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  1. jbjnr

    Q4 analysis/prediction

    Can you elaborate on this a bit further please? Did you spend time looking at wallet transfers to come to this conclusion, or was there some other information that you found?
  2. jbjnr

    Q4 analysis/prediction

    Marvellous response. No real answer to that is there! Some people like to relax by watching sport on TV. I'm not one of them.
  3. jbjnr

    Q4 analysis/prediction

    I agree with all you've written. I played around looking for sources of data that I could use to try to correct the x10 difference between my volume and ripples assumed volume but decided to go ahead and use the current figures for now (otherwise the Q4 report would come out before I was finished). I wanted to try to guess first to see how close I can get. I suspect that the data ripple are using and what I need to look into is available from https://developers.ripple.com/data-api.html#get-external-markets the external markets API. I have tried a few simple queries, but not tried hard enough to do some proper data mining and finding the numbers I need. Ideally I want someone else to collate all the data for all XRP currency pairs and sum it up and then I can just work with that. It was only this weekend that I noticed that the 0.17% figure was mentioned in the Q3 report - previously I had only paid attention to the sales volume and not % of total. I thank @Hodor for bringing this to my attention in some unrelated post. I will investigate other sources of volume data as I'd like to get my numbers as exact as possible. I will of course post it here if and when I make improvements
  4. jbjnr

    Q4 analysis/prediction

    Programmatic sales look to be slightly higher, but not by a huge amount. OTC sales might be off the charts. I suspect that most of the 'missing xrp' is part of R3 settlement that was previously classified as undistributed and now distributed, but sadly we are not privy to this knowledge to we can only speculate. No doubt when the Q4 report comes out we'll have something new to learn. I'm not sure if founders' wallets are part of the undistributed category or not. To answer some more of these questions I think I need to use the bigquery dataset/database and do a bit more rigorous digging (and adding up), but I've not had time to look into that as yet. Too much work to do. It may be that some of the founders' sales are part of the missing xrp category. As noted by multiple people - not knowing which accounts truly belong to who makes it very difficult to be certain of anything. It does look as though Jed has either stopped his sales or is using different wallets than before. Someone else posted here about that - apologies I don remember who it was. I can't see any sales of his after Jan 11th. All these small changes are clues that things are happening behind the scenes I'm sure.
  5. jbjnr

    Q4 analysis/prediction

    What's interesting is not that they're selling more than they're making out, but they are distributing more than they are selling. I want to know where this is coming from and more importantly where it's going to. This is part of ripple's internal activities that are building the markets that will be needed for the IOV and the potentially revolutionary changes that are going to happen in the money markets if xRapid takes off as we all hope it will. My investigation is just my way of poking through the numbers to see what I can find that helps me understand the xrp ecosystem. Ripple would be foolish to reveal too much of what they are doing at the moment as they need to keep the competition guessing and not overtaking them in terms of technology or strategy. You might think that I am concerned or disturbed about ripple selling so much xrp, but if you read the post in my previous thread, I said (twice) that "ripple are looking after us". By selling tons of xrp they are creating the markets we need for global adoption. Recent threads on this forum have gone into very long winded rants about the way xRapid operates, about the way money is valued and about the way financial markets work. Ripple clearly understands all this very well and also that giving away xrp doesn't have the same effect as selling it. Individuals and Organisations purchasing xrp with skin in the game is what we need to build liquidity. The slow but steady increase in volume we're seeing and the increasing distribution are part of this long game. I'm just trying to find out how the game is evolving as it happens.
  6. jbjnr

