DreXRP reacted to jbjnr in Q1 postmortem analysis and Q2 speculation
Dear XRPChat, I had planned on making another prediction of Q1 sales before the quarterly report came out, but unfortunately, my day job has been keeping me very busy so I didn't have the time needed to attend to it - and I had problems with my analysis that I didn't understand and that I hope I have rectified now. In my previous posts Analysis of Ripple's XRP sales and 2018 Q4 analysis, I summed payments from wallets to XRP-II to see what the quarterly payments were, and to total them up to see if they matched the sales figures announced by ripple. I had expected to do the same for Q1 2019, but the numbers looked wrong, my correlations were not consistent and the sales figures as a % of coinmarketcap volume didn't look right. I have extensively rewritten (and improved) my software and now have new findings that I feel confident enough about to share them.
First, lets remind ourself of daily sales by ripple - in previous threads I found a strong correlation between yesterday's trading volume on coinmarketcap and today's sales (transfers) to the XRP-II distribution wallet. I identified 4 wallets that appeared to sum to about the right amount to explain the sales figures in the quarterly reports. Those wallets were referred to as RP1, RP2, RP3 and RP9. I refer the interested reader to the links above to find further details. If we plot the daily payments from those 4 wallets into the XRP-II wallet (XRP-II being the legal entity licensed to sell XRP to exchanges and customers and is presumably responsible for the programmatic daily sales as well as any number of other sales that we know little about). Here's what the sales look like from April 2018 until today, Note the line plot (linear, left y axis) is the sum of all the individual payments represented by dots that are logarithmically plotted (right axis). I found a strong correlation between the sum of payments and the coinmarketcap exchange volume, scaled by a factor that was around the 3% mark.
I was intrigued by the drop in sales around mid Sept 2018 that preceeded a large jump in price and volume a week later. My hypothesis was that the drop in sales might be responsible for part of the rise in price (supply/demand). The sales pattern continued, largely unchanged until this year, though there are many wallets that transfer into XRP-II and they change over time, so it is difficult to be certain as to the true nature/volume or reason for the sales taking place. Please be aware that the graph above shows payments INTO the XRP-II wallet, and not out - this is because there are many more payments out and I was trying to identify that portion of sales that represents the daily programmatic sales. For the reasons I've just mentioned, it's too hard to be certain of any motives for individual wallet payments, so instead, I shall focus on payments OUT of XRP-II.
Let's have a look at another plot, this time I plot all transfers OUT of XRP-II going into exchange accounts. I am grateful for the google sheet provided by @Silkjaer for a list of wallets that I have used for my assumptions of exchange addresses.
You can immediately see that the payments to exchanges is very numerous. The summed total is shown by the solid line and the axes are consistent with the first plot. The totals also follow the same pattern as the sales into XRP-II from the subset of wallets, but is much higher as we are now including other payments from other wallets that are passed through and then go on to exchanges.
Let's now show a more interesting graph - this has plots of the total exchange volume from coinmarketcap in green, I have normalized the plot to have the same area under it as the summed total of payments into XRP-II with a time shift of 1 day to show the correlation of the two graphs. The lighter blue line is the RP1,2,3,9 payments into XRP-II and the darker blue line is the summed payments out to exchanges. You should hopefully be able to see that the correlation between XRP-II payments and exchange volume is very strong, however, the correlation starts to break down in Q1 2019 and deteriorates further in Q2 2019 - the reason why my earlier correlation plots failed to give (to me) satisfying results.
I have highlighted 3 regions on this plot. The first is in Sept 2018 (grey bar) when the sales from XRP-II virtually stopped. I speculated at the time that the xrp price (shown in the above plot as the black solid line) dropped to a low value for the year and probably ripple wanted to support the price by holding off sales temporarily. If that was the plan, then it worked very well as there was a massive jump at the end of Sept that still defies any reasonable explanation. So many news announcements are constantly being made about partnerships with ripple and events taking place that it is hard to know what might have triggered the rise.
