gforce reacted to jag216 in Is Ripple pursuing quantitative tightening of XRP in anticipation of global runaway inflation?
Been awhile, thank you for reading. I don't write too often these days, but I have seen enough interesting things over the past few months that I feel it is absolutely time to speak up and share my observations. I could be entirely wrong, and I am NOT a fanboy by any means. I dislike hype in the markets as much as the next person.
Before it was nuked, I mentioned in the Zerpening that there are many ways to get to $589/XRP - the dollar can go down, or the utility can go up, or both.
Something really interesting has developed in terms of the timeline we have seen since the beginning of 2020.
The first thing I want to bring up, is the statement made repeatedly by Ripple that 2020 will be the year of the digital asset. This commentary came in the shadow of an exhausted repo market that was already struggling with liquidity to keep up with overnight deals in 2019:
The first observation that I made regarding rhythmic volume patterns down to the midnight hour of weekends, and we've all recognized it by now:
The ever increasing sine wave of programmatic activity that was so carefully balanced it had very little impact on price in comparison to speculative movement. No terribly high values in comparison, but a considerable amount of XRP had been flowing, changing hands, etc. The volume generated during these weeks on a daily basis outpaced the volume we saw during the last meteoric bullrun, yet the prices never even came close to $0.50.
Consider when OTC sales dropped from XRP II. Consider when we started seeing a parabolic rise in XRP distribution - this liquidity wave is a lagging indicator of this initial distribution increase (in my opinion):
In response to the outcry (so the narrative goes), we are told they curtailed sales - I believe it is likely that the curtail in sales and the client flows they have access to allowed them to predict that the liquidity waves they generated using their initial escrow formula would wash out this month. They knew when they started slowing down institutional sales that the liquidity they pumped into the system would ripple and wash out in waves. But why publicly shout about turning the controls now?
The Greg Kidd interview indicated that the mentality of Ripple concerning the escrow is precisely the following: Ripple views the ownership of its warchest as if it were a central bank, preventing monumental flushes of liquidity from creating too much volatility. I believe what we have witnessed with the weekly wave of programmatic trading was a test of the smoothing effect of the XRP ODL platform - could it operate in the background and transparently hold a floor value? I believe they got their fortunate market test case on March 12th, when the entire market dips and the subsequent Maker/Dao/Eth $0 automated auction siphon slurped unfettered value out of ETH and drained the rest of the market with it.
We went to $0.11 - it was terrible, but it could have easily gone far lower with the rapid liquidity XRP provides. We already know how bad those swings can go.
But the waves continued, we rebounded along with the rest of the market, but we held oddly steady at $0.20 while the rest of the market fluctuated in a more loosely coupled manner.
I've mention on a few video comment boards the $0.17 Sunday. This is the most interesting piece to me as of late. There are a few interesting things that we know right now.
First, we know that ODL is transitioning to smaller payments - the wave or large payments is over. Interesting.
Second, we know that many central banks are planning to adopt DLT through R3 Corda as the backbone for their CBDC development:
Do we know how much XRP r3 has an option on? Was it necessary to rebuild the warchest in order to shift liquidity pools to appropriate areas? How much does r3 need for its central bank partners?
Third, we've had suspicious unique XRP market flash buys on three distinct and evenly spaced weekends - each one driving the price of XRP up and then down by $0.03 roughly, only to return to stability at close to the original price.
What would it take to move the markets in these brief 5 minute flashes?
Let's say it likely take the sale of between 5.5-6 million XRP to drop the price from $0.20 - $0.17 - the cost to do this on bitstamp, as it turns out, is around $1mil USD.
This sure seems like something that a person would take to the OTC market, but we've had THREE weekend buys.
May 10 - I'll admit this first one was disguised pretty well behind a general market crash:
The OTC markets are drying up. That's the only thing I can really assume at this point. Why would anyone take this sort of risk on the open market three times?
The three opportunities on a regular timeline:
My feeling is that - particularly in the most recent case, you have a very clear out in the open market massive million dollar transfer arranged - if not three - and where is OTC?
Are we witnessing the effects of a quantitative tightening on the part of Ripple? Are they expecting there to be a significant liquidity crisis in fiat that would make XRP far more valuable to them as a company in their control than outside of it? I believe that Ripple is rebuilding and rebalancing their warchest for a new volley of managed liquidity. I think they are shifting to smaller payment volumes because they are anticipating advanced volatility in the dollar, likely to the downside, and they are aware that the consequences this will have on the value of XRP will allow them to handle far more international remittances with far less XRP.
