falls much further as it loses the only advantage it has over other tech. ETH is too slow to develop their consensus model, other crypto's will come close to overtaking it, and they may for a brief time. 80% of the tokens in the market are ERC20 though and that means price will stay high. I think TRX will do well as they are one of the few with a working product, but initial price boosts bring in FUDsters, as they always do - Justin Sun uses some questionable marketing practices (e.g. giving 3 million to Binance as a "charity" donation...then they get listed as the first base pair of XRP). That affects price, as it should. While bitorrent is working product, the fact that its primary use is downloading pirate copied stuff will weigh on price and public opinion of crypto - we are trying to move away from all the scam/illegality perceptions. My big dark horse bet is Zilliqa, they are working with a fair few media companies with some questionable moves happening with some people making the link between ZIL and facebook's new cross border payment blockchain initiative. It takes a long time to develop your own platform, so they probably use someone else's, with what's happened at coinbase/other moves it wouldn't surprise me if this was true. Also high TPS and a blockchain 3.0 infrastructure - if that's what people call it nowadays. I left ADA out - it has loads of potential, amazing coding and team/resources, but the fact that it uses Haskell will be its downfall. Major developers are unlikely to pick it up for that reason. I remain flexible, if I see things changing and projects start picking it up/running ICO's on it instead of ETH it confirms the fact that it is an ETH killer, but I remain extremely skeptical. Still hold some, looking to sell after it's added on coinbase.
  3. Agrilax

    Real Talk- Binance XRP "base pair" listing

    I would second this. A good analogy is to think of Binance as Walmart, if Coca-Cola is popular it's great for business, people will come to their store to buy it and they take a cut/margin. If Coca-Cola goes bankrupt they will sell something else. You seem a little grumpy, cheer up it's Christmas. Also, as is common on exchanges, they may list pairings to other coins as and when necessary, just like ETH isn't paired to everything, there just wouldn't be anywhere near enough liquidity. While it may be great for price, in the long run these pairings don't really mean that much in the grand scale (if XRP achieves it's use case), banks aren't going to source liquidity via xRapid/multi-hop through 6 different sh*tcoins, regulations and fiat channels will do that - so just enjoy the small pump in price.
  4. Agrilax

    The Next Wave

    Did you copy/paste this from somewhere? I would kind of disagree but someone correct me if I am wrong. Liquidity is not about price stability, but about how quickly you can buy/sell your asset and is very dependant on volume. For example, all the traders flock to Bitcoin because it has the highest volume in the crypto world, which means you can get in/out of huge positions with little difficulty, but volatility can still be high. If volume is low, large buy/sell orders can move the price a lot, or in severe circumstances you may not even have a buyer, and the asset is known as illiquid. A good example is the housing market, very illiquid and can take a long time to sell your house, but volatility is very low as there is major price concistency between comparable houses in that area, and illiquidity does not always = volatility.
  5. Agrilax

    Daily FXT (Ripple 96% Long)

    Correct me if I am wrong...but I would look at this as a contrarian indicator. If ~96% of the clients are long in that market, while it does highlight the positive investor sentiment in that asset, it isn't really driving price up and is probably currently acting to maintain it above the support levels. These ratios change quite quickly/frequently, and shorts have also dipped below ATH, so any short squeeze will be subdued in comparison with ETH/BTC who have shorts near ATH. TLDR; This shows traders/investors are positive, but if prices dip again and drop below support this can weight on XRP price more heavily than other top crypto's and any potential short squeeze will probably see us XRP having smaller gains. I would be far more confident if price was holding up where it is/showing some bullishness with shorts at ATH, as you would know any rally still has lots of legs left.
  6. Agrilax

    xRapid Simulation?

    How do you code in/define investor sentiment and psychology - i.e. How do traders/investors react to a sudden spike in volume? Also, how do you model the consequential portfolio reallocation and entry into the crypto market from the more traditional equity/bond/commodity markets? The simple buy/sell order book equation is easy to model. How do you model sell and buy pressure after, let's say a 200% rally? I think you approach the question in a manner that is too simplistic, thus the model would get you nowhere near real world scenarios.
  7. The more shorts the bigger the eventual short squeeze when prices find a bottom and bounce a few %, as people have to cover in panic or face potentially higher losses. You have to buy XRP from the open market to cover shorts, this buying pressure causes price to rise even more thus creating a positive feedback loop when shorts are really high - this happens in all markets, the best example this year was the VIX explosion in February after having record shorts. The fact that shorts on XRP dropped means that people bought XRP to cover - but the price didn't really jump, which is actually bearish and IF shorts go back up to resume their correlation with increasing BTC/ETH shorts the XRP price dip will be more severe. This is the problem with all these dodgy crypto news sites, almost anyone can post on them and 99% of the people have no idea what they are talking about.
  8. Agrilax

    This is fine.