The second (grey bar) highlighted region in the plot is in May of this year - the difference between the green (coinmarketcap) and blue lines become very clear. Ripple shut down sales significantly again this month, and we have seen the price rise from ~30c to ~40c. I begin to wonder if my earlier hypothesis might have been correct, but sadly, two events is not enough for a 5 sigma announcement!
What else is interesting in the plot? - the red shaded rectangle represents a point where the price of bitcoin was pumping hard, the exchange volume for all coins soared, but the price of XRP did not move very much. Why is that - we can see that the two blue lines rise well above the green one as ripple increased sales significantly - I speculate that they did not wish to see the price shoot up as we saw in Dec 2017, only to fall down again after the pump/dump/fomo/madness was over.
Another interesting piece of data is revealed in the plot - the red crosses are payments from exchange accounts BACK to XRP-II - this hardly ever happened in 2018, except for a few scattered points in the year and a cluster of them around Sept 2018 when the sales halted. It is my second hypothesis that ripple have changed strategy during Q1. Prior to this, we see an almost constant sale of XRP proportional to exchange volume, during Q1, particularly after Feb 2019, the sales deviate from a simple pattern and we see returns from exchanges back to XRP-II. It would appear that their algorithm is smarter now and is trying to adapt better to market fluctuations rather than just continuously sell every day.
Do we have any way of corroborating this? well, I'm glad you asked. Here's another graph, this time I take a sliding window of 10 days worth of data from XRP-II sales, and the same 10 day window of data from coinmarketcap exchange volume and correlate them, normalize them and plot the scaling coefficient. This gives us the XRP-II sales as a % fraction of the coinmarketcap volume in a running plot and we can see the fluctuation in sales as time progresses. The solid line shows the closing price of XRP, the two dotted lines are the running scale coefficients of the daily % of sales from XRP-II - the red is RP1,2,3,9 the green is ALL payments from exchanges (subtracting the return payments shown by the red crosses in the plot above).
Now we can see quite clearly the event in Sept 2018 and the massive drop in may 2019. what is now apparent is Feb-May 2019 there was a large increase in sales as a % of daily volume. Throughout 2018, the red line holds reasonably closely to 0.15% of daily sales, which is fairly consistent with the figures quoted in the ripple quarterly reports. In Q1, things start deviating, and Q2 is all over the place. The drops in Sep 2018 and May 2019 are both followed by XRP price rallies. I added a dottet line at 0.05% of sales just to show how low the sales have dipped.
What do I conclude from this...
Ripple have changed their selling strategy to better adapt to market conditions and during March/April they increased quite significantly the sales, presumably to smooth out market pump/dump peaks and troughs. Financial institutions do not want like price fluctuations as it increases their cost of holdings - something we should all be grateful for as we want banks to buy in, not run away. Price fluctuations can also increase lay-off costs for market makers which also negatively impacts the market. (We're in this for the long play after all). There has been a slight decoupling over the last month or two with BTC as sales from XRP-II have been historically speaking very high. The large volumes we've seen did not move the price as much as one would have expected. Now would be a great time to pump XRP if whales are reading this! with XRP-II sales very low, it will be easier to move the market. Please go ahead and do this if you can. I'd like to see how high you can push XRP EDIT: I forgot to add one point - why do I think that sales have dropped in recent days? My suspicion (pure speculation) is that with the bear market seemingly coming to an end, Ripple feel safer in allowing the price to rise slightly to accommodate the new corridors they are adding.
All the data has been collected here by a random amateur on the internet. I do not even know for sure if the wallets I examine belong to XRP-II. I do not know for sure if the exchange address I use are correct. All the data in this article could be wrong. I might have even made it up just for giggles (I didn't but how do you know? Do you trust me?) This is not investment advice. But IMHO price rises are more likely when XRP-II sales are low.
DreXRP got a reaction from hallwaymonitor in Adding Value to Cross-Border Payments Is Why MoneyNetInt Runs on Ripple
Nice read, thanks @hallwaymonitor, excited to see more from MoneyNet
DreXRP reacted to Julian_Williams in Increase in small - medium payments - [Galgitron]
THANK YOU @JannaOneTrick This is the most exciting thread!
