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Showing content with the highest reputation on 05/27/2019 in all areas

  1. 48 points
    The ECB (European Central Bank) released an annual report on Target2, the RTGS system for all European banks where they settle all payments in central bank money. The ECB published it about two hours ago and it can be found here: https://t.co/GLJNtzrR19 The timeline for banks with all the milestones can be found here; https://t.co/tBB9WoDswF The big bang approach requires that all national central banks and their communities are prepared to migrate on time. All banks in Europe, will all be, at the same time, able to use XRP for domestic and international settlement of payments and securities within Europe, but also across other RTGS systems like Japan’s or the Federal Reserve’s. It means also the migration of TARGET2 (payments) with TS2 (securities) and TIPS (instant settlement) into one gateway for al European banks. All banks have to be signed with a contract to their selected Network Service Provider of choice BEFORE July 2020. RippleNet with it’s xCurrent (4.0) is one of those NSP’s. EDIT: 28/5/2019 - Ripple is NOT a NSP, since they have not participated in the tender, however RippleNet could probably be accessed though the two chosen NSP's. The new European RTGS system with integration to multiple NSP’s (like RippleNet for instance, currently Swift is the ONLY integrated NSP) will go live, with a “big bang migration” (as they like to call it themselves) in the whole of the EU on November 22, 2021. EDIT: 28/05/2019 - XRP usage "official"? The ECB paper Brad Garlinghouse referred to in his tweet: https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpops/ecb.op223~3ce14e986c.en.pdf%3Ff2e9a2596a8f9c38c95f4735c05a0d47&ved=2ahUKEwjCsKP-gL7iAhXEalAKHZQFAskQFjAAegQIAhAB&usg=AOvVaw0myveAY0kP7vl4vj81wZJa Somewhere in there, you will find one specific sentence which, in my opinion says A LOT about whether banks under the ECB may use XRP for settlement or not. Dyor and decide for yourself.
  2. 11 points
    They won't be simply facilitating EUR-EUR payments and there WILL be a need for XRP. Again, inbound yes. Outbound, why would they. I get your point, I really honestly do but there is more to this story. We have more than 20 different currencies within Europe. At present, the euro is legal tender in 19 out of 28 European Union member states, in addition to 5 countries not part of the EU (Monaco, San Marino, Vatican City, Andorra and Montenegro). Kosovo also uses the euro, but is only partially recognised as an independent state. Every transaction needs to move through the ECB. It is not as easy as it looks and not everyone has the EUR, thats why we even have prefunding issues within the EU. Some countries even have a dual monetary policy (Poland for instance). XRP would be a no-brainer, even in the Euro zone. And I agree with you, it is good the way it is, but there are real ways to make it faster, cheaper and better overall. Opening up Target to more than just Swift is groundbreaking. ALL the european banks will eventually be able to use RippleNet next to swift if they like. Ps. Why am I even busting fud on xrpchat 😂
  3. 10 points
    Woah woah woah, lets take a step back here before this generates mass amounts of hopium. I addressed this a while back, but people seem to still not understand XRPs use case. TARGET2 is for EURO-EURO settlements. XRP IS NOT NEEDED FOR SAME CURRENCY TRANSACTIONS AND SETTLEMENTS. Goodness gracious.
  4. 8 points

