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Showing content with the highest reputation since 06/09/2020 in Posts

  1. 45 points
  2. 33 points
    I have been threatening to do this for some time: Crypto @Eri produces bulletins packed with the latest news about Ripple/XRP, SBI. She provides analysis that is very often unique and insightful and depends on translating Japanese links. The sort of new information that should be discussed on this open forum. My intention is to start a rolling thread of subject matter she is introducing. Bullet points: SWIFT is becoming more accommodation towards collaboration (video clips) with outside companies like R3 - but at the same time they have been dragging their feet over the ISO20022 standards New Digital banks are growing and changing the landscape of cross border remittance industry, and removing the need to use big banks Markus Treacher has announced that new ODL corridors will soon be arriving in Asia-Pacific, Middle East and Africa The remittance industry is worth 500 billion but has contracted about 20% due to the corona virus pandemic. This squeeze is leading to demand for greater efficiencies which can be satisfied by moving to ODL solutions The SME market is being served by new types of banks like Remessa and Bex Banks. These banks serve Brazil/ Argentina and Chile using ODL. The market is huge And then there is the fluff - cultural news from Japan - I will let you find out for yourself. So everybody - let's beat the negativity and instead of constantly harping on about price, lets discuss how the network is growing and speculate on where our investments are likely to grow and spread new roots.
  3. 29 points
    The first Japan to Korea ODL has been recorded. Japan has been added to the utility scan, but it could be weeks or months before we see daily ODL between Japan and other users. https://twitter.com/UtilityScan/status/1277943529101242368/photo/1 The expectation is that a remittance corridor between Japan and Vietnam will be opened up as SBI have a big share of this remittance corridor and are well placed to make it happen. Utility scan have added the Japanese flag
  4. 29 points
  5. 25 points
    Hi folks, Been awhile, thank you for reading. I don't write too often these days, but I have seen enough interesting things over the past few months that I feel it is absolutely time to speak up and share my observations. I could be entirely wrong, and I am NOT a fanboy by any means. I dislike hype in the markets as much as the next person. Before it was nuked, I mentioned in the Zerpening that there are many ways to get to $589/XRP - the dollar can go down, or the utility can go up, or both. Something really interesting has developed in terms of the timeline we have seen since the beginning of 2020. The first thing I want to bring up, is the statement made repeatedly by Ripple that 2020 will be the year of the digital asset. This commentary came in the shadow of an exhausted repo market that was already struggling with liquidity to keep up with overnight deals in 2019: https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/30/the-fed-seems-to-have-halted-a-potential-crisis-in-the-repo-market.html The first observation that I made regarding rhythmic volume patterns down to the midnight hour of weekends, and we've all recognized it by now: The ever increasing sine wave of programmatic activity that was so carefully balanced it had very little impact on price in comparison to speculative movement. No terribly high values in comparison, but a considerable amount of XRP had been flowing, changing hands, etc. The volume generated during these weeks on a daily basis outpaced the volume we saw during the last meteoric bullrun, yet the prices never even came close to $0.50. Consider when OTC sales dropped from XRP II. Consider when we started seeing a parabolic rise in XRP distribution - this liquidity wave is a lagging indicator of this initial distribution increase (in my opinion): https://www.ccn.com/ripple-potentially-sped-up-its-xrp-distribution-timeline-by-21-years-crypto-researchers/ In response to the outcry (so the narrative goes), we are told they curtailed sales - I believe it is likely that the curtail in sales and the client flows they have access to allowed them to predict that the liquidity waves they generated using their initial escrow formula would wash out this month. They knew when they started slowing down institutional sales that the liquidity they pumped into the system would ripple and wash out in waves. But why publicly shout about turning the controls now? The Greg Kidd interview indicated that the mentality of Ripple concerning the escrow is precisely the following: Ripple views the ownership of its warchest as if it were a central bank, preventing monumental flushes of liquidity from creating too much volatility. I believe what we have witnessed with the weekly wave of programmatic trading was a test of the smoothing effect of the XRP ODL platform - could it operate in the background and transparently hold a floor value? I believe they got their fortunate market test case on March 12th, when the entire market dips and the subsequent Maker/Dao/Eth $0 automated auction siphon slurped unfettered value out of ETH and drained the rest of the market with it. https://blog.makerdao.com/recent-market-activity-and-next-steps/ https://blog.makerdao.com/the-market-collapse-of-march-12-2020-how-it-impacted-makerdao/ We went to $0.11 - it was terrible, but it could have easily gone far lower with the rapid liquidity XRP provides. We already know how bad those swings can go. But the waves continued, we rebounded along with the rest of the market, but we held oddly steady at $0.20 while the rest of the market fluctuated in a more loosely coupled manner. I've mention on a few video comment boards the $0.17 Sunday. This is the most interesting piece to me as of late. There are a few interesting things that we know right now. First, we know that ODL is transitioning to smaller payments - the wave or large payments is over. Interesting. Second, we know that many central banks are planning to adopt DLT through R3 Corda as the backbone for their CBDC development: https://www.r3.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/r3_CBDC_report.pdf Do we know how much XRP r3 has an option on? Was it necessary to rebuild the warchest in order to shift liquidity pools to appropriate areas? How much does r3 need for its central bank partners? Third, we've had suspicious unique XRP market flash buys on three distinct and evenly spaced weekends - each one driving the price of XRP up and then down by $0.03 roughly, only to return to stability at close to the original price. What would it take to move the markets in these brief 5 minute flashes? Let's say it likely take the sale of between 5.5-6 million XRP to drop the price from $0.20 - $0.17 - the cost to do this on bitstamp, as it turns out, is around $1mil USD. This sure seems like something that a person would take to the OTC market, but we've had THREE weekend buys. May 10 - I'll admit this first one was disguised pretty well behind a general market crash: May 24: June 8: The OTC markets are drying up. That's the only thing I can really assume at this point. Why would anyone take this sort of risk on the open market three times? The three opportunities on a regular timeline: My feeling is that - particularly in the most recent case, you have a very clear out in the open market massive million dollar transfer arranged - if not three - and where is OTC? Are we witnessing the effects of a quantitative tightening on the part of Ripple? Are they expecting there to be a significant liquidity crisis in fiat that would make XRP far more valuable to them as a company in their control than outside of it? I believe that Ripple is rebuilding and rebalancing their warchest for a new volley of managed liquidity. I think they are shifting to smaller payment volumes because they are anticipating advanced volatility in the dollar, likely to the downside, and they are aware that the consequences this will have on the value of XRP will allow them to handle far more international remittances with far less XRP. Another sign? They are interested in XRP loaning partners - yet another form of quantitative tightening - in addition, this builds a redemption floor as more and more liabilities are stack on XRP and require either XRP or a comparable amount of other currencies to redeem. The beauty of the ledger - again going back to the Greg Kidd interview - is that with the XRP Ledger a person is able to settle in a variety of avenues and handle many different interchangeable currencies - and this should really go in both directions - we should be able to loan against XRP secured in escrow on the ledger - but we can also issue stablecoins or other assets on the ledger that are backed by other assets so long as a reliable pricing channel exists - and none of this takes away from the value of XRP as a transport of value. I can't make price predictions - and I won't. What I will say is that I feel like quantitative tightening of XRP in tandem with the bitcoin halving is likely a chess move considered way in advance, and I think that if other currencies releasing proof of stake equally depress the circulating token supply as fiat inflation kicks in - particularly if the sentiment that Blockchain Backer shares in his recent video on the stock market hype cycle playing into a dropping dollar value, it makes perfect sense for Ripple to wind back its XRP distribution plans in order to be able to handle more smaller payments with fewer XRP per transaction. I think it is a pretty ballsy move if this is in fact what they are doing - because they would be effectively betting against the value of the dollar without directly saying so. At the end of the day I feel like this move by Ripple anticipates an increase in price - to what extent I do not know.
