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  1. 48 points

    Q1 2020 ODL report

    I wrote down much of what I've posted here before and tried to make a blog article out of it, but I'm not much good at html formatting and the graphs have come out terrible. I tried to put them into a coil article first, but that looked even worse and I gave up. (For curiosity, I wanted to see how well the web monetization stuff works using coil - no I don't need the $, but I'm curious to see if it works - and no - It doesn't for me at all anyway as I don't use twitter and the xrp community blog needs it). Anyway, here are my findings. https://xrpcommunity.blog/2020-q1-unofficial-xrp-odl-analysis/ I Opened up a new topic, so that Q&A could go here, but if this belongs in "press" or one of the other self promoting blog sections, mods please feel free to move it. TL;DR = quite a lot of ODL traffic. Things looking good for the future.
  2. 19 points
  3. 18 points
    LINE Pay can be charged by connecting ManeyTap https://translate.google.co.jp/translate?hl=ja&sl=ja&tl=en&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.sbigroup.co.jp%2Fnews%2Fpr%2F2020%2F0331_11923.html SBI Kitao CEO aims to use XRP PayPay has exceeded 25 million users https://about.paypay.ne.jp/pr/20200220/01/ LINE PAY registered users in Japan exceeded 30 million https://linecorp.com/en/pr/news/en/2017/1748 LINE is largest messenger app in Japan. There are about 83 million users. Recently, Yahoo! Japan and LINE have announced Management integration. I think money tap is the default route to become an XRP wallet. In Japan, I think that XRP payments that can be used by ordinary people are coming soon. I wrote PAYPAY at the following URL before.
  4. 18 points

    Introducing XRP Ledger v1.5.0

    XRP Ledger core server, rippled, v1.5.0 has been released! You can read the full v1.5.0 Release Announcement on the XRPL Blog. Also, we've published a whole bunch of changes to the documentation on xrpl.org, including: Known Amendments has the new protocol amendments listed and statuses updated: https://xrpl.org/known-amendments.html New fields in the response to the submit method: https://xrpl.org/submit.html#response-format server_info method updated with more recent examples and updated time fields: https://xrpl.org/server_info.html New manifest method: https://xrpl.org/manifest.html New validator_info method: https://xrpl.org/validator_info.html New fields in tx method providing for more robust Not Found errors: https://xrpl.org/tx.html#not-found-response Updated account_channels method to reflect bug fixes: https://xrpl.org/account_channels.html Instructions on how to enable the new gRPC API on your rippled server: https://xrpl.org/configure-grpc.html New warnings in API responses if your server is, or is about to be, amendment blocked: https://xrpl.org/response-formatting.html#api-warnings Request Formatting updated with better formatting and new API Versioning information: https://xrpl.org/request-formatting.html Other very minor cleanup and corrections Let me know if you have any questions or comments, and enjoy the new version!
  5. 18 points

    ODL Nations

    In general I'd say the answer is 'some'. The ODL tracker on https://utility-scan.com/#/dashboard looks at payments on the xrp ledger and compares them to trades on exchanges using the same amount. I think I read on this forum quite recently that they don't include it until they see 15 transaction that match the pattern. When those transactions are more than 24 hours old, they become part of the history, but don't affect new tests or numbers. However, there may be individuals who are doing ODL like activity - or random buy/sell pairs that appear to be matching that will appear as ODL activity on utilityscan.com - my own suspicion is that the numbers seen the other day including JPY, KRW etc were probably not ODL activity, but probably random trades that just happened to match the pattern. My own ODL tracker uses a different approach. I scan payments on ledger and do a very basic statistical check to see if the 'corridor' looks like ODL payments. By this, I mean are there regular payments from one account to another, using the same destination tag - are both accounts known as exchange accounts. Do the payments have sensible transaction sizes, do they fit a certain weekday/weekend pattern. When I find a corridor that 'looks' ODL-like, I then apply a filter to remove spurious corridors. for example, I see a great many ODL-like corridors that are probably arbitrage-bots between exchanges, casinos and other wallets that are 'unknown' - these I remove and what's left are then filtered down to 'candidates' and from there I keep only the ones that ripple have announced as trading partners, (bitso, bitstamp, coins.ph etc). When I plot the amounts on those corridors, I get numbers that match the ones shown on utility-scan.com - except for the JPY/KRW stuff - because I do not consider a corridor open until the trading pattern has stayed active for at least two weeks (I can increase or decrease that window). If a corridor is active during a period of time, and then goes inactive. I drop it from my list. This means that if I plot historical charts going back in time, traffic on these 'corridors' does not appear. In general, the amounts on these corridors is quite small by today's standards. If you look for example at this plot of weekly totals you will see activity USD/PHP and USD/MXN at low levels during the early part of last year - this was almost certainly testing of systems before they went properly 'live' later in the year. However, we have no proof of that and it might have just been normal traffic. My analysis relies on the assumption that if you were ripple/moneygram/other, it is unikely that you would mix ODL traffic with other money flows - when creating a new wallet is so easy and having different account tags on the exchange can be arranged. From an accounting point of view, it makes things much more straightforward to use certain wallets for certain operations and then summing/plotting/accounting becomes simpler. I should upgrade my scripts to keep 'old' corridors so that if ones come online, but then go dark again, then the summed traffic on those corridors is included. However, I am mostly interested in the main corridors and if old ones did exist and go dark, I would only care if they were big ones with a lot of traffic like the ones we see in the plot above. When I started tracking this back in 2018, I was having a hard time identifying 'corridors' because volumes were small, but now the signal stands out very clearly. And I ran my number (as mentioned in another thread the other day) against the numbers in the ripple q4 report and they %changes between quarters and other details (I forget what now) do match very closely what I see, so I am confident that my plots are basically correct. If I include or miss a handful of transactions, I'm not bothered - I'm interested in the overall trend and the main total. (I also see accounts that appear to be involved in rebalancing these corridors, but I am not including them in these plots). EDIT: One thing I forgot to mention is that the very early USD/PHP traffic last year was comparably speaking larger than the actual traffic taking place now. so it was probably setting up accounts as lots of large transfers that were 'too big' took place, however when real traffic started flowing, I kept the 'corridor' in my list. So, yes - there is almost certainly some spurious data.
  6. 16 points

