BabyNeedsShoes reacted to spiras in Chat: Possible failure scenarios
I think you read the FUD too much. All of your points above are inaccurate.
First, Brad has consistently said 3-5 years. Recently he was on panel (davos I believe) where he again stated 5 years.
1. I think Ripple's long term strategy is the best one. However, everyone wants to make Bank in the short term. Ripple is trying to change the payment world. Give it time. Even the Internet and smart phones didn't take off right away. Years.
Further, Ripple doesn't own XRP or the XRPL. It's not theirs. Sure they own a lot of XRP, but not the network. It's distributed. They are only one player in the game. Don't want to wait on them, then what about SBI? How about R3? They are players too. Why not follow them? Why not start your own project instead of waiting on Ripple to make you rich?
2. Ripple owning a lot of XRP allows them to help build the ecosystem. Brad had said it many times.. they see themselves as a custodian. There are ways to change the distribution of XRP, and the more people that have an ownership or a stake in it, the greater the value will be. But as Bob said, giving away free money in a 'fair' way is not as easy as it seems. As David Schwartz said, when they have given away XRP, they find that it's not long before that XRP ends up consolidated into smaller amounts of wallets.
Once Ripple decides how to distribute it in the best way to build the ecosystem and provide liquidity at the same time, without tanking the price, then I'm sure they will do what they need to. If they just give it away to make the retail speculators happy and don't do it the right way, they can't get it back. Years.
3. Jed is in control of MORE XLM than Ripple is of XRP but they don't publish it. In addition, XLM is inflationary increasing the supply a couple of percent per year. Also, Jed has been known to dump and tank markets. Documented. This isn't to say that XLM won't have some success, but I believe XRP has more of an upside. Invest in both if you want. They're both cheap right now if you are unsure..
4. stable coins dont make more sense. They are pegged to something giving risk. Think of it this way. If a coin is pegged to USD, every single time the US government prints more money, they are stealing from everyone who has money invested in 'stable coins'. The value will decrease. This is constant downward pressure on VALUE even if it is still worth $1 USD. This is important. The US government is not going to stop printing money, with a 1T deficit and 21T+ debt. Investing in stable coins guarantees you will lost money. And yes, someone had to hold stable coins for market making. Someone is going to lose. And this doesn't even touch the fact that not everyone wants USD or MXN or whatever your pegging the coin to. You still need to be able to trade it. Also, if money goes through US, there are additional AML and KYC laws that prevent trading between partners. In short, stable coins are NOT a viable solution.
5. What? Why do you think your know their motivation? This is simply an opinion you have based on your own perception. Ripple is not a singular person. It's hundreds, thousands of people in the organization and investors and their organizations. Who knows how many.. and they are all represented in varying levels of stake. Ripple is a business. Businesses don't think like individuals. They are always motivated to make a profit or even to make a dent in the universe. If an individual had enough money to 'not be motivated' and money is their only motivation, I would suggest that they would likely retire/quit and then the next young and upcoming buck (or buckett) would step up with drive.
6. Who knows about another Bull run. However this cycle has repeated itself at least 6 times since BTC started. Each cycle drawing in more speculators and far surpassing the previous cycle after massive pullbacks. Is it going to stop at 6? Why would it? If you walked up to 20 random people that you don't know and asked them if they've ever heard of XRP, probably 19 of them would say no. That's 95% of the population that hasn't even heard of the world changing potential. How many of those 19, if you could spent the time to get them to fully understand how the world of finance works and exactly what XRPs potential is, would be interested in investing. 5? 10? Who knows, but clearly the general population is oblivious the the world of digital assets. When you are able to walk up to random people on the street and have intelligent conversations about digital assets just as you would about the Internet or their cell phone, then you might be at the point of a saturated speculative retail market. At that point, you would probably be looking exclusively at utility to drive price action. We are a LONG way away from that. Go test it out on 20 people and come back and tell us what you find.
Yes, we might all be fools for investing in XRP. We might be wrong, maybe Chain link or XLM will change the world. Who knows.
But for my money, I'm betting on XRP.
If I'm wrong, sure I lose money - no big deal.
But If I'm right, the world changes and I get to be a small part of it. Oh yeah.. and I retire.
You make your decision. But stop listening to the haters. Many have their own personal financial agendas in action.
BabyNeedsShoes reacted to Banjo in Chat: Possible failure scenarios
In the interests of navigating Falsifiability and testing our biases, could you please expand on some potential scenarios in which Ripple's vision for XRP might fail? Or perhaps list some assumptions (on which the success of XRP hinges) that may be incorrect?
