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philwynk

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  1. Like
    philwynk reacted to xh3b4sd in Why does the useless copycat *hit Stellar keep rising?   
    I am pretty sure Stellar and Ripple will coexists and both do good. I do not have Stellar and I do not like Jed, but this is it. They pursue different levels of the financial markets. I do not think they have to compete a lot, because Ripple is B2B on an FI level and Stellar is B2C and maybe even C2C. Real world usage will show which coin is worth how much. 
  2. Thanks
    philwynk got a reaction from ElChupaThingy78 in Where are we heading???   
    You are correct. 

    First of all, there are weekly futures that expire every Friday. There are also SPX weeklies (Standard &  Poor's 500 weeklies) that expire every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday. So, no, the expiration of options is not going to be the cause of a decent-sized dip. That's silly. Plus, the only futures expiring today are weekly futures.

    Second of all, futures don't cause major price shifts, they anticipate them. Think about what futures are. They're bets on what the price is going to be in the future. If one is buying a stock expecting its price to rise, one can at the same time buy (at a much lower cost) an option to sell at today's price if the price happens to drop, protecting oneself against the contrary motion of the market. Whoever picks up the option is obligated to buy at that price later on, so you're guaranteed a buyer at that price. That buyer is betting that the price will rise at the same time that you're betting that it will fall. Bets on the future price thus balance; for every bet that the price is going up, there's another bet that it's going down, or else puts or calls are going begging. The net of all options bought and sold is always zero.

    Claiming that futures affect the market is like saying that your bet on a horse at Pimlico affects the outcome of the race. It simply doesn't work that way. The only way that futures can affect the market is when there are enough requests for options in a given direction that the sheer volume of the options changes peoples' expectations of what the market is going to do. Expectations CAN affect the price of a stock or commodity in that way, but as you said, the volume of options would have to have been enormous for that to happen--and by the time the options expire, that effect has already been incorporated into the price of the stock. It's an expectation, remember? It's about the future, not the present.

    I'm no expert, and anybody should feel free to tell me where I've got this wrong. But that's my understanding.
  3. Thanks
    philwynk got a reaction from rom in Where are we heading???   
    You are correct. 

    First of all, there are weekly futures that expire every Friday. There are also SPX weeklies (Standard &  Poor's 500 weeklies) that expire every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday. So, no, the expiration of options is not going to be the cause of a decent-sized dip. That's silly. Plus, the only futures expiring today are weekly futures.

    Second of all, futures don't cause major price shifts, they anticipate them. Think about what futures are. They're bets on what the price is going to be in the future. If one is buying a stock expecting its price to rise, one can at the same time buy (at a much lower cost) an option to sell at today's price if the price happens to drop, protecting oneself against the contrary motion of the market. Whoever picks up the option is obligated to buy at that price later on, so you're guaranteed a buyer at that price. That buyer is betting that the price will rise at the same time that you're betting that it will fall. Bets on the future price thus balance; for every bet that the price is going up, there's another bet that it's going down, or else puts or calls are going begging. The net of all options bought and sold is always zero.

    Claiming that futures affect the market is like saying that your bet on a horse at Pimlico affects the outcome of the race. It simply doesn't work that way. The only way that futures can affect the market is when there are enough requests for options in a given direction that the sheer volume of the options changes peoples' expectations of what the market is going to do. Expectations CAN affect the price of a stock or commodity in that way, but as you said, the volume of options would have to have been enormous for that to happen--and by the time the options expire, that effect has already been incorporated into the price of the stock. It's an expectation, remember? It's about the future, not the present.

    I'm no expert, and anybody should feel free to tell me where I've got this wrong. But that's my understanding.
  4. Like
    philwynk got a reaction from Lawsuit in It's Happening? The Zerpening!   
    I have roughly equal amounts of XRP and XLM. Of course, the XLM is worth about half what the XRP is worth. I bought XLM as a sort of hedge, although I really don't think XRP and XLM are strictly competitors. 

    I don't know of anyplace where you can buy XLM using $$. I buy them on Kraken; I buy XBT (bitcoin on Kraken) and then use XBT to buy XLM. It's a nuisance but not difficult. You need to know the XLM/XBT ratio, usually something with four zeros following the decimal point (it's now around .00005400); you multiply that by the current bitcoin price in USD to get XLM/$$. 
  5. Like
    philwynk reacted to Lawsuit in It's Happening? The Zerpening!   
    Haha, sorry, didn't mean to snap. I think there's room for success for both of them. XRP remains my main investment, but XLM has a foothold and isn't going away in the near term. It's not quite in direct competition with XRP for either Ripple or Stellars initial objectives, so there's no harm in having both.
    Obviously, when we're talking endgame - they may round on each other and be in direct competition. We're years from endgame though. I don't feel guilty for hedging my bets.
     