    XUMM Launch by Wietse Wind tomorrow

    Here's the Link to the event ....
  7. 16 points

    Xpring Open Payments

    https://docs.openpayments.dev/overview I read/skimmed the docs, and it looks good to me. This should allow apps like Uber/Airbnb to integrate with ILP, and therefore with a single coding effort, all ILP Connectors and any ledgers that the ILP Connectors support. On the very last page there is a flow for 3rd Party Payment Initiations like a Google or Apple Pay. This Open Payments initiative by Xpring should reduce the risk level of every investment they make, because each application startup will not have reinvent the "ILP integration wheel". The only thing that came to mind was, the idea that with Open Payments, two Exchanges could operate a Nostro/Vostro relationship directly, going around the XRPL... but they can do that already anyhow. All in all, this effort should speed up adoption and growth of the IoV, at both the application layer, and I'd also think it would also make it easier operating at the ILP Connector level. Once again, the Ripple folks have demonstrated superb strategy in choosing their initiatives.
  8. 14 points

    Epic Pennant on BTC Chart

    Sure, it is a combination of several things: 1. BTC is in a long term ascending pattern, and is currently consolidating into an increasingly compressed trading range after the 2017 impulse to 20k . The end state of any price compression is a violent breakout with a particular party (bulls or bears) finally prevailing as the defenses on the opposite side crumble. 2. Rounded bottom formed in early 2019 as the market rejected 3k btc is a good sign. Round bottoms on pullback waves are bullish imo as they signal mounting buying pressure that usually produces trend continuation; in this instance that means a continuation of the pattern formed by the original impulse wave to 20k. 3. Generally speaking, price = demand / supply. BTC's new supply is about to be cut in half come May. The very force that has served to produce fundamental BTC price support (unscientifically: initial lower trend line) is going to begin doubling in slope come May. 4. Increased price support slope is then going to slowly push the price upwards, which will create a violent breakout of the LT triangle, which will then attract new investor attention and thus increased demand, and the entire thing is going to snowball to 150-300k over the following months. Since all cryptos are fundamentally interconnected by virtue of being the same asset class, skyrocketing BTC will pull alts along for the ride (market contagion, but of the good kind) and cause them to punch through their own respective resistances and onto new ATHs. That's what I'm putting my money on anyway.
  9. 14 points
    In its motion to dismiss the lawsuit, Ripple argued that a law protected them from being sued since XRP had been offered to the public more than three years before the lawsuit was filed. (before August 5, 2016) The judge agreed that this law would protect Ripple, but based on the limited evidence before her, she ruled that Ripple didn’t offer XRP to the public before August 5, 2016. In a motion to dismiss, the judge only considers what the plaintiffs have alleged, and treats everything they said as true. But her opinion could change once all the facts are presented. Indeed, in her ruling on Ripple’s motion to dismiss, she wrote: "The court cautions that, once the parties have developed a factual record, it may revisit its determination on whether [Ripple] made their first bona fide XRP offer to the public before or after August 5, 2016." (Page 19, Line 4) XRP was trading on public exchanges long before 2016, so it seems inevitable that she will eventually throw out the case.
  10. 14 points
    Extremely interesting development right here. This may not hold in the near future, but the trend is our friend, and I expect the gap to widen as we go further out into the future https://coinmarketcap.com/exchanges/bitstamp/
  11. 13 points
    Let's not forget about Xpring's Logos acquisition last year. David Schwartz mentioned (26:37 – 28:18) at the 2018 UNCHAIN Convention that they had the overall framework for Codius built but did not have the engineering resources to fully execute Codius within Ripple and would seek to do so via Xpring. David also alluded, via a Twitter comment, to the fact that the Logos team would be building DeFi products and applications on top of the XRPL and Codius. I've commented in previous posts that for the longest time, I use to think that it was a poor strategic business move for Ripple to have placed their smart contracts program (Codius) on the back burner, yielding the space almost entirely to Ethereum and others to build upon. However, in retrospect, it was probably one of the best business decisions they could have made at the time. Stefan Thomas (Ripple's ex-CTO) said in Quora Q&A session: “I worked on Ripple’s smart contract system Codius back in 2013–2015. Back then, our conclusion was that a viable smart contracts ecosystem requires a standard for payments first. Contracts need to be reviewed to be trusted and that’s expensive if you need a new contract for each type of asset because every ledger has a different protocol/API. Thus, Interledger was born.” With that being said, we now have positive confirmation (09:16 mark) that there will be an Interledger Foundation based in California. I think this is very good news for ILP as obtaining