    Q1 postmortem analysis and Q2 speculation

    Dear XRPChat, I had planned on making another prediction of Q1 sales before the quarterly report came out, but unfortunately, my day job has been keeping me very busy so I didn't have the time needed to attend to it - and I had problems with my analysis that I didn't understand and that I hope I have rectified now. In my previous posts Analysis of Ripple's XRP sales and 2018 Q4 analysis, I summed payments from wallets to XRP-II to see what the quarterly payments were, and to total them up to see if they matched the sales figures announced by ripple. I had expected to do the same for Q1 2019, but the numbers looked wrong, my correlations were not consistent and the sales figures as a % of coinmarketcap volume didn't look right. I have extensively rewritten (and improved) my software and now have new findings that I feel confident enough about to share them. First, lets remind ourself of daily sales by ripple - in previous threads I found a strong correlation between yesterday's trading volume on coinmarketcap and today's sales (transfers) to the XRP-II distribution wallet. I identified 4 wallets that appeared to sum to about the right amount to explain the sales figures in the quarterly reports. Those wallets were referred to as RP1, RP2, RP3 and RP9. I refer the interested reader to the links above to find further details. If we plot the daily payments from those 4 wallets into the XRP-II wallet (XRP-II being the legal entity licensed to sell XRP to exchanges and customers and is presumably responsible for the programmatic daily sales as well as any number of other sales that we know little about). Here's what the sales look like from April 2018 until today, Note the line plot (linear, left y axis) is the sum of all the individual payments represented by dots that are logarithmically plotted (right axis). I found a strong correlation between the sum of payments and the coinmarketcap exchange volume, scaled by a factor that was around the 0.3% mark. I was intrigued by the drop in sales around mid Sept 2018 that preceeded a large jump in price and volume a week later. My hypothesis was that the drop in sales might be responsible for part of the rise in price (supply/demand). The sales pattern continued, largely unchanged until this year, though there are many wallets that transfer into XRP-II and they change over time, so it is difficult to be certain as to the true nature/volume or reason for the sales taking place. Please be aware that the graph above shows payments INTO the XRP-II wallet, and not out - this is because there are many more payments out and I was trying to identify that portion of sales that represents the daily programmatic sales. For the reasons I've just mentioned, it's too hard to be certain of any motives for individual wallet payments, so instead, I shall focus on payments OUT of XRP-II. Let's have a look at another plot, this time I plot all transfers OUT of XRP-II going into exchange accounts. I am grateful for the google sheet provided by @Silkjaer for a list of wallets that I have used for my assumptions of exchange addresses. You can immediately see that the payments to exchanges is very numerous. The summed total is shown by the solid line and the axes are consistent with the first plot. The totals also follow the same pattern as the sales into XRP-II from the subset of wallets, but is much higher as we are now including other payments from other wallets that are passed through and then go on to exchanges. Let's now show a more interesting graph - this has plots of the total exchange volume from coinmarketcap in green, I have normalized the plot to have the same area under it as the summed total of payments into XRP-II with a time shift of 1 day to show the correlation of the two graphs. The lighter blue line is the RP1,2,3,9 payments into XRP-II and the darker blue line is the summed payments out to exchanges. You should hopefully be able to see that the correlation between XRP-II payments and exchange volume is very strong, however, the correlation starts to break down in Q1 2019 and deteriorates further in Q2 2019 - the reason why my earlier correlation plots failed to give (to me) satisfying results. I have highlighted 3 regions on this plot. The first is in Sept 2018 (grey bar) when the sales from XRP-II virtually stopped. I speculated at the time that the xrp price (shown in the above plot as the black solid line) dropped to a low value for the year and probably ripple wanted to support the price by holding off sales temporarily. If that was the plan, then it worked very well as there was a massive jump at the end of Sept that still defies any reasonable explanation. So many news announcements are constantly being made about partnerships with ripple and events taking place that it is hard to know what might have triggered the rise. The second (grey bar) highlighted region in the plot is in May of this year - the difference between the green (coinmarketcap) and blue lines become very clear. Ripple shut down sales significantly again this month, and we have seen the price rise from ~30c to ~40c. I begin to wonder if my earlier hypothesis might have been correct, but sadly, two events is not enough for a 5 sigma announcement! What else is interesting in the plot? - the red shaded rectangle represents a point where the price of bitcoin was pumping hard, the exchange volume for all coins soared, but the price of XRP did not move very much. Why is that - we can see that the two blue