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jbjnr

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jbjnr last won the day on January 21

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  1. Just an update to my previous post I read the report quite carefully as I have been documenting escrow sales myself. They write : "Two quarterly markets reports under-reported the number of XRP released from escrow by a total of 200 million XRP ($84 million at current prices)" This is not really a lie, it's just that ripple state in their report "In Q1 2019, three billion XRP were again released out of escrow (one billion each month). Additionally, 2.30 billion XRP were returned and put into new escrow contracts". If you plot the numbers by calendar dates (as I did in my last escrow release update - and that's probably where they first spotted the discrepancy!), you see that during Q1, ripple actually re-escrowed 2.2 billion, not the 2.3 they wrote. (please add up the numbers (in millions) below) | 2019-Jan | 800 | | 2019-Feb | 800 | | 2019-Mar | 700 | This is really just a calendar adjustment because the release from march goes back in April. Nobody cares! I do consider their report to be a kind of FUD, but not for xrp price manipulation, but for creating a sensationalist reaction to bring clicks to their website and help shill their product. Anyone considering giving them money, please feel free to contact me and I'll compile better reports much more cheaply! (joke - please don't).
  2. I don't think they lied in their (rather lame) 'report' - their claims are 1) They state that ripple changed their policy on escrow release and re-escrow. When the escrow was announced, we assumed that each month's unused xrp would go into a new escrow month, but in fact they top up the previous one first before starting a new one. This isn't news, everyone who reads xrpchat knew about this over a year ago because as soon as the second re-escrow took place we wrote about it here (in the escrow thread if I recall). It was a surprise at first, but it makes sense to do it this way and it doesn't appear to have been motivated by any malicious intent on the part of ripple. 2) Ripple misrepresented how much they are releasing into the market - as noted David Schwartz pointed out that it's just a calendar month issue on the dates of transactions. Who cares? I for one do not, and I doubt many others here do either. I don't think anyone else noticed to be honest so at least they spotted something. 3) Someone else is using escrow. Wow. We guessed that ripple sold some xrp to someone and had conditions of release attached to it, other than that we know nothing about the mystery 200m xrp that were escrowed last year. No news here. INHO the report was an excuse to drum-up clicks on their website to generate interest in their 'product'. If that's the best they can do with their 'product' then those of us who do it in our spare time will not be out of work for a while.
  3. That's not strictly true. The XRP transferred from ripple to exchanges continues over the weekends without pause and I have shown correlations to daily volume previously in threads in general discussion (see Q3 2018 and Q4 sales analysis, I was too busy to do a Q1 2019 one, but will do so eventually - I am of the opinion that their programmatic sales has changed slightly recently). The main wallet used for distribution is visible here https://bithomp.com/explorer/r49yezViZ8N6FtwwKg9byDYtJ3UDuJi1zv and you can easily verify that many millions are transferred daily, with significant increases when the volume rises as has been the case recently. I do not disagree with your main thesis, but it is wrong to say that they are not selling. They are making direct programmatic sales, and there are no doubt market makers in operation helping to smooth the bumps out of the BTC induced madness.
  4. back a page or two is the latest table
  5. Dear @Tinyaccount, The date that you really want is around 2:30am on the morning of October 9th in 2024. If we ignore sales to OTC customers and just look at ripple programmatic sales, then we can simply extrapolate the data of sales from wallets to exchanges and assume that the volume increases linearly. When the monthly sales via programmatic means reaches 1B - then bingo, there will be not enough to go around. In this plot we show the monthly sales volume of XRP in units - not in $$$ - as we are interested in knowing when the volume exceeds 1B along with the regression fit to a straight line. The linear regression returns an intersection point of 1Billion on 2024-10-09T02:38:41.000000 - get your popcorn ready. if you are happy to assume that approx half will be sold OTC then the intersection for 0.5Billion is on 2021-07-06T19:35:53.000000 I'm not prepared to fit logarithmic curves to the data and guess what might happen if sales increase exponentially, since sales are linked to exchange volume, any significant rise in xRapid activity will trigger higher sales too. (This post was brought to you by the letters 'OMG' and the number 1E9) - (for readers unfamiliar with Sesame Street, Please google it).
