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  1. haha - well then a single feather !
  2. and mathematical probability given my overly conservative nature is that i am off by at-least 50% but on the other side :-).. its literally like i have pluck a strand of hair of those traditional market beasts.
  3. please feel free ! please have the safety disclaimers in all re-posting. Kindly, R8
  4. i would give full maturity at-least 2 to 3 years and no more then 4 years. and as maturity increases, main stream acceptance increases and as that increases the money coming in increases. Just to point out the money inflow has already started, but in very small quantities...
  5. Both very good points, but I have a slightly different answer on Ripple's perspective. Please find my inputs below: 1.) in case of crash & flight to safety. What is safe ? something registered, legal , answerable - Something fixed, certain, Something that is not entirely based on speculation - Something that has a legal guardian to answer, something that can be sued in court on wrong doing, something that can be out of "government" and other central party control, Something that works and is error free ! Something that can be held in your possession without having to depend on others. Something that can be easily carried and easily hidden. For the precise reasons i have mentioned, I think Ripple is one of the best flight to safety assets. perhaps second to bitcoin & gold in terms of flight to safety. Defintiely better then many stocks ( which is certificate and not asset ) , derivatives etc etc. definitely better then holding at a bank that can freeze your account. 2.) Competition/Innovation here, If not more important then Competition, at-least as equally important is licensing, regulatory clearances, frameworks, partnerships and ease of on-boarding. Due to these difficulties and other red-tape reasons (in which Ripple is like literally 6+ years ahead of its time)- simple improvements does not have good chances of replacement at all. The innovation that can make ripple obsolete- will have to be fundamental in nature,, making ripple look like a cart in front of race car ( like how ripple is making swift look ) and After that, the new innovation will have to start its own regulatory & red-tape journey to get somewhere close to where ripple is today. In terms of general evaluation, very safe to say, even if such great innovation shows up and matures as technology in say next 3 years, then laying regulatory foundation with all the red tape internationally is going to take another 5 to 6 years. For small and minor innovation we can imply forget it. it does not stand a chance. Please feel free and let me know if i am thinking wrong in some place or missing out something important. Much Appreciated. Kindly, R8
  6. haha that's a good one, and i think you are right ! merely by facts and developing trends, that's were we are going, once it crosses two usd, my xrpchat nickname would have failed for good and I will be very happy to upgrade it !
  7. Very well put and also very true. the "liberation" of held-up float throughout the financial system, by itself is such a big deal. Also this is one of those places, where Ripple is the only tech equipped to do this with right partnership and everything else. anything that is too far from real time cannot achieve the same.
  8. Thanks and Yes, I am sure we will get more clear picture and evaluation as we cover more corners and analyse various aspects. Please feel free to share, making sure the safety disclaimers are present. kindly, R8
  9. hold 'safely' , take precautions on safety and then sleep happy ! come back say once in a while - what a peaceful investment strategy ! :-)
  10. Yep, I want to wait for few more months , at least till September and get a better feel on how it is moving. But that would literally complete the picture i suppose - Covering all major corners.
  11. Exactly, this is a pure "investment money" report, Completely focusing on the investment money available in the world and how much might 'actually' move in to ripple. The additional use cases add their own respective value. Lets call this as "the world market & investor" use-case. thanks for pointing out. I am going to put a note on top.
  12. you are right IThis report considers investment money - including speculation money. I had done a pure use case based report in 2014. This time i have done a pure "investors" report. Completely focusing on the investment money available in the world and how much might 'actually' move in to ripple conservatively speaking.
