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zerpian

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  1. Thanks
    zerpian got a reaction from Hodor in A History of XRP & Ripple: Part 2 2014-2016   
    Hello @Hodor , great post again ! I just have one remark the settlement with Jed is not in absolute numbers but relative to the average volume on the XRP ledger, as was posted by Monica:
    https://forum.ripple.com/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=15885
     
  2. Thanks
    zerpian reacted to Hodor in A History of XRP & Ripple: Part 2 2014-2016   
    My history of Ripple continues through the years of 2014-2016; It covers the dramatic news stories you may have heard about, Ripple's steady progress in development, their pivot away from Codius, and the birth of Interledger.  
    The controversial topics like XRP allocation and organization shake-ups are not ignored; read through it and provide your own perspective if you were around (in crypto land) during that time frame.   Of course, extra points if you work (or previously worked) for Ripple! 
    Hope you enjoy!  Please leave any feedback below.  Also, feel free to share my blog with a friend or on any other platform - and thanks for doing so!
    Twitter Reddit r/Ripple Reddit r/CryptoCurrency Reddit r/CryptoMarkets Reddit r/xrp Reddit r/RippleTalk Bitcointalk - alt coin sub forum Bitcointalk - XRP speculation thread
  3. Like
    zerpian got a reaction from GiddyUp in 1 MegaRipple - what to call it?   
    I think we should honour JoelKatz by calling at least one unit something like Katz (sounds pretty good too).
  4. Like
    zerpian reacted to Professor Hantzen in A chart of aggregate XRP holdings by the BearWhale   
    While this data and research is interesting - no one should assume that because a particular account or group of connected accounts account is selling, no other account operated by the same entity (but as yet unconnected to these ones by researchers) is not buying or has not already bought to balance that out.

    For example, this is a high profile account - having that much XRP in one place, with all eyes on it, and given the situation of XRP having increased in value by so much since the original purchase, is flat-out a major security risk.  As such, the owner would be wise to obfuscate their ownership by running the XRP through exchanges, and selling it there, whilst simultaneously buying it again elsewhere (possibly with another currency they may have a more prudent reason to liquidate).  Then they can shovel the new XRP into cold wallets from those other exchanges (at different times, and in different amounts), to maintain their anonymity.  This is an ordinary plausible scenario, and would look exactly like this "bearwhale" behaviour, yet be indicative of an intention to continue to continue to hold a large amount of XRP, not to sell it.

    Further, any XRP on the buy side may have *already* been bought at a much cheaper price, and the whale is only selling now to rebalance to the original holding amount, possibly at a profit - and no one has any way of knowing whether the operator of the account is doing this at a profit, flat or at a loss.

    To me, the least favourable and most unlikely scenario is that someone with that much money is ending up with less XRP than they started with - at such an ill-advisable time to do that.

    If someone *was* really keen to get rid of their XRP and tank the price, it also makes no sense to meter it out slowly like this.  Just tank it in a big dump (and short on margin if they're ballsy I guess...).  They obviously care about not hurting the market too much with their moves, or they wouldn't bother doing this slowly.  It's also unlikely the trickle indicates an intention to maximise their price - if they wanted to maximise their price, they'd sell at a better time.