I'm confident in the strength of my investments, and new to the forum, so I'm happy to take the hit in reputation to post this. I think there's always benefit to exploring a contrarian position, especially when it comes from someone with as much knowledge and insight as yourself.
Thanks again, and sorry if this offends or upsets anyone!
BabyNeedsShoes reacted to JoelKatz in Hi! I'm Bob
No, nothing like that.
Community credit is about "money" arising from interactions between peers rather than between issuers and users.
For example, suppose you do something for me and I allow you to "owe me one". The idea is for this to act as a currency. Someone who wants something from me (and who I don't trust enough to let them owe me one) wants me to owe them one rather than owing you one. So if they do something for you, you could give them the "marker" you got when you did me a favor and now I owe them a favor. These "markers" can function as a currency.
It's kind of like a system where all that exists is balances between people. You may trust me enough to extend me credit. So when I want something from you, you may let me owe you $50 but no more. You now have a +$50 balance and I have a -$50 balance. Now if I want something else from you, I'm out of credit. So I need to find someone who either you owe money to or who will let you borrow from them and give them something for which they in return will restore my credit.
So, for example, say you have Alice, Bill, and Charlie. Alice is highly trusted because she has a valuable commercial network and both Bill and Charlie are willing to let Alice owe them money. Alice needs something from Charlie and in exchange Charlie lets Alice owe her $20.
So now, Charlie owes Alice $20. Alice can borrow from Bill or Charlie.
Now, say Bill wants something from Alice. Alice won't extend Bill any credit because she doesn't trust him. But Bill can give Charlie $20 and in exchange for the $20 Alice owes him and now Alice owes $20 to Bill. Bill can pay Alice $20 with her own IOU.
This is precisely how all assets other than XRP work in the XRP Ledger. They're always balances between accounts, either account can extend credit to the other, and balances can "ripple" through accounts.
By having XRP in the mix, credit can be settled and restored immediately. For example, Alice can place an offer to give out a $10 IOU for 32 XRP. Now if someone owes Alice $10, they can buy a $10 IOU from Alice and the two IOUs cancel out. This will restore their credit.
This is an implementation of Ryan Fugger's original vision of money arising out of community relationships and providing people a network of assets and credits they can contribute to and draw off of. Arthur's genius was to provide a system of gateways to allow the system to be easily connected to external financial systems to help avoid the problem of long paths or unidirectional flows.
BabyNeedsShoes reacted to Lawsuit in Hi! I'm Bob
Quoting this to
A. Say thanks to @BobWay because this has been a fantastic read thus far
B. Say hello and thanks to @Hodor who is actually the person responsible for my investing in XRP. Your informative posts (back before your blog / when you used to post here primarily) are actually the reason I initially invested in XRP back in the middle of 2017.
Much love to you both.
BabyNeedsShoes reacted to BobWay in Hi! I'm Bob
This is a great couple of questions. I feel handicapped by not having a whiteboard to draw on in answering. Excuse my ASCII art...
The best way to think of XRP usage is in the context of Alice and Bob. But in the current world where neither Alice nor Bob know anything about XRP.
Alice is part of an ecosystem of payment senders. The Alice's of the world work their day jobs and receive and hold their money in the local fiat currency. (Alice) ----@ (Bank A) So in Ascii art, "Alice hold her money in an account at Bank A" Bob is part of an ecosystem of payment receivers. The Bob's of the world also hold their money in their local fiat currency. (Bank A) @----- (Bob). "Bob holds his money in an account at Bank B" In drawing it out, you ALWAYS end up with a graph. That graph tells you if and how money can flow and how much it will cost along each path option.
(Alice) ----@ (Bank A) @---- (Mark) ----@ (Bank B) @---- (Bob). "Mark holds accounts at both Bank A and Bank B" He allows money to flow through his accounts. Note: These are the types of diagrams the Ripple graph was intended to explore.
So notice that I didn't list XRP anywhere in the above diagram. That seems like it sucks at first. But it is worth realizing that what I've done goes beyond Alice and Bob as individuals. What I've done is connect EVERY customer of Bank A with EVERY customer at Bank B. Meaning I've connected two whole ecosystems.
If I replace the banks with something larger, then the payment potential gets larger.
(Alice) ----@ (SPEI) @---- (Mark) ----@ (IMPS) @---- (Bob). "Now anyone with a bank account in Mexico can send synchronized payments to anyone in India"
But what about XRP? Isn't Mark just going to get rich here trading fiat?
Yes, but the first step is to get money moving through OUR system (RippleNet). The least scary way (for banks) to do that is via fiat like they are used to.
XRP comes in as an alternate lower cost path.