There is now no doubt that something happened about 17 Feb since when there has been a steady growth.
The growth of the ultra low value yellow band (20 - 1500 XRP)
17 Feb - 04 May (45 days was + 7k)
14- 24 May (10 days was + 4.5k )
It will be interesting to see if this exponential trend of growth gathers pace?
It seems there was some pause in the growth for the few days before 14 may and followed by a dramatic acceleration since 24 May? Statistical noise or a new corridor being opened up? This is now also reflected in the stats for the more valuable blue and green bands of 15K to 150k (1,500 - 150,000K) transactions with the same acceleration points..
The growth of the low value Blue band (1,500 - 15,000 XRP)
17 Feb - 04 May (45days was + 3k)
14- 24 May (10 days was + 2.5k )
The growth of the medium value green band (15,000 - 150,000XRP) is showing the same trends and seems to have risen from 1,250 - 2.500 over the whole of this same time period
I am not mathematician, can someone extrapolate any prediction from this? (maybe we need more data)
DreXRP got a reaction from Cesar1810 in Adding Value to Cross-Border Payments Is Why MoneyNetInt Runs on Ripple
Nice read, thanks @hallwaymonitor, excited to see more from MoneyNet
DreXRP reacted to hallwaymonitor in Adding Value to Cross-Border Payments Is Why MoneyNetInt Runs on Ripple
Money shot right here: “We’re also seeing increased demand for instant payments and are looking forward to using the digital asset XRP to source on-demand liquidity during transactions on RippleNet.”
DreXRP got a reaction from dreventures in [VIDEO] Addressing common misconceptions on Ripple & XRP
Nice to see you here again @dreventures, love your videos
DreXRP reacted to nikb in Tiffany Hayden
Your whole post is just a thinly veiled attempt to insinuate (though I’m not sure to what end) and it sickens me.
What does Tiffany’s or my personal life have any bearing or relevance?
Why should my employment status have any kind of impact on Tiffany and her ability to operate a server or limit the things she can experiment with, like and/or support?
And as for David’s comments, I share his point of view and I see nothing strange about them.
DreXRP reacted to Tinyaccount in Tiffany Hayden
Then I hope they read this....
Your mum appears to be one of those few people who have both convictions AND courage. It must be very difficult to be continually under attack, but some people, and your mum is one, are able to take a hard hit and keep on keeping on.
I am the exact opposite in nearly every way. I would never want to be a spokesperson for anything. I avoid limelight and confrontation equally. I lack the resilience required to stand up for anything.
I don’t follow Tiffany closely, or know all her views and positions, so I’m not saying I agree with everything... ( I don’t know what I would be agreeing with ) and I’m not really a fan of twitter or social media in general.
But I’ve seen some very unfair and inaccurate attacks on Tiffany, and just wanted to say I agree with the general principle that there is no need for infighting. One thing I have seen in the crypto space is that many of the very worst characters are often the most vocal and vicious. (I’m not referring to this thread.. I refer to past examples on Twitter). It’s apparently inevitable that if you put yourself out there... the haters will come.
That post from Tiffany that I partly quoted was one of the most well written, and honest posts that I’ve seen for a long time. Well done Tiffany.
DreXRP reacted to TiffanyHayden in Tiffany Hayden
I think it's strange how much people care about this. After carrying kids around on my right hip for so long, I am used to using my left hand for things. Since I don't actually have a camera crew that follows me around, that's how left-handed pictures turn out. I don't like posting pictures of myself nearly as much as people like to chide me for. I don't like it all. I hate it. Try and find a picture of me in my 20's or even in my early 30's. Do you think any woman thinks "Now that I'm 41, it feels like a good time to start taking pictures of myself to share online in a predominantly (young) male industry, filled with vitriol, that scrutinizes every breath I take, and actively hates me?" No. I do it DESPITE that. Contrary to what dude's with middle-aged, single mom fetishes may think, I post pictures for the women. Like attracts like. I want to be visibly present and this is the best that I can do. People who like to talk about all of the attention I crave are never able to explain why, then, have I turned down every single interview request over the years? I push myself to be as personable as I can be because I want to be understood and I want to be visible to the other "regular people" in the world.