    I like all this research and speculation - but its important to realise that no matter how far any of us dig into the ledger, there's always the possibility of missing information that can completely turn any conclusion on their head.  As I say, given the incomplete nature of the information - and as others have observed - selling such a large amount would be unwise and make little sense right now.  That we're just seeing one side of a transfer is therefore way more likely to me.
  5. Thanks
    zerpian reacted to Chewiecoin in This Marathon is turning into a Sprint   
    You know what guys, I sit here and read all the negative, worried threads and posts and I understand that everyone is unhappy. We have a low price again at the moment. Its natural, you feel it, I feel it too. We are frustrated that our beloved investment in XRP is not blossoming? How come with all this massive real-world partnership news that the price isn't going up?
    I can't know for certain, no one does, but I have 100% belief that XRPs price will take off one day and hopefully sooner than we think. There is too much happening. Every day we get some more amazing news.
    Today its Cambridge Global confirming they are moving from xCurrent to xRapid in it testing:
    https://nilsonreport.com/publication_the_current_issue.php Yesterday, it was Ripple' very confident plans of working with Chinese Regulators and Chinese Banks, and confirmation that the Saudi Central Bank SAMA will save between $200 Million and $400 Million a year using xCurrent:
    https://www.express.co.uk/finance/city/935310/Ripple-news-ripple-cryptocurrency-news-ripple-price-china-market-latest-prediction/amp?__twitter_impression=true https://aawsat.com/english/home/article/1183761/moodys-sama-deal-ripple-provides-400-million-banks The day before we saw the news that one of Thailand's largest banks Siam Commercial Bank will by Q3 implement xRapid for Euro and Pound cross border payments:
    https://translate.google.com/translate?depth=2&hl=en&nv=1&rurl=translate.google.com&sl=auto&sp=nmt4&tl=en&u=http://www.sporbiz.co.kr/news/articleView.html%3Fidxno%3D208845&xid=25657,15700022,15700105,15700122,15700124,15700149,15700168,15700186,15700201 Or SBI announcing that they are using xCurrent for their MoneyTap app for domestic money transfers between their 61 partnered banks:
    www.ccn.com/61-japanese-banks-tap-ripple-blockchain-consumer-payments-app/ What about earlier in the week when the Financial Stability Board of the G20 and US Congress helped dispel concerns of all crypto investors that Governments do not need to fear cryptocurrency:
    https://www.ccn.com/cryptos-dont-pose-risks-to-global-financial-stability-fsbs-carney-tells-g20/ https://dailyhodl.com/2018/03/19/us-congress-releases-extraordinary-report-praising-cryptocurrency-and-blockchain-technology/ My favourite bit of news came from Japan where Brad Garlinghouse did an interview on a TV news station stating that Ripple's goal is to partner with half of the World's Financial Institutions within 5 years.
    https://www.oracletimes.com/breaking-how-ripple-xrp-plans-to-partner-with-over-half-of-worlds-financial-institutions/ This is extraordinary! How confident must Brad and Ripple be if they are making these sort of public claims?
    The marathon of announcements is turning into a sprint!!
    These fantastic announcements and good news stories will keep coming and at an exponential rate. Most coins price is governed by 100% speculation. XRP's price currently is mostly speculation but it is also real-world utility. This mix will balance itself out with demand for XRP being driven more and more by utility. Once that happens FOMO will kick in driving more speculation.
    Trust the good news that you are reading. Trust the fantastic staff at Ripple. Trust your investment. 
     
  6. Like
    zerpian got a reaction from automatic in 1 MegaRipple - what to call it?   
    I think we should honour JoelKatz by calling at least one unit something like Katz (sounds pretty good too).
  7. Like
    zerpian got a reaction from Tinyaccount in 1 MegaRipple - what to call it?   
    I think we should honour JoelKatz by calling at least one unit something like Katz (sounds pretty good too).
  8. Like
    zerpian got a reaction from Zerp_Legend in ANOVA of XRP   
    @Kalarie thanks for doing this. Might be relevant to your research:
     
    check this: https://www.sifrdata.com/cryptocurrency-correlation-matrix/
     
  9. Thanks
    zerpian reacted to Byron in Data verification & suggestion   
    Hi all,
    So I'm working on a spreadsheet with another fellow, however, it's very time consuming to piece together all the information and I would love the data to be as accurate as possible so as to not spread false hope.
    Would you be so kind as to run through the data. Specifically the list of partnerships, their country origins, whether the companies are subsidaries of others, as well as the the corresponding RippleNet implementation dates on the Partnerships sheet.
    http://rppl.info
    One thing that would be interesting to know: from my understanding, xVia can run as a seperate product, but is that the same for xRapid, or does it require xCurrent.
    The reason I ask, do I add the xCurrent implementation when I hear news that xRapid is being used. For example, WU have announced they're testing xRapid, so I've added both the dates as the same as only I'm unsure at the moment.
    Your help and advice would be greatly appreciated.
    I'm a newbie to the forums and cannot post it outside of New Members. If someone could like back to this post from other relevant forums, that would be great.
    Regards