(Alice) ----@ (SPEI) @----------------------- (Mark) ----------------------@ (IMPS) @---- (Bob) We want this path to cost more (SPEI) @---- (Mark) ----@ (XRP) @---- (Mak) ----@ (IMPS) We want this path to cost less You can add that path without upsetting the original topology. If a bank is scared of crypto they can pay more. if they want to pay less, they can route through crypto. I'll leave it to you to decide how long you think banks will want to pay more for transactions.
So a good way to think about Ripple's strategy is as multiple teams building out operational volume in different sections of the graph.
The xCurrent part of RippleNet is building out operation value on the top line. This includes growing the total pool of "Alices and Bobs". The xRapid part of RippleNet is building out the operation that will assure that the XRP path always costs less. Initially this looks like two disconnected ecosystems, Banks vs Payment Services. But I think it is more insightful to think about it as building operational mastery in different conceptual areas. The payment services xRapid is targeting already use the top line banking ecosystem. They are not closing their bank accounts. They are just augmenting them with additional lower cost paths. One you realize that, it become easer to see how banks can adopt these same lower cost paths with few additional operation changes.
With that as background, keep an eye on Japan, India, Mexico, and Canada. Then I'd start looking for large markets in South America and East Asia. As I mentioned in a previous post, any countries that are current clearing payments through US banks, but are at risk of "de-risking" account closure are very good candidates to use XRP. This allows them to dis-intermediate the correspondents looking to de-risk them.
Again, I don't have first hand knowledge of which partnerships are farthest along. But that is the way I analyze the larger financial ecosystem as a whole.
BabyNeedsShoes reacted to BobWay in Hi! I'm Bob
I'm not sure I'm qualified to use fancy words like "geopolitical" correctly. :-) But there are huge improvements coming to the structure of banking.
Please keep in mind that while I think of myself as a reasonably smart guy, I'm by no means smart about everything. However, in my various positions at Ripple, a lot of much smarter people than me showed up in our office to tell me the details of their particular problems. They then left it to me to figure out if Ripple or its technologies could help. That was one of my key contributions to the company. I could almost always figure out a way to deploy Ripple technologies to solve other people's hard problems.
So "geopolitically" speaking, one of the weirdest things about banking is how the international relationships are structured. This is true especially among the smaller countries. Take a random made up example. Say Alice lives in Barbados and want to do a business transaction with Bob in Saint Lucia. It is just a standard two party business deal for services rendered. But Alice uses BBD and Bob uses XCD. So how do their banks settle that transaction?
Well it turns out in many cases they use USD. That sentence sounds pretty sensible not earth shaking to anyone... But how does that really work? Well it turns out that important banks in Barbados keep "correspondent" accounts with a large US bank. Let's say Citi in this case. And some large bank in Sant Lucia also keeps a correspondent account with a US bank. Let's say BofA in that case. The settlement actually happens by the Barbados bank telling Citi to wire money through the FedWire system to the St Lucia's account at BofA. These requests are transmitted via SWIFT.
But the crazy thing is that US law says that both Citi and BofA need to screen the transaction between Alice and Bob for compliance with US laws! And if a bad transaction slips through, both Citi and BofA can be fined huge amounts. So in effect, whether Alice in Barbados can do business with Bob in St Lucia becomes dependent on whether or not US banks want to allow it. Even though the transaction doesn't involve US jurisdiction at all!
The side effect of the US bank's risk in these transactions is that they've started closing the correspondent banking accounts for entire countries. The risk is just seen as too high for the reward (fees) that they can charge. This is called in banking jargon, "the de-risking problem".
A bridge currency like XRP changes that dynamic dramatically. Transaction that don't involve the US (or other third countries) don't have to travel through their systems to settle. That allows people to stop jumping through third party regulatory hoops and just get one with doing business.
I hope that counts as "geopolitical"!
BabyNeedsShoes reacted to BobWay in Hi! I'm Bob
Hello all. Just wanted to introduce myself. I'm Bob Way, formerly of Ripple. Thank you in advance for allowing me to join your forum.
Back in the early days of crypto I was pretty active in the Bitcointalk and Ripple communities (under the username "Red"). In fact my community participation was what directly led to me going to work for Chris and the gang at OpenCoin. I made a lot of good friend in the forums five years back. I'm hoping to make some new ones now.
BabyNeedsShoes reacted to xrphilosophy in Time is running out, invest or miss out
This last comment is very reasonable in my opinion. We know that XRP is a fantastic tech and is and will be implemented globally. There's no question at this point. It's not speculation. Though exactly what effect the use of the tech has upon the price of XRP is, as always, purely speculative, and only speculative. There has been no real value assigned to XRP despite all the complicated mathematical conjectures. If this, then that, is all we have via the math. And logic may not apply for the price- meaning money supply, use case, volume, etc may not form a legit price and it may stay speculative for awhile despite use case. We just don't know right now. We can guess, but we don't know.