lines rise well above the green one as ripple increased sales significantly - I speculate that they did not wish to see the price shoot up as we saw in Dec 2017, only to fall down again after the pump/dump/fomo/madness was over. Another interesting piece of data is revealed in the plot - the red crosses are payments from exchange accounts BACK to XRP-II - this hardly ever happened in 2018, except for a few scattered points in the year and a cluster of them around Sept 2018 when the sales halted. It is my second hypothesis that ripple have changed strategy during Q1. Prior to this, we see an almost constant sale of XRP proportional to exchange volume, during Q1, particularly after Feb 2019, the sales deviate from a simple pattern and we see returns from exchanges back to XRP-II. It would appear that their algorithm is smarter now and is trying to adapt better to market fluctuations rather than just continuously sell every day. Do we have any way of corroborating this? well, I'm glad you asked. Here's another graph, this time I take a sliding window of 10 days worth of data from XRP-II sales, and the same 10 day window of data from coinmarketcap exchange volume and correlate them, normalize them and plot the scaling coefficient. This gives us the XRP-II sales as a % fraction of the coinmarketcap volume in a running plot and we can see the fluctuation in sales as time progresses. The solid line shows the closing price of XRP, the two dotted lines are the running scale coefficients of the daily % of sales from XRP-II - the red is RP1,2,3,9 the green is ALL payments from exchanges (subtracting the return payments shown by the red crosses in the plot above). Now we can see quite clearly the event in Sept 2018 and the massive drop in may 2019. what is now apparent is Feb-May 2019 there was a large increase in sales as a % of daily volume. Throughout 2018, the red line holds reasonably closely to 0.15% of daily sales, which is fairly consistent with the figures quoted in the ripple quarterly reports. In Q1, things start deviating, and Q2 is all over the place. The drops in Sep 2018 and May 2019 are both followed by XRP price rallies. I added a dotted line at 0.05% of sales just to show how low the sales have dipped. What do I conclude from this... Ripple have changed their selling strategy to better adapt to market conditions and during March/April they increased quite significantly the sales, presumably to smooth out market pump/dump peaks and troughs. Financial institutions do not want like price fluctuations as it increases their cost of holdings - something we should all be grateful for as we want banks to buy in, not run away. Price fluctuations can also increase lay-off costs for market makers which also negatively impacts the market. (We're in this for the long play after all). There has been a slight decoupling over the last month or two with BTC as sales from XRP-II have been historically speaking very high. The large volumes we've seen did not move the price as much as one would have expected. Now would be a great time to pump XRP if whales are reading this! with XRP-II sales very low, it will be easier to move the market. Please go ahead and do this if you can. I'd like to see how high you can push XRP EDIT: I forgot to add one point - why do I think that sales have dropped in recent days? My suspicion (pure speculation) is that with the bear market seemingly coming to an end, Ripple feel safer in allowing the price to rise slightly to accommodate the new corridors they are adding. Disclaimers. All the data has been collected here by a random amateur on the internet. I do not even know for sure if the wallets I examine belong to XRP-II. I do not know for sure if the exchange address I use are correct. All the data in this article could be wrong. I might have even made it up just for giggles (I didn't but how do you know? Do you trust me?) This is not investment advice. But IMHO price rises are more likely when XRP-II sales are low.
  5. 8 points
    The reason Euro settlement can be instant right now is because banks are pre-funding accounts, in the same fashion as an international nostro/vostro relationship. The difference is that here, both nostro and vostro are held in Euros, and they're held at central banks rather than sender/recipient bank. So central banks are acting as the correspondents. Make sense? "TIPS... will allow participating banks to set aside part of their liquidity on a dedicated account opened with their central bank, from which instant payments could be settled around the clock. The balance on these accounts will count towards their required minimum reserve. Instant settlement will eliminate credit risk for all involved participants. The broad participation criteria for TIPS will ensure a high level of reachability." (From: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/paym/intro/mip-online/2017/html/201706_article_tips.en.html) This isn't the most efficient solution, so there's a chance that digital assets like XRP will be used to bridge that in the future. The lossiness of EUR/EUR payments is probably very low, but in the event that EU banks begin to use XRP for ex-EU payments, they'll have that liquidity onhand and could simply send XRP direct to recipients, to satisfy these intra-EU flows without needing to pre-fund.
  6. 8 points
    Could have, but since Brad was in Switzerland in front of a bunch of central bankers, the IMF and the BIS, I'm not worried that those changes would work out badly for Ripple or XRP.
  7. 7 points