     
  10. Thanks
    zerpian reacted to KarmaCoverage in Market overview and Ripple’s domination in 2018   
    @zerpian Here is that thread where I tried to think about Ripple as a Lender of XRP, for the purpose of enabling Exchanges to offer shorting of XRP, and the creation of XRP derivative products.
    In that same video around 16:50 Miguel talks about markets being like a "3 legged stool", with Market Makers (aka Liquidity Providers), Speculators, and Hedgers... he revisits role of Hedgers in the question section also, making more good points around 23:21 & 37:30
  11. Like
    zerpian reacted to Mpolnet in The starting number for utility-based price estimation   
    Thanks for the link for number of wallets! It's a key point to utility value valuation in my opinion. Since each wallet requires a reserve balance of 20 XRP, those 20 XRP in each wallet are effectively taken out of circulation since they can't be used. I will periodically update the number of wallets in the XRP valuation model to account for the total number of non-liquid XRP across wallets based on public information. In theory, the more wallets that are created = more XRP that is locked up and can't be used = upwards price pressure. 
  12. Like
    zerpian got a reaction from kiwiwild in Market overview and Ripple’s domination in 2018   
    Let me first begin with a quote I firmly believe in:
    “You can’t connect the dots looking forward; you can only connect them looking backwards. So you have to trust that the dots will somehow connect in your future. You have to trust in something — your gut, destiny, life, karma, whatever. This approach has never let me down, and it has made all the difference in my life.” Steve Jobs
    The future contains so much uncertainties, it’s easier to look backwards, map the historical facts and try to make a projection into the future and believe ‘your’ connected dots are correct because of your karma, destiny or whatever.
    Let’s recap crypto’s history, which we can break down in 5 phases also known as the technology adoption curve.
    The Genesis period (2008-2012), Bitcoin is born in an environment where is much distrust against establishments because of the devastating financial crisis in 2008.
    Moving past Bitcoin (2013-2014), this period is characterized by a second wave of influx of new users. The cryptomarket gets diversified with forks of Bitcoin and small changes to the protocol.
    Ethereum is launched as Bitcoin 2.0, crowdfunding the project with a whitepaper.
    XRP is born. The only currency which disrupts the existing market with its consensus protocol (instead of PoW or PoS) and ‘non-mineability’. Because of the still existing distrust against establishments and the domination of these users, it gets labelled as centralized…as a banker’s coin even worse as a scam. Ripple and the community are still fighting against the remainder of that era. Only later it will generally accepted Ripple’s protocol is far more superior then PoW or PoS.
    The quietness (2014-2016). After the collapse of Mt. Gox, a lot of negativity surrounding crypto arises. Ripple is planting seeds. Not much price action; all seem dead on the surface.
    The adulthood (2017-2018). Third influx of users/investors. They don’t care about the banker’s coin narrative because they know banks and establishments are going nowhere. In the contrary they look for known patterns.
    This period is going to be crucial for a variety of reasons but the most important is that the success in this period is going to be determinant whether crypto goes mainstream or not (next phase). It should finally need to find its place in the larger society (use cases), it should follow rules in the society (regulation).
    The seeds planted in the previous phase started to give some fruits in 2017 but honestly I could have never imagined, even in my wildest dreams, the actual price levels. The latter brings the next question: are we in a bubble? If so, in case it burst, we’ll go back to the quietness period to learn from our mistakes and try again to become an adult.
    It certainly will explode but the unknown is in what direction. I actually expected a big sell-off this month, being the first month of a new fiscal year. It didn’t happen. The Mcap didn’t dive neither under its low of 422B (despite excluding KRW). We’re certainly in a bear market with a lot of negative sentiment and I’m still cautious about the damage Tether might cause.
    Nevertheless the general market shows signs of survival. It might be because it’s mostly backed by retail investors with a holding strategy. If we continue at these price levels, it becomes psychologically accepted. As said it was not even easy to dream about BTC at 10k, ETH at 1k and XRP at 1. As we continue on the timeline, the chances for exploding on the upside become real…unless major shocks happen.
    So, assuming we’re not in a bubble and the history repeats itself, we might expect the next wave around April-June. Except this time the additional volume must come from use cases because it feels like we reached the maximum Mcap level with speculation. The market will become healthier, causing less volatility. These use cases will lead us into a new era: mainstream (2019- )
    It is therefore not a coincidence, Ripple started in 2018 with an amazing pace announcing partnerships with versatile use cases. These announcements will continue throughout the year as the seeds have started slowly popping or giving fruit. Ripple’s use case value is much higher than its speculative value (vs. BTC or ETH). If we reached these levels with speculation, again I cannot imagine what levels to expect when use cases are implemented.
    Everything is on track…for now. The only threat I see might come from Ripple itself: getting arrogant, celebrating the victory too early or losing motivation after several years. I’m sure none of these will happen. As Brad said, it’s a marathon. Ripple has only been a place for the team members, who share a common destiny, to come together and write history. They won’t give up until all the pages are filled.
    Last words: please do not get overinvested, think about your beloved ones. If you lose everything, you should be able to continue your life as if nothing happened. I know crypto gamified money but do not forget it is still real.
    Stay safe!
  13. Like
    zerpian got a reaction from GiddyUp in Market overview and Ripple’s domination in 2018   
    Meanwhile we had a major crash breaking through the low of 422B, during which the crypto market showed significant increase in correlation with the stock markets. So far, this correlation was almost nil. Also the correlation with VIX is noteworthy.
    But we’re back in business and as we move along the time line, the chances for an explosion on the upside are getting real. How big is this explosion going to be? If history is going to repeat: we’re heading to 2M on-ledger wallets around 08/2018 (now: 1.1M).
    As shown in the graph below, we’re witnessing in real time the tech adoption curve getting formed. It’s characterized by a S-shape. On the smaller scale, you’ll see repetitive S-shapes. Last year there were already 2, both showing the same pattern: after a period of steady growth, there’s a boom to catch the trend line.
     

