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Showing content with the highest reputation since 11/10/2018 in all areas

  1. 154 points
    JoelKatz

    Hi! I'm Bob

    We certainly would never discourage anyone from using the XRPL's distributed exchange feature! I'm still a bit sad that our strategy lead us in a different direction and that we abandoned the nascent ecosystem we had been building. It was clear that the feature was way ahead of its time and there was no direct path to adoption then. I talk to Ethan (head of Xpring and pretty much everything at Ripple other than cross-currency payments) frequently about whether there are good use cases for the ledger's decentralized exchange now and whether that's something we can use Xpring to help develop. I have a plan that moves us in that direction that I've been working on and shown to several people inside the company. The problem I keep coming back to is that there isn't quite a great use case that I can see how to move to a product just yet. But getting more minds thinking in that direction might yield results and time has brought the rest of the world in this direction. The other thing that Arthur and I built into the ledger in the early days is community credit. That is, I think, even further ahead of its time and even harder to see a solid use case for in the near term. I sometimes feel like I work for Twitter in 2000 and I'm trying to explain to everyone that for us to really grow, people need better phones. Of course, there was no Twitter in 2000 -- it was too early. I'm trying to find ways to make it later as quickly as possible.
  2. 133 points
    BobWay

    Hi! I'm Bob

    Hello all. Just wanted to introduce myself. I'm Bob Way, formerly of Ripple. Thank you in advance for allowing me to join your forum. Back in the early days of crypto I was pretty active in the Bitcointalk and Ripple communities (under the username "Red"). In fact my community participation was what directly led to me going to work for Chris and the gang at OpenCoin. I made a lot of good friend in the forums five years back. I'm hoping to make some new ones now. Bob
  3. 99 points
    BobWay