    XRP now available on imove

  8. 7 points

    Epic Pennant on BTC Chart

    Right where we are supposed to be to get back to ATH by end of November.
  9. 7 points
    I will always be appreciative that I've been lucky enough to watch this train be built, the tracks layed, and the system started. Humanity is getting an upgrade.
  10. 7 points
    I'm willing to accept that I'm suffering from confirmation bias and looking for positives in the data, but I don't consider myself delusional. At least not yet. Selling tons of XRP and not tanking the price - that's bullish, and it's been said on this forum many times, all the raised $$$ is being spent on building more infrastructure and use cases, so I am not troubled. Come back here in a few more years and we'll see if we were right to think it good management or bad.
  11. 6 points
    Am I living on a different planet here? There are no such thing as German Euros and Greek Euros as they are the SAME currency. There is just “the Euro”. You are confusing bonds with currencies. The different treatment you are describing doesn’t stem from being a different currency, but rather risk of default. Please tell me you understand this. Also, did Malta have a savings freeze? I can’t find anything of that nature. Are you confusing Malta in 2008 with Cyprus in 2012-2013? https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012–13_Cypriot_financial_crisis
  12. 6 points
    The long-term usage of unsubstantiated hopium can cause mental retardation, chronic drooling and unsustainable bag filling.
  13. 6 points
    It was once communicated by the TAS group a few months ago (TAS Network Gateway 3.0 architecture).
  14. 6 points

    Q1 postmortem analysis and Q2 speculation

    By 'funds' - I was referring to the XRP that are begin transferred to exchanges. I do not know from which wallets they really originate - they might be escrow sales, they might be other funds that ripple have access to from the non escrowed warchest. Certainly, the $$$ funds being used to purchase them are coming from you and me, but nobody held me down and forced me to 'invest' in XRP. I don't consider it dumping because I see value in the interledger protocol, the possibilities of ripplenet, atomic settlement, the implications of micropayments and smart contracts and the global changes in the way payments are going to be made in future. I'm willing to let the people who created all of that have a little leeway in how they think it's best to build the IoV and if that means the XRP sales going on daily, then I'm fine with it. To anyone reading this thread, I would be immensely grateful if you could resist the urge to post animated gifs. I find them distracting (and frequently irritating) and there are plenty of other threads where they are appreciated and sometimes entertaining. I have spent many hours trying to create content that might prove interesting/useful for others and I'd appreciate one gif-free thread please. This is not a game!
  15. 5 points
    Thanks! Yes, your example makes sense. The difference is, in the faroff xRapid future, the German bank doesn't need to keep any Euros in the ECB. They simply sell their local onhand Euros for XRP, send it to the Greek bank, and the Greek bank converts it back to Euros. But you're right, in that case you're probably losing more value than you're gaining by not having to pre-fund in the central bank. Longterm: I can imagine some future where both German and Greek banks had XRP float on-hand for international transfers, which would be efficient to use intra-EU as well, rather than pre-funding Euros in some central bank. They only have to hold one pile of XRP instead of holding USD, JPY, EUR pre-funded, etc.
  16. 5 points
    Additionally to the still existing nostro and vostro (prefunded) account issues the whole TARGET2 payment system is just a large EUR -EUR IOU pre funded system with I belief at this point an approximate 50.000 EUR limit for immediate/fast transaction. So its just SWIFT 1.0A and nothing more. @Dutch_ins you are exactly right. At present in the European Union there is only immediate settlement as a result of pre funded accounts. Ripplenet WITH XRP IS NEEDED. Edit: And it is important to note that there does not exist any trust between the south (poor) and north (rich) European countries. The north countries are subsidising countries like Greece, Italy and Spain as their economies are not in sync (continued large debt accumulation). So in fact the South countries are getting free Euros (read free XRP) at the expense of the North of Europe. Ripplenet with XRP AND immediate settlement would actually be a ‘gift from heaven’ when trading with the non trusted countries.
  17. 5 points

    Some near future price speculation.