the non-profit status in California and soon the IRS 501(c)(3) Tax Exempt Status. Obtaining this non-profit status will help to streamline the development of a streamline legal framework to host registries for all of ILP’s reference and technical documentation/specs/tutorial etc. It goes to show you just how much time and energy went into Ripple's development/planning process at the company's inception in knowing what needed to be done 1st, 2nd, and 3rd to achieve their goal of becoming this facilitator of the Internet-of-Value (IoV). Ripple realized early on that while blockchain allowed for the creation of many varied platforms (i.e. XRPL, Bitcoin, Ethereum) these platforms were no better at communicating with each other than traditional legacy banking networks and payment channels hence the creation of the Interledger Protocol. IMHO, very few blockchain/fintech companies have built the ecosystem more than Ripple with regards to increasing interoperability among platforms in the crypto space. This is why the adoption of the Interledger Protocol (ILP) by some of major DLT consortiums (i.e. Hyperledger Quilt, R3, etc.) as the “payments router" of the Internet as well as the interoperability layer for is so transformational. ILP not only connects all blockchain ledgers together, but it simultaneously creates competition among the different blockchain platforms/cryptocurrencies so that each will have to stand on their own code/blockchain technology. This altruistic act underscores the principled character of the leadership behind Ripple and their dedication to seeing the growth and evolution of the Internet-of-Value (IoV). Ripple could have patented ILP’s technology, however, they knew that the influence of the Internet came from the fact that it served as a gateway to connect everyone. The Internet can accomplish this because it is not a single network or system but a network of networks with information being sent across multiple platforms using open-source proprieties. This allows communication across the Internet to be seamless irrespective of what provider people are associated with. Ripple understood the same way the open-source TCP/IP protocol gave rise to the greatest economic stimulus/engine the world has ever known in the Internet, the same principles needed to be applied to ILP in order to see their vision for the IoV to come to fruition. The leadership at Ripple understood that ILP was the “rising tide to lift all boats” not just XRP. Stefan Thomas (Ripple’s former CTO) talks @ 46:58 about how XRP was "designed to be used as the settlement asset on ILP" with "payment channels built in a certain way that is incredibly efficient" despite the presence of other cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, Ether and Lumens. Also, the other stroke of genius by the Ripple team is how they gifted ILP as an open-sourced piece of technology to the W3C to oversee the development of ILP so that it remains a neutral platform for anyone to us. Basically, make ILP the worldwide standard (via W3C) allowing all currencies/blockchain tech to compete openly and freely, but all the while knowing that XRP will have the upper hand. Ripple's Art-of-War strategy of empowering its rivals/competition while simultaneously using them to further its Internet-of-Value (IoV) agenda is brilliant! Stefan Thomas went on to say in that same Q/A (3rd question down): "Finally, on the Interledger front we are moving on from working on the protocol and are starting to look at early use cases. We’ll be challenging a lot of use cases for distributed protocols that are currently using custom tokens with much simpler solutions that use ILP/XRP instead. (Think custom communications protocols that are for one purpose only being disrupted by the Internet.)" I think this quote pretty much encapsulates the current state of affairs with the advent/proposal of a collateralized stable coin feature that would also allow peg assets on the XRPL to some external value with liquidity guaranteed by the ledger mechanics itself (02:30 - 02:50). I whole-heartedly agree with you on this point. This is an area where Ripple is light-years ahead of any other blockchain company/platform. Because these smart contract platforms will operate globally, moving data/value within these systems in a lawfully obligatory way requires that there are defined standards. Utilizing a similar governance scheme, analogous to the (RippleNet Committee), to seamlessly on-board Banks/FIs from vastly different geographic and regulatory environments onto RippleNet, I can easily see Ripple applying a similar strategy for developing/integrating a smart contract legal framework layer (i.e. Codius) into RippleNet. -Sorry for the long post-
  12. 13 points
    B+W is BTC. Colour is the Dow. Can clearly see here how significant losses in the Dow translated into significant losses in BTCUSD. At one point there was a couple of days' lag. This is likely due to margin calls in the Dow creating a liquidity drawdown from BTCUSD. This may continue in the absence of a massive stimulus package being announced. People may wrongly be attributing the idea of 'crisis hedge' to BTC. In reality, BTC may be even more like gold than at first thought (a hedge against inflation). This would mean a big reversal if big stimulus is announced... and it could happen whether or not stocks rebound. Thought it might be of interest to some here.
  13. 13 points

    The fuse has been lit.