Agreed. I was embarrassed at some of the comments and behavior coming from XRP supporters. It would be analogous to one flavor of Bitcoin making fun of another flavor of Bitcoin because their mempool was full. Same thing could happen to you, dude. Even more importantly, those people failed to recognize that the Stellar network SUCCEEDED, as designed, and stopped forward progress until it was safe. That was a victory for anyone championing Consensus over PoW.
Thank you for this.
Up until recently, I have never *only* liked XRP. One of the main features of the XRPL that originally attracted me to it is that it's currency agnostic.
I am uncomfortably open about things so people don't have to speculate. I try really hard to do the right thing, knowing full well that not only are strangers online watching closely and judging, but my 2 kids as well. They are teenagers now and I have to atone for all that I do. They read every word written about me.
I am sad at the way Bitcoin turned out. I didn't get involved in crypto to make a financial investment. I have always been poor. When the financial/housing crisis hit, I had a baby and a toddler and I felt terrified and helpless. The houses on every side of me went into foreclosure. They stayed empty for a long time. When somebody bought the house next door, they bought it for $12,000. When learned about Bitcoin, I latched on like it was a life raft. This is the Bitcoin that I was out evangelizing for:
The entire article is good but it turned out to be ********. I was hopeful when Bitcoin forked that there was a chance to salvage it, but then Craig Wright showed up and there was just more infighting than I have the energy and capacity for, mostly because being an XRP supporter has been so damn taxing as well. And it's gotten worse lately.
Nonstop **** like this. I don't know why, but as crypto enthusiasts poor into this space and grow in their knowledge, thoughts and reasoning, new XRP supporters have taken a different route, embracing ignorance and deciding to hunt cartoon bears and create conspiracies instead.
Jed reached out to me, in a sincere way, because he felt misjudged by me and wanted a chance to be heard. I have no reason to hate him and everything he touches into eternity. Life is short and I don't enjoy fighting with people or holding onto hate. The second news broke about Steller and IBM, everybody was trying to make it sound like a loss for Ripple/XRP. Good news for Stellar doesn't mean bad news for Ripple and vice versa. I'm not willing to spend one second getting into an XLM/XRP ******* match. And I don't want to participate in the cheering that goes on whenever another project stumbles.
I learn by doing and I'm here to learn.
Because, for the most part, if one of you gets screwed over, nobody will care. I have a small platform and try to use it to amplify the voices that don''t get heard.
I disagree. Neither my opinion of Ripple nor XRP has changed. It's because I am secure and feel confident in XRP that I don't feel the need to hate everything that isn't XRP.
There are lots of cool projects popping up everyday. I think it's exciting and I definitely want to be a part of it. I don't view crypto as a spectator sport.
DreXRP reacted to Chris_Reeves in Reiterating Patience and Ripple's Goal
Some new members here and with the most recent price action I'm sure everyone is on edge so I wanted to recap the goal of Ripple and how they're focused on their product suite. Ultimately, everyone wants large US banks to get onto the system and they may eventually but that's not what Ripple cares about currently. Their attack is 3-fold:
1. Develop their product suite and the XRPL to be unparalleled in execution: They do this with a focus on more interoperabilty between their different product lines (xVia, xCurrent, xRapid). See xCurrent 4.0. Also, they're focused on improving the XRPL through the development of Cobalt, an upgrade that moves the transaction times from 3-4 seconds to less than 1 second, significantly improving on-chain TPS.