    Given the fact that cryptomarkets are network-driven, Metcalfe’s law (n2) can be applied. Hence, the exponential trend line in the graph. This indicator is even more of value for XRP than e.g. for BTC because of the built-in barrier of 20 xrp. In other words every wallet is effectively representing a user (might be the same user though), which is not the case for e.g. BTC or ETH. So, the price is in fact a reflection of the network’s value and is subordinate to the number of users (or number of wallets).
    We might see xRapid being used very shortly. Besides xRapid, there are a lot of cryptoprojects going live in Q2/2018. The future looks promising for the market in general and xrp in particular..
    On a side note: Ripple shows so many similarities with Google in the dot com era. Some quotes:
    “We recognized years ago that existing search engines would be unable to keep pace with the massive growth of the Internet.”
    “Today's portals are not really about search, but instead they are all about pageviews and other services” vs.
    “Firstly, Google is widely regarded as technically superior. It ranks search results using a kind of automated peer review so that a page is judged partly by how many other pages on the Net link to it. Secondly, Google claims that it indexes more documents than anyone else (it was claiming half a billion documents last week) and therefore that searches on it tend to be more comprehensive (i.e. less arbitrary and selective).
    Oh, and Google does not take money in return for boosting your site in its rankings, a fact which endears it to geeks and drives business folks to distraction. “ --> Oh, and Ripple does not take your money in return for a faster confirmation..
    https://www.forbes.com/1999/10/04/feat.html#248243981652
    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2000/jul/02/searchengines.columnists
     
     
     
