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philwynk

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Everything posted by philwynk

  1. This is logically unsound unless you're of the belief that the current drop in the price of XRP is just market "noise," and that the technology is fundamentally sound and will eventually become an accepted standard of global monetary transfer. I do believe that. That's why I'm holding it. I can see the intuitive emotional appeal of "never sell in the red," but what if the stock, commodity, or coin never comes out of the red? There's no intrinsic, logical reason why you should have a better chance of getting your "lost" investment back in the stock where it's currently invested than in some
  2. Oh, one more thing: XLM and XRP appear to be tethered to each other so far as market performance is concerned, at least for the moment. XLM is roughly half the price of XRP, and at least for the last 2 months they've been rising and falling together at roughly the same rate.
  3. Stellar and Ripple are not exactly competitors. Yes, companies can use either for the same purpose, but no, it's not likely that one will win while the other loses. What is more likely is that both will prosper within their chosen niche: Ripple with the small-to-midrange banks, Stellar with third world nations, individuals, and Progressive purists. Stellar addresses the biggest problem that crypto purists have with Ripple: it's not an "Evil Corporation"-based currency. Note that IBM has made a commitment to Stellar's technology and is rolling out blockchain-based money transfers througho
  4. PS: Here's the CBOE's expiration calendar. http://www.cboe.com/framed/pdfframed?content=/aboutcboe/xcal2018.pdf&section=SEC_RESOURCES&title=2018+Cboe+Expiration+Calendar
  5. You are correct. First of all, there are weekly futures that expire every Friday. There are also SPX weeklies (Standard & Poor's 500 weeklies) that expire every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday. So, no, the expiration of options is not going to be the cause of a decent-sized dip. That's silly. Plus, the only futures expiring today are weekly futures. Second of all, futures don't cause major price shifts, they anticipate them. Think about what futures are. They're bets on what the price is going to be in the future. If one is buying a stock expecting its price to rise, one can at the s
  6. FUD, to be ignored. Three reasons: (1) Ripple does not require anybody to use XRP. Their first product is Xcurrent, which is a public ledger which makes transfers quicker and cheaper. Acceptance of Xcurrent will increase the perceived value of XRP, though. (2) He's talking about the biggest banks, and those are not Ripple's primary target market. They're aiming at small-to-medium-size banks. (3) He's saying "Nobody's using it yet." Duuuuhh... we already know that. The people who claim to be interested are in pilot stages at this point.
  7. Nah, it really doesn't matter what BTC (or XBT on Kraken) is worth, so long as it's relatively stable at that moment. You only have to hold the BTC for as long as it takes you to convert them to USD. Unless BTC is crashing at the very moment you're doing it, you won't lose much due to the exchange, no matter what the price is.
  8. I have roughly equal amounts of XRP and XLM. Of course, the XLM is worth about half what the XRP is worth. I bought XLM as a sort of hedge, although I really don't think XRP and XLM are strictly competitors. I don't know of anyplace where you can buy XLM using $$. I buy them on Kraken; I buy XBT (bitcoin on Kraken) and then use XBT to buy XLM. It's a nuisance but not difficult. You need to know the XLM/XBT ratio, usually something with four zeros following the decimal point (it's now around .00005400); you multiply that by the current bitcoin price in USD to get XLM/$$.
  9. Nope, I don't think so. The volume of XLM being traded on Kraken and Bittrex is way low. Doesn't look like whales are pushing this. But, please, somebody with more experience ought to look, since I'm pretty new at reading charts.
  10. If XRP rises to $100 per, there will be plenty of people wanting to buy in. I can't imagine that you'll have any difficulty selling. The more likely difficulty will be the ability of the exchanges to meet the demand for liquidity--you may have limits on how much you can liquidate per day or per month. For my part, if I'm sitting on the sort of $$ that my XRPs will be worth at $100, I might sell something like 30% and invest it in something safe like a good mutual fund. But I'd hold on to the rest.
  11. What I'm seeing is XRP finding a new floor. Its value appears to be hovering around $1.30-$1.35. That appears to be the new "normal." Mind you, I'm pretty new to reading charts, so somebody please correct me if I'm getting this wrong. If you were buying XRP for a quick turn and profit-taking, oops, oh well. But if you're buying and holding expecting the Ripple technology to revolutionize bank transfers across national borders in the next few years, this is all part of the day-to-day volatility that's expected to occur while the technology develops. By the way, I decided to hedge my b
  12. The explanation is crystal clear, but now I have another question. I noticed that you're using the 1 day interval for your candles. However, I can plot the same data using intervals of 4 hours, 2 hours, 1 hour, 15 min, 5 min, etc. Does the same analysis apply to the other intervals? For example, if I'm day-trading and viewing 5 minute intervals, if I see three green candles in a row can I reasonably expect an uptick to continue for the next, I dunno, 15 minutes? Or is there something relevant about observing the 1-day trends?