  13. ** Disclaimer 01 : This is my personal opinion only ** Disclaimer 02 : This is NOT Trading advice, if you use, at your own risk. I myself don't trade regularly, and this is part my new market learning experience ** Important Note : Please note that, this report is a pure "investment money" report, Completely focusing on the investment money available in the world and how much might 'actually' move in to ripple. The additional use cases add their own respective value. Lets call this as "the world market & investor" use-case. Other use cases include Banks , remittances, liquidity operations etc etc, which all add their own appreciation, value and demand for the asset as well. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ As I mentioned in my previous article, I wanted to do a comparison of traditional markets, their market-caps, evaluation and finally compare their performances. As I feel the time is right and the money from more traditional markets have just started trickling down to the crypto-market, I am doing this evaluation today. Hope you find this helpful. How "BIG" is the entire Crypto Market ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ and what are their value propositions: >> Bitcoin : Store of value, which is like Gold not in control of Governments, BUT Unlike Gold - Easy to move around & Easy to Hide. >> Ripple : Is creating an entire new Value-Network - the age of Internet of Value >> Ethereum : Gives a new meaning to Money, now you can represent yours/your Organizations "Contract" to determine value. >> DASH : Takes privacy to a whole new level. World TOP 5 traded Companies ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Lets now see worlds TOP 5 traded companies and how BIG they are in comparison to Crypto Markets. Just to remind you Images might have been scaled own, But they are all Formed to scale to represent real ratio. So THIS IS REAL. Value Proposition of top 5 companies: ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Apple : Makes Computing Devices ( Not Dominant Maker ) and Mobile Devices - Mainly iPhone ( Dominant Player ) Google : Search and Internet Dominance. Advertiser, Maker of Android & provider of Host of Services ( You tube/Mail/Maps etc etc ) Exxon-Mobil : Oil and Gas Giant - Essential for life. Fundamental services. Microsoft : Maker of Windows OS, and host of other tool suites ( Development/Office etc ) Berkshire Hathaway : Investor , Does nothing, Just Trades, invests in other companies and Makes money from it. So as always being conservative, lets assume the first four companies - No money is coming out as they are producers. And lets be very conservative and assume just 0.1 % of Berkshire Hathaway money will at some point get invested into Crypto Markets ( 333 Million US Dollars ). Reasons : Crypto markets are going mainstream and gaining wider acceptance. As ti becomes safer to invest, its perfectly plausible that an investment company that does nothing but investing, will invest some money in here. and we are assuming the tiniest bit of money. Now lets take a look at the world's traded Gold and Silver markets: ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ how big are they really and how they compare to Crypto Markets size ? we are not talking about just mined gold and silver here, we are talking about everything that is traded in fiat world as well. That includes spot gold and silver markets like Comex etc. Some Important Points. : >> Unlike the TOP 5 companies, Gold does not have huge industrial applications, while mined silver has close to 11% as maximum industrial use. So we can safely say around 1.9 Trillion of this money is just "safe" , "Wealth Preservation" and "hedging" investments. >> Secondly, Gold and Silver prices are heavily managed by World governments and real price setting is almost impossible. Rise in Gold price is seen as failure of state. Investors are "Sick and Tired" of not benefiting and profiting from true "Price Discovery". Given, the above observation, and again being very conservative, we can safely assume that at the least 10 percent of this money is going to move to Crypto markets. however because of the nature of Gold preservation they value "store of value" more then "utility value". So lets say over next one to two years, just 5 percent of that money comes to altcoins. That is going to be 250 Billion US Dollars How big is the remaining World stock market without the top five companies ? ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ VERY BIG. to be fair lets also include Corporate Bonds and Stocks together. as they both are not backed by any governments. the below report comes from page 35 of Credit Suisse's markets report at end of 2014. points: >> World Stock Markets excluding the top 5 stands at 60 Trillion USD >> Corporate Bonds stand at 35 Trillion USD. Now corporate bonds are traditionally considered low risk investments. We can all agree that crypto is anything by Low Risk. So lets ignore it. Also as the numbers are getting this big, i am not going to be doing picture-comparison of the same. I am sure by now the above few pictures gave the idea & you can make pictures in your mind pretty accurately. Remaining is 60 Trillion USD Stock Market. Now lets do something. Lets divide this into Small Cap, Mid Cap and Large Cap. also lets mark them with their risk factors. According to a recent Cleveland Fed report, the approximate values follow: Small Caps (High Risk) = 21 % @ 7.56 Trillion USD Mid Caps (medium Risk) = 33% @ 19.8 Trillion USD Large Caps (Low Risk) = 46 % @ 27.6 Trillion USD Now, Crypto Markets at-least next many years are going to be "high Risk". So lets assume, again being very conservative, and lets assume, just 5% of Small Caps and merely 1 % of Mid Caps enter Cyrpto Markets. Lets ignore the large cap, and say none of the money from large cap come to crypto as they are considered low risk. that would be, 5% of 7.56 trillion = 378 billion USD & 1% of 19.8 Trillion = 198 Billion USD. So a total of 576 billion US Dollars out of this, as these are High Risk investors and like risky high potential plays, we can assume safely that atleast 50 % will enter altcoin markets. that would be 275 Billion USD. Now, lets ignore Treasures and Government bonds completely as they are again considered Low Risk and secure investments. So whats left you say ? Something very special. THE GLOBAL REAL ESTATE Market. Hmm, Real Estate , How big ? ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ its a total of 290 Trillion US Dollars. and is composed of the following parts: $180 Trillion is for Publicly owned Real Estate $100 Trillion is for Registered Private Businesses and offices $10 Trillion is for Extralegal entities. you can read more details here. anyhow, some Important Points: Real estate is over valued and has become unyielding investments. Most of the free market real estate are overvalued and lacking new demand. It is safe to say world is a bit overbuild for at-least next 5 to 8 years. the latest MSCI reports prove this. So once again, to do a size comparison we don't have enough space on entire screen of a normal monitor. So lets just get to the numbers. Lets ignore Extralegal entities, Royalties etc. Lets also ignore Business and office places etc. Lets just get down to real estate & property investments. Out of 180 Trillion, it is estimated that only 80 trillion are actual households. 100 Trillion is various real estate businesses invested for appreciation, various managers, letting agencies etc. So this 100 trillion is basically an investment looking for return. It cannot sustain without returns. and returns are fading. Also note that these investors already have their positions in Bullion, Stocks, Bonds etc. So, considering all this, lets randomly but conservatively assume at least 2% of them will look for new investment avenues to survive and make profit. and lets say out of that 2 percent, just 0.5 percent ends up entering crypto space. 0.5 % of 100 trillion is 500 Billion US Dollars. Unlike, gold investors, real estate investors are looking for growth and respect utility more. they understand diversification as well. So lets say out of that 500 Billion, just 40% money enters altcoin. that is 200 Billion USD. Now the fun begins : ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ So from various sources described above we can very conservatively say that at the least ( 200 + 275 + 250 + 0.3 = ) 725.3 Billion USD will enter alt-coin markets ( I have excluded bitcoin and have given more weight to bitcoin and this is the remaining ) Lets assume, Ripple will just have the current interest and will not gain any more fundamental traction. Then as per current valuations, the percentages follow. Alt Coin percentage Break down as of May 18th : Ethereum : 33 % Ripple : 35 % DASH : 2.3 % Litecoin : 4.65 % Others : 25.05 % So, out of 725.3 Billion, Just assuming the current fundamental's remain and nothing adverse happens. We can safely say 35 % of the 725.3 Billion will enter Ripple in next 2 to 3 years at max, given the condition of world economy. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 35% of ~725 is 253 Billion USD. Lets say Total Supply in the market by then will increase by 15% ( considering the previous distribution graph & some safety buffer for expanding use-case ) .. that is going to be 45 Billion Ripple @ 253 billion USD. OR 1 RIPPLE AT THE RATE OF 5.62 USD AND this also matches perfectly with the LONGWAVE Signals i have detected here. this is just tying a story around it. Hope this has given you some good & sound insights. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ***** @PS : If you see i have made any major mistakes, please correct me by commenting below. But when we study world markets, this seems perfectly plausible to me. I have heard so many people ask for the max price ripple can go. In my view this is a very conservative estimate of what the ripple's minimum price can be in full fruition. Additional real use-cases add their respective values as well. Here we see, Ripple as an investment vehicle can gain 5.63 USD + remittance use-case alone can contribute at-least 2 USD to make it work, just those two bring Ripple close to 8 dollars. Kindly, R8
  14. For the true use case, XRP shoudl efficiently meet the characteristics of collateral and at any point in time, a mean demand curve represents total value that XRP has to represent. In other words price will take care of it. this is the most efficient method in my opinion by pure mathematics of it.
  15. there is too much confusion about evaluation. few points of clarity from a long timer. 1.) Asset evaluation does not mean company evaluation. As asset evaluates higher, the holding reduces. that's the law of nature, as it becomes critical , to become critical, the holders are many. 2.) Apple comparison is a bit misleading to say the least - I am from traditional markets and I can challenge apples worth to be far less then it is. Most of its evaluation comes from where ? Large central banks holding its share,s it being part of almost every managed tech etf, and also further since last semi-decade following up with low-interest debt based share buy back. Is its evaluation real ? and similarly if XPR goes to 1 USD will it all be Ripple's evaluation ? A little bit more thought will clarify these things, i am really surprised people take ti for granted. now that is out of the way .. whats Ripple's true potential... lets go with Satoshi ... and his 1 million btc... was he worth that much ? his idea ? innovation ? Market judged it was, so it was ... right ? same with Ripple... . Now the last point that is factual... When one thinks of evaluation, one shoudl think of total currency supply, relative market sizes etc.... because evaluation is not "realization". "Evaluation is just that. I suggest you take a look at stock market evaluation, T bonds / bunds and gilt evaluation, Bullion evaluation, debt and mortgage evaluation ( almost every one of them is in multi trillions ) and lastly take a look at currency and derivative markets. hope this adds much required clarity. It is easy to be confused in this area because in a complex interconnected world inflation and deflation is not in uniform spread - in terms of money supply expansion. As an example : Fed's balance sheet has expanded 40 x times, however - money supply has expanded 100+ x times since 2001. however, the beef jerky you buy has only doubled in price since 2005. the crude oil you buy has reduced by over 35 to 40 % and the 100k two bedroom home on the street corner is now 1 million, but it gets worse, a certain painting that was 300k is now 8 million.