  14. Like
    zerpian got a reaction from Mpolnet in The starting number for utility-based price estimation   
    Take with grain of salt..but I think we could proxy the value by Metcalfe’s law. Here’s a post on BTC and ETH. I haven’t back tested but applying the found formula on xrp’s price, gives us:
    100 * (#wallets^1.5/39.5B (circulating supply)) = 1.12
    Taking the natural log gives: 3.08
    May be just a coincidence..
    If the stated formula were to be true, it should be more accurate for xrp than btc or eth (because of 20xrp wallet reserve).
  15. Like
    zerpian reacted to Zerping in Ripple submit 2 papers to Analyze the XRP Ledger Consensus Protocol and introduce new one   
    Woooow I've read the original XRP LCP paper and could grasp most of it. But these papers are much more "academic".
    Can someone smart give us a simple Cobalt vs XRP LCP comparison?
    Is there a plan to upgrade rippled to support Cobalt? Or would that need a complete rewrite?
    @JoelKatz pretty please.
  16. Like
    zerpian got a reaction from KarmaCoverage in Market overview and Ripple’s domination in 2018   
    Let me first begin with a quote I firmly believe in:
    “You can’t connect the dots looking forward; you can only connect them looking backwards. So you have to trust that the dots will somehow connect in your future. You have to trust in something — your gut, destiny, life, karma, whatever. This approach has never let me down, and it has made all the difference in my life.” Steve Jobs
    The future contains so much uncertainties, it’s easier to look backwards, map the historical facts and try to make a projection into the future and believe ‘your’ connected dots are correct because of your karma, destiny or whatever.
    Let’s recap crypto’s history, which we can break down in 5 phases also known as the technology adoption curve.
    The Genesis period (2008-2012), Bitcoin is born in an environment where is much distrust against establishments because of the devastating financial crisis in 2008.
    Moving past Bitcoin (2013-2014), this period is characterized by a second wave of influx of new users. The cryptomarket gets diversified with forks of Bitcoin and small changes to the protocol.
    Ethereum is launched as Bitcoin 2.0, crowdfunding the project with a whitepaper.
    XRP is born. The only currency which disrupts the existing market with its consensus protocol (instead of PoW or PoS) and ‘non-mineability’. Because of the still existing distrust against establishments and the domination of these users, it gets labelled as centralized…as a banker’s coin even worse as a scam. Ripple and the community are still fighting against the remainder of that era. Only later it will generally accepted Ripple’s protocol is far more superior then PoW or PoS.
    The quietness (2014-2016). After the collapse of Mt. Gox, a lot of negativity surrounding crypto arises. Ripple is planting seeds. Not much price action; all seem dead on the surface.
    The adulthood (2017-2018). Third influx of users/investors. They don’t care about the banker’s coin narrative because they know banks and establishments are going nowhere. In the contrary they look for known patterns.
    This period is going to be crucial for a variety of reasons but the most important is that the success in this period is going to be determinant whether crypto goes mainstream or not (next phase). It should finally need to find its place in the larger society (use cases), it should follow rules in the society (regulation).
    The seeds planted in the previous phase started to give some fruits in 2017 but honestly I could have never imagined, even in my wildest dreams, the actual price levels. The latter brings the next question: are we in a bubble? If so, in case it burst, we’ll go back to the quietness period to learn from our mistakes and try again to become an adult.
    It certainly will explode but the unknown is in what direction. I actually expected a big sell-off this month, being the first month of a new fiscal year. It didn’t happen. The Mcap didn’t dive neither under its low of 422B (despite excluding KRW). We’re certainly in a bear market with a lot of negative sentiment and I’m still cautious about the damage Tether might cause.
    Nevertheless the general market shows signs of survival. It might be because it’s mostly backed by retail investors with a holding strategy. If we continue at these price levels, it becomes psychologically accepted. As said it was not even easy to dream about BTC at 10k, ETH at 1k and XRP at 1. As we continue on the timeline, the chances for exploding on the upside become real…unless major shocks happen.
    So, assuming we’re not in a bubble and the history repeats itself, we might expect the next wave around April-June. Except this time the additional volume must come from use cases because it feels like we reached the maximum Mcap level with speculation. The market will become healthier, causing less volatility. These use cases will lead us into a new era: mainstream (2019- )
    It is therefore not a coincidence, Ripple started in 2018 with an amazing pace announcing partnerships with versatile use cases. These announcements will continue throughout the year as the seeds have started slowly popping or giving fruit. Ripple’s use case value is much higher than its speculative value (vs. BTC or ETH). If we reached these levels with speculation, again I cannot imagine what levels to expect when use cases are implemented.
    Everything is on track…for now. The only threat I see might come from Ripple itself: getting arrogant, celebrating the victory too early or losing motivation after several years. I’m sure none of these will happen. As Brad said, it’s a marathon. Ripple has only been a place for the team members, who share a common destiny, to come together and write history. They won’t give up until all the pages are filled.
    Last words: please do not get overinvested, think about your beloved ones. If you lose everything, you should be able to continue your life as if nothing happened. I know crypto gamified money but do not forget it is still real.
    Stay safe!
  17. Like
    zerpian reacted to Pablo in Unpacking the Lian Lian Announcement - The Battle to Become the New Banking Superpower in Asia   
    Apologies for the long post but the Lian Lian announcement needs to be unpacked a bit because I find this fascinating and pretty exciting stuff. Happy to have the ideas tested a bit by the smart cookies on XRPChat.
    TL;DR? How Ripple is triggering a battle to become the new banking superpower in Asia.
    A key issue for China is their concern about currency outflows so any organisation that simplifies international remittance at a retail level will be under the spotlight. They know that wealthy Chinese nationals are using HK as a gateway to move funds out of China and they need to control that outflow. Some countries are making that job easier for China as part of trade negotiations - e.g. Australia imposed strict foreign investment rules that has had an immediate impact on foreign (read Chinese) investment in the Australian property market.