    Photoshop is my game... It'd be a fun experiment 🤣🤣🤣
  18. 5 points
    Thanks for the clarity. I am not a fan of the Euro project because it seems to me to be a half way house, but my understanding what this means in practice is somewhat fuzzy. I sometimes wonder if they would have invented the Euro if XRP had been launched before the Euro? XRP seems to answer the problems of both cross border payments and flexibility between economic zones/currencies, and XRP seems to me to be destined to become more than just the donkey that transfers value. It has a value as a store of value for transactions between currency zones.
  19. 5 points
    You apparently didn’t read my post properly. No offence taken... you accused me of being blinded and a fan boy... to be honest I think I’m mostly rational and considered. On the other hand I feel that you have unfortunately gotten so disgruntled that it has coloured your thinking.on this matter. I agree with @jbjnr and everyone else, that have said that although the ongoing selling is not wonderful, it is necessary, and the fairest option available, I also agree that at some point there may come a time when the whole lot is moved holus bolus to the IMF or some other third party. But that may not happen, and until (if) it does... sales are the only sensible way forward. Dumping them all as you suggest Valhalla is the dumbest and least productive thing that they could do. A massive flood of cold water onto the tiny fire that they are trying to nurse into life. You paint me and others as fan boys worshipping our gods... that’s ridiculous, and to some extent speaks to a simplistic way of viewing the world. Instead I consider Brad, David etc to be people like me... decent enough folk that are trying to do the right thing. My assessment is that they are playing a straight bat. Those who demonise them, and feel we are all suckers, seem to have the blinkered view in my opinion.
  20. 4 points
    The difference is... German Euros are in Germany, and Greek Euros are in Greece. The challenge is getting them from one country to the other in an instant. Since that can't be done, the value has to be stored in two places at the same time: pre-funding.
  21. 4 points

    Epic Pennant on BTC Chart

    @Trentsteel @djdhrubs I bought into NEO before the run just after it shed the antshares name. I'm up on it but I rode it up and rode it down. Can't wait to see that coin regain it's former high and higher. NEO 3.0 is coming out soon I hear. Fingers crossed. XRP chart is looking good, not that XRP is very chart-able but the 50 Day EMA is set to cross the 100 Day EMA in the next 4 days. @Baka XRP could regain it's all time high before Bitcoin. XRP is hard to predict But I think ti's gonna have a good year.
  22. 4 points

    Some near future price speculation.

    Might quit while I'm ahead 🤣
  23. 4 points

    Some near future price speculation.

    Gotta admit, this is working out closer than I was expecting. Didn't expect the drop last week though, so $0.47 and beyond either today or tomorrow works for me.
  24. 4 points
    Agree on the proximity, but we have to restrain ourselves from interpreting that proximity to imminent, guaranteed XRP usage. The proximity combined with the “dot connecting” on crypto twitter and elsewhere is what fuels these XRP conspiracies being propagated online and can cause massive amounts of unsubstantiated hopium. XRP will be successful, but I do think we ought to stick to fact-based rather than circumstantial evidence. Just my 2 cents.
  25. 4 points
    This means absolutely nothing for XRP. XRP is not needed for TARGET2 Euro-Euro settlements. People are just making loose connections between different slide decks and drawing conclusions that don’t exist
  26. 4 points
    Great post!! XRPchat should be the premium place for XRP related info and contribution like yours is what can make this happen. Keep on posting I love it!!! I've been part of this since early 2014. The reason I got in was Ripple's strategy and how they plan on building an ecosystem for XRP. So far they have pretty much done everything I assumed they would be doing. So I plan hodling through the next bullrun and until we see a well established ecosystem.
  27. 4 points
    Will there be a run on Ripple? "Ehmm I'm not sure what that would look like but ehmmm'. Yes they will eventually use XRP. And even if they don't they will have the option to do so through a third party liquidity provider / xRapid partner. I think it is inevitable, but when the regulation is in place, it will need to be 'all at once', to avoid unfair competition.
  28. 4 points
    Really massive volumes now only to be processed with swift as NSP currently. 432.508 BILLION in 2018. We hear "we're still early" a lot, but I feel like an unborn when I look at those numbers and the possible share in tx volume. Edit; what does 432,508 billion in processed value look like? Hmmm... 432,508,000,000,000,- It personally means for me that I will hodl at least until we get to the year 2022. I think hodling through a bull market will be much more difficult than the bear market we have/had.
  29. 4 points
    Excellent find. This will give all NSP’s a fair chance. And we know that Ripple’s DLT (with XRP) will be ‘in the lead’. @Hodor this info can easily be the cherry for your next blog (already looking forward to it)
  30. 4 points
    Hey great work finding this . Could you tell me where you found that ripplenet is an avaible choice for an NSP? To my information the list of avaible choices will be made official end 2019 -not now.
  31. 4 points