  6. 24 points
    It's very worrying. If ODL isn't cheaper than conventional moneymarkets, then it won't get used. Dropping from 15m a day to 2m was a massive change yesterday and after reading that report last night I immediately sold a chunk of my xrp. I will wait to see if volume comes back before dipping my toes back in. That report raised a huge red flag for me and it's the first time in almost 3 years that I've strongly doubted the xrp experiment. My greatest worry has been that institutions using ripplenet get instant settlement which allows them to change the way they rebalance their accounts and so even using 'old fashioned' nostro/vostro over ripplenet is saving costs to such an extent that the original estimates of what ODL would save on top of that just have not taken place. The fact that they have had to pay MGI such large amounts to use ODL (build liquidity) was disturbing, and now dropping large payments altogether gives me reason to pull back and wait. The departure of Miguel Vias troubled me too, as he was responsible for building liquidity. Those large payments made up the majority of transactions, if they were saving MGI money, they wouldn't stop it overnight (perhaps it was just costing ripple far more than mgi was saving and they've had to renogotiate terms on that deal) - either way, I will wait and watch to see if ODL volume returns. I'm still curious to know how the western union interest plays out. (Apologies for this somewhat downbeat post. I'm usually quite positive about xrp, but not today).
  7. 21 points
    https://payid.org/ Why Ripple Supports PayID: https://ripple.com/insights/why-ripple-supports-payid/ Fortune article about the project: Ripple launches PayID allowing users to send digital payments across different platforms https://fortune.com/2020/06/18/ripple-launches-universal-payment-id-but-will-anyone-use-it/
  8. 21 points
  9. 18 points
  10. 17 points
    I've watched a few of her videos now, and mostly she seems to be lucid and makes good points - but in this video she didn't say anything of value or interest to me. I realize that she has no idea of the data collecting I do since I do not post to twitter, but trust me. I've looked at number of transactions vs $$$ value of transactions many times and I couldn't give a rats arse about number of transactions. The idea that we can have either lots of quails' eggs or one ostrich egg is laughable. I would like to have ostrich and quail eggs together. The fact that they have killed the ostriches should be enough to tell you that this was not sustainable. There is only one thing that matters as far as I'm concerned and that is $$$ flow through the network. Tell Eri to do some maths. you can do N large transactions in a day with a bid spread of 10 basis points and a market maker will earn $$$ - this is what will drive value into xrp. If you take those N large transactions and break them into 100xN transactions of 100x smaller value each, then costs will rise and you have to have a smaller bid/spread to make up for it. This gives market makers less $$$ (a bad thing). Now the upside is that costs on smaller transactions are generally higher as a % than on larger ones, so in fact you can push up bid/spread rates on smaller transactions and market makers can in fact earn more without hurting the customer (as David Schwartz has alluded to in one of his tweets where he says to consider small transactions rather than $$$) - but this graph tells me all I need to know for now. $$$ is down and I could not care less about #transaction count. When the value flowing through the network rises back up to where it was and beyond - then I will start smiling again. CryptoEri just doesn't understand this stuff and her video is not "excellent" - it's rubbish. edit: typos + yes I am grumpy, and yes, I am worried. Especially that I might start getting likes from @LetHerRip edit2: Apologies to cryptoeri in case she reads this - she probably does understand this stuff, she just doesn't talk about it in her video edit3: And don't start me on her reference to SamIAm asking "hard questions". I try to refrain from being rude on the internet, but the guy is a borderline moron! (and apologies to him if he's reading too, but I need to get it off my chest).
  11. 17 points
    Interesting comments from David Schwartz regarding yesterday's article from Ripple hopefully providing further clarity. Per the comments, my take is that ODL volume has primarily been comprised of treasury payments and from there the company in charge of those treasury payments sends/allocates the payouts as necessary. The main pitch of using XRP is high throughput low fees thereby making smaller payments not only cost efficient but feasible to execute (EX: sending $5 when the wire fee is $5+ - no one will take on this type of transaction). Ripple's article provided no mention that larger payments would be ignored nor did it state that large payments will never be processed through XRPL via XRP. The article highlight a new focus on the primary use case - high payment volume comprised of small $ payments. Per comment #2 below, it seems that this original use case (small payments w/ high volume) may have not been clearly proven out. Given this, Ripple may be taking a step back (who knows what the exact drivers of this business decision were) in order to prove out the use case. Most large companies won't approve investment decisions or approve internal changes to company processes without clear data points. This isn't a shift in their use case it's a refocusing effort on the primary use case to prove it out. In the long run this may attract more new clients to take advantage of a proven out use case that can add value to a business. Think uber drivers sending money from their uber account to their bank account after each ride - the current payment infrastructure doesn't allow this however, if ripple can prove their ability to make these transactions feasible and gain a % of that business then it could translate to high ODL volume. Take it as you may - just my two cents. Constructive commentary welcome as always. EDIT: Key piece of the original article from Ripple below. Sounds to me like they want to focus on more XRP use (not less) via low-value high frequency payments rather than XRP being used to move large funds from a treasury account in the US to the same companies treasury account in Mexico, which may happen less frequently. The silver lining here is that based on the ODL volume we've seen tracked by the likes of @jbjnr we can say that XRP does in fact work for Treasury type transfers and millions of dollars (USD, PHP, MXN, and AUD) have already been processed via this subset of the overall payments use case. Whether or not it's currently that much more efficient is another question and could be why Ripple is focusing on low value high frequency payments as a way to garner more liquidity such that Treasury payments becomes more efficient.
  12. 16 points
    Do you remember that campaign strategy "Its the economy, stupid"? With ODL/Ripplenet think "It's the network, stupid" The value of a token is only as good as the network that supports it, which includes all sorts of whistles and bells: exchanges, developers, FIs, APIs, tokens, use cases, cross party software, protocols ...etc. To understand your investment is maturing forget ODL volume and instead watch the network development and adoption. The value will come in after the networks are set up, and the entry of the new investment money might be explosive and unstoppable..
  13. 15 points