  6. Haha
  7. Thanks
    philwynk reacted to XRPto50dollars in Charts - How To's   
    Seeing there are a number of people in here interested in how to use charts to their benefit,
    I figure I'd make a Topic on charts specifically for XRP..
    First rule: Charts do not decide the price of XRP. Don't think that by drawing an arrow pointing upward, that the price is going to follow your opinion. That's my first complaint with TA. Sites such as Tradingview.com has hundreds of users plotting fancy charts like the one below in which the users constantly 'conclude' that the price is going to go up (blue arrows). This is NOT the purpose of technical analysis. TA's main purpose is to convince yourself to hold while your investment price is dropping. This concept is rarely mentioned in TA websites.

    Second rule: When drawing a chart, don't draw what you WANT to see. Draw what is there and then interpret it to the best of your ability. 
    Third rule: TA is extremely powerful and accurate once you learn how to use it. Someone once said, the reason so many people dont like TA is because they dont understand it. Very true.
    Fourth rule: Keep the chart as simple as possible (refer to Rule #1)
    Fifth rule: You will not always be correct. Although chart analysis can assist in your investment decisions, TA is not 100% accurate (just like everything else in life). Do not plot a chart, draw some lines, sell your house, and put it all on XRP because you think the chart is going to make you a million dollars. This is not the purpose of TA. 
    Sixth rule: DO NOT INVEST MORE THAN YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOSE. 
  8. Like
    philwynk reacted to teddybear in Anyone else feel they don't have enough XRP?   
    It's not what you have, it's who you are. We ain't taking nothing with us when we pass away. Inner peace is what matters, not belongings.
  9. Like
    philwynk reacted to RegalChicken in Anyone else feel they don't have enough XRP?   
    Here's the thing, Captain. 
    I sold Amazon at $45 to buy my first house at 20. I sold that house at age 27ish and rolled what was then $90k in equity into my next house and paid off my only debt, $8k car loan. 
    That house (now my exes) sits with about $150,000+ in equity all because a 16year old kid plopped down $800 on Amazon stock with a joint acct his dad let him open and sold it at age 20.
    So I continued trading assets up for new assets as they appreciated. 
    I spent around $8000 on ge stock, sold it for $35,000 to put a down payment on a condo and it has over $100k equity a year later. That one was half luck half smart. I expected a fast return but only half that. 
    I bought as much Facebook as I could at $20/share and I continued to buy Facebook for years until $160. Last year I sold in the $180 ish range and traded it into XRP around $.20
    But I have also bought xrp at $2, $1.53, $1.63 today, $.75, etc. 
    Today I got paid so I took a little bit of money like I have done since I was twenty and I invested it. 
    If xrp stalls out and after two years seems done with parabolic growth I'll cash it out and move it into my next asset. If it moons I'll still do that, although more comfortably. 
    The fact that you are investing at all says a lot about you. Know your investments and know why you buy them
     Dollar cost average and buy what you can ever paycheck. Set a goal. "I want to have 2,500xrp" and then just buy every payday until you have 2500
    Dont say oh I can't buy it at $2 that's too high. 
    If there is a price that is too high then don't invest at all cause it's a bad asset in your eyes. 
    I hodled Facebook because I think it can be a $1000 stock like Google. 
    But I finally traded it for xrp because I asked myself this question.... Which asset will double first. Xrp or Fb. I picked xrp and got lucky enough to be right. 
     