    Tiffany Hayden

  32. 4 points

    Is XRP EVER going to be above $5 ?????

    You are outright discriminating people here(on age) and insulting other members for no apparent reason at all. Better get your act together cause this behaviour wont be accepted in here.
  33. 4 points
    I think we have proof now.
  34. 4 points
    OK, I agree with that part - but who is going to rebalance the corridors that are already open? Mexico, Philippines, now/soon India, Brazil - someone at the other end of those channels has to absorb a lot of XRP and use it to generate new MXN that can be used to buy up XRP from all the incoming payments. For that to happen, a reasonably non-volatile price is going to help. (I think - but I welcome discussion from anyone who has expertise in this area). So my previous answer is really trying to address that comment. OK. As a scientist, I'm good with occam's razor, so I'm with you on that one - and I also agree that the ripple execs are honest and they are not trying to be misleading. But the evidence of Graph 4 in my analysis has to be explained somehow. If we adopt occam's razor then the simplest explanation is that there are other wallets making payments that I have not included in my analysis and there is no 'manipulation' going on. All we are seeing is an effect of bad sampling of the data. That being the case, we have no choice but to wait until the Q2 report comes out and see if there is/are any useful hints in it that help explain things. I somehow doubt we'll get anything more than a % of sales update and maybe a comment about market conditions. For now, I'd like to continue speculating - this is the kind of discussion I was hoping to stimulate, particularly the problem of rebalancing payment corridors -which is my main reason to believe that ripple needs a stable price. Someone must know more about this. Bobway perhaps?
  35. 3 points
    By the way, I don't trust Euros from a bank in Greece since they are funded from large debt amounts. What if they get sanctioned and the funds are put on hold 🤣
  36. 3 points
    Can you explain why XRP is needed for a EUR-EUR payment? If I have EUR and must pay out in EUR, why do I need XRP? Banks do not need nostro/vostro accounts if they are transacting in their functional currency. What you said makes no sense. Example: Netherlands bank wants to pay 1000 EUR to German bank. Netherlands bank does not need a nostro account with the German bank to make the payment in EUR. Nor does it have to "source liquidity" via XRP, as it already possesses EUR.
  37. 3 points
    The difference in this example though is that the “value” you are referring to is the “value” of the bond or promise, not the “value” of a EUR. I think a more fitting term is “price” or “premium”, as the riskier borrower must pay more for the same Euro. The “price” of the bond or contract is dependent on the risks of the borrower only in this example, as the underlying value of what is being promised is equal for both a German bond and a Greek bond (1 EUR = 1 EUR). It isn’t so much 1 EUR isn’t equal to another EUR, it is more the case that one sovereign borrower of EUR is less capable of paying back the EUR than another sovereign EUR borrower, resulting in a higher “price” paid by the less capable borrower for the same amount of EUR.
  38. 3 points
    Because... patterns.
  39. 3 points
    Actually the Euro is not altogether unified. There are Greek Euros and German Euros and there is a fracture between them, as we found out in the Greek debt crisis. The Euro is really a basket of currencies with one name and effectively trading as a single currency, but that is not how it works under the bonnet. The bond markets treat Greek Euros differently from German Euros. I presume this problem goes back to central bank accounting, and would need an expert to tell us if Euros can be treated with absolute parity in TIPs. Malta is a member of the Eurozone. In 2008 all the banks in Malta were frozen and given a haircut, effectively money was stolen from the Maltese bank deposits. These victims could not get them money out and across borders in spite of being in a single financial zone.
  40. 3 points
    No but it can be. And you also won't be tied to SWIFT for transfers to other RTGS's! I get your point but there are also OUTBOUND transactions. A hell of a lot of them.
  41. 3 points