    Epic Pennant on BTC Chart

    I think Bitcoin is generally following a similar pattern to the last cycle which would put us a point the equivalent of Midish 2016. Expecting that Bitcoin Retakes the ATH sometime by the end of the year then start it's gradual run leading to a parabolic top in a year or so (12-16 months). XRP really only had one cycle - basically it seems that XRP has long periods of just flatlining followed by explosive growth. Just waiting on the explosive growth.
  14. 15 points
    It's a standard format for payment addresses. Just like name@example.com is a standard email address format, PAYID members have agreed to use name$example.com as a standard payment address format. Just as email addresses can be issued by email or domain service providers, payid addresses can be issued by payment service providers. Just as an email address abstracts away an IP address, a payid can abstract away account numbers or long complicated crypto addresses. Payid isn't a payment architecture (i.e. payid payments aren't made through any specific network), it's just the payment addresses. So it can work for payments between any two parties who adopt the payid scheme and have established payment rails between them. From a UX perspective, this is much much better. You don't have to remember long crypto addresses or account numbers. It also makes it easier to make payments across networks that interoperate. In the current world of siloed payment networks, implementing an addressing scheme for making payments from Chase to a bitcoin account would likely lead to a solution that doesn't generalize. Payid is a general solution. So rather than you trying to pay me from Chase bank account #363552837; routing #222002847 -> bitcoin address 1F1tAaz5x1HUXrCNLbtMDqcw6o5GNn4xqX the resulting payment flow from a user perspective could look like you$chase.com -> me$bitcoin.com. Pretty. Ripple believes that by removing barriers to interoperability, more payments will naturally flow through crypto which will in turn increase volume through RippleNet and XRPL.
  15. 15 points

    Epic Pennant on BTC Chart

    The Bottom Bollinger Band on Bitcoin's Chart is about to cross the Down Trend Line. This has not happened since September 28, 2016. Bands are tightening. Move is coming probably in the $2K plus range. I think the move will be up - the current economics conditions are just what the doctor ordered for Bitcoin, the post halving purge is over and we are starting the next cycle where price increases. As far as CSW, did you see that last letter that was released on twitter?? It's absurd. It doesn't seem to have been written by someone with a full command of the English language, let alone an attorney. Here is a link to it. https://twitter.com/Excellion/status/1271468034931036160/photo/1 Shorting BitcoinSV is a very good idea in my opinion. I don't want to hurt anyone's feelings but to me BitcoinSV supporters are like Bitconnect supporters were before the scheme unraveled . - Vocal, hopeful, dedicated, naive and soon to be bankrupt. I think most of the crypto community no longer takes any of CSW's claims seriously. The three major ongoing lawsuits in crypto or NYAG vs. Tether, Fraud suit against Ripple, and Kleiman vs. CSW. I think the NYAG's suit is BS and I think CSW's is even less important. The lawsuit against Ripple - when that is dismissed, which I think it will be, that will actually mean something.
  16. 14 points
    Amazon started as an online bookstore in 1995, its history did not begin in 2004 as you decided to cherry-pick the data. It had an IPO in 1997 and was part of the .com bubble in 1998/1999, when every pet store that owned a .com domain mooned like there was no tomorrow. No fundamentals whatsoever, yet every tech stock went parabolic. Just like crypto in 2017. If anything, you can compare the 1999 .com bubble with 2017 crpyto bubble, you cannot just arbitrarily choose 2004 as a start. Here’s a graph of Amazon stock during the .com bubble: There was nothing to justify the price of Amazon during those first years. It went from 1.50 USD to 105 USD in less than 2 years, then fell all the way down to 6 USD in the following 3 years. That’s about -95% from ATH. Sounds familiar? Amazon also had its fair share of pivoting and tipping its toes in different sectors to find its place in the industry. Remember, it started as an online bookstore. During those times, investors doubted it will ever survive. From Wikipedia ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Amazon ): “According to sources, Amazon did not expect to make a profit for four to five years. This comparatively slow growth caused stockholders to complain that the company was not reaching profitability fast enough to justify their investment or even survive in the long-term. In 2001, the dot-com bubble burst destroyed many e-companies in the process, but Amazon survived and moved forward beyond the tech crash to become a huge player in online sales.” The bolded text is like Wikipedia describing the XRP Chat forum and all its recent doom and gloom through an article about Amazon in the early 2000s
  17. 14 points
    Here's the new XRP Weekly Report issue, examining why the reset of ODL makes sense - and if you haven't seen Brad's latest video yet, he offers an interesting look back and ahead: https://cryptoking.org/xrp-weekly-report-june-12-2020-why-ripples-odl-reset-is-not-a-bad-thing/
  18. 13 points