Another sign? They are interested in XRP loaning partners - yet another form of quantitative tightening - in addition, this builds a redemption floor as more and more liabilities are stack on XRP and require either XRP or a comparable amount of other currencies to redeem.
The beauty of the ledger - again going back to the Greg Kidd interview - is that with the XRP Ledger a person is able to settle in a variety of avenues and handle many different interchangeable currencies - and this should really go in both directions - we should be able to loan against XRP secured in escrow on the ledger - but we can also issue stablecoins or other assets on the ledger that are backed by other assets so long as a reliable pricing channel exists - and none of this takes away from the value of XRP as a transport of value.
I can't make price predictions - and I won't.
What I will say is that I feel like quantitative tightening of XRP in tandem with the bitcoin halving is likely a chess move considered way in advance, and I think that if other currencies releasing proof of stake equally depress the circulating token supply as fiat inflation kicks in - particularly if the sentiment that Blockchain Backer shares in his recent video on the stock market hype cycle playing into a dropping dollar value, it makes perfect sense for Ripple to wind back its XRP distribution plans in order to be able to handle more smaller payments with fewer XRP per transaction. I think it is a pretty ballsy move if this is in fact what they are doing - because they would be effectively betting against the value of the dollar without directly saying so.
At the end of the day I feel like this move by Ripple anticipates an increase in price - to what extent I do not know.
gforce reacted to baobeiiiii in Charting the course of XRP
Bitcoin longs are very high, and that's bearish. I can see bitcoin retracing down to 3k, and XRP following it down to sub .10, perhaps sub .05.
I'm 95% out of XRP; if we go that low I'll consider buying back in. But I won't buy back in even at .15, we need to really go down a ton. People can post graphs all day and look for bottoms/triangles/signs of reversal, the fact is we are trending down and bleeding out like a stuck pig.
gforce reacted to ManBearPig in Charting the course of XRP
Haven’t sold a drop recently. Emotion has washed away much of the blind hope, and has challenged the fundamental research that rational investors have applied.
XRP is still a good project with a tremendous upside that has many different potential use cases of which any could make the price takeoff.
I have halted my DCA purchases with XRP and reallocating those funds to padding other bags that I own, or new ones that I feel are worth makes small splashes into. I will buy again if XRP hits .16.
Always be prepared to remind yourself this is high risk investing with a very strong chance of burning holes in your pockets. Don’t postpone other life’s goals or passions by waiting for prices to rise... or fail.
gforce reacted to Mellontes in Scenario: Ripple Goes Public
Ripple is betting $30 million on Moneygram. Paid triple for their initial shares. Ripple knows Moneygram will benefit. To me, when Moneygram reports on Q4 (mid-February 2020) is when the world realizes the impact of RippleNet using XRP. The consequences of such knowledge will be a magnitude of magnificence. Also, if results are poor, XRP fails...not gonna happen since it is already setup...
gforce reacted to Valhalla_Guy in Ripple partners with Pakistan-based Faysal Bank to facilitate cross-border payments
Whether they actually “vote” or not is irrelevant. RL will continue to control price regardless of utility, demand, or any other free market variables. It is known as centralization. Same as the FED Reserve controls the amount of USD in the market. RL controls the amount of XRP.
The CMC excuse is empty because
1. It was only offered AFTER being caught over selling.
#2 Why would RL use CMC to determine volume? That would be similar to Zuckerberg using Google to determine the number of active FaceBook users.
No retail investor will risk their client’s money until RL releases control of supply. 2 years is very optimistic, that golden goose is too precious to set free.
gforce reacted to AlejoMoreno in XRP Community Is Threatening a ‘Takeover’ if Ripple Execs Keep Dumping
I say let them go for it. Let's see if and how Ripple responds. This will be great to see how far this escalates.
It's more exciting than watching the price take a **** every few weeks.
gforce reacted to Caracappa in XRP Community Is Threatening a ‘Takeover’ if Ripple Execs Keep Dumping
Pff, they are threatening with a fork of XRP... and then? We have another random coin no one is using for anything but speculation that will massively grow in price because they are not dumping it? Or are they going to onboard banks themselves and write a softwarepackage for banks to do domestic transfers.
gforce got a reaction from XRPCascade in Digtal Reserve Currency talk???