    That's not the whole story because the Chinese can't simply throw the baby out with the bathwater here. The Chinese have spent the better part of the last 40 years building up close economic ties and foreign investment in ASEAN, African and South American nations so international remittance becomes a very, very big deal.
    The Central Committee will therefore be watching this experiment very carefully. Why "experiment"? Since the Deng era, the Chinese government has been conducting all types of regional economic experiments in "Special Economic Zones". They often let the region run them on an informal basis (nods and winks) even where the practice is contrary to national laws. Then they sit back and watch to see how it plays out.
    One of the earliest examples were those conducted by Xi Zhongxun in Guandong Province in 1979. Who's Xi Zhongxun, you ask? Xi Zhongxun was the father of the PRC's current president, Xi Jinping. Xi therefore grew up in a region that was the Great Southern Gateway to Hong Kong and the West and a study case for testing capitalist ideas. That context should provide us with a clear pointer for where Xi and the Central Committee is heading with this.
    If this experiment is successful and avoids major financial pitfalls and adverse societal impact, any prohibitions mysteriously lift (sometimes without announcement) and we see the experiment converted into national policy. The acceleration after that is then unleashed (which is why I believe the introduction of xRapid won't be gradual, it will be sudden and explosive). The Chinese Government moves so quickly on regulation/de-regulation you can get whip-lash trying to keep up. Or worse, you wake up and find yourself in jail.
    What we are watching is effectively a banking technology arms race: we see a resurgent Shinzo Abe working the international circuit like you wouldn't believe, spruiking the Japanese economic recovery and drumming up support to have Japan become a Westerner-friendly counter-balance to China in Asia. The moves by SBI and Japanese FIs are significant for Ripple and XRP because it forces China/HK to play catch up and they won't like it for two main reasons: bare-knuckle nationalism and the battle to become a banking superpower in Asia. Singapore is the next one to watch.
    Thanks to the nature of Chinese politics and history, they can afford to calculate in generations, not years. Japan is more or less a single-party state so its political elite are effectively in the same position of strength. As is Singapore. All of this levels out the playing field and puts the heat on China who are, nonetheless, masters of the (very) long game. I bet the Central Committee is scrambling to formulate a coherent policy as we speak because they can't afford to be late to the party when the tectonic plates are shifting (apologies for the mixed metaphors). Luckily for us, they have the best and brightest working long hours to test the various scenarios including this "little experiment" being run by Lian Lian.
    I've stopped eating popcorn. It's just too much.
  18. Like
    zerpian reacted to xh3b4sd in Market overview and Ripple’s domination in 2018   
    I agree with basically everything but this one. IMO the speculative aspect will tripple again this year. Think about the people hearing about crypto and then owning any. Countries like India making up a big part of the world's population do not even have good access to investments. Wait for the hedge fond managers pouring in. People always look for new investment strategies. The internet of value has a lot of promises. 
  19. Thanks
    zerpian got a reaction from Paradigm in Market overview and Ripple’s domination in 2018   
    Let me first begin with a quote I firmly believe in:
    “You can’t connect the dots looking forward; you can only connect them looking backwards. So you have to trust that the dots will somehow connect in your future. You have to trust in something — your gut, destiny, life, karma, whatever. This approach has never let me down, and it has made all the difference in my life.” Steve Jobs
    The future contains so much uncertainties, it’s easier to look backwards, map the historical facts and try to make a projection into the future and believe ‘your’ connected dots are correct because of your karma, destiny or whatever.
    Let’s recap crypto’s history, which we can break down in 5 phases also known as the technology adoption curve.
    The Genesis period (2008-2012), Bitcoin is born in an environment where is much distrust against establishments because of the devastating financial crisis in 2008.
    Moving past Bitcoin (2013-2014), this period is characterized by a second wave of influx of new users. The cryptomarket gets diversified with forks of Bitcoin and small changes to the protocol.
    Ethereum is launched as Bitcoin 2.0, crowdfunding the project with a whitepaper.
    XRP is born. The only currency which disrupts the existing market with its consensus protocol (instead of PoW or PoS) and ‘non-mineability’. Because of the still existing distrust against establishments and the domination of these users, it gets labelled as centralized…as a banker’s coin even worse as a scam. Ripple and the community are still fighting against the remainder of that era. Only later it will generally accepted Ripple’s protocol is far more superior then PoW or PoS.
    The quietness (2014-2016). After the collapse of Mt. Gox, a lot of negativity surrounding crypto arises. Ripple is planting seeds. Not much price action; all seem dead on the surface.
    The adulthood (2017-2018). Third influx of users/investors. They don’t care about the banker’s coin narrative because they know banks and establishments are going nowhere. In the contrary they look for known patterns.
    This period is going to be crucial for a variety of reasons but the most important is that the success in this period is going to be determinant whether crypto goes mainstream or not (next phase). It should finally need to find its place in the larger society (use cases), it should follow rules in the society (regulation).
    The seeds planted in the previous phase started to give some fruits in 2017 but honestly I could have never imagined, even in my wildest dreams, the actual price levels. The latter brings the next question: are we in a bubble? If so, in case it burst, we’ll go back to the quietness period to learn from our mistakes and try again to become an adult.
    It certainly will explode but the unknown is in what direction. I actually expected a big sell-off this month, being the first month of a new fiscal year. It didn’t happen. The Mcap didn’t dive neither under its low of 422B (despite excluding KRW). We’re certainly in a bear market with a lot of negative sentiment and I’m still cautious about the damage Tether might cause.