I will say this though- the Nasdaq index, Coinbase, all the other global exchanges, Fidelity (whenever that happens), Bakkt/ICE, SBI, and all the banks and monetary authorities, R3 wouldn't be touting it, listing it, buying it if it was a piece of junk, telling me that someone(s) somewhere intend to not only use XRP but make some serious money with it. What that means- 3x, 5x, 10x, 100x, 1000x- I cannot predict. But money can be made here.
Except for Francis Coppola! We know she doesn't like money or profitable gains, but prefers to sing for her weekly soup and bread. Which is fine. Street performaers have always been in existence. Clowns, magicians, snakeoil salesman. It's part of culture. I have no problem with this.
Tempered expectations are always less stressful to be sure. Makes for sound investing too.
BabyNeedsShoes reacted to invest2lose in Bearableguy123 Thread
I think well see institution fomo next bullrun. We are starting to see retirement funds starting to dip their toes in. Along with the inevitable bitcoin etf. And this will also cause retail to jump back in. Plus wasnt it like only 1% of the worlds population participating in the 2017 run? We also have to compare this with the dotcom era which hit a couple trillion. Are we to say a global asset class wont do the same if not more?
BabyNeedsShoes reacted to KaaKaRmA in Bearableguy123 Thread
Institutional money will eventually come but in what capacity? I could see Bitcoin and/or crypto being an asset class that they’ll wrap up in a portfolio, which would help the market. Does XRP benefit from this? I suppose if it rises with that market. As a whole though, XRP is a bridge asset. Many banks or institutions that’s will use it for its intended purpose will not hold or need to hold. It’ll be very high risk investment holding it on their books when it’s not needed. Now some many hold it for long term value, but that’s an entirely different scenario.
To your point, yes, institutional funds will help raise prices, but will it create a bull run frenzie? That I’m not convinced of on either side.
BabyNeedsShoes reacted to lucky in Bearableguy123 Thread
You’re forgetting that the next class of investors will be institutions. Even with them just dipping their toe in crypto will dwarf what a bunch of “delusional” nerds have been investing so far. The 2018 dip will be barely noticable on the charts after the next wave.
BabyNeedsShoes reacted to XRPLearner in Chinese new year is here, apologies needed
"apologies needed" haha GTFO...if you need apologies for self satisfaction than somebody needs to set parental controls on your computer and block you from entering mature websites. HAHAHAHAH GO AWAY dude, nobody wants that type of attitude here. Go see if you can get the right shaped blocks in the right shaped holes you child
BabyNeedsShoes reacted to Hodor in Convincing The Muggles: Mainstream Crypto Adoption
Blog URL: https://xrpcommunity.blog/convincing-the-muggles-mainstream-crypto-adoption/
How do we make crypto friendly to those outside the market? I answer this question and cover all the latest news impacting XRP in today's blog!
𝐆𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐥 𝐂𝐫𝐲𝐩𝐭𝐨 𝐍𝐞𝐰𝐬: A new study calls for a $9 trillion dollar digital banking market cap; and an SEC Commissioner publishes her recommendations for crypto rules of the road.
𝐑𝐢𝐩𝐩𝐥𝐞 𝐍𝐞𝐰𝐬: The Asian Banker publishes an interview with Navin Gupta; Eric van Miltenburg speaks on a panel discussion at Binance Blockchain Singapore in late January; and Ripple adds eleven new educational programs to their UBRI partners list.
𝐗𝐑𝐏 𝐍𝐞𝐰𝐬: The number of XRP (funded) wallets breaks 1.5 million; Bitcointrade adds support for XRP; and Abra indicates that XRP holders will be able to purchase securities with their holdings in the future.
I hope you enjoy the read: Please feel free to share my blog with a friend or share it on any other platform - and thanks for doing so!
My blog announcement links on other platforms:
Twitter Reddit r/Ripple Reddit r/CryptoCurrency Reddit r/CryptoMarkets Reddit r/xrp Reddit r/RippleTalk Reddit r/alternativecoin Bitcointalk - alt coin sub forum Bitcointalk - XRP speculation thread
BabyNeedsShoes reacted to Palerider in I’m out!!
I think crypto is way too small to be compared to the .COM bubble. In time, sure....now, no. I real bubble is when “institutional” folks get their hands on it.
That being said, park some disposable money into a crypto you deem worthy and wait it out. For me, crypto has never been murkier then it is now.