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jbjnr

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jbjnr last won the day on January 21

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  1. Still haven't written it up and am about to go away for a couple of weeks, so it isn't going to happen any time soon - apologies.
  2. Recently an xrp backed stablecoin was proposed on this forum by Joel Katz. This would be IMHO a great solution to the problem of institutions wanting to hold xrp. It wouldn't in and of itself solve the price stability problems, but it would protect holders from those variations. Other who know the markets better will no doubt be able to testify that derivatives would help stabilize the market. Other stablecoins will be used for sure and the game is affoot to see which technology wins out. It may be that ODL doesn't end up being cheaper than the existing system and xrp will fail. Trading USD.jpmorgan or MXN.bankofmexico or GBP.bankofengland and others might end up working well enough. What ripplenet appears to do is bring everyone on the system into a global currency/payments trading platform in a way that has never been done before and someone might offer liquidity via these kind of tokens on the network. The best technology will win.
  3. This seems entirely reasonable to me. There are many 'variables' that come into play that can swing the volume requirements by orders of magnitude. For example, if the whole 40billion tokens in circulation at the moment are 'liquid' then clearly supply is abundant and this lowers the price because it is 'easy' for the market to provide as much as is needed. If 39billion is locked up in private wallets and the remaining 1billion distributed between 20 exchanges each with traffic of 10+million $ equivalents per day, then the price will be higher. I worry greatly about massive price fluctuations that can be triggered by a) ODL volume rises, causing xrp price to rise b) investors see price rising and know that reducing supply causes further rises, so they buy and hold xrp c) prices rises more, leading to speculative feedback bubble d) investors sell, causing crash in price It is absolutely essential that xrp remains liquid so that b->c->d scenarios are prevented. Currently we have seen one major bubble at the end of 2017 (and that was not even fueled by ODL) - since then sales have been sufficient and relaxed the price (and there are presumably reserves held by MMs contracted to ripple that can be released as needs arise). The total capitalization of xrp is currently only $10billion or thereabouts. When there is $0.5billion flowing daily through xrp, it is inevitable that the total capitalization will be much much higher. Providing ODL remains cheaper than nostro/vostro (including all forms of digital fiat and IOUs). For that proviso, we await the results of moneygram+friends.
  4. Market makers earn money through buying and selling with a spread. As ODL volume increases, the amount of money being made by market makers increases (given a fixed spread). This raises the price of XRP because it becomes cost effective to pay more for XRP and outbid other market makers who are also earning $ from the spread. There is a lower bound on the price of XRP that is proportional to the ODL volume. When the daily volume enters the $100m+ per day we will (I believe) start to see a noticable (and possibly dramatic) effect on price. This is based on my own theory and models but I have yet to see a counter argument that negates the price rise effect. One might argue that the spread will simply drop as volume increases, but it does not need to - as long as the costs overall are better than the existing nostro/vostro costs then ODL can outcompete and spread does not need to drop further. Currently we have a couple of corridors with total volume under $1m per day, when this goes up by a factor or 10+ and we have 10+ times as many corridors, I am quite confident that we will see price increases. (My numbers are not exact).
  5. I disagree, I found the article to be quite interesting and the author clearly knows far more about the payments companies and has researched them more deeply than nearly all the people posting to this forum. His/Her flippant comment about printing xrp should be read in context and isn't so far from the truth - they have 50+billion remaining to sell that came from thin air and the money raised does need to be spent somewhere. For those of us outside the payments industry the investment into moneygram seems like a very good idea, but the author illustrates it is clearly a company with a troubled history that has failed to capitalize on potential markets and opportunities. It has taken them the best part of a decade to move to 'digital' payments (Not sure really what they mean, but it certainly doesn't bode well for rapid switchover to ODL). The author is simply concluding that ripple might actually be investing in a badly run company, but hey - why not. they have money to spare.