    I like the title, quite appropriate...
  9. Agrilax

    SEC Statement on Crypto - 11.16.18

    I was of the impression that IBM built a cross-border money transfer service that can use digital currencies for settlement purposes, with Stellar being the default digital asset. However, other digital assets can be used for settlement (I don't follow Stellar too closely, but form memory this was the state of play, someone correct me if wrong). I would imagine liquidity will be important in destination corridor when choosing which asset is used for settlement by customers if this platform starts gaining any traction. At the moment XRP is miles ahead on the liquidity front, of course things can change quickly.
  10. Agrilax

    SEC Statement on Crypto - 11.16.18

    I know this is an XRP forum, but I do have serious questions about how all this sounds for Stellar... They have an SDEX (unlike Ether, which we know has been said is probably not a security), where you can actually buy/sell XLM for other ICO's which may/may not be securities...
  11. Agrilax

    Ripple IS working with the U.N. - Proof?

    I don't think it's meant to mean anything, it's just a tongue-in-cheek comment of him not seeing any direct links at all, a bit of a joke if anything that direct, concrete non-tinfoil links between anything BG123 has said are hard to see. At least that's how I interpreted that comment. As in the first rally was from $0.006, and extrapolated from there in a linear fashion would require a multiplication factor of x313.
  12. Agrilax

    Ripple IS working with the U.N. - Proof?

    Multiply by 313 each time.
  13. Agrilax

    Ripple IS working with the U.N. - Proof?

    I didn't know where the best place to post this was but... https://www.silverdoctors.com/silver/silver-news/french-analyst-someone-is-cornering-the-silver-market-to-cause-a-silver-shortage/ What is interesting is, this guy is talking about COMEX rule No. 589, how it allows COMEX to stop markets during illiquid times/market moves, and how this rule will work opposite to what its intended to do, which is stabilise a volatile market. Now I'm not really a fan of conspiracy theories, I just like to gather information and make sense of it, but could this be what BG123 was alluding to with his $589 prediction? Maybe it is not even an accurate price prediction per se (no one knows where the exact price of an asset will be - but the high number does probably indicate a surge in value) so the choice of number is obviously meant with a meaning, and it is an indication of how the whole thing will play out in the markets. This is less strong evidence as it could just be some random troll, but I will just leave this here: Would also like to mention how someone on here a few days ago was posting screenshots of how reiss bank/some bank in Canada were connecting via RippleNet to the SWIFT network through an MT103 socket to settle in 20sec.
  14. Agrilax

    Are you thinking what I am thinking?

    To me, this actually sounds like a slight negative. What is one of the main reasons people have flocked into crypto? It allows the average non-accredited investor to place capital in promising start-up companies that would previously have been impossible to do under current SEC rules. Look at the top 100 crypto's (or even beyond) and ask the question, do these projects actually need a coin or was it simply created to allow funding for that start up, and thus the project was adapted in some way to incorporate the coin? I would say in 80-90%+ cases this is the only reason the coin exists. What does this mean? It will severely limit the amount of money coming into crypto via small investors as many companies will opt to not go the crypto route, as they can now raise money via alternate means without having to forcefully find a use case for a coin that investors have previously poured money into. The echo chamber here can sometimes be overwhelming...not every piece of news is positive, and I am picking up absolutely nothing positive from this, it is a realisation by the SEC that the current non-public investment model is broken, and that crypto has filled that niche in the market and is one of many reasons money has poured into the space as funding for entrepreneurs is much easier to obtain.
  15. Agrilax

    Ripple IS working with the U.N. - Proof?

    The prophecy of BG123 is near completion. Plans within plans within plans...?? But seriously, not that I believe any of that stuff it is eerily well lined up with his predictions.