    It is my impression that the people who come on here constantly posting negative comments are those who invested more than they could reasonably afford and expected way more than they reasonably should have. They are now sitting on a very painful investment and they are angry. They don't want to feel hope, because that makes the sense of loss even more painful. So, they adopt an attitude for irrevocable cynicism and lash out at anyone who suggests that there may be hope, because this is too painful for them to allow in. I think its a way of trying to regain "control" over their investment. In a way, I understand and empathize, but I do not appreciate the personal attacks and general nastiness that results. I'm all for rational discourse on this forum and welcome reasoned opinions from every angle, but most of what gets posted these days are personal insults and baseless proclamations of impending doom. Hopefully, we can move through this phase and get back to a point where this forum is a source of constant engagement and a real resource for new and old investors alike.
  14. 12 points
  15. 12 points
    https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2020/03/19/sp031920-deputy-managing-director-tao-zhangs-keynote-address-on-central-bank-digital-currency It is a Pro/Con list, some highlights... Overall I think this it is interesting to see how the CBs are approaching this. Apparently Fbook's Libra and the Stablecoins, have raised some eyebrows. I still think CBDC should be interest bearing, for a number of reasons, but I can also see the argument for sCBDC and having true CBDC not be interest bearing. One good thing about CBDC IMHO is that with digital payments that are nearly instant within a domestic economy, RippleNet & XRPL's jobs get a lot easier and the whole idea of an IoV begins to looks like it has reached the age where it has master crawling, and is starting to learn to stand on it's own two feet. Only a few years ago, CBDC was considered "ridiculous". Here is an older thread where CBDC was discussed in some detail. Here is another one, and Here is one more (with a 6 min video where I explain the market dynamics of an interest bearing CBDC)
  16. 11 points
    He brings almost two decades of leadership experience in the banking and finance sectors to the global payments firm, which sees Asia Pacific as an increasingly important market. Ripple has appointed Kelvin Lee as its head of Southeast Asia operations, a role in which he will oversee the firm's expansion in the region, and spearhead efforts to drive the growth of its customer base, the firm announced in a statement on Wednesday. Lee previously held senior executive positions at companies including Mastercard, Visa, and FIS. His leadership experience spans Asia Pacific, Europe, Middle East, and Africa, in sectors like financial payments, fraud and risk management, data solutions and online mobile banking solutions. «We want to enable money to flow across borders as quickly as data does, by empowering players in the remittance and money transfer market,» Lee said about the appointment and the firm's growth plans. Growth Opportunity Ripple operates a blockchain-powered real-time gross settlement system, currency exchange and remittance network. In an interview with finews.asia in November 2019, its senior vice president of global operations, Eric van Miltenburg, said the firm is committed to investing in Singapore and the region, and that the advent and growth of digital banking in the region is an opportunity for Ripple to grow. Among the firm's customers in the region are Siam Commercial Bank in Thailand, CIMB in Malaysia, and Nium, formerly known as InstaReM, in Singapore Source: https://www.finews.asia/finance/31262-senior-exec-to-lead-ripple-xrp-ripplenet-regional-expansion-kelvin-lee -------- If I check the website of Ripple SE-Asia and/or Twitter feeds I can't find much info so I give it a place here. Looked interesting and a warm welcome is offered by the community I hope? I couldn't find Kevin Lee on Twitter but found Eric van Miltenburg. No to little communications about the appointment or anything serious. Are these appointments kept silent for some reason ?
  17. 11 points

    Epic Pennant on BTC Chart

    In 2008, gold and silver bottomed a couple of months into the crash (until Oct 2008, whereas the crash itself continued until Feb 2009 or so). We might anticipate something similar happening this time. And if BTC is similarly going to work as a safe haven - which does make a lot of sense - it may also bottom much sooner than the stock markets. But really, the above doesn't help because we don't know whether this crash is going to play out more like 2008, or more like (eek) 1929. A realistic-moderate scenario (i.e. 2008 style) for the S&P or the Dow etc is a 50% decline over the next several months. If the crash continues in several waves and bottoms in August, we might expect a bottom for crypto quite soon. If not already, then within a month or so. But... the macro economic picture is far, far, far worse than 2008. There is much more debt in the system. So I am thinking this could easily turn into something more akin to 1929. Coronavirus is about the cruellest way this bubble could pop due to supply chain disruption, mass quarantines and social reconditioning. If it's going to play out like 1929, then a realistic worst-case would be something like an 80% drop in stocks over the next two-three years. The delay in producing a vaccine and the likelihood of waves of mass infections and quarantines gives some credence to this idea. If this happens, then we may see several phases of liquidity drawdowns in crypto and gold/silver as well. People suckered back in too early may see a second or third wave of margin calls. There is absolutely zero certainty here. Anyone pronouncing "the bottom is in for crypto" is being naive. There are just so many variables now to consider. I'm advising anyone at this point to be extremely careful. Keep a reasonable amount in cash (ideally not in your bank!). This whole debacle could take years to play out - not merely days, weeks or months. By all means take a punt if you think the bottom is close, but keep your sanity.
  18. 11 points
    FYI: or skip if it is TLDR greetz RS Goldman Sachs hosted an Investee call where 1,500 companies dialed in. The key economic takeaways were: 50% of Americans will contract the virus (150m people) as it's very communicable. This is on a par with the common cold (Rhinovirus) of which there are about 200 strains and which the majority of Americans will get 2-4 per year. 70% of Germany will contract it (58M people). This is the next most relevant industrial economy to be effected. Peak-virus is expected over the next eight weeks, declining thereafter. The virus appears to be concentrated in a band between 30-50 degrees north latitude, meaning that like the common cold and flu, it prefers cold weather. The coming summer in the northern hemisphere should help. This is to say that the virus is likely seasonal. Of those impacted 80% will be early-stage, 15% mid-stage and 5% critical-stage. Early-stage symptoms are like the common cold and mid-stage symptoms are like the flu; these are stay at home for two weeks and rest. 5% will be critical and highly weighted towards the elderly. Mortality rate on average of up to 2%, heavily weight towards the elderly and immunocompromised; meaning up to 3m people (150m*.02). In the US about 3m/yr die mostly due to old age and disease, those two being highly correlated (as a percent very few from accidents). There will be significant overlap, so this does not mean 3m new deaths from the virus, it means elderly people dying sooner due to respiratory issues. This may however stress the healthcare system. There is a debate as to how to address the virus pre-vaccine. The US is tending towards quarantine. The UK is tending towards allowing it to spread so that the population can develop a natural immunity. Quarantine is likely to be ineffective and result in significant economic damage but will slow the rate of transmission giving the healthcare system more time to deal with the case load. China’s economy has been largely impacted which has affected raw materials and the global supply chain. It may take up to six months for it to recover. Global GDP growth rate will be the lowest in 30 years at around 2%. S&P 500 will see a negative growth rate of -15% to -20% for 2020 overall. There will be economic damage from the virus itself, but the real damage is driven mostly by market psychology. Viruses have been with us forever. Stock markets should fully recover in the 2nd half of the year. In the past week there has been a conflating of the impact of the virus with the developing oil price war between KSA and Russia. While reduced energy prices are generally good for industrial economies, the US is now a large energy exporter, so there has been a negative impact on the valuation of the domestic energy sector. This will continue for some time as the Russians are attempting to economically squeeze the American shale producers and the Saudi’s are caught in the middle and do not want to further cede market share to Russia or the US. Technically the market generally has been looking for a reason to reset after the longest bull market in history. There is NO systemic risk. No one is even talking about that. Governments are intervening in the markets to stabilize them, and the private banking sector is very well capitalized. It feels more like 9/11 than it does like 2008.
  19. 11 points