    A short reminder

    As you may have noticed: there are no markets, anymore as central banks are massively intervening and buying everything in order to prevent a major crisis and thereby also a healthy correction, unfortunately. This has, by the way, been predicted around 20-30 years ago by Paul C. Martin (Debitism) and is now recogniced by different financial analysts (e.g. Leonhard Fischer who said in an interview that the middle class is the loser of this game). In short, the debitistic dilemma means that states must at some point fail in their own pre-financing, which forces them to expand permanently. It is now impossible to raise interest rates without triggering a crisis at the same time. Because of this situation, central banks are trying to save everyone by simply buying up everything the market can offer. Companies can issue bonds directly to the FED and do what they want with the money - even speculate on the stock market. The same applies to the Treasury's loans to companies - the money is not earmarked for a specific purpose. As of October 1, the whales (banks) are allowed to gamble again - with the customers' deposits (i.e. the cash holdings of their customers). The Volcker Rule, which was introduced to prevent another financial crisis, will now be abolished again. JPMorgan expects the central banks to expand the monetary base by another $15 trillion by mid 2021. The top 10% of the wealthy take advantage of this situation by taking out loans at favourable rates and jumping on this bandwagon. As a result, share prices are also rising contrary to any expectations of returns in the real economy (especially due to the collapse in orders, which has been exacerbated by the Corona crisis). Take a look at the share value of Tesla, for example. Really? Then I don't know what the situation in the USA looks like, but here in Germany there is a massive real estate bubble and there is also massive demand for precious metals (especially gold), which in some cases leads to physical delivery problems. The one who has nothing (the lower class) cannot invest, but also loses nothing, since he has nothing to lose from the outset. Those who are hit hardest belong to the middle class: blue-collar workers, white-collar workers. Basically everyone who has some assets, but not enough to get cheap loans and to be able to compensate for any losses. It is precisely this class that finances the state and is currently being fleeced. As they are now subject to the highest taxation in the world in Germany (we are talking about up to 42% income tax plus health, social and nursing care insurance) and at the same time the water is being dug out of them, a flight abroad began. On top of that, they spend about 80 billion euros (conservatively estimated) annually here for so-called "refugees" who cannot be integrated into the labour market. And the trend is rising. In my opinion, it is only a matter of time before the whole thing implodes - worldwide. But until then, the party goes on. At the moment, a turnaround is looming with regard to the USD/EUR exchange rate. This is likely to be due on the one hand to the aforementioned glut of money and on the other to the planned EU debt union. The corresponding chart looks like this: What is left over when currencies are diluted and stocks, real estate and precious metals are pushed to unprecedented heights? Government bonds, which are considered safe, are becoming increasingly risky and do not generate returns anyway. So sooner or later, cryptos will also rise to new highs. On the one hand, because it allows you to hide capital and move it out of the country. On the other hand, because here you find another possibility to diversify your assets and the crypto market has corrected itself "healthy" since about 2 years. Regarding XRP in particular, I can only say that I do not understand their strategy at the moment and honestly wonder why they have not made the big breakthrough yet. I also don't know what is really true about the rumor that they want to create an additional currency anchor together with central banks. I haven't paid enough attention to this in recent months. The XRP chart itself has not changed, however, as the channel boundaries have so far been adhered to. This means that it still points to a crazy outbreak around September. I'm curious, but also cautious, to make another really big entry now (got my stash) - just because of the current dangerous world situation. The best advice is probably to diversify your assets as much as possible and to write off life and pension insurance in your mind.
  19. 13 points

    XRP Research Collective

    Hi everyone, long time lurker here. Over the last year, I have seen XRP Chat fall into a downward spiral. Whether you personally care or not, the price is not where most would like it to be, so people become angry/leave/only react out of spite. The lambomoonboys are gone, thank god, but it seems that they have been replaced by trolls, Maxi's and general gloom. And that's a shame. XRP Chat is shrinking and the number of in-depth analyses and qualified speculation has dropped with it. That's what I would like to change. I would like to start an XRP Research Collective. A group, here on XRP Chat, of likeminded individuals that would rather research the shit out of topics, than to sit, wait and speculate. It's main goal is to find factual information, with some room for 'connecting the dots' for those who want to. I propose a 5 weekday period of purely sourcing and sharing data on one topic, followed by a weekend of connecting dots between the found information. All participants can vote on what topic to research next. By having a specific goal with a specific set of rules, I think we, as a collective, can find so much more information than anyone could alone. Let's work together and get XRP Chat into a positive spiral again! Topics of research could be: SBI, Coil, US regulation, EU regulation, ODL, Ripplenet partners, ... I think we should try to stay as factual as possible, so that everyone can draw his/her own conclusions. So no articles/video's from the Ripple/XRP Army, only from the source (Ripple official, partner pages, government documents). Figure out where they got their information from, and then find the actual source. Let's keep the hopium to a limit, at least until it's the weekend... Please respond if you have any suggestions for the whole set-up, or if you would like to add a topic to the research list. edit:
  20. 13 points
    Anyone parroting about fundamentals in crypto is clueless. Crypto is entirely a speculative gamble and there are no fundamentals. Where are the the revenue, price-to-earnings, free cash flow and earnings-to-growth that fundamental analysis in stocks is based on? There is no fundamental analysis in crypto. You can't base it on hype, POC partnerships of Ripple and the hopium of confirmations in echo chamber investors here and call it fundamentals. Furthermore, it is utterly clueless and moronic to compare Ripple/XRP investment to Amazon hoping it will shoot up like Amazon did from the 2000s. Look at Amazon revenue from the 2000s. It was going up year over year every single year. Their year over year quarterly growth, trailing 12 months over the 2000s look even better. During the 2008/09 recession when everyone stopped building and buying, Amazon was ramping investments to dominate the cloud space for the next 10 years. https://www.datacenterknowledge.com/archives/2009/03/20/amazon-86-million-in-servers-in-2008 Again, right now when most companies are hording cash, Amazon has acquired self-driving company Zoox for over a billion to get ahead of the competition in self-driving fleets and has launched an Aerospace and Satellite Solutions arm to deploy swarms of small satellites encircling the globe to integrate with their cloud offerings. https://www.wsj.com/articles/amazon-launches-space-push-to-drive-cloud-computing-growth-11593489660 Amazon is led by Jeff Bezos one of the most brilliant business strategist of all-time. Meanwhile Ripple is led by Brad Garlinghouse, a corporate parasite from failed DOT COM companies AOL and Yahoo. Amazon innovates, thinks 10 steps ahead, has increased revenue and growth year over year. Ripple hypes meme ideas like xRapid, Coil, ODL, PayID, moves goal posts after failing to deliver and its only revenue is generated by dumping XRP tokens on investors who treat their investment in XRP like a religion.
  21. 13 points