  6. Sales have dropped and escrow returns have increased correspondingly. This month we are back to 900m returned. FinishAfter Account Date 2022-08-01 rhEwsCWDCVxDiKxGJAKM6VuXC8EFtJP5gQ 2018-02-01 500.0 rncKvRcdDq9hVJpdLdTcKoxsS3NSkXsvfM 2018-02-01 400.0 2018-03-01 100.0 2022-09-01 rhEwsCWDCVxDiKxGJAKM6VuXC8EFtJP5gQ 2018-03-01 500.0 rncKvRcdDq9hVJpdLdTcKoxsS3NSkXsvfM 2018-03-01 300.0 ... ... 2023-12-01 rp6aTJmW3nq1aKt3Jmuz4DPRxksT5PBjpH 2019-09-01 200.0 2019-10-01 300.0 rsjFB8mPWqiZgPUaVh8XYqdfa59PE2d5LG 2019-10-01 500.0 2024-01-01 rp6aTJmW3nq1aKt3Jmuz4DPRxksT5PBjpH 2019-11-01 500.0 rsjFB8mPWqiZgPUaVh8XYqdfa59PE2d5LG 2019-11-01 400.0 [55 rows x 1 columns] +----------+---------------+ | Month | Re-escrowed | |----------+---------------| | 2018-Feb | 900 | | 2018-Mar | 900 | | 2018-Apr | 900 | | 2018-May | 900 | | 2018-Jun | 900 | | 2018-Jul | 900 | | 2018-Aug | 900 | | 2018-Sep | 800 | | 2018-Oct | 800 | | 2018-Nov | 800 | | 2018-Dec | 800 | | 2019-Jan | 800 | | 2019-Feb | 800 | | 2019-Mar | 700 | | 2019-Apr | 700 | | 2019-May | 700 | | 2019-Jun | 700 | | 2019-Jul | 700 | | 2019-Aug | 800 | | 2019-Sep | 800 | | 2019-Oct | 800 | | 2019-Nov | 900 | +----------+---------------+
  7. Option 3: There are probably thousands (more, less, it doesn't really matter) of automated trading bots working on crypto exchange all over the world, all looking for buy/sell signals that will trigger their next trade. The combined effects of thousands of traders, retail and other causes noise on all the token valuations. News releases, twitter messages, discussions on forums, all cause random buy and sell actions from traders and sometimes, the bots will kick-in thinking that the volume has increased or the price is about to rise. All the bots making a decision within seconds of each other can produce a cascade of buy/sell orders that can in turn trigger a flash crash or a sudden pump within seconds or minutes as more and more buy/sell triggers are activated. Programmed sell instructions from holders of large amounts no doubt contribute to this, but it doesn't have to be the illuminati manipulating the price every time.
  8. The table I pasted above includes 'raw' data on potential corridors, this include arbitrage bots/etc. I filter the data down to try to identify ones that are potential xRapid traffic. The plot showing daily amounts for $10k to $100k payments is only including traffic to bitso and coins.ph.
  9. Since you insist on referring to it - here's the update for today's xRapid activity on my chart (the UTC clock going past midnight means my graphs can update - I only take integral day summations of data). It looks like a new high on the current payments trend. (I will write up my tracking methodology and post it to an xrpcommunity blog soon. I have an account now, but been too busy to write).