    MoneyGram down -20% and falling hard

    Sorry, but do you live under a rock?
  20. 11 points

    The fuse has been lit.

    I am expecting substantial upward momentum in the near term (days to weeks). The indicators used/fundamentals research will not be shared on this side of the forum. I have no desire to share my personal opinions and analysis with those who offer nothing more than negativity & snide personal attacks. Some of the messages were truly vulgar (Thank you mods for removing them). I would respectfully suggest to some of the people that are decidedly bearish to take breath, zoom out a bit and look at the macro. There are some great minds in this forum that provide incredible technical & fundamentals insight. I will say this; IMO there is a major Fiat currency devaluation incoming. Glean from that what you will. NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
  21. 11 points

    The fuse has been lit.

    There are many haters on this thread with zero contributions to this entire forum. I find it strange they all need to claim PhiGuy is wrong rather than start their own thread. This section of the forum is literally called “trading and speculation” word to the haters...start your own threads
  22. 10 points

    Dan Bilzerian + Ripple/XRP

    I hope you all are having a great weekend there. A buddy of mine was hanging on his phone here at my house looking at Dan Bilzerians Instagram story. Dan was posting a video of his computer screen while he was playing online poker and we noticed a interesting logo on the bottom right of his screen....XRP Ledger Wallet icon. Kinda interesting for an otherwise boring weekend. For those of you who don't know who Dan Bilzerian, he’s.....just google him, it will be more fun that way, I promise you.
  23. 10 points
    It has been some time since we had some news https://ripple.com/ripple-press/deemoney-partners-with-ripple-to-empower-faster-and-cheaper-cross-border-money-transfers/
  24. 10 points

    ODL Nations

    Yes it would. But as they said around the time we were all analysing their sales - it's still good for independent researchers to check the figures - to keep them honest. When I first plotted their sales and correlated them to exchange volume, I got a figure of around 3% of daily volume being sold - which shocked me slightly as being so high. (for ref - posts (Nov 2018), (2018 Q4), (2019 Q1/Q2)) Later I started using different exchange volume data and their % dropped proportionally due to the higher volume numbers I was using, but they subsequently decided that their original exchange volume was probably contaminated by wash trading and switched to using a lower estimate (similar to the one I had been using originally) and dropped their sales correspondingly. I like to think that those of us tracking these things made a difference and helped to persuade ripple to reduce sales. I'm not sure that tracking ODL activity can impact anything much, but I'm sure that they will eventually release data of ODL amounts, corridors etc etc. Probably sooner rather than later - but - only if ODL turns out to save money for organisations like MGI. Once that has been established (and we still don't know if that's the case), they will no doubt want to tell everyone about it, but we're still very early in the game. One thing I think I'm seeing is that volatility does hurt ODL traffic, but I haven't really investigated this properly and will have to look into it further. I ought to have enough data now. The problem is that if ripple are subsidising MGI/FlashFX/others then it is much harder to be certain as traffic might continue even when loss making is occurring. I might need to look at trade data such as the stuff that @JASCoderhas been plotting to really investigate properly, but I don't have enough time to devote to this right now. My suspicion is that the ODL ripplenet interface includes a 'transfer when best' type option so that you can request a payment be made, but not immediately, so that if the rates fluctuate and are better than X or Y then the payment goes through, but if not, it goes via normal channels when some time limit elapses. This would explain spikes and dips in ODL traffic at certain times (similar to how an arbitrage bot works). Anyway. I'm sure we'll see figure from ripple soon. maybe the 2020 Q1 report will have more info. I'm hoping more channels open up soon, maybe the JPY/KRW stuff that utilityscan saw was the start of new corridor testing. fingers crossed - if they are new corridors, then my scripts will pick them up and they will be included in my plots and sums. (and yes - before anyone asks - I'm certain that increased ODL traffic will drive up price - we will just need a lot of it - and fewer economic collapses like the one happening right now).
  25. 10 points

    The fuse has been lit.

    When he posts his speculative predictions publicly you whine about it, when he does not post them you whine again. It seems a total waste of your time to me. Just ignore him and your problem is solved! And also if you think you are "saving" anyone you also waste your time. If somebody bases his investment decisions on the posts (or PMs) of an anonymous dude in a speculative forum with an antelope (or whatever that animal is) eating popcorn as an avatar, he is so stupid that does not deserve to be "saved" in the first place .
  26. 10 points

    The fuse has been lit.