    Nevertheless the general market shows signs of survival. It might be because it’s mostly backed by retail investors with a holding strategy. If we continue at these price levels, it becomes psychologically accepted. As said it was not even easy to dream about BTC at 10k, ETH at 1k and XRP at 1. As we continue on the timeline, the chances for exploding on the upside become real…unless major shocks happen.
    So, assuming we’re not in a bubble and the history repeats itself, we might expect the next wave around April-June. Except this time the additional volume must come from use cases because it feels like we reached the maximum Mcap level with speculation. The market will become healthier, causing less volatility. These use cases will lead us into a new era: mainstream (2019- )
    It is therefore not a coincidence, Ripple started in 2018 with an amazing pace announcing partnerships with versatile use cases. These announcements will continue throughout the year as the seeds have started slowly popping or giving fruit. Ripple’s use case value is much higher than its speculative value (vs. BTC or ETH). If we reached these levels with speculation, again I cannot imagine what levels to expect when use cases are implemented.
    Everything is on track…for now. The only threat I see might come from Ripple itself: getting arrogant, celebrating the victory too early or losing motivation after several years. I’m sure none of these will happen. As Brad said, it’s a marathon. Ripple has only been a place for the team members, who share a common destiny, to come together and write history. They won’t give up until all the pages are filled.
    Last words: please do not get overinvested, think about your beloved ones. If you lose everything, you should be able to continue your life as if nothing happened. I know crypto gamified money but do not forget it is still real.
    Stay safe!
  20. Like
    zerpian got a reaction from buckor in Market overview and Ripple’s domination in 2018   
    Let me first begin with a quote I firmly believe in:
    “You can’t connect the dots looking forward; you can only connect them looking backwards. So you have to trust that the dots will somehow connect in your future. You have to trust in something — your gut, destiny, life, karma, whatever. This approach has never let me down, and it has made all the difference in my life.” Steve Jobs
    The future contains so much uncertainties, it’s easier to look backwards, map the historical facts and try to make a projection into the future and believe ‘your’ connected dots are correct because of your karma, destiny or whatever.
    Let’s recap crypto’s history, which we can break down in 5 phases also known as the technology adoption curve.
    The Genesis period (2008-2012), Bitcoin is born in an environment where is much distrust against establishments because of the devastating financial crisis in 2008.
    Moving past Bitcoin (2013-2014), this period is characterized by a second wave of influx of new users. The cryptomarket gets diversified with forks of Bitcoin and small changes to the protocol.
    Ethereum is launched as Bitcoin 2.0, crowdfunding the project with a whitepaper.
    XRP is born. The only currency which disrupts the existing market with its consensus protocol (instead of PoW or PoS) and ‘non-mineability’. Because of the still existing distrust against establishments and the domination of these users, it gets labelled as centralized…as a banker’s coin even worse as a scam. Ripple and the community are still fighting against the remainder of that era. Only later it will generally accepted Ripple’s protocol is far more superior then PoW or PoS.
    The quietness (2014-2016). After the collapse of Mt. Gox, a lot of negativity surrounding crypto arises. Ripple is planting seeds. Not much price action; all seem dead on the surface.
    The adulthood (2017-2018). Third influx of users/investors. They don’t care about the banker’s coin narrative because they know banks and establishments are going nowhere. In the contrary they look for known patterns.
    This period is going to be crucial for a variety of reasons but the most important is that the success in this period is going to be determinant whether crypto goes mainstream or not (next phase). It should finally need to find its place in the larger society (use cases), it should follow rules in the society (regulation).
    The seeds planted in the previous phase started to give some fruits in 2017 but honestly I could have never imagined, even in my wildest dreams, the actual price levels. The latter brings the next question: are we in a bubble? If so, in case it burst, we’ll go back to the quietness period to learn from our mistakes and try again to become an adult.
    It certainly will explode but the unknown is in what direction. I actually expected a big sell-off this month, being the first month of a new fiscal year. It didn’t happen. The Mcap didn’t dive neither under its low of 422B (despite excluding KRW). We’re certainly in a bear market with a lot of negative sentiment and I’m still cautious about the damage Tether might cause.
    Nevertheless the general market shows signs of survival. It might be because it’s mostly backed by retail investors with a holding strategy. If we continue at these price levels, it becomes psychologically accepted. As said it was not even easy to dream about BTC at 10k, ETH at 1k and XRP at 1. As we continue on the timeline, the chances for exploding on the upside become real…unless major shocks happen.
    So, assuming we’re not in a bubble and the history repeats itself, we might expect the next wave around April-June. Except this time the additional volume must come from use cases because it feels like we reached the maximum Mcap level with speculation. The market will become healthier, causing less volatility. These use cases will lead us into a new era: mainstream (2019- )
    It is therefore not a coincidence, Ripple started in 2018 with an amazing pace announcing partnerships with versatile use cases. These announcements will continue throughout the year as the seeds have started slowly popping or giving fruit. Ripple’s use case value is much higher than its speculative value (vs. BTC or ETH). If we reached these levels with speculation, again I cannot imagine what levels to expect when use cases are implemented.
    Everything is on track…for now. The only threat I see might come from Ripple itself: getting arrogant, celebrating the victory too early or losing motivation after several years. I’m sure none of these will happen. As Brad said, it’s a marathon. Ripple has only been a place for the team members, who share a common destiny, to come together and write history. They won’t give up until all the pages are filled.
