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jbjnr last won the day on January 21

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  1. Just seen the other 300m went into escrow too a few minutes ago, that takes the total to 800m for the month - more in line with expectations I suppose. Must also mean the 1B for coil is coming from somewhere else, or later... 2023-10-01 rp6aTJmW3nq1aKt3Jmuz4DPRxksT5PBjpH 2019-07-01 500.0 rsjFB8mPWqiZgPUaVh8XYqdfa59PE2d5LG 2019-07-01 100.0 2019-08-01 400.0 2023-11-01 rp6aTJmW3nq1aKt3Jmuz4DPRxksT5PBjpH 2019-08-01 400.0 2019-09-01 100.0 rsjFB8mPWqiZgPUaVh8XYqdfa59PE2d5LG 2019-09-01 500.0 2023-12-01 rp6aTJmW3nq1aKt3Jmuz4DPRxksT5PBjpH 2019-09-01 200.0 [51 rows x 1 columns] +----------+---------------+ | Month | Re-escrowed | |----------+---------------| | 2018-Feb | 900 | | 2018-Mar | 900 | | 2018-Apr | 900 | | 2018-May | 900 | | 2018-Jun | 900 | | 2018-Jul | 900 | | 2018-Aug | 900 | | 2018-Sep | 800 | | 2018-Oct | 800 | | 2018-Nov | 800 | | 2018-Dec | 800 | | 2019-Jan | 800 | | 2019-Feb | 800 | | 2019-Mar | 700 | | 2019-Apr | 700 | | 2019-May | 700 | | 2019-Jun | 700 | | 2019-Jul | 700 | | 2019-Aug | 800 | | 2019-Sep | 800 | +----------+---------------+
  2. Take a look at the two wallets that host the current round of escrows https://bithomp.com/explorer/rp6aTJmW3nq1aKt3Jmuz4DPRxksT5PBjpH https://bithomp.com/explorer/rsjFB8mPWqiZgPUaVh8XYqdfa59PE2d5LG Each month, a slab of money (usually around 500m into each) gets moved in, then escrowed, These movements are payments and appear on the ledger as such and consequently will appear in the ledger payment volume. Today, there were 300m and 500m moved into these wallets, the 500m chunk was escrowed right away, the 300m chunk is still sitting there. (The escrow transaction does not appear as a payment, moving the money in - or out - does). At the end of the month, the tokens are released and moved (another payment) into another account and this will also appear on the ledger as a payment. [I would not bother posting these daily payment volumes because they bear almost no relation to the xRapid activity. The volumes going through bitso/bitstamp/etc are very small and completely swamped by other payments like the ones above - which are a bit larger than average, but other large transactions are always going on as well. When the (suspected xRapid) traffic on the corridors we know about starts to rise, we'll post here to warn you and you can take more of an interest in them].
  3. Only 500m gone into escrow so far. Another 300m is sitting in rp6aTJmW3nq1aKt3Jmuz4DPRxksT5PBjpH but hasn't been escrowed. No doubt the 1B earmarked for Coil/Xpring/Whatever is involved in some way in the reduced escrow total this month. I'll wait a few days and check again if any more goes in. (The Coil donation messes up our guesswork of how much is being bought institutionally off the exchanges - if there was only one outlet for xrp then we'd know every month how much was going out via sales, but we can't be sure if they sold a ton, or are keeping it ready for coil etc). 2023-10-01 rp6aTJmW3nq1aKt3Jmuz4DPRxksT5PBjpH 2019-07-01 500.0 rsjFB8mPWqiZgPUaVh8XYqdfa59PE2d5LG 2019-07-01 100.0 2019-08-01 400.0 2023-11-01 rp6aTJmW3nq1aKt3Jmuz4DPRxksT5PBjpH 2019-08-01 400.0 rsjFB8mPWqiZgPUaVh8XYqdfa59PE2d5LG 2019-09-01 500.0 +----------+---------------+ | Month | Re-escrowed | |----------+---------------| | 2018-Feb | 900 | | 2018-Mar | 900 | | 2018-Apr | 900 | | 2018-May | 900 | | 2018-Jun | 900 | | 2018-Jul | 900 | | 2018-Aug | 900 | | 2018-Sep | 800 | | 2018-Oct | 800 | | 2018-Nov | 800 | | 2018-Dec | 800 | | 2019-Jan | 800 | | 2019-Feb | 800 | | 2019-Mar | 700 | | 2019-Apr | 700 | | 2019-May | 700 | | 2019-Jun | 700 | | 2019-Jul | 700 | | 2019-Aug | 800 | | 2019-Sep | 500 | +----------+---------------+