    We invested in some magic internet money, and with that comes a magic internet community.
  27. 10 points

    The fuse has been lit.

    The emotions displayed here reinforce the notion of why technical analysis is performed. Mobs of anger, denial, depression seem to be taking over. If a significant price rise does occur again, these will be the same people to mismanage their exit strategies by getting too emotional, then will find someone to blame for it. There are tons of people making predictions out there, and it is up to each person to do their own research and take what they want out of a prediction, if anything at all. If there is something I don’t like, I tend to move on from it, except for eating catfood because it is the only thing I can afford to eat right now.
  28. 9 points

    Will crypto rebound?

    In my opinion, crypto in general will probably see a safe haven bid. Particularly as the legacy financial system falls apart quite thoroughly over coming weeks and years. Hedges in this respect have historically been the dollar, bonds and gold/silver. Let's take a look at the dollar (six month DXY chart): As we can see, the USD has been pumping quite a bit. Precious metals have relatively underperformed and will probably keep underperforming until the USD begins to look top-ish. This could be unfolding right now... note the correction in USD above which is probably worth keeping an eye on. A parallel for the USD may be BTC's blow-off top in 2017. As it started to look bloated, people started speculating more in other coins. Once BTC began plummeting in earnest, everyone rushed to the exits - and this is when we saw XRP launch like a rocket. Similarly, I expect gold and silver to start showing more strength as the USD begins: a) showing weakness; or b) starts looking like a bubble. A major crisis like this has never happened before in BTC's lifetime, so one cannot be absolutely certain that BTC will perform well. However, as an "escape route" from fiat currency and from the legacy financial system, it does have a sound argument. As digital gold, it is arguably better than real gold: it is more portable and more divisible, and importantly - it bears no counter-party risk. In 1971 Nixon confiscated gold. It's hard to see that happening with Bitcoin unless they shut down the internet. Whilst XRP does not have the same characteristics as BTC, if the rush into BTC happens - as seems likely to me - then the wider crypto market will probably receive some speculative overflow bids. Personally, I've lightened up on XRP (I already owned a fair amount) in order to buy more gold and silver. I think there's a pretty good chance that silver in particular will outperform crypto. I've also lightened up on bank deposits as I don't trust the banks to remain solvent either ($10trn global reserves, $300trn+ global debt, $1.2qdrn in derivatives). I'm telling everyone at the moment to at least consider the risks of bank defaults. Better safe than sorry. I expect more deflation to come in the short to medium term, and the corresponding scramble for cash to affect all asset classes including safe havens. As investors in crypto, what we're looking for is the later inflationary effects - or the threat of inflation - to kick in. Good luck all.
  29. 9 points
    Howdy thar Xrpiet - thanks for your interest in my ODL research ! You can see from the two charts below (black is price/volume action at Bitstamp over the last few hours, and the blue is the raw xrp hourly sells volume at Bitso), you can clearly see at hour 15 a flurry of heavy buying at Bitstamp, and corresponding selling action at Bitso. Viewing the Bitstamp pricing you see a small upwards bump as well, and interestingly, at Bitso, there was no perceptible pricing impact. Over the last many "crisis weeks" I've continued to monitor this ODL corridor, and it's been heartening to note that the steady usage of ODL continues to strengthen. JFYI, I continue developing more "scanner" tools, in particular for slippage metrics. But I ran into a frustrating discovery, in that the FX rates play more of a significant impact on the slippage pricing than I'd realized. I'm pursuing better sources for more a granular and accurate API source (IG is really good, but they won't give me access to their APIs because I'm not in the UK. They are working on providing that for USA "soon" I'm told). Oh, and the Visa-dev's solution want $3000 to set me up. :-/ I also pursued adding the coins.ph order book to my charts, but they won't give me an API key until I have renewed by passport (a CB requirement). Sigh.
  30. 9 points
  31. 9 points

    World Community Grid

    What originally got me interested in Ripple was the World Community Grid "Program", at the time I had been dabbling in btc mining and found the concept of donating my excess computing power to something more useful much more interesting, especially with the added xrp incentive. With Ripple still sitting on billions of XRP and the world facing a pandemic it would be great to see a refresh of this program if there was a suitable program to participate in (WCG most recent announcement is they have not yet found any projects). For those that were not around back in 2013: https://ripple.com/insights/world-community-grid-welcomes-ripple-labs-as-a-partner/
  32. 9 points
    Dear quan, Absolutely, that’s a great idea! I’ll make that public right away. We appreciate you letting us know about this. Hope you have a wonderful Wednesday and always remember to “Keep On Ripplin’!” TM. Yours truly, Matt Ripple
  33. 9 points

    The fuse has been lit.

  34. 9 points

    Charting the course of XRP

    Kind of a boring week for crypto, especially when you consider the massive volatility in equities and bonds this week. Some observations from the daily XRPUSD chart: 1) We remain above the long term support line (blue) having successfully tested it but only briefly falling below (depending on how you draw it). 2) We have an ascending support line that we have stayed above during the run from $0.17 (purple). 3) We are just above oversold on the RSI. 4) We are trending to cross bullish on the MACD in the next few days. All in all, right now, I'd say that we remain in an intermediate bullish trend since $0.17. If I had to guess the immediate trajectory of XRP over the next week, the technicals seem to indicate we're due for upward price movement. It wouldn't surprise me to see us testing $0.27-$0.28 in the next week or so. If this recent drop down to $0.22 holds, then we have printed a higher low. I won't get excited until I see a higher high as well (>$0.347).
  35. 9 points

    The fuse has been lit.