    Last words: please do not get overinvested, think about your beloved ones. If you lose everything, you should be able to continue your life as if nothing happened. I know crypto gamified money but do not forget it is still real.
    Stay safe!
  21. Like
    zerpian got a reaction from xh3b4sd in Market overview and Ripple’s domination in 2018   
    Let me first begin with a quote I firmly believe in:
    “You can’t connect the dots looking forward; you can only connect them looking backwards. So you have to trust that the dots will somehow connect in your future. You have to trust in something — your gut, destiny, life, karma, whatever. This approach has never let me down, and it has made all the difference in my life.” Steve Jobs
    The future contains so much uncertainties, it’s easier to look backwards, map the historical facts and try to make a projection into the future and believe ‘your’ connected dots are correct because of your karma, destiny or whatever.
    Let’s recap crypto’s history, which we can break down in 5 phases also known as the technology adoption curve.
    The Genesis period (2008-2012), Bitcoin is born in an environment where is much distrust against establishments because of the devastating financial crisis in 2008.
    Moving past Bitcoin (2013-2014), this period is characterized by a second wave of influx of new users. The cryptomarket gets diversified with forks of Bitcoin and small changes to the protocol.
    Ethereum is launched as Bitcoin 2.0, crowdfunding the project with a whitepaper.
    XRP is born. The only currency which disrupts the existing market with its consensus protocol (instead of PoW or PoS) and ‘non-mineability’. Because of the still existing distrust against establishments and the domination of these users, it gets labelled as centralized…as a banker’s coin even worse as a scam. Ripple and the community are still fighting against the remainder of that era. Only later it will generally accepted Ripple’s protocol is far more superior then PoW or PoS.
    The quietness (2014-2016). After the collapse of Mt. Gox, a lot of negativity surrounding crypto arises. Ripple is planting seeds. Not much price action; all seem dead on the surface.
    The adulthood (2017-2018). Third influx of users/investors. They don’t care about the banker’s coin narrative because they know banks and establishments are going nowhere. In the contrary they look for known patterns.
    This period is going to be crucial for a variety of reasons but the most important is that the success in this period is going to be determinant whether crypto goes mainstream or not (next phase). It should finally need to find its place in the larger society (use cases), it should follow rules in the society (regulation).
    The seeds planted in the previous phase started to give some fruits in 2017 but honestly I could have never imagined, even in my wildest dreams, the actual price levels. The latter brings the next question: are we in a bubble? If so, in case it burst, we’ll go back to the quietness period to learn from our mistakes and try again to become an adult.
    It certainly will explode but the unknown is in what direction. I actually expected a big sell-off this month, being the first month of a new fiscal year. It didn’t happen. The Mcap didn’t dive neither under its low of 422B (despite excluding KRW). We’re certainly in a bear market with a lot of negative sentiment and I’m still cautious about the damage Tether might cause.
    Nevertheless the general market shows signs of survival. It might be because it’s mostly backed by retail investors with a holding strategy. If we continue at these price levels, it becomes psychologically accepted. As said it was not even easy to dream about BTC at 10k, ETH at 1k and XRP at 1. As we continue on the timeline, the chances for exploding on the upside become real…unless major shocks happen.
    So, assuming we’re not in a bubble and the history repeats itself, we might expect the next wave around April-June. Except this time the additional volume must come from use cases because it feels like we reached the maximum Mcap level with speculation. The market will become healthier, causing less volatility. These use cases will lead us into a new era: mainstream (2019- )
    It is therefore not a coincidence, Ripple started in 2018 with an amazing pace announcing partnerships with versatile use cases. These announcements will continue throughout the year as the seeds have started slowly popping or giving fruit. Ripple’s use case value is much higher than its speculative value (vs. BTC or ETH). If we reached these levels with speculation, again I cannot imagine what levels to expect when use cases are implemented.
    Everything is on track…for now. The only threat I see might come from Ripple itself: getting arrogant, celebrating the victory too early or losing motivation after several years. I’m sure none of these will happen. As Brad said, it’s a marathon. Ripple has only been a place for the team members, who share a common destiny, to come together and write history. They won’t give up until all the pages are filled.
    Last words: please do not get overinvested, think about your beloved ones. If you lose everything, you should be able to continue your life as if nothing happened. I know crypto gamified money but do not forget it is still real.
    Stay safe!
  22. Thanks
    zerpian got a reaction from xh3b4sd in How does xRapid provide liquidity?   
    I’ve my doubts as well for some corridors. But the point is there is room for improvement on some corridors, where xrp fits, and may be even on the classicals like (eur-usd).
    Also the data come from a period when there was much less liquidity as there is now.
  23. Like
    zerpian got a reaction from Oldschool in Important question the XRP community need to ask and demand answers for   
    Please read the info available before posting this kind of misinformation. Start with the quarterly reports, in which it’s been stated how much xrp is sold and at what price.
    All of your three points are incorrect. I just want to answer the last one. The last time I checked 60 % of xrp’s volume is against fiat, whereas BTC is at 40%.
  24. Like
    zerpian got a reaction from Rabbit_Kick_Club in Important question the XRP community need to ask and demand answers for   
    Please read the info available before posting this kind of misinformation. Start with the quarterly reports, in which it’s been stated how much xrp is sold and at what price.
    All of your three points are incorrect. I just want to answer the last one. The last time I checked 60 % of xrp’s volume is against fiat, whereas BTC is at 40%.
  25. Thanks
    zerpian got a reaction from Atomic1221 in How does xRapid provide liquidity?   
    Check this:
     
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