  10. MGI can balance the flows itself, or some other payment provider might be buying the XRP with MXN. That's really the beauty of the system, any businesses in mexico that have MXN and need to pay bills in USD will be clients of either a bank, or a payment provider. If MGI has partnerships with payment providers that are involved in the return path, then great, the system forms a closed loop. Gradually they can increase the amount of flow in both directions as they bring more clients at both ends into the loop. If this were the case (direct partnerships with payment providers), then they wouldn't need to worry so much about liquidity because they're effectively providing it themselves. The alternative is that some other/external payment provider focusing on traffic in the other direction will take advantage of ability to buy XRP for MXN and sell them for USD (mexican businesses importing from the USA that need to pay bills will be using a payment provider of this kind). This is partly why I am keeping track of payments on all corridors - I'm interested in seeing the flows build in any direction. Have a look at this table for example ... +---------------+---------------+------------+---------+----------+----------+----------+----------+------------+---------+-----------+ | source | destination | tag | trans | tr/day | active | unique | recent | day-bias | mean | std-dev | |---------------+---------------+------------+---------+----------+----------+----------+----------+------------+---------+-----------| | bitstamp | bitso | 22794384 | 3329 | 20.2 | 239 | 165 | 11 | 5.3 | 510.2 | 175.3 | | bitstamp | coins.ph | 967 | 4177 | 29.0 | 288 | 144 | 8 | 5.1 | 16.4 | 12.0 | | stake | rwU8rAiE2e | 1353112084 | 198 | 15.2 | 41 | 13 | 9 | 4.9 | 14.9 | 1.4 | | bitstamp | bitso | 47175592 | 444 | 11.4 | 63 | 39 | 12 | 4.0 | 20678.6 | 9317.2 | | okex | rDxfhNRgCD | 1000857472 | 116 | 6.4 | 35 | 18 | 13 | 3.2 | 12044.0 | 8264.8 | | rPUBiJcc9V | rav4ti22Ny | 2202787 | 544 | 8.9 | 71 | 61 | 12 | 2.9 | 1871.4 | 930.7 | | binance | rDxfhNRgCD | 1003531684 | 230 | 5.6 | 47 | 41 | 13 | 2.9 | 4883.5 | 877.5 | | binance | bitbank | 1037459 | 679 | 5.5 | 295 | 123 | 10 | 2.8 | 3211.8 | 1643.4 | | binance | upbit | 1613802152 | 406 | 5.6 | 131 | 73 | 8 | 2.7 | 3177.6 | 1826.3 | | binance | rDxfhNRgCD | 1000614389 | 216 | 5.5 | 47 | 39 | 12 | 2.5 | 13401.9 | 2497.4 | | bitstamp | coins.ph | 160728 | 10616 | 50.1 | 224 | 212 | 14 | 2.2 | 50.7 | 107.3 | | kraken | binance | 108112000 | 1434 | 5.9 | 295 | 244 | 11 | 2.1 | 346.1 | 597.3 | | ferma | razLtrbzXV | 60136612 | 130 | 5.7 | 33 | 23 | 8 | 2.1 | 96.8 | 79.2 | | rHUAEDchvG | rDxfhNRgCD | 1000614389 | 283 | 6.4 | 47 | 44 | 13 | 2.1 | 14136.5 | 1609.2 | | litebit | binance | 107749210 | 1100 | 17.2 | 63 | 64 | 14 | 2.0 | 396.5 | 1218.3 | | binance | btc markets | 100000004 | 4742 | 20.0 | 292 | 237 | 11 | 2.0 | 2266.2 | 2720.0 | | luckygames.io | bitso | 65886212 | 1062 | 12.3 | 290 | 86 | 9 | 2.0 | 56.2 | 185.0 | | binance | btcturk | 1659811 | 1318 | 5.7 | 295 | 233 | 12 | 1.9 | 1665.7 | 731.3 | | rMbWmirwEt | bitbank | 111613004 | 1388 | 10.7 | 198 | 130 | 14 | 1.8 | 1547.0 | 874.0 | | binance | upbit | 2077928104 | 1127 | 8.5 | 133 | 132 | 14 | 1.8 | 20477.4 | 4537.3 | | coins.ph | luckygames.io | 21057772 | 861 | 10.2 | 282 | 84 | 10 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 1.0 | | rMbWmirwEt | rav4ti22Ny | 2202787 | 285 | 7.9 | 35 | 36 | 14 | 1.7 | 1563.0 | 730.3 | | upbit | binance | 108770855 | 282 | 5.9 | 111 | 48 | 8 | 1.7 | 2843.1 | 793.9 | | rfYUJqRBZb | stake | 70526603 | 455 | 9.3 | 58 | 49 | 14 | 1.6 | 6.5 | 8.0 | | stake | coins.ph | 123200 | 232 | 6.3 | 45 | 37 | 13 | 1.6 | 17.7 | 3.9 | | binance | upbit | 2025761448 | 1285 | 10.0 | 133 | 128 | 12 | 1.6 | 9093.4 | 3162.6 | | binance | rNWWbLxbZR | 14266 | 736 | 5.6 | 182 | 131 | 10 | 1.6 | 13576.6 | 3607.3 | | bitso | bitstamp | 80025555 | 574 | 6.5 | 174 | 88 | 11 | 1.6 | 7433.6 | 5958.9 | | binance | btcturk | 602571 | 2024 | 7.9 | 295 | 255 | 13 | 1.6 | 7909.6 | 1896.5 | | binance | rstryhbE73 | 1562918 | 415 | 5.2 | 93 | 80 | 14 | 1.6 | 1822.4 | 814.7 | | okex | coinone | 1100974154 | 557 | 9.0 | 74 | 62 | 14 | 1.6 | 8633.0 | 5261.2 | | rHUAEDchvG | coinone | 951809054 | 260 | 5.1 | 53 | 51 | 13 | 1.5 | 14072.5 | 1574.6 | | upbit | rUMhAy8zEC | 167486 | 298 | 5.8 | 55 | 51 | 13 | 1.5 | 17607.4 | 1972.4 | | binance | upbit | 2188290729 | 1438 | 11.8 | 131 | 122 | 14 | 1.5 | 1402.3 | 349.5 | | digifinex | binance | 103672786 | 1356 | 8.0 | 232 | 170 | 14 | 1.5 | 2899.7 | 11932.9 | | binance | r9FnQZ8WLJ | 1086309 | 274 | 5.5 | 288 | 50 | 9 | 1.5 | 2478.3 | 1520.8 | | binance | upbit | 3873352362 | 608 | 5.3 | 133 | 115 | 14 | 1.5 | 50468.2 | 25780.9 | | binance | r9FnQZ8WLJ | 1985413 | 1302 | 13.3 | 108 | 98 | 13 | 1.5 | 6553.9 | 2474.3 | | rPUBiJcc9V | binance | 107059336 | 235 | 5.1 | 70 | 46 | 12 | 1.5 | 44808.8 | 13092.2 | | okex | upbit | 2982718121 | 470 | 8.2 | 74 | 57 | 14 | 1.5 | 8595.4 | 5069.8 | | rHUAEDchvG | upbit | 2077928104 | 526 | 9.7 | 53 | 54 | 14 | 1.5 | 17331.2 | 2127.1 | | raBmhBNmYF | bitstamp | 55336291 | 993 | 5.8 | 295 | 171 | 13 | 1.5 | 23623.7 | 55310.5 | | rPUBiJcc9V | r9FnQZ8WLJ | 1809716 | 625 | 10.2 | 68 | 61 | 11 | 1.4 | 1477.0 | 413.9 | | upbit | okex | 987131 | 276 | 5.1 | 74 | 54 | 13 | 1.4 | 8327.9 | 4624.0 | | binance | coinone | 951809054 | 1438 | 5.5 | 295 | 263 | 13 | 1.4 | 19423.8 | 4335.9 | | binance | kucoin | 1862060151 | 421 | 7.5 | 106 | 56 | 12 | 1.4 | 3566.8 | 1459.0 | | paribu | binance | 104281931 | 1452 | 6.7 | 292 | 217 | 14 | 1.3 | 2027.0 | 1883.1 | | upbit | rDxfhNRgCD | 1001184272 | 282 | 6.0 | 47 | 47 | 14 | 1.3 | 35707.1 | 14892.2 | | r9999t88Vt | huobi | 108431 | 944 | 7.3 | 147 | 130 | 14 | 1.3 | 534.9 | 436.9 | | binance | coinswitch | 1111 | 2806 | 36.0 | 77 | 78 | 14 | 1.3 | 492.2 | 1277.3 | | changenow | bittrex | 1533346507 | 213 | 5.8 | 37 | 37 | 14 | 1.3 | 259.7 | 1359.9 | | binance | huobi | 103937 | 1154 | 11.1 | 290 | 104 | 12 | 1.3 | 6030.1 | 3412.4 | | rPVWNhjQKn | huobi | 101923 | 407 | 11.3 | 58 | 36 | 8 | 1.3 | 154.8 | 195.2 | | kraken | coinbase pro | 3434336864 | 1462 | 7.9 | 238 | 184 | 13 | 1.3 | 3233.3 | 3196.4 | | r9999t88Vt | huobi | 108969 | 421 | 5.3 | 225 | 79 | 8 | 1.3 | 954.9 | 550.2 | | binance | rDxfhNRgCD | 1000580304 | 433 | 9.6 | 47 | 45 | 14 | 1.2 | 55244.3 | 24481.1 | | bitsdaq | bittrex | 9742032 | 1509 | 6.8 | 288 | 221 | 14 | 1.2 | 328.6 | 1005.4 | | coinswitch | binance | 108190700 | 9269 | 36.5 | 260 | 254 | 14 | 1.2 | 678.8 | 1530.0 | | okex | binance | 101722291 | 693 | 5.6 | 199 | 123 | 9 | 1.2 | 26282.4 | 22958.9 | | wazirx | bitsler | 142725468 | 2408 | 22.1 | 165 | 109 | 12 | 1.2 | 8.8 | 4.8 | | r9H4vkpoNo | razLtrbzXV | 34047374 | 224 | 8.6 | 75 | 26 | 8 | 1.2 | 2.3 | 1.6 | | coinzo | paribu | 440370 | 276 | 5.5 | 126 | 50 | 13 | 1.2 | 1605.8 | 1178.2 | | upbit | binance | 104125249 | 963 | 7.8 | 132 | 124 | 13 | 1.2 | 9675.6 | 3143.6 | | crypto.com | rP1afBEfik | 119497893 | 425 | 5.6 | 91 | 76 | 14 | 1.2 | 92.0 | 58.4 | | luckygames.io | coins.ph | 162162 | 154 | 6.2 | 229 | 25 | 14 | 1.2 | 31.9 | 50.0 | | changenow | binance | 102021532 | 7678 | 33.0 | 246 | 233 | 14 | 1.2 | 1194.2 | 3850.7 | | rJyDx6RL73 | bittrex | 2021800687 | 1271 | 5.6 | 230 | 226 | 14 | 1.2 | 280.1 | 1044.4 | | binance | coinbase pro | 3434336864 | 1179 | 6.3 | 239 | 187 | 13 | 1.2 | 2122.9 | 1352.0 | | rPUBiJcc9V | r9FnQZ8WLJ | 1293663 | 300 | 5.0 | 68 | 60 | 12 | 1.1 | 5090.2 | 1097.8 | | coins.ph | stake | 74326881 | 437 | 5.5 | 85 | 79 | 13 | 1.1 | 109.2 | 90.9 | | bittrex | rGZV96HKpR | 1094 | 247 | 5.6 | 43 | 44 | 14 | 1.1 | 62.0 | 34.0 | | coins.ph | razLtrbzXV | 10458663 | 387 | 8.1 | 48 | 48 | 14 | 1.1 | 4.0 | 3.8 | | coins.ph | razLtrbzXV | 13897572 | 568 | 6.0 | 111 | 95 | 11 | 1.1 | 25.5 | 32.0 | | orionx | razLtrbzXV | 54894363 | 105 | 6.6 | 27 | 16 | 9 | 1.1 | 50.8 | 68.4 | +---------------+---------------+------------+---------+----------+----------+----------+----------+------------+---------+-----------+ What you see here is some of the most active exchange pairings (I do not mean 'exchanges' necessarily, just any accounts exchanging xrp) that are making (almost) daily transfers in xrp. You see that there is backflow from bitso to bitstamp on a daily basis as well as other destinations. I'm interested in seeing new corridors possibly before ripple announce them, and also the payment paths that balance the flow back from (say) bitstamp->bitso or bitstamp->coins.ph (the two announced and active corridors at the moment). When/if payment providers switch from ripplenet xCurrent to xRapid, then things will start looking very interesting because the potential flow across the network between many exchanges in many countries will pick up strongly. Where the flows can be balanced using xrp they can use it (if it is cheaper than the alternatives) and the rest can be made up with xCurrent, gradually increasing one whilst decreasing the other. My understanding of the patent (which is probably wrong) was that it was more concerned with incentivizing market makers rather than directly (re-)balancing the flows - but I didn't try too hard to decipher the legal mumbo-jumbo terminology that it used so maybe I should have another look. Anyone who can give a good summary of it would be doing us all a great service if they would do so. (I apologise for the unconnected nature of this message because I started out wanting to write something interesting, but kind of gave up half way and it turned into rambling). EDIT: Just seen @Tinyaccount's reply above and he makes a good point - all that is needed is someone with MXN in excess, it might not be going to USD, it might be going elsewhere - (hence the tracking of all flows).