"This is where, if Carney indeed speaks for his central banking peers, one can say "game over" for the fiat system, which now even establishment members admit will need to devalue against something outside of the fiat system, such as Gold (as Pimco's Harley Bassman suggested back in 2016), or cryptocurrency/stable coins, like Libra."
"Which means that the only practical alternative is a central bank endorsed cryptocurrency, or - wait for it - gold".
gforce reacted to King34Maine in Ripple- Stop the dumping
I told myself that I wasn't going to reply to this BS. I made every attempt to overlook and move on, but here goes.
First, if you have a concern with how Ripple is selling, distributing, or utilizing their ownership of XRP please, by all means, take it up with them here. Stop inundating others with you misplaced "whoa is me" rant.
Second, dude, grow the **** up and accept responsibility for YOUR investment decisions. YOU chose to purchase XRP. No one from Ripple or the general public forced YOU to do so. Like most, I'm going to assume that you performed some level of due-diligence into the business proposition, vision, and plan Ripple had for XRP and the XRP-Ledger. Just because YOUR expected Return-on-Investment (ROI) strategy and timeline didn't pan out the way you wanted it to is not the fault of Ripple.
Third, crypto and blockchain is an extremely nascent marketplace and technology that will have many ebbs and flows, ups and downs, growth and stagnation as it matures. Sure, many try to make comparisons to traditional markets (i.e. stocks) but, at the end of the day, there is no playbook to follow to glean any sort of rhyme or reason for how the crypto marketplace behaves.
Fourth, let's get to the real problem here. YOU, like so many people, invested more than YOU should have....Period!! YOU failed yourself by betting money you couldn't afford to bet for an extended period of time. I know this to be true for the simple fact that you posted this very response. Anyone who only invested what they could afford to loose wouldn't be giving the recent price downtrend a second thought. That's not to say that they're happy about the recent down turn, after all, they want the price of XRP to appreciate just like you. Even top executives from Ripple know that in order for Ripple's vision to come to fruition the price of XRP needs to appreciate because it helps their overall strategy and plan. Listen, nobody likes to loose money. I know I don't even if it's my play money. However, if you can't afford to loose every dime you put into crypto, then you are way out of your league.
Fifth, Ripple doesn't owe YOU jack ****!!! They are not in the business of making you rich. Their loyalty is to their investors, partners, and customers. You know, those private equity holders of the Series A/B stock. While they try to keep the XRP-Community up-to-date with what is going on with the company via the Ripple Insights articles, the Ripple Drop, xPring Medium posts, and community engagement from senior leadership (i.e. Brad, David, Asheesh, Ethan, etc.), they're not obligated. Now, that may sound harsh to you, but that's how the cookie crumbles my friend. Because XRP is an agnostic utility token used as a bridge-asset for cross-border/domestic payments, owning XRP gives you no rights or ownership in the private company Ripple. Yes, you and I may have purchased XRP via exchanges in hopes that the value will appreciate as more and more banks and FIs begin to utilize xRapid for liquidity, however, this is pure speculation and betting on our part as holders of XRP. As XRP holders, we are just along for the ride.
Finally, it's time for YOU to put on your big boy pants/big girl skirt and accept responsibility for YOUR decisions. If you can't handle the ebb and flow of the market, and all evidence point to the fact that you can't, then it's time for you to exit quietly.
gforce reacted to Bystander in Ripple- Stop the dumping
I hold some XRP and have been wading through the various online forums that are focused on Ripple and XRP over the past few days. Needless to say, the current price chart looks dismal and I am feeling that I am approaching decision time on whether it makes sense to remain invested in XRP or cut my losses and call it a day for now. Overall, I am inclined to believe that the former is probably the better choice, for the following reasons:
1) Ripple has spent many years trying to get things up and running in earnest (according to Wikipedia XRP was created in 2012). They are associated with various big names in the financial industry and have made numerous promising announcements, but the real breakthrough has not yet happened, it seems, which is even admitted by Ripple and XRP enthusiasts. The "story" is getting a bit old, but the good times (stock markets, economy) are almost over. If seven years during one of the longest bull markets in the post-war history could not get Ripple's revolutionary concept up and running, (and no, "partnerships", tests and a few isolated examples do not count IMHO) I don't know what can.
2) Ripple and its top executives, particularly its CEO own a disproportionally large amount of XRP. There are regularly scheduled sales of XRP from the company's holdings which has a negative impact on the price. Demand on the other hand seems to be lacklustre at the moment.