    Q4 analysis/prediction

    No, I'm not of that opinion. Ripple don't have to publish any of their sales or distribution figures, but they choose to do so anyway, so I feel they're being very open. What I find intriguing is that despite the fact that we know how much they are selling and what we are looking for and that the ledger is entirely public, it's still remarkably hard to track down transactions of interest and account for movement of funds.
  7. Dear XRPChat, As the Ripple Q4Markets Report is imminent, I'd like to present an update to my previous analysis of ripple sales (in thread linked here) With a focus this time, on Q4 sales from 2018-10-01 to 2018-12-31. Part I The previous findings were that Ripple has been selling approximately 3% of daily volume and this trend appears to have continued without any significant change. I shall confine my plots to the period 2018-04-01 (2018-Q2) onwards, as this appears to be a time when a strategy shift occurred in the xrp sales and data appears consistent after this time. The up-to-date plot of daily sales (from the account previously referred to as RP2) to tagged (presumed to be exchange) accounts is and the correlation to daily volume is Which maintains the finding that around 1/35 = ~3% of daily volume is being sold off with the previous days volume (shift =1day) used as the reference. NB. Using the time period 2018-04-01 from cryptocompare.com to today as reference. I had previously hypothesized that ripple are selling xrp not only from their warchest of escrowed tokens, but also from founders/staff accounts since the declared sales of xrp in the Q2/Q3 reports do not tally with the summed totals I found in sales from RP2. This seems entirely reasonable and I decided to investigate this further. Two further pieces of information are useful. The first is that as pointed out in a recent comment by hodor - in the Q3 report, ripple state that their programmatic sales are 0.17% of market total (and total sales 0.43%). This is quite a significant difference from the 3% sales I have calculated. Either Ripple are using a different source of volume figures for their data, or I am not looking at the right numbers/wallets. Perhaps if I take only a subset of the 3% sales, they will match the numbers reported by ripple. In the previous analysis thread, I did not manage to find a good match between ripple's declared figures and the ones I presented - to try to improve this, I looked at the wallets that supply RP2 with the xrp that is sold daily. There are 9 of them, and I have labelled them as RD1, RD2, ... RD9 (for Ripple Daily 1-9). The payments from April until now are It's clear that they follow a similar pattern to the overall sales in the earlier plot since these are just the payments into the RP2 account that are then distributed to exchanges. Perhaps the 9 accounts represent different sources of xrp that correspond to warchest/founders/charity/other wallets that contribute to daily sales. This is a breakdown of the payments from the 9 into RP2 for recent quarters And let us remind ourselves of the ripple sales as published in the quarterly reports We are interested in 2018 Q2/Q3 programmatic sales and if any of the accounts RD1-9 match the figures quoted. The answer is "no", but perhaps several of the accounts together combined match the figures we are looking for. Summing RD1 RD2 RD3 RD9 gives a quite close result for Q2/Q3, here are the numbers The totals are 57.56 and 66.71 compared to 56.55 and 65.27. Those numbers are just 1.7% and 2.2% out for Q2 and Q3 respectively. Perhaps those are the accounts that are feeding the programmatic sales. If that is a correct assumption, then 2018-Q4 programmatic sales should be $83.47m. Allowing for +/-2.5% we would have a range of $81.4m to $85.6m. Actually, I suspect the number will be a little less because RD1,RD2,R3 look like good candidates, but why add RD9 in Q3 which had zero sales prior to then. Removing RD9 from the sum increases the error and reduces the total so I would not be surprised if the figure was a little lower. But I'll stick to $83.5m as a prediction for Q4 sales. One thing that troubles me is that the figures I get for programmatic sales using RD1,2,3,9 amounts to 1/57.33 = 0.1744 or 1.7% of the volume (which is about right, since we are only including half the accounts in our programmatic sales estimate that was ~3%). But in the Ripple Q3 report, they state that they sold only 0.17% of volume programmatically. And based on the figures presented in the report, it looks as though the volume data they are using is much higher than that sourced by myself, so I shall revisit these figures with better volume data. The average daily volume from their data is >$400M daily, which seems about right. It may be that the /v2/network/external_markets API can provide figures that improve the correlations with sales and give a better match to the %volume figures. Part II I said earlier that two further pieces of information were useful. One was the sales % numbers in the markets report, the second is that we do have extra data that might help