    buy now or wait a bit?

    I agree. XRP has lost so much value against BTC at a time that XRP development of the IoV has been gaining traction at increasing speed (Today the Thailand Japan XRapid corridor has been confirmed as now open, Brazil seems imminent). XRP is just about to form a golden cross and looks like being at the bottom of a dip (relative to BTC). Word of caution: I have a a history of underestimating the attraction of BTC to investors because I cannot get my head around why people think it has a future as a currency or store of value. For about a year I have been expecting the Flippening to happen, how wrong I have been!
  42. 3 points

    Is XRP EVER going to be above $5 ?????

    I don't even know why I keep replying to a kid like you but I will for the last time. "You do not have the IQ to hold any asset on it's the way to $20, let alone from 40 cents. " I've hold from 0.15$ to 3.4$ , then sold at 2.2$ , rebought at 0.30-0.35$. You're talking like you're superior , that's pretty sad too. "I trade and invest for a living ." That's what you say on your little blog right? well great for you I hope it's working well , instead of talking trash, you should help people who are new to this world.
  43. 3 points

    Price potential of XRP

    I read all the posts you youngsters post at almost 76. I hope I live long enough to see $1.20 when I will break even!
  44. 3 points

    Q1 postmortem analysis and Q2 speculation

    I will try to answer as best I can several questions in the same post. I submitted mine late last night, then went out for the day today and had a lovely surprise when I see that x,y,z and 38 others have reacted to your post ... Well, yes. We don't have evidence that FI's are holding xrp. But what is Corda Settler for? And how will market makers rebalance their accounts? I am no expert in corda settler, but my understanding is that two FI's agree on a transaction and one option for settling is to simply transfer xrp from Alice to Bob and then agree that the deal is settled. Nobody is going to seriously considering keeping loads of XRP in the vaults ready for this kind of transaction if they buy it this week and next week it drops by 15%. Even if nobody is using it yet, we want to create the kind of market conditions that makes them think it's a good idea to try it and if XRP is stable over the long term, then they might consider it. If it pumps and dumps every six weeks along with BTC, then it won't even be considered an option. And rebalancing ... the remittance flows to Mexico, India, Philippines, Brazil, and all the new corridors - these create a big imbalance in the exchanges on those accounts, someone on the mexican side has to provide a lot of MXN to buy up the XRP flowing in there, and they then have to offload that XRP somewhere else and get more MXN - who's going to do that? Ripple have given us clues before - traders/businesses on the mexican side who want to make payments back to USA side companies and can save on the bid/ask spread by using the XRP they already have instead of buying it back. What does a massive dump in XRP price do to them - it shafts them big time and leaves them out of pocket. Who benefits from this - not the XRP ecosystem that we want to mature and completely redesign the financial money flow globally. Stable steady prices for XRP benefit the ecosystem. Maybe not us speculators, but who cares about us. Certainly not me. I'm not so sure. I think I've made my views clear in the above reply, but ripple is in a rather unique position and I see them more like gardeners trying to encourage the seedlings to grow into healthy strong plants. Since it is at .39 as I write this, I'd say that the recent drop in sales might well be to allow the price to rise a little. If you have to ask that, then clearly I wasn't being funny enough. Yes. It was a serious joke. The wallets addresses I'm using might be wrong. All I'm tracking is sales from XRP-II to exchanges - I haven't even started on all the other transactions that take place. This is only flow from XRP-II to exchanges where it can be sold - some of it might be sitting there, some of it might for incentivising market makers, some might not be from escrow sales, some might be from escrow, some might be founders xrp being sold, some might be from staff options being liquidated, some might be from early investors who have asked XRP-II to handle sales in a sensible steady flow, some might be from partnerships made years ago with terms and