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Everything posted by Plikk

  1. No confirmation yet, but if it continues upwards 45% is indeed a good target to watch. I think much depends on the FED meeting tomorrow: risk on or risk off. Alts are in the first category.
  2. You have drawn it as a descending triangle, which 70% of the time breaks downwards. Judging from fractals, BTC.D should break downwards too. But I haven’t been as busy charting as of late, I was wrong on 4y cycle theory and have sincethen been working on the leghtened cycle theory which caught all my time. Looks like we are in a running flat correction, which is nothing new for crypto. If the general markets remain up, I expect BTC and alts to end parabolic as they always have. Pressure is building, spring is loading, it’s simply how these markets work. But remain cautious nonetheless, I have sufficiently hedged all my positions.
  3. BTC dominance is currently breaking out of a bullish falling wedge and has formed a giant Inverse Head and Shoulders which often signals a reversal. At least for the short term it is what I expect. I don’t think I agree with people like BCB that alt season will come right now, I actually expect BTC will recover soon and alts will not follow it going parabolic. If we are in a lengthened cycle, which it is starting to look like more and more, alt season would have to wait as well. Coming days will tell, things can change fast but this is what it looks like right now to me. If BTC goes below 40% Dominance it would invalidate the above scenario. As always the charts never lie and I remain open minded to any scenario. But If this plays out: The bad news is that we have to wait probably some more months for alts to moon The good news is that lagging alts(like xrp and many many others) will get way more time to catch up and potentially go up way harder than if they would blast off right about now. Furthermore, I don’t think the bearmarket has started, but I am less bullish than before. In the May-August dip, in which I was one of the few whom remained bullish all the way through, it was an easier call. BTC structurally has not signaled it is in a bearmarket yet, and as long as important lvls hold or wil be reclaimed (53k is very important) the chances increase we get a lengthened cycle. But if BTC starts to lose about 40k, it would be invalidated and bearmarket here we come. But it is too soon to tell, the sole reason that so few alts have moved this year, gives hope the steam is not yet out of the market. I have personally derisked a small part of my portfolio some time back, but I have plenty skin in the game left which will patiently await until their set targets get hit either in this bullmarket or the next.
  4. You started with a pretty aggressive attitude towards my neutral observation. Never heard of spoofing or false exchange data/washing? It is so common in crypto those data points you refer to are often misleading. The ‘made up’ trendline has held support exactly where it should. Not saying it can’t reverse from here, but waving it away as non-sense and claiming exchange data is a better measure is plain wrong IMO. We’ll indeed leave it at this, we’re simply on a whole other page and an endless discussion between us is undesirable.
  5. They also told you to sell the bottom and flip full-blown bearish during a bullmarket correction? Oh please, you have made enough fun of yourself as is.
  6. I am talking about trendline and fib support. Which hasn’t been lost yet, but it’s close.
  7. If BTC doesn’t hold this level, a move back down to at least 42k is what I expect.
  8. You’ll never hit the exact top or bottom, don’t try to. Having multiple sell targets reliefs you from pressure and minimizes risk to miss out on any gains(or to sell panicked in a dip). It’s all up to you when to sell
  9. Yes, the end of cycle run will commence soon. Madness across the board and gains in our pockets.
  10. 15$ is a possibility, but I would certainly sell a large portion way before that. Fib target of 2018-2020 point to 9-13 USD this cycle, and that is if everything goes smooth. More recent fib targets is where I would sell to get at least your original investment back to feel comfortable and let the rest ride for 9-13. Maybe leave a small part for if we get a Doge like endgame(unlikely, but possible)
  11. ADA showing the way. Prepare for massive volatility, i.e. parabolic rises with quick hard corrections in between. Wouldn’t surprise me to see ADA correct soon, but it will be bought up massively. Have your sell targets ready, soon wil be the time to take profits and pull out the majority of your investment before the end of this cycle. Last thing I want is to live through another bearmarket of 3 years. Between oct-jan will probably be the time most coins hit their ATH. Most of my buys which were ridiculed over and over again in the midst of the correction, are now 80%+ up already. Love it. Exciting times ahead. Don’t get caught up in euphoria, hold and sell when your targets hit and don’t look back. That has proven over and over again to be the most profitable strategy in crypto. Good luck!
  12. Back on topic. BTC nearing heavy resistance. Let’s hope for a break through this time, I remain cautious around this area.