  11. You are conflating things. MGI is a payment company, not a market maker. They might be market making as well and how they lay-off and recoup funds from a bad set of price movements is the topic for a different discussion. What I was alluding to in my post is that we are not seeing many many small individual payments from USD to MXN (one per customer transaction), but rather we are seeing a smaller number of larger (than I expected) payments. If you have people sending USD to MXN, they need a boatload of MXN on hand to give to the receiving customers. The old way of doing it was to keep a very large sack full of MXN in their account in mexico and replenish it maybe at the end of each day (I have no idea how they actually manage(d) their nostro/vostro accounts). Now they can send $10k,$20K,$50K worth of xrp every N minutes/hours and top up the account during the day as many times as they want. Each time they do it they're sending using xRapid, taking 2 mins to do it and not losing anything on the slippage or price changes that happen daily. In the old system they might have Thousands or millions of MXN in their account overnight or all day and the USD/MXN price might change in their favour or against it, but their exposure is high. Now they can send smaller amounts all day long and reduce their risk. This is "liquidity on demand" in action.
  12. I track transactions on all corridors on a daily basis and there is certainly an increase to the philippine and mexico exchanges. I was somewhat surprised by the distribution of payments. For example potential xRapid payments in the range $10k to $100k look like this. Now that is far larger than I had expected in terms of individual transaction sizes (for remittances), but clearly MGI are using this as a way of keeping their vostro accounts topped up, on demand to allow payments when needed. The term ODL has indeed been chosen well. Rather than do every payment over xRapid, they can simply keep accounts topped up continuously. The liquidity graphs that are posted here repeatedly don't really mean anything important. They are a useful metric of volume, but as an earlier poster mentioned, you're probably better off just tracking volume directly rather than the synthetic index derived from it. It tries to smooth out variations caused by pump'n'dump and massive volume surges, but just taking a rolling average of the volume is an equally valid approach. I can try. Based on my own modelling, I believe we will not see a significant impact on prices until we are in the hundreds of millions of $ xRapid traffic daily. It depends on many variables which I do not know the trues values (or range of values) for . Unfortunately, I have not done the maths rigorously enough to be able to pin it down properly and I have not attempted to update my models for some time. The daily plotting of traffic along my suspected xRapid corridors is gradually building up useful data - particularly as you see aug-now is looking very good in terms of a gradually increasing level of traffic. I am very much looking forward to MGI financial reports over the next year or so which will indicate whether this is going to be a global success and potential disruptor of the entire cross border payments system (I obviously already think it will hapen or I wouldn't waste my time doing this and posting here). If MGI start posting improved profit margins and lower costs, the adoption and potential institutional fomo might well change everything. Disclaimer: the graphs and data presented here are based on my own speculation about what are, and are not, valid xRapid transactions and may be inaccurate.
  13. So long @Hodor and thanks for all the fish. It's a shame that you're stopping because there is precious little content on xrpchat that is worth reading any more and you were one of the few contributors who made an effort to keep spirits up during a very long bear market for crypto.Your posts will be missed.
  14. I can't speak on behalf of JK, but imagine you are a bank and want to settle in XRP using something like Corda Settler, but buying a few million $ worth of XRP is risky becuase it drops by value overnight by a significant amount. You want to hold it for settlement, but you don't want to hold it really. So Ripple can issue an xrp backed stablecoin that allows the banks to put a few million into xrp, settle with it, guaranteed that it's worth what they paid for it. It is convertible on ledger instantly to the amount of xrp required and everybody wins. You get a liquid asset and a stablecoin all in one. It's kind of genius really, except for the problem of when the value drops and the backing isn't enough any more. Need to read the proposal again to see what happens then. Shouldn't be too much of an issue for Ripple since they have rather a lot of it available - each month the 1 billion escrow release could be used as collateral for settlement tokens worth some % of the face value of xrp at the time...
  15. OK. My misunderstanding then. I thought that only the exchange value from one to another mattered and since USD/foo <==> xrp and USD/bar <==> xrp are the yardsticks, then a deviation would ripple through from one to another.
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