    Hi! I'm Bob

    As promised, I didn't go to bed before finishing monstrosity. It is the delayed continuation of the post I left hanging here. Sorry for the delay. ----- I've had a long love/hate relationship with bitcoin. When I first heard about it I was inthralled with the technology. I dug in deep to understand everything I could. It seemed like a global LETS system to me. There were a few things I didn't like. It wasn't very private even though everyone kept calling it anonymous. I was one of the first to point out how the DAG could be used to unmask people. I may also have been one of the first to describe the mixer concept. I kicked around some ideas for a next generation more private blockchain data structure with Satoshi. I wasn't cryptography savvy enough to make that work, but I was happy when the zerocoin folks worked it out. But the one thing I always hated about bitcoin was the monetary policy, I made that clear with my first post on bitcointalk. I thought and still think that volatile cryptocurrencies make lousy "money". Medium of exchange -- OK, that works Unit of account -- Hum? Is it really a consistent "measure of value" Standard of deferred payment -- Nope, you can's agree to BTC denominated rent or other contracts Store of value -- Not really, store implies you get the same value out you put in It turns out bitcoin is much better described as a commodity than a currency. This argument did not win me popularity either. Over the next three years I explored other monetary policies and spent a lot of time trying to work out how to make a stable valued cryptocurrency. It was during that exploration that I discovered Ripple. It turns out Ripple is a uniquely suitable platform on which to build a stable coin. ----- By 2013 there were a lot of bitcoin maximalists pumping BTC. There pitch went something like this: The Dollar is going to crash! The Euro is going to crash! People are going to NEED to use BTC. The whole world's financial system is going to hell! You can buy BTC now and be RICH! Or you can buy BTC later with the poor people. I thought that was a pretty sucky marketing plan. "The whole world's gonna be miserable, but hey, we DESERVE to be rich! We didn't actually do anything. But we did happen to notice this weird thing on Slashdot first!" I thought that pitch was lamely transparent even for a scammer. I didn't expect many to fall for it. ----- It was in that context that I made the comments that kicked off the request for comment. Keep in mind that when Ripple launched OpenCoin was giving away XRP. Please read at least the first page here. You'll see that there was an organized campaign to call Ripple a scam right from the beginning. Crypto is a hostile environment. The initial amounts given were 50,000 XRP. Note Jed was first in line. Also note that Vitalik Buterin was on the first page. That XRP amounts tapered down over time. By the time I discovered Ripple the giveaway amount was 20,000 XRP. I had begged David for XRP a few days before I received my giveaway amount. I'd been posting in the forum and was way too impatient to wait. He graciously funded my initial wallet with 555 XRP. Keep in mind the account reserve was 200 XRP, and trust lines and offers were 50 XRP each. So 555 only represented a half dozen trust lines and market orders. What's most important to the discussion we are having now, and the mindset I had then, is the relative valuation. The story I was told is that when PayPal launched, they gave everyone who signed up at the beginning $10. At the beginning of the giveaway OpenCoin considered 50,000 XRP to be worth about $10. ($0.0002 in Feb 2013). By May, people in the forums had been speculating that XRP would reach $5 by the end of the year. I had shouted down a few of those speculation threads, and that was what I was referring to when I wrote this: I thought such outlandish speculation made Ripple actually sound like the scam others were claiming it was. I also thought that most of the speculators had no idea what the "rippling" concept in Ripple actually was. Most were just happy they had gotten free crypto since the bitcoin faucet had long ago dried up. ----- Now in retrospect, I made two bad presumptions in the 4 points I made in that original post. First, I was a Ripple maximalist and presumed that OpenCoin wanted all 6 billion people on the planet to have their own Ripple address on ledger. Having a Ripple address means needing some amount of XRP for the account reserve and trust lines. The average amount 6 billion people would pay just to have an account is pretty small. ($1 would be a pretty high barrier to entry in poorer regions) That was what I was referring to here: Say 6-8 billion people and add in a couple billion businesses. You are looking at 10 billion addresses. That averages to only 10 XRP per address. Now you have to consider some of that is locked into the account reserves. If you support the local currencies as well, that's at least 10 billion trust lines and and offer reserves. The reserves will need to fall into drop amounts at that point. Otherwise there isn't much XRP to use for transaction fees. The use of trust lines to represent local fiat currencies was what I meant by "unlimited supply" here: All in all, it didn't seem to me that XRP was being considered by OpenCoin as a common payment denomination. (Meaning to specify the price of goods or services in XRP rather than in USD) It was pretty clear OpenCoin saw XRP as a bridge currency, but that would be hidden from most Ripple users who continued to hold and spend their local fiat currency. This third point I have discussed in at least a couple of other places in this thread. This logic is still sound. I began to realize my presumption about 10 billion on ledger addresses was incorrect shortly afterwards. The second bad presumption I made was that OpenCoin was manipulating XRP prices by selling off enough XRP to keep the price stable. (Remember I'm a fan of stable money) Stable XRP value seemed such an obvious precursor to XRP becoming a bridge currency, that I couldn't see any other way that could happen. (Why stable currencies make good bridge currencies is a longer discussion that I'll make in my "book" but you are probably bored of this already.) This presumption was what I was referring to in 4a: I learned much to my surprise that OpenCoin had never even considered manipulating the market price to increase stability! I never saw any inclination to do during my tenure either. So clearly I was wrong about 4a. If you are holding XRP like I am, I don't have any reason to believe that Ripple is competing against you and attempting to hold down XRP prices. That also invalidates my 4b crack about greater fools. But really that was just a rude crack made at the expense of the folks who were speculating in the forums in 2013. To them, and anyone here who was taken aback, I offer my humble apologies. ----- Now if I ended the story here and referred you back to this post about upward XRP price pressures, I could rationalize this as a "more optimistic ending"... ...but come on. Do you really think I'm that lame? This whole story would make me sound like I'm just one of those lesser fools I mocked, waiting for the greater fools to show up. I'm not that kind of d***. So I'll leave you with something that just might make your head explode. But I'll have to say this very carefully using words that I've already heard authorized Ripplers say in public. Hopefully, that will keep me out of trouble... It's conventional wisdom that the one thing you can't do by giving away an asset like XRP--is make its price go up. Except one day, a while back, Stefan proposed a concept in which it might... I was quite reticent to believe it. It seemed intuitively impossible, much like you are thinking now. So I sat down to analyze it. And analyze it. And analyze it... And in the end I concluded his exact proposal was wrong. It was likely to put downward pressure on the prices of XRP. But, Stefan wasn't very wrong. In fact, using his proposal as a starting place, I tweaked the parameters and intermediate goals and came up with a mechanism that I'm completely convinced will work. It leads to a net upward pressure on the price of XRP... ..and Ripple and I received a patent for it. Now I don't speak for the company so I can't say if they'll ever deploy the system. I can't say they won't either. But I can say that I know at least one method exists that defies the above conventional wisdom. Hopefully, that is optimistic enough to make up for any panic triggers you might have suffered!
  4. 98 points
    jbjnr