    XRP price $6 - $32 USD

    XRP price valuation VIEW INFOGRAPHIC >> https://www.stedas.hr/xrp-price-valuation.html The only "scientific" valuation approach of the XRP price potential "A Fundamental Valuation Framework for Cryptoassets XRP and BTC" by Susan Athey & Robert Mitchnick (2018) The price for XRP* - $6.37 (low estimate) - $32.91 (high estimate) * expected "steady-state" timeframe 10-12 years (2027-2029) Valuation Approach: Transaction + Storage This approach to valuing cryptoassets integrates the two primary functions of money: 1) medium-of-exchange 2) store-of-value Conclusion of the paper: This result, suggests that both BTC and XRP may have significant upside from current price levels despite the spectacular price appreciation in early 2017. This paper, by contrast, incorporates future unit issuances, consistent with standard finance theory for valuing assets in a dynamic environment. Note that the “High” and “Low” estimates are used to acknowledge the significant imprecision in assigning values to the most complex parameters. They do not reflect the overall range of potential values that these parameters might take, but instead serve as a plausible range of values within the Success Cases for BTC and XRP. About the authors: Susan Athey is the Economics of Technology Professor at the Stanford Graduate School of Business and she also serves on the boards of directors of Ripple Labs. Robert Mitchnick is an MBA candidate at the Stanford Graduate School of Business. He spent time with Ripple in the summer of 2017. He stands in the top 1% of the Stanford GSB Class of 2018. ***** DISCLAIMER: Susan Athey and Robert Mitchnick haven’t been involved in making this infographic.
  22. 13 points
  23. 12 points

    Epic Pennant on BTC Chart

    Bitcoin's Price Action. Bollinger Bands are very tight and getting tighter. The 200 Day EMA just made a Bullish Cross of the Long Term Down Trend Line. The price is right at the Short Term Down Trend Line. As you can tell if you've been following my posts for any amount of time, one of the main things I utilize to determine the direction which the price is headed is the Exponential Moving Averages breaking key Trend Lines. To me the 200 Day EMA movement is a very bullish indicator.
  24. 12 points
    All those publications demonstrate one thing. Do the opposite of what all those publications are writing. It's like CNBC who is silent during a bullrun and start advising you how to buy XRP at the very top of a parabolic when whales started offloading. For the past years they have all been writing continuously that reversals are near, outbreaks are about to happen and yet markets kept tumbling. Since the beginning of 2020 all the media is writing that crypto (XRP especially) is dead, going lower and will never return and yet from technical standpoints the market is reversing. Don't follow mass media, and most of all not bitcoinist, cryptoslate and newsBTC. They are just tools to push retail where they want them to be. 1. Yes, every selling brings downward pressure, but not anymore in the magnitude they want you to believe. 2. Don't listen to retail investors, keep building partnerships behind the curtains, prepare the network and ODL and when the world is ready for it both technically as jurisdictionally it might just have a chance.
  25. 12 points


    The silent majority
  26. 12 points
    That is because you are focusing so much on the size of the volume instead of the flow. Before when ODL carried big payments you just see couple payments move around once every 2 to 4 seconds. Now when you look at it with smaller broken up payments you see XRP flying around like data it is incredible to witness and I can only imagine what it would look like once the corridors start revving up. I have my own theory as to why they have done this and it relates to whale bots and how they increase or decrease prices of Crypto. If you ever observed whale bots at action to lower the price they don't just dump 4 million XRP at a lower price in one or two goes instead they hundreds of bots start selling XRP selling small batches of XRP at a gradual reduced price in small rapid succession across many exchanges to give the impression of a reduction in price that ends up triggering other bots to lower and other traders to sell crashing the price. My theory is Ripple is trying to accomplish something similar except with actual utility and real volume not bots or whale action.
  27. 12 points
    The answer is obvious: we are all going to sell our XRP, and then spend the rest of our lives on this forum talking about XRP.
  28. 12 points

    Epic Pennant on BTC Chart

    Bitcoin's price has dropped below the Short Term Down Trend Line which is currently around $9,433. The 100 Day EMA has crossed the Long Term Down Trend Line and the Bollinger Bands are still moving sideways/tightening. Every time I look at the long term chart I become really bullish. The chart looks to be exactly where it should be for the same chart pattern in 2013-2017 to occur again.
  29. 12 points
  30. 12 points
  31. 12 points
    That it was not sustainable is an assumption. It was never the purpose in the first place to do internal cashflows for any company. Doing both would be fine ofcourse but I doubt liquidity allows that. When combining the tweets both JK and Asheesh Birla posted it seemed they wanted to implement ODL as fast as possible to prove it works. And internal rebalancing flows were the quickest and easiest. Now they've had more time they can tackle the SME's and direct payments. Those are more frequent but smaller when it ramps up. The point of doing those is that a company does not have to do those internal payments anymore/less frequent. And it builds liquidity faster then having big chunks of payment batches depleting orderbooks every 10 minutes. But as with everything, lets keep an eye on the corridors and liquidity.
  32. 12 points