    Just make systematic investments. Don't buy into fomo and don't sell into fud. Accumulate and HODL wisely based upon your savings goals and capabilities. 
    Remember my modest $800 Amazon investment turned into $150,000 real estate equity over nearly two decades time. Invest and hodl my friend. Always. 
  10. Like
    philwynk reacted to jag216 in How many sold/about to sell in fear?   
    I've actually returned to my original expected trajectory based on fundamentals, which have improved since early December. Still hoping to buy in @ $0.75 if I can get exchanges to clear my deposits. Frustrating.
    I wasn't expecting to break into dollar territory until Q3 - based on where Ripple reps see its position right now and how consultants treat Ripple in the broader marketplace.
    That isn't to say I think it "shouldn't" be worth that much, but a test drive is not a sale. I do think that as more business is denominated in XRP it has to naturally assume the value of underlying contingent assets. The real value of the coin is not fundamentally its trading value - it is the value of the asset chains that it is contracted to redeem.
    We've learned this for decades of debt-based currency. The value of money depends considerably on what assets are redeemable with it. There are fluctuations based on the anticipation of what that money might be able to buy (or not buy) in the future, but this whole 'should be' economy of pricing and valuation is going to lead to errors, and errors can be very expensive. It is better to stick with real redemption rates as we know them, and pay close attention of expansion plans, timelines and scale.
    Amex is testing redemption corridor for assets between NA and UK with Santander - how is that going? Is the vertical improving? Is the horizontal ready to expand?
    If you go back and watch Brad's videos, he mentioned Amazon a TON. Take off your speculation glasses for a minute and instead of trying to guess when Amazon will be added as a partner (and believe me they won't until Ripple is considered a peer - and they are not).
    He explains over and over what his understanding of Amazon's model is - how they have taken over so many industries.
    Amazon started, if you will, with a dot on the horizon of commerce. We want to be the biggest bookstore. Make our customers happy from a to z. If you don't know that this is what the logo means, look at it again.
    They spent years dubiously building their verticals in that space - more customers, more books, and eventually more profits. Then they expanded to another vertical, movies and music. Then household. Etc. Etc. Each category is another silo constructed on the horizon of e-commerce. They perfect a vertical and then expand horizontally - which in Amazon's case means geographical spread, and it has not always been easy. FBA (Fulfillment By Amazon, which is a great logistics program) is another vertical they built.
    If you have any experience with systems design and you work with FBA, you can see the point-vertical-horizontal development pattern throughout their entire organization. At times it is frustrating because the verticals that appear so seamless on the front-end are often diverse, complicated and downright inconsistent on the back end.
    Verticals as they build are super rocky and experimental. Once they are solid, however, they potnetially explode horizontally unless there are government or industry juggernaut who are entrenched along the way.
    But Amazon just works around them. FBA can't ship books to Canada because Canadian booksellers lobbied the government to block Amazon from taking over their small bookseller market? Fine - says Amazon - we'll build a completely separate FBA warehouse network on the same continent just for Canada and build a completely distinct FBA account and console just for the Canadian market.
    Ripple views their work and their growth the same way.
    1) Perform one thing superbly.
    2) Establish the vertical - build up the vertical to its performance apex - happy customers, solid profits.
    3) Build out the vertical across the horizontal - grow initial success exponentially - happy demographics, solid ecosystems, massive profits, massive reinvestment.
    4) Rinse and repeat.
    Now you can pay attention to ignorant speculation grounded in nothing, or you can watch for areas in which Ripple is working with others and follow the pattern:
    Points - what new partners and corridors are they seeking to establish?
    Verticals - what partners are working with them to build up an engine on top of a key business point?
    Horizontals - what partners have seen so much success in perfecting the utilization of Ripple in one vertical that they are ready to expand territory wide?
    We've reached $1 based on nothing more than 100+ points, perhaps 60 verticals, only 3-5 of them solid and 0 horizontals. That's more than I would have expected.
    I think we're doing great, and I can't wait until we hear our first FI declare that their deployment of ripple was so successful in one market that they are expanding their program into other markets.
    That is when we take off. Not before.
  11. Like
    philwynk got a reaction from godzerper in New R3 technology currently in 70 of the largest banks...What does this mean for Ripple?   
    Uh...because it's worth billions of dollars right now.

    Occam's Razor, baby...
  12. Like
    philwynk reacted to QWE in New R3 technology currently in 70 of the largest banks...What does this mean for Ripple?   
    *sigh* I will keep posting this as long as R3 keeps popping up on XRP chat.
     
    R3 offers Permissioned Private Ledger solutions and in many cases, they actually promote that the customer does not need blockchain solution at all. It is a completely different concept from what Ripple is trying to do, so they do not directly compete to one another. R3 also does not have a native token like Ripple's XRP.
     
    See picture in attachment from one of R3 own presentations:
     

     
  13. Like
    philwynk got a reaction from mjimxrp in New R3 technology currently in 70 of the largest banks...What does this mean for Ripple?   
    Tweet dated Oct 13, 2017. 