conditions on release. We know NOTHING about what is going on and most of what you read on this forum is speculation and guesswork - Especially the posts of mine where I make feeble attempts to guess what ripple are doing. For XRP-II, I'm 10 confident, for the exchanges, maybe an 8-10 (some I've verified, others not). for the other analysis that I haven't posted here yet, less. I have made a start on some xRapid analysis and that is much lower. Thank you @iLeeT for your confidence and the support. Watching the XRP-II sales is indeed a good way of gauging conditions and I am also keen to see what happens next. I'd love it if anyone from ripple who might read this were to respond and clarify if they have been trying to back-off or smooth the market. I doubt we'll get a response, but it'd be very nice if they included some small note about that in the Q2 report when it comes out. Controlled selling is the phrase I'd use. Dumping implies they don't care about the price. I suspect that they do. How do you get rid a massive warchest of the kind they have. Giving it away, airdrops, lotteries etc are terrible, if everyone received N XRP, it'd be worthless and the price would drop. Selling it the way they do is really the way to do it. People who are prepared to pay for it, buy it. It now has value where it didn't before. We believe that large scale IOV usage will drive the price higher so we're happy to buy in now. Dumping it serves nobody. I disagree strongly with that. Re-escrowing is the best thing to do. We want a guarantee that supply will be controlled, if they don't re-escrow then they gradually build up more and more with no rules holding them back from flooding the market. They could have kept everything (like XLM for example) with no guarantees, but they chose to escrow it, very wisely IMHO. ^this exactly. This is completely new territory. Only central banks have been here before, controlling the interest rates to regulate flow - interesting that of all the crypto projects, ripple are the ones who actually speak to central banks and participate in IMF meetings, payments initiatives and sit on the panels of many of the big projects that are happening. and this^. Quite right. Sell as much as possible to create the market, but not so much that it tanks the price. I believe they have a plan, it might not be perfect, but I've seen no evidence that anyone on XRPChat has a better plan yet. I will continue reading the new posts. Thank you all for taking this thread seriously and not derailing it from the main subject.
  45. 3 points
    Yes, this is crypto, the irregulated Wild West where prices can, will and actually are manipulated. And there lies the reason or possibility for crazy ROI’s. Once it’s cleared, be prepared for annual ROI’s of say 5%. Nice, but I just got that with LTC in 3 days and today with TRX in 1 day. Ripple is a whale when it comes to XRP. Maybe a whale we can trust, maybe not, but nevertheless a powerfull partie for XRP’s future ROI in all aspects. Like it or not. Is that fair and how it should be? Maybe not. But ROI’s of 36000% in 1 year ( 2017) aren’t normal either. I’ m literally gambling on another booming event , counting on the Wild West once again.
  46. 2 points

    Poker Student for Coil

    If you’re only 3b AKs in position, you’re going to be extremely polarized and get wrecked. If you’re going to offer “coaching”, you should at least provide graphs to show you’re a winner over a large sample.
  47. 2 points
    Don't know about you guys, but I'm waiting for confirmation of confirmation before popping the champagne.
  48. 2 points
    Yes banks do use XRP and it is not a security.
  49. 2 points
    You might be right about the first assertion above (I agree anyway) but I think it's more likely that RL is walking a fine line and trying hard to achieve what they see as a balance.......between getting past the stage being the majority owner of XRP and getting past this somewhat unstable stage of things without crashing XRP back to .03 instead of .30. If they sell more than the market will absorb the price might drop by a power of ten, which is not good. So they re-escrow and hope demand rises next month (or some month soon) and then they can get on track. I see it as trying to be prudent, not greedy. It might or might not be the best strategy. The waters are pretty uncharted, no?
  50. 2 points
    Good to see you back......I like your succinct and factual style.
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