3) XRP has been the worst performing of the top 10 cryptos in recent months. The fact that the price of BTC recovered has failed to pull the price of XRP upward.
4) There are solid investment alternatives which appear to be a safer bet while potentially also quite profitable, and above all, which have much greater name recognition: Precious metals and Bitcoin. The likelihood that Ripple and XRP brands will become more widely known than these assets in the next couple of years is very low, IMHO.
5) Ripple is currently hiring dozens of new employees and seems to have plenty of money to spend. While this seems to inspire confidence, what I don't like is that they are continuing to get rid of their XRP, be it through regularly scheduled sales or XRP donations to some fancy start-up network with great prospects sometime in a nebulous future. Ripple needs regulators around the world to show a benign stance, and from what I dimly understand, progress on that front may slower than expected. It requires banks and financial institutions to buy and effectively use XRP, Xcurerent, or Xrapid and/or what other products they may have in order for XRP adoption and use to increase. While some progress has been made in the past, solid data on hard metrics seem to be notoriously difficult to get by (and no, 200 vague "partnerships" with various banks and other companies does not count as such, IMHO). It does not feel as though SWIFT is in danger of being dethroned by Ripple/XRP anytime soon, and to be frank, I am not at all confident the long awaited breakthrough will happen during a severe recession, which I expect is almost certain to occur.
6) Many observers of the crypto space are hoping that we may see a repeat of what happened in late 2017, when many altcoins "achieved" even more spectacular gains than Bitcoin. As a matter of fact, Bitcoin is roughly 50 percent below its all-time high, whereas most of those altcoins price charts, especially the smaller ones, continue to resemble that of penny stocks, with one huge peak in the past and a long, drawn-out decline that stretches into the present. Ripple has been around for a longer time than most altcoins and is one of the top three cryptos in terms of market cap. However, this does not protect the venture from failure. If anything, recent developments in the crypto market seem to underscore the message that if there is any safe haven in this space, it is probably Bitcoin IMHO.
7) If the price of Ripple were to increase 10, 20 or 30 fold, there should in theory be time to jump back onboard again, especially for those who keep a close eye on the market as a whole. Spectacular though past price hikes were, each of them occurred over a period of several weeks. From my perspective (no job, regular income about to end rather soon), it makes sense to play it safe and consider reentering at a later stage if price action warrants such a move.
I am not a specialist in investment, finance or IT. Nevertheless, I think it is possible for critical laypeople to draw some solid conclusions with the help of the information that is available online. Overall, there are too many red flags for me to remain positive, and the cold, hard reality is that the price chart seems to support such concerns. I believe that the best XRP holders can hope for is that Bitcoin's rising tide will eventually spark another altcoin boom which will lift their ship, too. This should hopefully give many of them a chance to break even and jump ship before a reality check is finally due for this project. Hence, for me it is either hold and hope for the best - with the realistic/cynical expectation that this will likely go nowhere in the mid- to longer term - or sell.
(1: Sorry for any typos. 2: English is not my mother tongue.)
gforce reacted to Spekul8 in Ripple- Stop the dumping
I am cracking up. XRP entire operation is financed from selling XRP and people want them to stop it.
LOL+LMAO= I fallen and I cant get up.
If you can't suffer seeing the price go down, stop the bleeding and cut your losses short. If you dont' blame ONLY yourself you held it to levels you did not consider. lower prices bring lower prices.
gforce reacted to wogojump in Ripple- Stop the dumping
We would need to sit in a Ripple strategic meetings to know for sure, but I am pretty sure they have discussed details around this strategy. In their Q2 2019 XRP Markets Report, they discussed this relevant strategy: https://www.ripple.com/insights/q2-2019-xrp-markets-report/
I interpret this that their sales actually had a greater downward impact on trading price in the past, as compared to what they were expecting. They are pointing to the misreported trading volumes as being a major reason why they previously had their sales target to high. They will closely monitor this situation and take a more conservative sales approach for Q3. I believe they are on the right track, but there are still additional sell off strategies that should be vetted out.
I don't believe Ripple should just stop selling XRP all together, a more strategic and conservative approach for selling in the short term will be beneficial. Ripple and all other stakeholders will be in a much better position in 5+ years if the XRP price increases. If the XRP prices drop down to a few cents, trading prices will most likely stay there for a long time. Vice versa if XRP price can get to $2, $20, etc.; that is a valuation increase of 100x, 1000x, etc. Having XRP drop down to a few cents will cause a very negative media spotlight for Ripple.