  6. Correct. 700m this month. I was going to update the spreadsheet but it is getting too messy to maintain and when I looked at it, I discovered I'd accidentally removed one entry and was out by a month, so I'm abandoning it. Instead I wrote a script to fetch the escrow data and display a summary that is easier to update and check. The totals for the re-escrowed data (millions) by month are as follows +---------+---------------+ | Month | Re-escrowed | |---------+---------------| | 2018-02 | 900 | | 2018-03 | 900 | | 2018-04 | 900 | | 2018-05 | 900 | | 2018-06 | 900 | | 2018-07 | 900 | | 2018-08 | 900 | | 2018-09 | 800 | | 2018-10 | 800 | | 2018-11 | 800 | | 2018-12 | 800 | | 2019-01 | 800 | | 2019-02 | 800 | | 2019-03 | 700 | | 2019-04 | 700 | | 2019-05 | 700 | +---------+---------------+ I'm glad to see the pattern of increasing amounts being sold is continuing. The complete breakdown of when and where each escrow was made is in this table, where you can see the totals for each month in FinishAfter is 1 billion apart from the last one which is 200m and will no doubt be updated next month. I'm very glad I found how to paste tables into xrpchat finally. Never noticed the code insert button and the preview pane Amount FinishAfter Account Date 2022-08-01 rhEwsCWDCVxDiKxGJAKM6VuXC8EFtJP5gQ 2018-02-01 500.0 rncKvRcdDq9hVJpdLdTcKoxsS3NSkXsvfM 2018-02-01 400.0 2018-03-01 100.0 2022-09-01 rhEwsCWDCVxDiKxGJAKM6VuXC8EFtJP5gQ 2018-03-01 500.0 rncKvRcdDq9hVJpdLdTcKoxsS3NSkXsvfM 2018-03-01 300.0 2018-04-01 200.0 2022-10-01 rhEwsCWDCVxDiKxGJAKM6VuXC8EFtJP5gQ 2018-04-01 500.0 rncKvRcdDq9hVJpdLdTcKoxsS3NSkXsvfM 2018-04-01 200.0 2018-05-01 300.0 2022-11-01 rhEwsCWDCVxDiKxGJAKM6VuXC8EFtJP5gQ 2018-05-01 500.0 rncKvRcdDq9hVJpdLdTcKoxsS3NSkXsvfM 2018-05-01 100.0 2018-06-01 400.0 2022-12-01 rhEwsCWDCVxDiKxGJAKM6VuXC8EFtJP5gQ 2018-06-01 500.0 rncKvRcdDq9hVJpdLdTcKoxsS3NSkXsvfM 2018-07-01 500.0 2023-01-01 rhEwsCWDCVxDiKxGJAKM6VuXC8EFtJP5gQ 2018-07-01 400.0 2018-08-01 100.0 rncKvRcdDq9hVJpdLdTcKoxsS3NSkXsvfM 2018-08-01 500.0 2023-02-01 rhEwsCWDCVxDiKxGJAKM6VuXC8EFtJP5gQ 2018-08-01 300.0 2018-09-01 200.0 rncKvRcdDq9hVJpdLdTcKoxsS3NSkXsvfM 2018-09-01 500.0 2023-03-01 rhEwsCWDCVxDiKxGJAKM6VuXC8EFtJP5gQ 2018-09-01 100.0 2018-10-01 400.0 rncKvRcdDq9hVJpdLdTcKoxsS3NSkXsvfM 2018-10-01 400.0 2018-11-01 100.0 2023-04-01 rhEwsCWDCVxDiKxGJAKM6VuXC8EFtJP5gQ 2018-11-01 500.0 rncKvRcdDq9hVJpdLdTcKoxsS3NSkXsvfM 2018-11-01 200.0 2018-12-01 300.0 2023-05-01 rhEwsCWDCVxDiKxGJAKM6VuXC8EFtJP5gQ 2018-12-01 500.0 rncKvRcdDq9hVJpdLdTcKoxsS3NSkXsvfM 2019-01-01 500.0 2023-06-01 rp6aTJmW3nq1aKt3Jmuz4DPRxksT5PBjpH 2019-01-01 300.0 2019-02-01 200.0 rsjFB8mPWqiZgPUaVh8XYqdfa59PE2d5LG 2019-02-01 500.0 2023-07-01 rp6aTJmW3nq1aKt3Jmuz4DPRxksT5PBjpH 2019-02-01 100.0 2019-03-01 400.0 rsjFB8mPWqiZgPUaVh8XYqdfa59PE2d5LG 2019-03-01 300.0 2019-04-01 200.0 2023-08-01 rp6aTJmW3nq1aKt3Jmuz4DPRxksT5PBjpH 2019-04-01 400.0 2019-05-01 100.0 rsjFB8mPWqiZgPUaVh8XYqdfa59PE2d5LG 2019-04-01 100.0 2019-05-01 400.0 2023-09-01 rp6aTJmW3nq1aKt3Jmuz4DPRxksT5PBjpH 2019-05-01 200.0
  7. Quite right. When you listen to the way he explains the problems and how ripplenet is solving them for the industry, it's very hard not to imagine that the entire banking industry will be adopting their technology as fast as they can.
  8. This^ - and the fact that people making remittance payments are going to be spreading the word that company X is now much cheaper and faster than the old company Y that everyone was using. Word of mouth among foriegn workers sending money home should not be underestimated in this modern day of whatsapp etc. An easy tagline like "Runs on Ripple" is perfect for anyone saying - "you need one of those ripple people to send your money - I'm saving $x every week - as long as you get one of those ripple ones it'll be cheap". The brand name awareness will help adoption as customers then start asking their local money sending operators "are you using that ripple thing that everyone else has been telling me about?". etc. etc. "Runs on Ripple" works for me - and it tells us that Ripple are signalling that the marathon is now well off the start line by starting to spread awareness much wider (assuming they are in fact funding this advertising).