  4. What you say might turn out to be true - but there are a lot of people betting the other way. ILP changes everything. It allows currency swaps to be sourced from any provider that is making an offer. The existing correspondent banking system locks those offers into a small set of providers who can charge fees that are 'competitive' compared to other providers, bu possibly not 'optimal'. One can already see that alternatives to liquidity have sprung up via the large number of payment providers that are out there operating alongside the current system, and these payment providers are not doing badly and the correspondent system is under stress. Once all the existing providers have signed up to ripplenet, the costs of x-border transfers will be reduced by the competing offers from all providers. yes they can, and this is the biggest issue with xRapid. Once the existing forex traders jump onto ILP and ripplenet, then they can still use the framework behind the existing correspondent system to balance flows with their existing setup. Who cares if the ledger is updated from bank A to bank B and the trade happens, or if the XRP ledger is updated with a buy/sell xRapid pair. All that matters is that customer X gets a good rate, in a good time. Real time settlement will become the norm even for non crypto transactions because the bank ledger updates will become atomic too. The question of xRapid's success is defined 100% by "can it become cheaper than the existing system". All the money tied up with nostro/vostro will be shifted to 'liquidity on demand' and flow balancing across corridors. That on demand liquidity can be much smaller than the existing nostro/vostro because with real-time settlement, balancing can be done in real time and the costs to everyone will be massively reduced, but it doesn't have to use XRP for that to happen, it can still use fiat. However, XRP and the ledger do provide a very low cost way of achieving this, with zero counterparty risks, and if volatility of XRP is reduced, then parties will be willing to hold it and use it so it stands as good a chance as any other of being one of the winning solutions.
  5. But where will they get this 8% from? I think @Grendel touched on the answer in his reply too - traditional investments that provide a yield are where the money has always gone - why should this change. Stablecoins are - well - stable - even if backed by currencies or securities (libra?) that appreciate in value, they can't generate 8% indefinitely - unless there's a ponzi scheme somewhere (BTC). I suppose you are implying that all the money going into these yield bearing opportunities is going to be going into tokenized versions of those yield bearing items and this is where the drive in the market will come from. When the conversation flips back to xrp, then I _can_ see it as an investment in this category, but not at a rate of 8% - if money markets take your tokens and pay you interest on them, they are making the %8 by using your tokens as an exchange medium and they earn on the spread (but at a low rate) - this gives the token true 'value' in the traditional sense, and part of the spread that is earned by the markets goes into pushing up the price - in this way xrp becomes a true commodity and an appreciating asset (at least until the market saturates). For other tokens - I don't see the mechanism that gives them underlying value and if the 8% is coming from the underlying tokenized asset yields, then nothing has really changed - or has it?
  6. Thank you for a though provoking and interesting read. The kind of scenario involving a credit or banking crisis that you are painting is unlikely to have an impact of this kind on crypto for a decade (or two?) don't you think? There simply isn't enough value in the system at the current time for it to be more than a blip on any financial radar (and even the slightest whiff in advance of something like this would cause the markets to crash so low that there'd be nothing left to take - and after all, since the current digital assets are not backed by anything anyway, they are worthless in most cases). Greek bonds having a haircut during the euro crisis seems a long time ago and that was only 100bn - in a system valued far far higher. What sort of timescale are you imagining for events like this to become possible - currently the market for loans and derivatives is too small. Do you see things accelerating very quickly once 'digital assets' have proven themselves to actually be useful (or more strictly, do you see this only playing out in a market for tokenized assets of the kind we have not really seen yet - such as stocks/bonds etc?)
