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  1. Finding it harder to identify the cycle impulses due to the increased chop. 1. It now looks like we completed the cycle and should be on an upward impulse. 2. Price is approaching the FLD (fuchsia), if it crosses significantly then the uptrend is supported. 3. The long-term uptrend (dotted white) held, just ! 4. All envelopes and MA's are still pointing down so exercise caution. 5. Price bounced around Octave mean (blue horizontal). 6. Price moved outside the blue envelope suggesting reversal to upside. 6. If price breaks the FLD my preferred outcome is to reach the first peak of the new cycle around 10,500.
  2. XRP state of play... 1. Major uptrend held (white dashed line). 2. Price is (just) above the FLD. 3. Last MA cross was roughly at mid-point of correction suggesting it is complete. 4. Peaks are right-shifted suggesting uptrend. 5. Red MA and red envelopes are up (good), blue and green are still down (bad). 6. Price moved outside lower blue envelope suggesting reversal to upside. 7. Price appears centered about the 0.275 octave for now. 8. New cycle looks to have started. As such should soon see a move upwards, next octave is around 0.293.
  3. Zooming in to show why down impulse should be complete... Note the hand-drawn yellow circle. It is frequently observed that the displaced MA's (red, green and blue lines) will cross (or get very close to crossing) at the mid-point of an impulse. By definition the MA's are displaced so there is a degree of projection required to estimate the crossing point, but historical crosses have demonstrated repeatedly that this is an accurate conclusion.
  4. This impulse down appears to be done and the price bounced off of a mid-term uptrend line (white dotted line). I am hopeful that we continue the uptrend once the consolidation phase is done.
  5. So here goes... 1. XRP is in uptrend (white dotted line and price broke above fuchsia FLD). 2. Last few peaks have been right-offset indicating an uptrend. 3. Red displaced MA and associated envelopes (fastest) have turned up supporting uptrend. 4. Price has bounced from outside of outer envelopes supporting reversal (to upside). 5. Green and Blue MA's and envelopes have not turned up yet (not yet supporting uptrend). 6. Cycle structure would suggest that we are heading back up towards the previous peak, probably higher, before closing the cycle with a downward movement. I still need to fine tune this system for xrp so treat this analysis with caution and as always DYOR.
  6. TA skills, lol...I'm barely coherent, but thank you Seriously though, I have used the Hurst cycles analysis on xrp before and it looked a carbon-copy of btc at the time so I just focused on btc. Moving forward I would be happy to revisit xrp and let you know what I find. Thanks for the invitation.
  7. I wish I could understand human nature better. Can someone sensible explain why (a few) posters come onto what is clearly a TA thread to bash and be negative towards Molten when it's very clearly stated in the title and the subsequent content what the thread would address. It's like dealing with 3 year old children. Assuming these snowflakes are not toddlers with advanced computing or smart phone skills, why do they behave like this...what do they gain from pissing on someone else's chips ? Constructive criticism is one thing, this is something entirely different. Clearly there are psychological deficiencies that are being over-compensated for resulting in the trolling behaviors we have to tediously endure. It's really very simple, if TA is not your thing - don't read a TA thread. If you really feel so inadequate that you must post your 'enlightened' opinions then start your own anti-TA threads away from here and stop diluting this excellent thread.
  8. A week ago I posted this and was thinking that the last cycle peak was in @10,200. Now that btc has dropped to the exact area I originally forecast I am revisiting to see if I may have got the peak wrong. If you take the 10,400 as the last cycle peak instead of the first peak of a new cycle, the model would be intact and this scenario would now have us starting a new cycle with a nice movement upwards after the dip to 9,452, still in an uptrend. This would be the optimistic scenario ! We'll see...
  9. One of the previous occasions when this pattern has occurred at the start of the cycle was when btc went from 7,400 to 13,750. Not saying that will happen again, but it's interesting to observe... Major up-trends are still intact, though some of the local ones have failed.
  10. This was my analysis from Oct/Nov 2019...we are pretty close on our post-halving peak estimates - let's hope we are right
  11. Btc dropped from the last cycle peak of 10,200, but did not hit 9,400 as I had expected (I had also highlighted the area where it did turn but thought that was less likely). Now we look to have started climbing the first peak of a new cycle : 1. All up-trends still intact 2. Price crossed above FLD (fuchsia) 3. Displaced MA's are up 4. Previous cycle peaks are right-shifted (up-trend)
  12. There is a good chance that the cycle top is now in around 10,200. If that is the case we enter the last downward impulse of this cycle which could finish around 9,400. Need to watch that area to see if a major uptrend line holds.
  13. and 2 days later, off we go. Just crossed the octave at 10007, onwards and upwards...
  14. Were you an Enron senior executive by any chance ?
  15. Hard to say as I am finding that my interpretation of Hurst cycles is more accurate on pricing than timing. That said, I estimate the consolidation to be short term, ie. a couple of days +/-.
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