2. Grow liquidity through partnership with exchanges in unique corridors: Everyone wants to see the major fiat pairings of the world receive significant xRapid volume (USD, EUR, RMB, etc..) but in reality Ripple's goal is to attack areas that have significantly less liquidity than the major pairs. This is why you see such partnerships with the Middle Eastern and Eastern Asian countries currently. They have more favorable regulations and have some of the largest pain points when it comes to fiat liquidity. This allows the removal of correspondent banking as we know it which will drastically change the economic landscape of these countries. The larger pairs will come at the end.
3. Develop the XRPL Ecosystem: With the creation of Coil, xPring and the partnership with R3, Ripple is positioning the XRP Ledger to facilitate a myriad of use cases while they can maintain a laser focus on point 1. Let other business leaders focus on growing new use cases and products while Ripple continues to work on their cross border remittance software.
All of these will pay huge dividends down the road as competition increases in this space and other companies begin to catch up to the product development that Ripple already has in production (Hyperledger being the most obvious competitor right now). Ripple has the luxury of a 5ish year head start on their competition and I believe that this lead will allow them to expand their partnerships to the point that other competitors will work to find a way to integrate into their systems using the XRPL instead of directly competing. See the current SWIFT model; companies don't try to compete with SWIFT, they try to develop solutions around this product to help the endpoints. This is what I expect to see within the cross border space as well.
In saying all of this, I expect this to be a 5-10 year play on Ripple's expansion into this space as regulations pave the way for this new asset class to facilitate a true change in global economics.
DreXRP reacted to Julian_Williams in Price potential of XRP
The team at Ripple, R3 and other businesses managing the success of XRP do not care about your investment or disappointment. I would guess they are over the moon about developments over the last 18 months. They have a job to do and they are doing a good job. I don't think the current slow progress of XRP relative to other very different crypto currencies really bothers them or upsets their business plans.
It seems your analysis is entirely driven by your disappointment with the price of XRP which has then turned into pessimism and finally anger and scatological abuse towards the thing you perceive to have underperformed and not given you the instant gratification you expected from it. Those were your priorities. If you really want to chase the assets on the basis of recent performance you should work at your TA skills, which would require you to give up any emotional connection with your investments and become an expert in spreading your risk and opportunistically investing the dips and selling the highs.
My personal expectations about price are that they will explode at some point in the future. Personally I am very happy with the performance of XRP and the work of the many teams developing the XRP ecosystem. If the price is only $5 in five years I would still accept that as having been a very good investment in a very worthwhile project that provides services for all sorts of people, many of them in poor undeveloped countries.
DreXRP reacted to Hodor in Ripple XRP Will be Used as FX Means of Settlement Instead of US Dollar – Wall Street Forum
Wow that's an impressive quote, but I'm having trouble sourcing the video. Does anybody have the link to the source video that the author is talking about? I'd like to review it on my own as well.
All three comments to the article online are asking for the same thing - the source for the article, but I don't see it.
DreXRP reacted to cryptoxrp in Ripple XRP Will be Used as FX Means of Settlement Instead of US Dollar – Wall Street Forum
"The forum agreed unanimously that Ripple XRP will become a means of Foreign Exchange settlement instead of the US Dollar. The reason for this conclusion is based on so many factors."
"Since the settlement of payment in XRP is faster than the dollar, the forum believes XRP will be used as the settlement currency in the next five years."
DreXRP reacted to kenrino in Launching a New Remittance Corridor from Saudi Arabia to India
DreXRP reacted to Julian_Williams in XRapid CLICKBAIT CLAIM?? Ripple Pushes Its XRP-Powered xRapid Solution to Argentina and Brazil
Can this really be taken as an announcement? I think it comes from that Swiss seminar organised by the IMF?
Ripple Pushes Its XRP-Powered xRapid Solution to Argentina and Brazil
DreXRP reacted to Roaring_Twenties in [Ripple at an Event] International Conference on Fintech - May 22 - 23, Vienna
“In my role at Ripple I’m more interested in getting Central Bank’s feet wet with distributed ledger technology and with crypto assets, and when we have them all comfortable and happy we can then just push them all simultaneously into the xPool.”
Deleted take two of The Ripple Drop - Episode 12.