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tar

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About tar

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    https://blog.anep-economics.org/?lang=en

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    economics (esp. monetary theory), law, history, politics, ethnology
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    .de
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    Germany

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  1. No update since 50 minutes...? Something is rotten in the state of Denmark.
  2. If you block an amount of a particular asset for any kind of emission (of a stablecoin) there is no workaround (instead of price fixing from the government) to supress the volatlitity of this asset/backing. You can - and that is what I read out of your answer - block at most more of this asset than would actually be necessary at the time of valuation in order to suppress a significant impact of its volatility on the emission, which means that you would (need to) block a much higher amount of variable valued XRP in order to ensure a halfway sufficient backing of the fixed valued emission (of the stablecoin) which unfortunately still would not be sufficient to garantuee a permanently safe backing as history proves. This is one of the most fundamental problems regarding emissions and financial crises, central banks policy, etc. - and the reason why there actually is no "stable" asset of any kind (and therefore no safe stablecoin, ofc). Usually, the issuer should deliver the corresponding collateral, otherwise its issue loses value. Afterwards, the issuer/market would have to be constantly or regularly audited in order to ensure that his backing is sufficient over time. What happens, if it is not sufficient anymore? Are there any kinds of sanctions involved?
  3. @JoelKatz As far as I understood, someone locks a particular amount of XRP into his ledger account and therefore would be able to issue a "stablecoin" which is backed by XRP and therefore is only stable regarding a particular XRP amount (which he locked) but not towards other assets (and therefore currencies among them). Lets call this "stablecoin" "XRPS". The first obvious question that arises is: Where is the advantage over using XRP directly? Isn't pathfinding already considering the available amounts of XRP on the ledger accounts? What would be the difference? If you talk about other "stablecoins" that are collateralized by other assets (like USDT) several more questions arise: 1) Where are those "stablecoins" issued exactly? As you know, the issuer has to be a private organisation which is accountable/liable and therefore the ledger of those particular private party has to be used/included. Otherwise you are just creating XRPS on the XRP ledger. 2) How is the constant volatile price development between XRP (and therefore XRPS) and the alien "stablecoin" compensated?
  4. 1. Speculators buy (back) at the bottom line (high demand at new low) as they expect the price bounces back to the upper wedge line. Therefore it is less likely that the wedge will break downwards. 2. The top line is also decreasing but not as much as the bottom line which means that the overall asset has to get more attension from the market (volume rises) to form a broadening wedge (higher demand at lower tops). As soo as the higher demand of 2. exceeds the higher demand of 1. the wedge is broken upwards resulting in a re-buy (fomo) of the speculators of 1. which further increases the demand of 2.
  5. The FED already rised the overnight repo to 100 bio and doubled the short term repo from 30 to 60 bio: https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/domestic-market-operations/monetary-policy-implementation/repo-reverse-repo-agreements/repurchase-agreement-operational-details
  6. I did in my analysis - and by the way, Alex did not count Elliott Waves but refered to BTC halving.
  7. Bullsh!t from a chicken ranch!? Man, I heard that they feed hormons to chickens, but that must be some real hard anabolica there.
  8. I think the next (last?) big impulse cycle for Bitcoin will end around December 2023. Historically this would also correlate to the doubling timeframes and decrease of growth (rough estimate): 2010 -> 2011: 10 months (0.07 USD to 29.60 USD = rise of 42,186 %) 2011 -> 2013: 20 months (29.60 USD to 1,147 USD = rise of 3,775 %) 2013 -> 2017: 48 months (1,147 USD to 19,343 USD = rise of 1,586 %) 2017- > 2023: 72? months (19,343 USD to approx. 150,000 USD = rise of 675 %) You can nearly always count something The complex part are the correction waves (ABCDE, WXY, etc.) which I avoid to count. Perhaps something like this (and I am a bit worried now as with this counting a further correction for BTC seems not so "less likely" as I assumed earlier, but I could be wrong, you know ): The thing is, if correction wave IV already ended at the yellow (A) (shortly before the 2019 mark) it would contradict 2 principles: usually correction wave 2 and 4 diverge usually wave 4 ends around former sub-wave 4 (the white arrow points this out) But corrections can become complex, so who knows. Hmzly.... I think I am totally wrong here... missing data from 2008/09 - do not take this too serious
  9. I also think BTC will decrease to around 8,200-8,300 USD in the next weeks (end of wave 2) but then wave 3 of the new cycle begins (target 60,000+ USD - could take over a year). Check the green fib zone BTCUSD is at the moment: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/xhekyZKX-Lost-Years-Scenario/ The other scenarios are less likely: Therefore I think it is a mix of both. A catch up of XRPBTC until wave 2 of BTCUSD is finished and a parallel rise of BTCUSD and XRPUSD afterwards (esp. after April 2020) with slight corrections of XRPBTC.
  10. My neutral path with bullish expectencies for XRPBTC:
  11. I have been wrong here, e.g., and with the Chuvashov fork but until we break immensively below 2(!) cents I do not see that I am wrong for my actual overall prediction
  12. I think you are a bit confused about exact predictions. There is none and by the way: I did not call ~115 USD in 2021 but showed the channel building of the final C (4) wave and therefore the possible upper and lower boundaries of the whole final wave 5 (which could end as a truncated fifth which I even mentioned some posts above) and the following ABC correction (which likely aligns with subwave 4 of wave 5). So why in gods name would <4 USD until mid of 2021 not align with the bottom of even the optimistic upward channel I posted before or with my newer more pessimistic channel where I showed the channel building?
  13. Long term outlook: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XRPUSD/J5kWzBPd-XRP-Ripple-YEAR-2040/
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