us identify direct sales as well as programmatic ones. The extra data is the xrp distribution figures. Ripple provide data on how much xrp is in existence, how much is distributed/undistributed and escrowed. If we know how much xrp there is in April 2018 and we know how much is sold, escrowed and destroyed etc, then whatever remains in the difference between distributed and undistributed must be xrp that ripple has either loaned out or sold OTC. If it is undistributed, then it is part of the monthly escrow release but still sitting in a ripple wallet - if it is distributed, then it has been 'used' in some capacity. Lets have a look at the raw distribution data, here I've added 3 columns, 'remains' is just a sanity check to make sure that the totals are consistent (total-(escrowed+dist+undist)) and is zero or occasionally 1 due to roundoff errors. burned is the change in total each month and diff is the change in distributed. The other columns are as read from https://data.ripple.com/v2/network/xrp_distribution date distributed escrowed total undistributed remains burned diff 2018-01-07 39029058672 54000000024 99992855589 6963796893 0 NaN NaN 2018-01-14 39029001738 54000000024 99992777885 6963776123 0 77704.0 -56934.0 2018-01-21 39029011222 54000000024 99992725510 6963714263 1 52375.0 9484.0 2018-01-28 39032356092 54000000024 99992664799 6960308683 0 60711.0 3344870.0 2018-02-04 39094802192 53900000024 99992622540 6997820324 0 42259.0 62446100.0 etc etc ... when plotted the data for 2018 looks like the following graph. Note that we see drops in distributed XRP when it is placed in escrow (or potentially when large amounts are burned, but this is very small since the cap on transaction fees was introduced after a user lost 100k+ xrp in accidental fees). If we resample the distribution data to end of month totals, subtract the total distributed at the start of the period (giving zero initial distribution at the start of April 1st 2018, = start of Q2), then subtracting what we believe has been sold (using the figures we know from part I above) for each month, then the left over should be the amount that has been distributed by ripple, but not declared as part of programmatic sales. It should be 'direct sales' + xrp distribution from 'any other business' (sch as incentivisation of market makers and loans of xrp etc). The next graph shows the distributed xrp starting at zero on 1st April, with monthly and quarterly final amounts alongside. Note that as the distribution data is only published weekly, there can be big differences between the month end resampled and original data. For example, the data for the first week of Dec 2018 is 500m higher than the previous entry during the last week of Nov, and so the monthly Nov fig is much lower than the true data. Fortunately no big differences exist at quarterly boundaries so we don't need to make any adjustments to the data or our sampling. Previously we showed the quarterly sales from RD1,2,3,9 in $$$, the sales in terms of xrp tokens are so we should subtract those from the quarterly distribution numbers which are -------------------- Quarterly distribution -------------------- date distributed(since start Q2) 2018-06-30 146046852 2018-09-30 881583920 2018-12-31 1924354618 which gives Q2 65m, Q3 583.7m, Q4 1042.7m as the unaccounted for XRP for the 3 quarters we are interested in. Ripple have told us that in Q2 their direct sales were $16.87m - but we do not know what price they were sold at. The best we can do is use a flat rate based on the sales we do know about. In Q2 we found 81m xrp sold for $57.56m so we estimate that 23.7m xrp would have sold for $16.87m. This gives us (if we repeat the process for Q3) Q2 programmatic = 81m, direct = 23.7m, mystery remainder = 41.3m xrp Q3 programmatic = 151.8m, direct = 221.1m, mystery remainder = 583.7-221.1 = 362m xrp for Q4 we have Q4 programmatic = 196.3m, unaccounted for 866.5m of which some is going to be direct sales and some is unaccounted for. I had hoped that by conducting this little experiment, I would be able to recover the direct sales numbers from ripple, but unfortunately the numbers don't add up. There is still xrp being released that is unaccounted for. In Q2, it's 41m xrp, in Q3 it jumps to 362m and in Q4 we do not know the direct sales figures yet, but it could be anywhere from 0-866m xrp which would translate into a very large figure in $$$. Probably some of the xrp bound to the R3 settlement is included in this number, and probably the direct sales for Q4 will be very high (I'd guess over $100m). We will know soon and I will update my calculations when the Q4 report is released. Conclusion. TL;DR : My best guess for Q4 figures is between $81m and $86m for programmatic sales, over $100m for direct sales and a ton of xrp being loaned out, or distributed as part of other agreements. As usual, all my numbers are guesswork and as soon as I click send, I'll find loads of mistakes, please consider this analysis as a simple diversion from other mundane aspects of life. edit : deleted an image pasted by accident and fixed some typos
  8. jbjnr