  13. So? It's still maybe $8 billion in assets. A huge percentage of the assets in the world are illiquid.
  14. Tweet dated Oct 13, 2017. Here's what Fortune said about that ruling back in October: "A source familiar with the litigation, however, challenged the significance of the ruling, claiming the Delaware court had declined jurisdiction to hear the case, and that a legal fight would continue in New York or California." http://fortune.com/2017/10/13/blockchain-ripple-r3/ Brad Garlinghouse disputed that assessment in the October article, but now here's a comment from the latest Fortune article about the matter, dated Jan 9, 2018: "The outcome of the court fight in New York, which comes after
  15. Ok, so here's my current understanding of what is meant by "blockchain technology". This is Opus 2: Blockchain is a particular, public database management architecture and related protocols for updating, security, and verification that incorporates the following features: * distributed processing, data storage and decision-making * distributed, collaborative certification of data integrity * immutability of data records * cryptography guaranteeing personal anonymity and security * some degree of backwards auditability Thanks, all, and particularly Sukrim, for helping me gras
  16. Oh, wait, have I misunderstood? You mean, the blockchain might not be auditable back to its original state? Just back to the state as of the last "pruning" event?
  17. Ah. Ok, so "blockchain" implies cryptography but not necessary cell-level encryption. Thanks, that's a worthwhile distinction of which I was ignorant. Yes, but that's just a feature relevant to the application retrieving the latest value. It is still the case that for the entire database the current value of each cell is the original value of that cell plus all transactions in the database affecting that cell. That's what makes it auditable. Maybe I should add "auditable" to my definition.
  18. By "group-level" I mean that the verification and certification of the integrity of the data is achieved by common action of the servers on the network, not by a single, central hub. No, I included it in the term you didn't grasp, "group-level" verification. No encryption in bitcoin? Why is it "crypto" currency, then? I thought that the beauty of the scheme was that the individual owner held the key to his own records, making it unavailable to others. Where am I confused? By "superseding," what I mean is that new versions of the accepted database are achie
  19. So, I'm reaching some clarity (I think) about the meaning of "blockchain" as a technology. Let me take my first stab at a formal definition: "Blockchain" denotes a specific type of database structure coupled with a protocol for updating and verification that incorporates the following features: * distributed data and decision-making; no official, central server * group-level verification of accepted records to keep distributed versions in synch * cell-level encryption * hashing to connect related links in the data chain * immutability of data records; values are superseded rathe
  20. Ah, right. Yes, this clears up my confusion; we're not talking about the physical data structure on the disk(s), we're talking about the architecture of the protocol. Yes, I suspected that this was the case. As every Grammar Nazi has learned to his or her chagrin, in the end the Public, that Great Beast, wins. Thanks for the clarity.
  21. This is bilge from ideological purists. They want to see the Evil Capitalist™ banking system demolished, and love blockchain solely for its democratic nature, not for it's improved functionality. The very idea of blockchain being used by the very banks they had hoped to bury is so odious to them that they invoke Biblical images, even though "Bible" is even more odious to most of them than is "capitalist." Ignore it. It will discourage a few of the idly curious but will not affect long-term use of the technology. Let 'em yap.
  22. I'm an old IT guy with some understanding of the theory of DBMS systems as they developed. I understand the technical difference between a sequential file, a chain of records, and a file with hashed indexes. I've looked at simple update routines to add/change/delete individual data items in a chained dbms. I know it's old school, but hey, that's how we all learned. I understood that one of the advantages of Ripple's protocol was that it wasn't a blockchain like bitcoin but rather a ledger, so current displays don't have to traverse the entire history of records. So I get a little confused w
  23. Them using the ripple protocol (xCurrent) strengthens the Ripple company, as Ripple gets income by selling their API (Application Program Interface). Also, the more they sell the protocol, the closer it comes to being an international standard. And the more Ripple becomes a standard, the more its reputation is going to get reflected in the value of XRP. So they're not completely disconnected. If I've got this right, using the xCurrent protocol suite allows banks to save time and expense by bypassing national clearinghouses and allowing more direct point-to-point transfer of funds. T
  24. Oh. Well, yes, that makes sense. They only had to cover the initial value, not the gains. Plus, that bitfinex'ed fellow is alleging outright fraud. Yikes. And, like the MBS bundles, none of this is a problem so long as the value of the coins is going up, but it creates an immediate and possibly financially fatal problem when the values start going down. Pretty scary.
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