  7. Thanks @hallwaymonitor and @xrpscan - I'll add that xrpscan api call to my list and update my tables. I hope that fills in some of the more interesting wallets I have wondered about. I'll report back if I find anything worth sharing.
  8. No, I don't think so. I run plots of daily transactions and break them down into different corridors to see if I can track the total flow of (possible) xRapid activity and I also see a downtrend in payments of small sizes. There has been an uptick of larger payments, but I'm not convinced it has anything to do with xRapid because I have been assuming that remittances will start small and gradually grow in size. I was planing on doing a write up, but don't seem to find the time. Should probably read less of the rubbish posted on this site recently. It's possible that someone is using some of the corridors for real x-border transactions rather than just remittances, but I can't be sure. What I'm really looking at is possible new corridors opening up before they are announced rather than just the bitso/bitstamp/coins.ph exchanges because I'm sure testing will go on on new ones before we hear about it. I see activity that goes to addresses that don't appear as exchanges in the bithomp directory, would love to know some wallet addresses of SBI for example as I have no idea where this stuff comes from unless someone can link a wallet to an exchange/other. Does anyone know where the whalebot gets is address/name lookups from? I sometimes wonder if it has a different dictionary than the bithomp one. Thanks
  9. It's a back of the envelope estimate of the base trade volume derived from the mean volume with peaks/troughs (volatility) filtered out. It has no fundamental significance - it is more reliable in some sense that some TA and certainly more than reading the tea leaves, but the volatility is actually dampened out by arbitrage across exchanges (and across currencies as the XRP/USD rate will dominate globally and be arbitraged across MXN too) and so although it is an interesting indicator of activity, as another poster pointed out, it can go negative and it is subject to noise that is introduced by a) arbitrage, b) pump/dump c) natural fluctuations in price d) fluctuations in volume. The intercept that gives the 'liquidity index' is derived from a least squares fit/correlation between volatility and volume - if one of those changes whilst the other stays put, the intercept can swing wildly - I seem to recall he averages numbers for the month so it should be reasonably stable and smoothed over a decent amount of time. It ought to give a rough idea of trade activity. I will look at the derivation again later and report back if I change my mind...
  10. For those of us who don't take any of this very seriously and have unfortunately forgotten what the prediction was - could you please remind us what was supposed to happen 7 days ago - and might happen sometime soon instead. Are BTC or XRP going up, or is one or both of them going down? Or is it something far more sinister...
  11. 1E-4 dollars per second, with 1 million people watching for 1 second would be 1E2 dollars, and there are 60*60*24 seconds per day, gives 8.64million dollars per day. To earn 864$ per month with 10 minutes per reader per day would require a readership of 864/(1E-4 * 10 * 60 *30) = 480 readers.
  12. It's very worrying. Option 1 : the scammers were busted, some got away, one or more of them had the key to the account and has now moved the xrp to a safe account that only they have the key to. These will eventually be offloaded and it won't be stopped before transfers to exchanges happen - and then it's very hard to control as we've seen (for example) in the gatehub incident. Option 2 : the scammers were busted, the authorities got the key and have moved the xrp to a new safe account that only they have the key to. We're slightly better off, but the xrp will still be sold en masse eventually, hopefully a long time in the future. If the authorities had control, I would have expected them to use a multisign account (the sum involved is so huge that trusting any one person/group/dept with the key is a problem). Option 1 seems more probable to me. Very worrying.
  13. https://www.bbc.com/news/entertainment-arts-49432817 Well I guess there's one big name we can cross off our streaming music content monetization candidate list. "Taylor Swift has said she intends to record new versions of her hit songs after her back catalogue was bought by pop manager Scooter Braun." (Bold added). I don't know anything about him except that he's involved with Xpring and that I suppose she's not going to be making any new records for him soon ...
  14. Thanks. I'm aware of the ccxt library (not using it at the moment) - what I'd really like to know is where to get the short data from. Are you saying that bitfinex has short data available?
  15. Does anyone know a source from where I can download xrpusd short data such as this using an http request and get json or equivalent data back. I'd like to add it to my analysis and plotting tools for my xrp related research. Thanks
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