    XRP price $6 - $32 USD

    Lol. Let's hope it does not break below $0.20 to start with.
  33. 11 points

    Crypto Eri - News from the Far East

    Crypto Eri is doing the best job in the whole XRP universe. And she's charming and never aggressive. Even when appalled, she keeps her smile. She should be hired by Ripple as a community manager - because her careful, solid and unwavering approach to deciphering what's going on in the ecosystem is of so much more value to the community and investors than many of Ripple's posts and alerts. Of course those are two different playing levels and fields. Yet Crypto Eri is a reason to keep peace of mind while hodling on to your zerps.
  34. 11 points

    Epic Pennant on BTC Chart

    Bitcoin's price has had 40 closes above the Long Term Down Trend Line and 6 Weekly Closes above that line. The 200 Day EMA will also cross that line tonight.
  35. 11 points
    Here's what I think. PayID is a brilliant project. It is still a small piece of the bigger picture, but an important piece because it engages the end-user in a way that totally comes out of left field for a company that is trying to help big banks. Any large banks is going to look at the potential of this and see it as a real challenge to the corporate banking industry. Setting up a PayID server is as simple as setting up a basic mailserver or dns server. The api calls are simple and straightforward, but in its own it is not a complete solution. However, it supports a very important consideration in terms of providing a user-friendly interface that enthusiasts interested in self-custody can use to provide payment pointers that are compatible across a growing set of networks. It is not a full fledged hosted payment solution - but with apps like XUMM you have a credible threat to brick and mortar banking. We already have exchanges adopting the standard - this is the first shot fired across the bow of retail banking. This brings us to two vast industries that can adopt this standard with relatively little effort: Domains registrars and hosts, and retail banking institutions. The domain reseller and host arena provides the ability to enable payment pointer via PayID that you would need to be able to configure in a secure, zero-knowledge environment where you have the ability to securely make changes to your payment endpoint information. Customers get the bonus have having vanity PayID addresses that incorporate their website branding. e.g. "You can confirm we are receiving payment when you see our payment$brand-x.media address in your banking application." And furthermore "Now you can save your payment pointers without having to directly share your account details with another company." And that brings up the third rail who will adopt this rapidly - ApplePay, GooglePay, AmazonPay. These companies already use account proxies to handle pay-by-phone credit card transactions. How much more value added service would they provide by allowing you to add cryptocurrency and other digital asset accounts as payment options for their existing payment app infrastructure? And paypal... stripe... square... They could adopt it as well - who wouldn't want to use their PayID to pay at a store? Particularly with the way payment technology is heading - instead of verifying your payment details on a third party static terminal, more and more payment rails are expecting you to look at your phone/watch and confirm the payment details there. As more phone incorporate a cryptographic chip that enables the phone to act as a digital wallet key. Banks already provide custodial services for traditional banking customers, but as CBDCs roll out and people are introduced to the idea of government issued digital wallets through which tax rebates are issued, benefit programs are issued, etc. The banks know that high worth individuals are going to want insured custody services that are linked directly to PayID maintenance and management. Enter Polysign, who I believe are developing a hybrid of PayID and SAML so that corporations can provide enterprise grade payment options across their organization and even provide intercorporate vertical/logistics payment integration for clients that are determined by smart contracts. By releasing PayID, they are breaking the egg and releasing the chicken - and as more technology companies cage that chicken and make it lay eggs. --- But what then? What company provides a system that allows you to transfer funds in near realtime across different assets and networks? ODL could provide the liquidity to facilitate that middleware between PayID supporting payment applications and PayID supporting custody solutions. Or they could use ILP endpoints. With a system like PayID being easy to use for end consumer and offering the option of keeping all of your payment accounts secure in an API driven payment scaffolding. In the end the fastest cheapest rails will win - especially if and when paying with PayID will give you time and fee estimates for using different currency rails to pay. I hope folks who are reading can see what is happening here - Ripple is laying down insertion points that are appealing to very clear demographics. And once everyone sits in the comfortable vehicle for modern financial empowerment, the value of the banking rails will be demonstrated, the key for ODL and ILP will be turned on, and the amount of XRP in circulation will likely become very handy and likely valuable. At least that's the way I see it. If you are curious how easy PayID will be to use, here's one I just set up for tips to Uphold. :-D jag216$payid.moregeekthanchic.com
  36. 11 points

    How can we revive XRP Chat?

    The forum will naturally become alive again if the price every finally starts going up. People get tired of talking about all of the developments in the ecosystem when they continue to lose money.
  37. 11 points

    Epic Pennant on BTC Chart

    Bitcoin's 100 Day EMA is crossing the Long Term Down Trend Line - Today. Bullish. In relation to the last cycle, depending on where you draw the Down Trend Line in the last cycle, Bitcoin is the equivalent of anywhere from say March 2016 to Sept 2016 so to speak. Big growth ahead. Would be nice if this also corresponds for XRP.
  38. 11 points