  13. 60% has been a longer consolidation period for dominance, so that would be a pretty logical target. It mostly depends on if we do get a massive alt season, crash and fleeing to BTC again at the end of the cycle. Maybe this time around, people rather flee into DeFi and actually earn passive income during a bearmarket, further diminishing BTC’s importance.
  14. Yes, 12-15% is my target. We’ve seen 36% in the last cycle, It seems only logical with the amount of new successful alts and BTC focus shift to ETH, that dominance will get struck down to such levels. People and businesses are starting to appreciate actual functionality over blockchain SoV hype. Remember it is a target, it can get hit in a day and mark the bottom, then shoot back up to 30%+ in a matter of days/weeks. That’s what I expect.
  15. As soon as dominance loses the blue lvl, I expect it to go down fast. So far everything going pretty much as expected. I am excited for the next couple of months, but especially look forward to the end of this year. It will probably remain a rocky road ahead with plenty of scary corrections. But this was probably the worst and most scary one and I’m glad the market is recovering as anticipated. Shared this some time back, seems to be playing out perfectly. But let’s wait and see if we do get a real breakdown on the dominance, it could still show resilience.
  16. Now battling around the 0.5 fib. If BTC can retake the .786 around 56.5k we’re good to go at new ATH’s. Dominance so far being rejected, if we get a 2017 similar move, we’ll soon see alts shoot up ferociously.
  17. Some bearish diverg. on the daily. Could be we need a little cool-off time.
  18. Bullmarket back in full swing confirmed IMO. 21 weekly ema flipped support as a boss.
  19. 21 weekly EMA is the level I watch, recapture that and then the bullmarket is back in full swing.
  20. Thank you. I do have to admit my approach in counter argumenting both the trolls and genuine bears wasn’t always very tactful or refined, but when people get under my skin it is not always possible to remain the gentleman. But enough about that, weak hands are now either gone or will scream SELL at the next red candle again and remain ignorant about the true nature of financial markets, which simply moves in waves and cycles. A few months of deep red during a clear macro uptrend, is no reason to get so extremely bearish and expect the market to keep going down. Bottoms are found in depressed downturns, tops are found in euphoria. Fingers crossed I have indeed judged this market correctly once again and hopefully many people in here will be able to profit immensely throughout the remainder of the year. We’re all in the same boat after all. Good luck to us all
  21. A few months of drawturn and consolidation doesn’t make a bearmarket or confirm a long term trend. Weak hands have been shaken out and market is returning the bullish trend as it should(cycle and fundamental wise). This is the trend I see unfolding and BTC dominance is headed towards 12% IMO. Very bullish on alts for the remainder of the year, the bigger the dump the higher te pump. We are in for a treat later this year, if you can remain patient and don’t get shaken out by fear and market noise. Bullmarket in crypto aint easy at all, as you can see it is very hard to remain bullish during a few months of deep red and retail investors complaining and with constant fearmongering. Luckily the market moves on a trend but also in waves. We had over 6-8 months of upwards waves, now 2 months of downward waves. We are still within a bullish trend until this cycle ends, bears will deny it until we make a new ATH probably, but if we can maintain a clear and broad vision and perspective, it’s pretty darn clear where this market is headed next. I give it about 1-2 months to recover and then 3 months to pump to ATH and way beyond. Then it’s time to sell or live through another bearmarket. But that bearmarket is certainly not here yet!
  22. The ‘worst’ was in terms of many coins not reaching ATH or come even close, but indeed there were plenty opportunities to make money around the market. The bullcycle is still not lost as long as we hold that 28k. So far, dips keep being bought up and bearish pressure seems to be fading. Usually when all seems lost, the market turns on itself. Hopefully we’re close to that moment Or we’ll keep dwindling down and I was wrong all along. We’ll see, I am still fully long.
  23. Well we lost 30k and 28k is now the last hope we’ve got. If we loose that as well, we have witnessed the shortest and worst bullrun in history of crypto. And most of all: the most selective. Only a handful of alts and especially meme coins and certain newer projects have truly mooned, most have not even taken back their 2017 ATH’s. Really tough market to read and do TA on right now, cycle and history wise we should hold and go up again. But looking at our rejections at MA’s ever since the dump, we could be in a prolonged bear period. I remain hopeful, but it’s no easy time to be long in crypto.
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