  9. Oops. Sorry. you're quite right. I multipled 0.3 cents instead of 0.3 dollars. I take back my mocking comment, it's not quite so terrible as I stated. I'll edit my comment appropriately
  10. Golly Jeepers. With ALV/XRP trading at 0.0009 (https://xrpcharts.ripple.com/#/markets/ALV:raEQc5krJ2rUXyi6fgmUAf63oAXmF7p6jp/XRP?interval=15m&range=3d&type=line) that makes 60k ALV worth a stunning 54 XRP, which at today's market prices gives you less than 20cents. Woo-hoo. It's well worth sending your email and a wallet address to get a huge payout like that! EDIT : Thanks to @EcneitapLatnem It's just under 20$ not 20cents. My mistake. Apologies to all for my gaff.
  11. Escrow update for March. Last month we originally saw 600m returned from escrow back to the rollover, but as I mentioned, there was a chance some extra might be added to it a few days later (as sometimes happens). As it turns out, another 100m was put back on 8th March, so in fact we had 700m last month (but I didn't check back and so missed the extra 100m returned). This month we see a further 700m (so far, but that's probably all) put back for release in Aug 2023. The spreadsheet now looks as follows (link is https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/13HEKpSN9bVXctIvkr-C6mKMiiYUZBZaIWiaKH3U1ers/edit?usp=sharing in case anyone wants to browse). The July 2023 now has 3 colours because it was filled from 3 monthly releases. I keep meaning to tidy up the colours and make it a bit more understandable, but at the end of the day, the interesting column is the re-escrowed total for each month that is dropping slowly from the 900m monthly to 700m now over the last 13 months (gosh, time really flies). The larger volume's of exchange trades over the last couple of days will no doubt push up programmatic sales a bit, so I'm looking forward to next month if the current surge maintains its momentum for a while.
  12. I'll spend a bit of time having a look at pages like this in a few weeks when I might have time https://solvewithdata.com/knowledge-base/using-google-bigquery-api-to-load-bigquery-tables-into-pandas-dataframes/ it seems to be possible to get python going with it, but it may take some experimentation for someone who's not familiar with the toolchains. Is Bigquery expensive because you are debugging a lot of searches and rerunning them again and again as you narrow down what you're looking for? or is it just expensive anyway and you really tried to not use too many cpu hours and download BW etc. My own testing with the ledger queries using the ripple API was shockingly wasteful and I would frequently just delete a massive dataset and re-download stuff when I wanted it. (Now that the scripts are a bit more stable I don't do that so much). If you have time to make a tutorial, then please do, (but don't waste time just on my account).
  13. Great Job. And thanks for uploading some of your queries to pastebin. I still haven't got around to trying bigquery - but having examples to use might be an incentive to get started. You have my sympathies. It is tedious work going through the transactions and looking for anything interesting. Couple of questions : Do you know if it is possible to script queries using python in bigquery? I am unfortunately a C++ programmer by trade and have some limited python skills, but not really done any database work, so I find SQL to be somewhat painful. Can one extract subsets of data from the database and import them into pandas for example and then use python to do plotting and analysis? (either locally or on the google servers) - I'm very much interested in the overall xRapid volume (not so much in the individual transactions), so being able to extract interesting data and download it locally would be handy. Any tutorial for this kind of thing would be helpful if you discovered any good ones during your learning phase. Thanks for showing us your results. Still very early in the game and not so much interesting statistics to see yet, but hopefully soon...
  14. I will try to do so, unfortunately, my job is more interesting than the xrp price, so I've tended to work on that (although I did have some fun plotting ripple xrp sales etc a few months back - I should have got back to the model then). You've answered it yourself in other posts. The essence of my model goes like this - Suppose there is only 1 XRP in existence and it needs to support $1million in payments every year, if the spread is 0.1% then the MM can expect to earn 1E6*1E-3. That's $1000 per year in earnings. How much are you willing to pay for that 1XRP in order to earn $1000 per year? Well, I guess I'd be happy to pay $10K for it and earn 10% per year on my investment. This puts a kind of lower bound on the price. MM's can compete to buy that XRP so that they can take your earnings. The limiting factors available are the size of the xrp pool available to the MMs and the spread they are charging, the ROI they need to remain profitable and the xRapid volume. As long as the spread is better than that available elsewhere ... then there's no need for it to drop to zero. (I'm ignoring here the obvious problem with trying to send a $1m payment using a 10K token - and yes of course your points about average transaction size/frequency/etc are important). As xRapid volume increases, that MM profit increases and that drives up the lower bound in price. I presume my argument is flawed because ...
  15. Indeed. That is an example of a profit on an individual transaction as a percentage of the amount transferred. What's I'm more interested in is the ROI on a yearly basis - based on the total investment of the market maker. They might buy and sell the same XRP N times in any given time interval, so it's simler to look at the yearly income as a ROI. This is actually proportional to xRapid transaction volume. What you are seeing is page 2 of a 7 page document. However, the other pages have bits deleted and too many unfinished edits to make it readable and that's why I'm not posting it all here. I would prefer to rewrite the whole thing. It hasn't been touched since March 2018 and was started back in nov 2017 before the bull run - after that I didn't care any more about the xrp price and lost interest in the model. Bob's comments on this forum recently have made me think that I should have finished it.
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