    have some hope

    You take a short lived, low fiat pump and dump peak in 2013, compare it with flattened out lows in 2020 and say it is bad returns. Then compare it with Apple and Tesla which are currently reaching new aths... That XRP, besides the short peak in 2013 was performing around 0,005 dollars most of the years and went to 3,80 in 2017 is not convenient for the comparison I guess. With your methodology of analysis we can come up with dozens of self fitting narratives. Take away all the peaks and lows, look at it at macro level and price went from 0,005 to 0,20 which is a nice return. That most forgot to buy in time and sell out is their loss.
  39. 11 points
    For years now every possible negative thing has been turned as a positive and this seems to finally get a crack. These points have always been downplayed, ignored, twisted or lied about: Dozens of banks will use XRP in 2018 (or was it 2019?) David Schwartz derisking WU saying that their existing infrastructure was as efficient as ODL On reddit Mikenard (he was very active there and generally respected) was talking continuously (in 2017 and throughout 2018) about 2 legs of the trade that one side was a wash trade and the other side created a net positive effect for demand. Even when people repeatedly questioned this theory they were attacked and the parrots did what they did: just repeating the same points without explaining or understanding anything. David Schwartz has disproved this in the mean time that there's no net effect from an ODL transaction. Actual investors telling that XRP is underperforming ODL Volume being a fraction of total volume (and now even barely noticable) XRP is the fastest/cheapest crypto and therefor it'll be SDR, WRC, used by SWIFT, used for Forex, used for derivatives, ... there's obviously nothing that you could be missing or not know about. Board members leaving Bob Way being completely disinterested Stupid (conspiracy) theories by BG123, Brad Kimes, SamIAm, Kevin Cage (he recently said the government would bring the internet down to switch to the IoV and use the COVID crisis overdemand of bandwidth as excuse just hilarious he was like 99% sure or something. So it's fine making these claims since he had 1% left and he continuously seems to hit that 1%) how XRP will go to 589 EOY 2018, then 50$ EOY, then 2k$ May 2019, ... When price goes down you can't talk about price action, you just have to look at the tech and how it'll be 2k$ in May 20129 ... ("the fuse has been lit" bro!) Demand for stablecoins increasing heavily (as told by Daniel Vogel and others in and out of XRP/Ripple specific communities) Liquidity being the most important and sadly liquidity not picking up but being artificial and going down right now. Downplaying bitcoin continuously because it's slower, PoW, ... Extrapolating existing data into new corridors ILP being adopted means XRP being adopted ("Come on in!") SWIFT GPI won't affect Ripple Because you can join Ripplenet easily integrating it in banks and companies will be a "next, next, finish" thing Ignoring adoption of/traction of/liquidity of/interest in BTC Drawing random TA like we have a triangle that will explode upwards and not break support (yeah you Kevin Cage "do your own research and if you don't come to the same conclusion as me you're clearly doing it wrong") Ripple sponsoring MGI to adopt ODL It went to 3.x$ with speculation alone so it will go way higher with usage Taking examples as endorsements from any company, report, ... Positive reports are true, negative reports are false. Custody is not necessary for crypto adoption (heard throughout 2017 and 2018) Adoption of R3 Corda being XRP centric It'll surely go to the moon any minute now, well today, this week, I meant this month, sorry year, ok really the coming decades. But don't take my word for it because I'm not a financial advisor. Just 99% sure. Codius would be huge Ignoring the extremely small community that's working on building something with XRP (and an even smaller community building something that would have reasonable market size) When crypto X uses argument Y it's true but if crypto Z uses argument Y it's false ................................. Most of these points have 2 sides (and can be extended to the broad cryptosphere). But usually only one side is represented. No need to counter these points: I've heard and read all about them and I don't want to recreate all the hundreds of threads that already have been discussing these. Yes there's also positive Ripple and XRP news. I'm not saying that I have the answers. Just keep in touch with both sides and be realistic. One thing I can certainly say is that crypto communities/markets have learned me a lot and I'll probably be able to use that knowledge in the future.
  40. 11 points
    I always thought Ripple needed to start small and go big. Wasn't that the main point they kept harping about previously? Why are people losing faith when they announce their intentions. It was a bad idea to go after the high value/low volume payments. They were taking on the incumbents that profit the most from high transaction fees so why would these incumbents give up their monopoly and a source of revenue? They might adopt RippleNet but they won't adopt ODL in the promise of lower fees because those fees tend to be paid by SMEs. What Ripple is essentially doing is going after a considerable chunk of the pie and that is the SME and remittances market. Whether that is Consumer 2 Business or B2B or B2C. Ripple are positioning themselves to be the gateway for SMEs to avoid bank transfers which have a higher fees and longer settlement times which can make a difference for quick turnovers in the supply chain. Here's some stuff worth reading in order to understand their plans: 1- SME Digital PaymentsNew opportunities to optimise The Paytech Revolution Series | 2018: https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/au/Documents/financial-services/deloitte-au-fs-sme-digital-payments-270218.pdf 2- Insights into PaymentsB2B Payments and Fintech Guide 2019: https://www.europeanpaymentscouncil.eu/sites/default/files/inline-files/B2B Payments and Fintech Guide 2019 - Innovations in the Way Businesses Transact.pdf 3- Why every scaling B2B business should avoid bank transfer: https://gocardless.com/guides/posts/b2b-business-avoid-bank-transfer/ 4- Global Payments Report 2019: Amid sustained growth, accelerating challenges demand bold actions: https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/mckinsey/industries/financial services/our insights/tracking the sources of robust payments growth mckinsey global payments map/global-payments-report-2019-amid-sustained-growth-vf.ashx 5- UK SME Data, Stats & Charts: https://www.merchantsavvy.co.uk/uk-sme-data-stats-charts/
  41. 10 points
    The best target to con, is the confident successful male holding higher social status. They are more prone than the rest (anyone can be conned) to believing that they cannot be conned. I'm not saying that BTC is a con, but I think pushing BTC as some sort of investment or financial product, is a half truth at best. It is not so unlike CMOs were in 2007... Yes all the math works out, and yes it makes a legitimate financial product... like a birthday cake made of baked cow dung, covered with a beautiful math icing. More likely, is that when someone is super specialized (finance), experienced, and higher level in a large org; it becomes easy to grow "theory bound" or "paradigm bound" or basically understand how the current market structures are set up and intertwined so well, that changing fundamental aspects of these industry architectures looks obviously impossible and only a fools errand to pursue. To avoid this trap, I try to look at "new" things and wonder how, "the more things change the more they stay the same" will remain true. In doing that I have observed that... XRPL is simply a "Clearing House". Market Makers/Liquidity Providers are "specialists". Banks will function as what Ripple originally called "gateways". Exchanges are like "Prime Brokers" (they also will function as Narrow Banks, which is a new banking business model not using Fractional Reserve methods) ODL is simply JIT Liquidity, and is the "X as a Service" which is denominated in units of XRP. (Welly S. event thanked me for reminding him of this for one of his quora answers, and amended the answer) XRP is simultaneously like a "Postage Stamp" used to pay for XRPL transactions The servers which host/run XRPL function as the "Exchange", which provides a venue for the Specialists and Brokers to operate. It helps to draw analogies from, the New to the "Old". At the end of the day, the "Old" was set up to accomplish certain core functions. As long as humans/markets exist those Core Functions will need to be accomplished, How they are accomplished is what will change with any paradigm shift. In the end, it is not that these Institutional Investors are stupid, it takes some time to digest that much of what you have learned through out your career, is depreciating as the new paradigm replaces the old paradigm. We are 20 years into the retirement of the Industrial age, and the rise of the Information age.
  42. 10 points
    Galgitron once made a similar post about Ripple having so many XRP that it would be able to boost the price in its favor to support Ripple's vision for XRP, but I made a similar argument in his post that Ripple would run afoul of serious regulations. So, the similar idea in this thread which works on the same principle as interesting as it sounds would likely break the same regulations put in there to safeguard the retail investors. The SECs top priorty is to protect investors, and they do that by going after the investees using existing regulations. Even if large whales and bots are trying to manipulate price, they won't have much affect even if they coordinate across platforms, because ODL locks in the price before the payment is even sent then executes it. Small payments are harder to affect because the liquidity is there to support such payments, and the exposure to volatility at both ends is a few senconds, and the entire payment takes like around a minute to complete or less. Ripple is trying to support the IoV so value can move around the IoV as digital information moves around the internet, which means payments will find the cheapest path in general. It's good to start small, and it's OK to break micro payments into tens or hundreds of smaller payments because the network fees are so low. This promotes organic growth of the network while allowing more liquidity providers to onboard to provides more paths for value to flow through with less resistance, the same way the actual internet works with sending data effeciently. What the IoV needs is lots of nodes for value to flow through, and then XRP pathfinder algorithm will find the path of least monetary resistance. That's why large payments don't work yet, the network bandwidth and a diverse number paths for those payments to flow through for particular corridors in likely not there yet. This is something that should grow organically, like the internet did. SWIFT can't touch micropayments and in the meantime Ripple keeps onboarding micropayment providers and SMEs, so organic growth supports larger and large payments naturally as the infrastructure of the IoV grows so it can eventually support the flow of larger and larger payments as easily as micropayments with the infrastucture and liquidity is sufficiently large. Banks are the last to get invovled because they generally have the largest payments, and very highly regulated, and most banks already are part of a system called SWIFT which has been around for a long time. If Ripple and ODL can prove itself for small payments and grow organically unchallenged by SWIFT and have this snowball effect of increasing payment sizes and participants, then it allows the IoV to support larger and larger payments without slippage or outside manipulation, then we'll see larger businesses like SME's taking a chance with this system, then the same approach is applied to SME's so growth continues organically until it is able to support small banks and then continue on to larger banks, most of which are in SWIFT. This is just an opinion, but it's nice to see in this thread all these different ideas being bounced around because we can discuss them at length and try to figure out the pros, cons, and feasibility of various approaches, trying to gain more insight into Ripple's plans.
  43. 10 points