    Mercury-fx using XRP

    tid amount book created_at maker_side pesos price 9742548 12821.933253 xrp_mxn 2019-01-10T07:43:46+0000 buy 8.667627e+04 6.76 I was also looking at this transaction last night, but ruled it out because the sell order on bitso is larger than the xrp transfer on the ledger. I would expect that the sell order would be the same as the transfer, or possibly slightly smaller (if they took a cut in xrp). The conversion to pesos for this transfer gives 86,676.27 which is slightly larger than the final recipient gets (if we assume that the recipient got 86,633.00 as indicated in the tweet), so the transfer to final bank might take the 43.27 pesos difference, but why sell more xrp than needed? 12821.933253 is an unusual amount to sell if you're matching a limit order. I can't find any other transactions that look like good candidates in recent days, so this looks like it must/might be it. I'll do a bit more checking tonight nd see if any more transactions look promising. edit: deleted comment that didn't make sense edit again: Actually, just noticed that that bitso transaction is marked as a buy order and not a sell.
  9. jbjnr

    Valor, Another Ripple Scam?

    There's no need for ripple to 'repel' such an attack. The idea behind valor is fatuous and flawed. It relies on the principal of convincing a majority of xrp holders to swap their xrp for valor and thereby replace one token with another. Ripple has spent the last several years building a marketplace for xrp, incentivising market makers, bringing FIs on board and integrating xrp via xRapid into their tools. The reason xrp has any value is because it can be used as a payment token carrying its value across markets and there is simply no need or point in replacing it with a cloned version. No Fis would be interested in adopting it and ripple would not modify xRapid to work with the new token as it would have no advantage over the old one. No Fi would be interested in it for the same reason. A few delusional investors might be convinced to swap their tokens, but they would simply lose their investment and hold worthless tokens whilst the valor people would hold their xrp. It is a laughable idea. You are not wrong. Though I cannot imagine who would pay for such crap.
  10. jbjnr

    Analysis of Ripple's XRP sales

    That's fabulous. Thanks. I shall play with those addresses right away.
  11. I have joined this club, only to reply to this question The opposite is true. If there were 100 exchanges and 100xrp in existence, then each exchange might have 1 token each, to transfer $10K, the xrp will need a value in excess of that figure. If there are now 1000 exchanges and still only 100xrp, then the price of each xrp must rise to facilitate that transaction. More exchanges spreads xrp more thinly and adds to the scarcity of the token, pushing up its price. (We assume that the actual xrp are in the exchange wallets, if they are using some kind of margin trading style of virtual xrp and they do not actually hold the xrp, then big trouble lies ahead). (NB. I am only referring to xrp value as a function of xRapid transaction volume. Price speculation is not interesting in this context and who cares what effect more exchanges have in this regard).
  12. jbjnr

    The impossibility of liquidity in xrp

    I think @jag216, @Professor Hantzen, @Trickeryand @xrpsailor1 have made all the points that I would have done to reply to this, but to reiterate xrp is not a currency. Governments are not going to budget spending in xrp, amazon will not list prices in xrp (though they may accept it as a payment mechanism), banks will not be required to issue xrp or loan it. xrp exists only to bridge payments in other currencies. Comparisons with a gold standard are not valid. Your worry that Bob will hold all the xrp and refuse to sell it is a valid concern, but even in the unlikely event that Bob managed to buy up all the xrp and then hold onto it - it becomes worthless as a bridging 'currency'. The beauty of ILP is that it is agnostic to the settlement mechanism, it simply says, I need to pay Alice in currency X and I've only got currency Y, who can give me the best deal on X for Y. It requests liquidity in X 'on demand'. If Bob owns all the xrp and refuses to use it, then someone else will step in and make the trade using some other token, or prefunded nostro/vostro trade and the fee will be reflected in the costs. Bob would be an idiot to do this as there is going to be a huge sum of money made by market makers in making these trades from their spreads, and the world is starting to see this and this is why we see so many exchanges springing up and wanting a slice of the action (and market makers should follow, but we don't see them in the news the same way that we see the exchanges opening). The real money will be made by the market makers - doing the exact opposite of what you are worried about - Bob witholding his xrp makes him no $$$, but trading it millions of times per day to drive the IOV will make him very wealthy. When millions of Bobs like us are holding xrp and the pool available to market makers becomes scarce, then the price rises naturally - and in principle this could cause problems if the available supply of xrp were to diminish - exponential rises in the price of xrp would result, followed by crashes as we all cash out and then rising again as new waves of investment kick in. The futures market and huge number of investors competing for a slice of the $$$ will hopefully smooth this out and lead to a gradual appreciation of xrp price in line with volume of transactions using it as a bridging currency.
  13. jbjnr

    The impossibility of liquidity in xrp

    Disagree. The money supply can be elastic, but xrp is only required for exchange of one elastic currency for another. Devaluation of the elastic currencies is reflected in increasing value of xrp. xrp is not pegged to anything other than it's value as a transaction medium. There is no need for liquidation of balance sheets, only a trade between fiat and xrp and vice versa. Using xrp to 'source liquidity' does not mean creation of new money, it only means easy access to someone else's cash so that settlement can take place using liquidity 'on demand' as opposed to prefunded liquidity. Nobody needs to borrow xrp or have it loaned out as they simply buy and sell it as needed. I do not see any liquidity crisis emerging. (xrp could be loaned to market makers, but that's orthogonal to the argument).
  14. jbjnr

    Escrow sales

    Happy New Year to all, 2019 has got off to a start with 800m being re-escrowed from the the Dec release (5th time in a row that 200m has been sold/used during the month). The only unusual thing to report is that 10x2 accounts have been filled (500m each making 10B in total) and a new account has been started for the next set of payments.
  15. jbjnr

    xRapid Simulation?

    If you step back from individual transactions and instead look at the 'flow' of money, then certain principles are in effect that can be modeled. I am waiting for more data about the effects of xRapid to further refine my model. (I do not have experience of how market makers operate). I wanted to try to predict what effect xRapid will have on price so that I can better understand the 'investment' that I have made. I do not require anyone else to believe it or have any confidence in it yet.