    Is this where I sign up for investment advice from people I don't know, who draw lines I don't understand, on charts I can't make any sense of?
  36. 9 points
    Hosting in Amazon or Google clouds is not the same as "partnering with" Amazon or Google. Clickbait.
  37. 8 points
    From what Tiny (who's gone now?!!) had shared with me in past exchanges, he said from his own research he found that the trade actions we see occurring at the ODL corridor endpoints are not driven directly by customer transfers, but the paid in fiat submissions are pooled and metered by Ripple's processes to be buy/transfer/sell payloads, handled in a roughly constant flow over a 24 hour period; this is to prevent out-running the arbitrage re-balancing dynamics between the endpoints and realize excessive friction we assume. Our best guess is that Ripple is maintaining their own fiat capital pools at the pay-out endpoints, which acts as a buffer - much like an electric capacitor does. The hourly volume metrics we see seem to bear this out - as you certainly would not expect remittance customers to maintain a 24 hour period of same sized transfers on weekdays. I hope I'm making sense. You can glean more details on this from our past posts here in this thread IIRC (tho his name will now show as "Guest"). Cheers.
  38. 8 points
    I haven't spent much time on the forums lately as work has picked up and I'm researching more conventional old fashioned investments to compliment my current holdings. If you have not seen David Schwartz' video on creating collateralized stable coins or other assets on the XRP ledger, watching this in light of what I said before should serve as a solid sell on the concept of what sort of redemption powers XRP will be capable of in the future. Taking into account the debacle of Nexo liquidations on March 12, 2020, there are a number of significant lessons and mile markers worth paying attention to on the road to decentralized finance and the derivative token economy. Custody held by Bitgo seems to be reliable enough for enterprise class banking institutions but transparency for retail customers relying on the system is spotty at best. But this is less of an issue than other issues that are more pressing. Ethereum is not the right platform for DeFi under the present performance constraints. There are many complaints across the board of individuals getting notification regarding their LTV dipping below the 83% threshold (or whatever it is depending on your asset portfolio), depositing funds reliant on the ethereum blockchain, and congestion on the blockchain preventing their deposit transactions from being committed before their funds were liquidated. The main problem here seems to be that companies serving their best interest are incentivized to move liquidation orders ahead of deposits when they are simultaneously generating interest revenue for stablecoin depositors. It is true that they make money when they service loans, however the complication of also being accountible to depositers directly - really, the effect of having a more honest banking system - is that you have less float to recover from margins if you are dedicated to maintaining the integrity of all accounts hosted on the platform. The consequences of having a system that protects depositors is less wiggle room for borrowers - but I believe this is as it should be - why should depositors own the lion's share of the risk (as happens now in conventional banking, which based on the global bailout numbers favors leverage and risk taking). We got into this mess because there is a LOT of leveraged money propping up the prices of the stock markets and as a result there are no real safe havens where bad money has not already chased out the good (Gresham's Law) and people who are afraid of the risks being levied on the current economic systems take the earliest flight to cash. I ran into this issue myself, when I first tried sending ERC-20 Tether to cover collateral and found it took too long. That being said, there is a solid business case for leveraging assets yielding confidently asymmetric returns. As someone who persistently leveraged at 10-15% peaks and reinvested at 20% drops I was doing quite well with my holdings, however those gains did disappear on Mar 12. I take full responsibility for those losses, of course. A safer strategy on leverage would be to pull on strong runs and do a calculated reinvestment that took into account what the worst case price scenario would be - the bottom out - and deposit enough stablecoin to keep your account above the liquidation threshold with regard to your token holdings. I gave this example on reddit. Say you have a $1000 loan balance and your threshold is $800. Under normal credit line limits say you have your balance in XRP and you normally have assets valued at around $4000. If you do not have stablecoins in your account and the price goes as it did - from $0.36 to $0.105 - at least if your reinvested 100% of your loan back into collateral you would most likely not get completely wiped out by the oracle - assuming you have a v-shaped price recovery on the minute. If it was sustained, the odds of you getting cleared out beforehand are pretty high. At the very least, if you took into account the value of your tokens at your own personal worst case scenario pricing and then made up the difference between that total and the liquidation threshold LTV amount you would be buying yourself a little bit of insurance during flash crashes. This would have the same effect to paying down the loan on that account, but with the advantages being that you could release that capital as the values went higher - but those coins are all locked down until the market recovers. You could also pay down the loan if you felt that made more sense, since the interest you are paying on the amount is far higher than what you gain through having the stablecoins on deposit - it really depends on how protracted the price crash is expected to be. These are all up to you. But my point here is that ethereum is too prone to congestion to provide efficient and reliable DeFi services. I'd like to see a stablecoin issued on the XRPL if for no other reason than speed and reliability. It will serve a significant purpose in the future in terms of providing rapid collateral protection applications as digital lending and finance takes off. Combined with enterprise-grade secure custody (Polysign, I'm looking in your direction) this is going to be a knockout win for DeFi. Until the congestion issues of decentralized finance of digital assets are resolved in times of crisis, the public is right to be very skeptical of the safety and forthrightness of DeFi. If XRPL is pushed to the limits and a proper DeFi platform is developed that can successfully leverage the speed and clarity of XRP it will likely earn people's trust and become a massive use case for the token. The funny thing is that many people are stating that Nexo is a scam because they were not given the amount of float they normally expect from financial outfits that have more risk tolerance and are willing to put savers at risk in order to cater to leveraged (and sometimes far overleveraged) traders. It is hard for many to swallow the bad financial habits the world has grown accustomed to. If the fixed-income classes were not so old and ignored there would be a serious revolt. They are the ones being given the shaft by all of this clown world finance. I don't know if crypto is immune - I don't believe it is. I've been shouted down by many young traders who insisted bitcoin was isolated and different, we could not use convention market movements to understand bitcoin - it was a 'new market' and old the old rules don't apply. Down with banks (flip sign) welcome institutional money. Independent markets (flips sign) where's our ETF and derivatives. There is a lot of borrowed money feeding the cryptocurrency markets now. That is only going to get crazier and crazier as hyperinflation hits and people understand that some finite asset networks have irreplaceable value added services attached. It is easier to fork bitcoin than it is to duplicate the ripplenet partner network. It remains to be seen how loyal bitcoin users will be to the bitcoin payment network as DeFi rolls out - I think this could realy push PoW to its breaking point and open up the space to faster assets with less congestion risks during times of high transaction volume. I've said it in other places, don't sell too early - the value of your millions may expire quicker than you expect - while assets, particularly deflationary assets, are where the real value will last longer.
  39. 8 points