    Epic Pennant on BTC Chart

    I cleaned up the chart. Well Bitcoin closed out the month above the down trend line for the second month in a row.
  44. 10 points

    Epic Pennant on BTC Chart

    Bitcoin's price has now spent 33 Days above the Long Term Down Trend Line on the daily chart and the 200 Day Exponential Moving Average is now crossing above the Down Trend Lines on the Monthly and Weekly charts. On the Weekly Chart Bitcoin's price has had 5 weekly closes above the Long Term Down Trend Line. The month closes out tomorrow and it looks like we will get our second monthly close above the Monthly Down Trend Line.
  45. 10 points
  46. 10 points

    Epic Pennant on BTC Chart

    Bitcoin has spent 21 Days above the Down Trend Line. Bollinger Bands have flattened out, will tighten today from the looks of things. Last time the bands were this tight was April 22 as noted on the chart. A big move is imminent. Nice to see a little green for XRP today.
  47. 10 points
  48. 10 points
  49. 10 points

    Epic Pennant on BTC Chart

    Bitcoin's price just logged it's 14th day above the Down trend line. As I mentioned yesterday the 50 Day EMA broke the down trend line. The 100 Day EMA and the 200 Day EMA are making their way to breaking the Trend line. this happened last in the fall of 2016 The charts below are from 2011-2016 and 2015-Now. Very similar. I know this is also a very similar post to yesterday's but, I don't know I guess I felt it bears repeating.
  50. 10 points
    Ripple Labs 2016: Let’s build a rocket ship that can cross the planet with lightning speed and virtually no cost to the customer: Fan boys: Rockets are the greatest tech the world has seen, they will liberate the poor but also make me rich! 2017: lets build a plane that can cross the planet with lightning speed and virtually no cost to the customer: Fan boys: Planes are the greatest tech the world has seen, they will liberate the poor but also make me rich! 2018: Lets build a Cargo ship that can cross.... Fan boys: Ships are the greatest tech the world has seen, they will liberate the poor but also make me rich! 2019: Let’s build a raft that can cross.... Fan boys: Rafts are the greatest tech the world has seen, they will liberate the poor but also make me rich! 2020: Lets build a bridge.... Fan boys: Bridges are the greatest tech the world has seen, they will liberate the poor but also make me rich! 2021: We need a life jacket.... Fan Boys: we love swimming!
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