    Analysis of Ripple's XRP sales

    I would like to present here my findings on a slightly more detailed examination of sales from the ripple XRP-II wallet (rHjJwY4maqRyUxCnJ9bNNQ2Tva9fe9T8ud) and also the 3 wallets rHjJwY4maqRyUxCnJ9bNNQ2Tva9fe9T8ud, r49yezViZ8N6FtwwKg9byDYtJ3UDuJi1zv, r3epSojEkn6pFRwjxkFjwJLPAxC8Hj9ZTK that we believe are ripple controlled and have been supplied to my by @xp3215233 who deserves your thanks for the numbers I have extracted and plotted here. I will refer to the 3 wallets hereafter as RP1, RP2, RP3 to indicate that we think they are ripple controlled. In addition, I will also include some details of sales from the "BearWhale" account and Jed's tacostand account as a tag-along bonus at the end. There is no particular agenda to the analysis presented here, other than to further our understanding of the XRP ecosystem and broaden our knowledge (in the spirit of DYOR). The analysis I presented prior to the Q3 results release was a bit sloppy and I thought I would try again with a slightly more rigorous approach. Disclaimer : Although the numbers/dates extracted from wallets can be considered 'facts', the actual ownership/control/motives of wallets and transactions through them is mostly unknown and suppositions are based on the collective guesswork and historical evidence gleaned from resources such as xrpchat and previous ripple forums. Other than the XRP-II wallet which is known to be owned and controlled by the ripple subsidiary XRP-II and is licensed to sell XRP, I do not actually know for certain who controls any of the wallets mentioned in this post, and therefore any discussion or conclusions made here must be considered speculation. Nothing else that you read here should be taken at face value and you should even consider the possibility that everything presented here is forged material, made up just to manipulate the market. Let's start by looking at all the sales from the 4 (ripple controlled?) wallets going back to last year. Note that in the following plot, transactions between accounts are not included, only those that leave them are shown. The plot shows payments from the 4 wallets in separate colours to distinguish and identify their origin, overlaid on the total sales volume on exchanges (as returned by queries to https://min-api.cryptocompare.com/data). It is immediately clear that the 4 wallets are being used to make transactions with different 'sales' patterns. (The word sales is quoted here because in general, I assume that transfers from wallets are for the purpose of sales, but in many cases they may not be, however the term 'sales pattern' is a nice one to describe activity). Note that the plot uses linear scale (left) for the (black) volume from cryptocompare, and logarithmic scale (right) for the payments as they span a wide range of values and are best viewed thusly. The patterns become slightly more interesting when we look at the destination wallets of the payments, as shown in the following plot where we see the same data coloured by destination rather than source. I have tried to cross reference the destination account with the names of wallets used by exchanges. Again, I stress that the names presented here may not be correct, however, the chances are high that some/most of them are valid and what we care about is the pattern, rather than the specifics of each payment. The coloured dots represent payments and the solid line above is the daily sum of those payments, all are again overlaid on the daily volume from cryptocompare and a logarithmic scale is used for payments and their daily sum. The logarithmic plot compresses the sum line considerably and so it is not immediately obvious that their is any correlation between the transfers from ripple and the daily volume. Let’s have another look, but this time we will add another filter, we will remove all payments that went to addresses/wallets that do not have a destination tag. We do not know the addresses of all exchanges, but most exchanges require the use of a destination tag to separate client accounts. (GateHub is one notable exception where each user has an individual wallet). Filtering by tag gives us a reasonable approximation of payments that are going to exchanges and we can see the list of destination accounts is significantly reduced. Some things are obvious from the plots of payments: The sheer number of payments from these wallets during the second half of 2018 is quite staggering, and the fact that a very large number of them appear to be going to exchanges is very interesting. There do appear to be correlations between payments/sales