    Charting the course of XRP

    I find it surprising that people think they know the absolute top price of a utility coin that has never yet achieved even a fraction of its potential. It’s completely uncharted territory for any crypto, but some folk seem to be absolutely sure they know it’s limits. I’ve got no idea why they think they can be sure of the limit when it’s like has never been seen in the world before. And may not for some years more. It may take some years yet before we find out what a utility coin carrying some significant percentage of world commerce is going to be worth. I think anyone that is already sure of its limits has no basis for that belief.
  40. 8 points

    Charting the course of XRP

    wow baka, your personality has changed from keep asking "confirmation questions due to low confidence", to spewing "pessimistic facts/opinion with confidence".
  41. 8 points
    Everything that he said. There indeed has to be a buyer for every seller. If not, the price is zero, and you couldn't sell. I don't understand why that's hard to fathom. The price 3 years ago was between .03 and .05, and before that it was under a .01. That is most certainly price appreciation. Sure, price action hasn't been what we've hoped for the last several years, but it's what it's. Progress and fundamentals continue to improve, price will find support at some point. If you disagree with that, you should sell your holdings.
  42. 8 points

    Next big drop coming?

    Hard to forecast but my gut feeling tells me that we haven‘t seen the bottom yet.
  43. 8 points
    I have always thought that there must come a time when the Ripple and Ripple Exec XRP ownership issue comes into play. Addressing the issue has been pushed aside and delayed by the XRP price going down and down, but when it begins to rise again this will be an issue again. I feel sure the Ripple are aware of the impossibility of XRP being adopted as the standard cross border DA at the same time as their being allowed to hold over 50% of the stock. No democracy, or dictatorship, can allow a private company to have that power over their economy. I expect there are plans in the background about how to hand over the XRP to a neutral third party governance (destroying them would be absolute folly). I expect it may be part of a deal between SEC and Ripple for regulation clarity? Crypto Eri has posted a really interesting video today about how the covid-19 is causing a rapid breakdown of the old paradigms (correspondence banking with vostro nostro accounts), and how essential XRP will be for trading CBDCs across borders. I agree with her and agree with her calling it a perfect storm that XRP can solve.
  44. 8 points

    ODL Nations

    The is the first I've seen JPY and KRW.
  45. 8 points

    OECD Advisory Board

    " Blockchain and distributed ledger technology Blockchain and its underlying distributed ledger technology have the potential to fundamentally transform a wide range of industries and markets. The Global Blockchain Policy Centre is exploring the benefits and risks of blockchain for economies and societies, beginning to identify good policy and regulatory approaches, and investigating uses in specific policy areas." Published 3 mars 2020 : ( link with full list of members involved : https://www.oecd.org/daf/blockchain/OECD-Blockchain-Expert-Policy-Advisory-Board-List-of-Participants.pdf )
  46. 8 points

    Charting the course of XRP

    It's just an upgrade of my existing plots. I wanted to improve the display to show the relative strength of each corridor. It went from this to this and I added other resampling options to give weekly/quarterly/etc sums. I wanted to see if the numbers in the Q4 report matched the figures I get (they do). The final bar in the above plot is today starting at 00:00::00 UTC so it is a small bar as it's only 7am where I am. The weekly plot is going to be fine. we still have friday (usually good) + sat/sun (not good) to add and it looks like this, so this would be the 4th largest week so far - but I suspect we'll get close to #1 by sunday. I suspect that the global shutdown will reduce the amount of money being sent around - so I initially thought ODL will fall - but as only a small % of total traffic is using ODL, we might not see too big an impact. (I plot this data just for my for my own education as I am still waiting for the point where my model of ODL volume / xrp price to kick in).
  47. 8 points

    Dear Ripple, please make this fact public

    Why don't you go chase the dingo that ate both your xrp and half of your brain?
  48. 8 points
    Different corridors have different patterns of transmission.
  49. 8 points
    Who cares what the price of XRP is doing? On previous occasions ODL has slumped with the price, today it has gone stratospheric. ODL is just amazing today. Mondays are usually the worst weekday, with a slow lift of after Sunday, today it is pushing higher and higher. This is what my money is invested in, not the unregulated Crypto gambling houses with their greed and whales manipulation. We have to be free of this fake market driven by its obsession with BTC.
  50. 8 points

    The fuse has been lit.

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