    Here's what Fortune said about that ruling back in October: "A source familiar with the litigation, however, challenged the significance of the ruling, claiming the Delaware court had declined jurisdiction to hear the case, and that a legal fight would continue in New York or California." http://fortune.com/2017/10/13/blockchain-ripple-r3/

    Brad Garlinghouse disputed that assessment in the October article, but now here's a comment from the latest Fortune article about the matter, dated Jan 9, 2018:  "The outcome of the court fight in New York, which comes after procedural skirmishes in California and Delaware, is hard to predict. According to a contract law expert, the matter is likely to turn on whether R3’s failure to inform Ripple about the departure of partners like Goldman Sachs amounts to a “material breach.” http://fortune.com/2018/01/09/cryptocurrency-ripple-xrp-lawsuit/

    Apparently the lawsuit continues in New York, along with Ripple's counter-suit claiming that R3 failed to uphold their side of the contract.

    None of this affects the news at the top of the chain here, suggesting that a large number of banks are on board the R3 project. As an investor in XRP, this is unsettling news to me. But then, I guess I'm to blame for not knowing the status of bank clearing software development before I invested. No matter; it's not a huge amount of money in any case, and the story is far from being over. I'm still holding...oh, right, "hodling". 
  14. Like
    philwynk got a reaction from jchrishome in New R3 technology currently in 70 of the largest banks...What does this mean for Ripple?   
    Tweet dated Oct 13, 2017. 

    Here's what Fortune said about that ruling back in October: "A source familiar with the litigation, however, challenged the significance of the ruling, claiming the Delaware court had declined jurisdiction to hear the case, and that a legal fight would continue in New York or California." http://fortune.com/2017/10/13/blockchain-ripple-r3/

    Brad Garlinghouse disputed that assessment in the October article, but now here's a comment from the latest Fortune article about the matter, dated Jan 9, 2018:  "The outcome of the court fight in New York, which comes after procedural skirmishes in California and Delaware, is hard to predict. According to a contract law expert, the matter is likely to turn on whether R3’s failure to inform Ripple about the departure of partners like Goldman Sachs amounts to a “material breach.” http://fortune.com/2018/01/09/cryptocurrency-ripple-xrp-lawsuit/

    Apparently the lawsuit continues in New York, along with Ripple's counter-suit claiming that R3 failed to uphold their side of the contract.

    None of this affects the news at the top of the chain here, suggesting that a large number of banks are on board the R3 project. As an investor in XRP, this is unsettling news to me. But then, I guess I'm to blame for not knowing the status of bank clearing software development before I invested. No matter; it's not a huge amount of money in any case, and the story is far from being over. I'm still holding...oh, right, "hodling". 
  15. Like
    philwynk got a reaction from RalphWaldo in New R3 technology currently in 70 of the largest banks...What does this mean for Ripple?   
    Tweet dated Oct 13, 2017. 

    Here's what Fortune said about that ruling back in October: "A source familiar with the litigation, however, challenged the significance of the ruling, claiming the Delaware court had declined jurisdiction to hear the case, and that a legal fight would continue in New York or California." http://fortune.com/2017/10/13/blockchain-ripple-r3/

    Brad Garlinghouse disputed that assessment in the October article, but now here's a comment from the latest Fortune article about the matter, dated Jan 9, 2018:  "The outcome of the court fight in New York, which comes after procedural skirmishes in California and Delaware, is hard to predict. According to a contract law expert, the matter is likely to turn on whether R3’s failure to inform Ripple about the departure of partners like Goldman Sachs amounts to a “material breach.” http://fortune.com/2018/01/09/cryptocurrency-ripple-xrp-lawsuit/

    Apparently the lawsuit continues in New York, along with Ripple's counter-suit claiming that R3 failed to uphold their side of the contract.

    None of this affects the news at the top of the chain here, suggesting that a large number of banks are on board the R3 project. As an investor in XRP, this is unsettling news to me. But then, I guess I'm to blame for not knowing the status of bank clearing software development before I invested. No matter; it's not a huge amount of money in any case, and the story is far from being over. I'm still holding...oh, right, "hodling". 
  16. Like
    philwynk got a reaction from jjitalex in Theory question: is the ripple ledger really a blockchain?   
    So, I'm reaching some clarity (I think) about the meaning of "blockchain" as a technology. Let me take my first stab at a formal definition:

    "Blockchain" denotes a specific type of database structure coupled with a  protocol for updating and verification that incorporates the following features:

    * distributed data and decision-making; no official, central server
    * group-level verification of accepted records to keep distributed versions in synch
    * cell-level encryption
    * hashing to connect related links in the data chain
    * immutability of data records; values are superseded rather than updated

    Different blockchain technologies go about meeting those criteria in different ways, but they all meet all of those criteria somehow.

    How'd I do?
  17. Like
    philwynk reacted to Mercury in Theory question: is the ripple ledger really a blockchain?   
    Ripple tech was coined as 'ledger-chain' by a forum member (sorry, can't remember who).
    For how the ledger works see here:
    https://ripple.com/build/ledger-format/
    and here:
    https://ripple.com/build/reaching-consensus-xrp-ledger/
    Roughly every 4-6 seconds the ledger closes and the next starts based on the last closing ledger totals (chain of ledgers), the full ledger history is kept on nodes (why consensues and UNL is important as they are the custodians of the cryptographic 'truth'.
    Vs blockchain that tries to encapsulate all information all the time.
    To the average laymen these are the same but there are some differences. @JoelKatz and others can explain it better than I
  18. Thanks
    philwynk reacted to mDuo13 in Theory question: is the ripple ledger really a blockchain?   
    You're spot-on when you say that the XRP Ledger is not a "blockchain" in the strict sense. That's because it's all about the mechanism for achieving consensus.
    To me, "blockchain" means proof of work and other mining-based technologies where the consensus is, by convention, declared as whatever the longest chain contains.
    In comparison, the XRP Ledger technology makes the element of human trust explicit in the consensus rules. For Bitcoin you say, "I trust whichever chain is  longest because making a chain long is a matter of collaborating and having more computing power dedicated to this problem than everyone who wants the consensus to be different." For the XRP Ledger you say, "I trust whatever this set of servers can agree on." The differences from strictly-defined "blockchain" tech don't end there (there's also the "one complete slice" versus "just the diff" blocks) but that's the most important one. That's why the XRP Ledger goes so fast—you're not competing to see who can waste the most energy on the problem—but it's also why decentralizing the XRP Ledger is so much harder, because it actually matters who's running the servers you trust.
    However, "blockchain" has become too much of a buzzword for Ripple to claim not to be one. I'm pretty sure Ripple's marketing department threw in the towel on trying to explain these technical vagaries and just decided, "You know what, the XRP Ledger is a decentralized database with digital signatures and a scarce native asset and transactions that are confirmed in sequential blocks... that's close enough."
  19. Like
    philwynk reacted to Zerping in Theory question: is the ripple ledger really a blockchain?   
    A block is just a chunk of data.
    A blockchain is a data structure where each block is connected to the previous one with it's hash.
    XRP Ledger uses the blockchain data structure. Contrary to other popular blockchain technologies XRP Ledger stores the complete ledger (+ some metadata) in each block, instead of single transactions.
  20. Like
    philwynk reacted to Hoooodlr in Fundamental: value of XRP coin and Ripple   
  21. Like
    philwynk reacted to snub-fighter in Fundamental: value of XRP coin and Ripple   
    The nostro vostro money is considered dead money because the banks cant use it besides it being leveraged for cross border payments.  Big disadvantage to banks.  They could use that money instead to make more money.
  22. Like
    philwynk reacted to susli in Fundamental: value of XRP coin and Ripple   
    The customers who actually provide money to the banks would definitely choose banks with money transfer time in seconds and much lower fees over banks that refuse to change.
  23. Thanks
    philwynk got a reaction from TLG in When is the DIP going to be over!!!??   
    Them using the ripple protocol (xCurrent) strengthens the Ripple company, as Ripple gets income by selling their API (Application Program Interface). Also, the more they sell the protocol, the closer it comes to being an international standard.

    And the more Ripple becomes a standard, the more its reputation is going to get reflected in the value of XRP. So they're not completely disconnected.
    If I've got this right, using the xCurrent protocol suite allows banks to save time and expense by bypassing national clearinghouses and allowing more direct point-to-point transfer of funds. The transfer takes place several orders of magnitude quicker and the fees are about 1/3 lower. They can transfer any electronic value that they like.

    Using xRapid (which uses XRP as well as the protocol) saves additional currency conversion fees, reducing the costs by another 1/3 or so. 

    So you're exactly correct: they don't have to use XRP but they save perhaps twice as much $$ if they do.
  24. Confused
    philwynk reacted to TLG in When is the DIP going to be over!!!??   
    don’t worry guys i just had a talk with the secret shadow exchange consortium, explained they really need to crank this thing up.  They were very receptive.  Now we sit back and wait ?
     
    dont worry i got this!  
  25. Like
    philwynk reacted to xh3b4sd in When is the DIP going to be over!!!??   
    *and a kitten dies. 
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