and trade volumes, though those correlations change subtly over time and it is quite evident that in early April 2018 the sales strategy of ripple changed dramatically. It is of course possible that ripple uses other wallets for sales and simply changed at this time to one that we are tracking, from one that we do not know about. The pattern of payments changes on 12th April 2018 so let us examine more closely the pattern from that time onwards, excluding the payments from the XRP-II wallet. (This wallet is believed to be responsible for “direct” sales rather than programmatic and careful observation of the first plot shows that it makes less frequent, but often very large payments that do not look like programmed sales to an exchange). This plot shows us payments from RP1,RP2,RP3, only to accounts using a destination tag and it is now quite clear that there is a correlation between payment volume and exchange volume. There is also a mysterious gap in payments between 12th and 19th of September this year. The correlation is a little difficult to see due to the log/linear comparison, so lets compute the correlation time shift and normalize the plots to see how they compare and overlay them using linear scale for both. The correlation is good, the cross correlation function has a peak that appears with a time shift of 1 day. This plot shows the ripple sales volume (blue) time shifted by 1 day (earlier = to the left) and overlaid on the exchange volume (black). Normalization of the two volumes give a factor of 29.19 difference between the ripple sales and the exchange volume - this seems to me to be a fairly remarkable result. It tells us that ripple are selling XRP at approximately 1/29.19 = 0.034 = ~3% of daily volume based on the previous days exchange total. This is far higher than I had expected and higher than reported in their quarterly sales figures. The figures declared by Ripple are as follows Note that we do not know if the figures for 2016-Q4, 2017-Q1 are direct or programmatic, but I put them in the direct column since it would appear that their programmatic sales have been better coordinated more recently than in the past. Whilst the correlation is good (with time shift we have Pearson coeff 0.88), with the peaks and troughs lining up extremely well, there are some deviations. Around the region of Jul-Aug on the graph, the (normalized) volume sold by ripple appears slightly higher than the exchange volume, so it is possible that they have been adjusting the amounts slightly over time on a month by month basis to see how the market is affected. It’s also possible that the volume being used for calculations is coming from another source (i.e. not cryptocompare) and is slightly different, it is also possible that I am including sales from wallets that are not part of their programmatic sales, or other wallets exist that I am not aware of. Certainly we can see that when the trade volume rises and the xrp price rises, the programmatic sales increase the next day and this in turn brings the price back down. The ongoing bear market (at least for XRP) has not been assisted by the selling pressure of 3% per day - especially when we consider that significant parts of the other 97% of trade may be of suspicious activity on largely unregulated exchanges. How do the sales we have extracted compare in terms of $$$ with those declared by ripple in their quarterly reports? We assume here that the price that the XRP is being sold for is the mean price on the day it is transferred, this is at best an approximation, but since the transfers are happening every day (at least for RP2 since April), we must assume that the XRP is actually entering the market and not simply accumulating in wallets on the exchange. edit: ERRATUM: The table shows $$$ amounts for the quarters, but the right column total is the XRP amount, the $total is less. Apologies. . The numbers here are much larger than those declared by ripple (and shown earlier). I have experimented with different combinations of summation from different wallets, using different combinations of high/low/closing price, but have not been able to find a set that reliably reproduces the figures from ripple. What hypothetical conclusions can we draw from this Ripple are telling outrageous lies about the amount they sell? This seems highly improbable. Everything we know about the company indicates that they are “Very Serious People” in the right sense of the words (if you pardon me parodying a phrase partially popularized by Krugman). Ripple are making the payments we see on the ledger, but they are not all ripple sales. This is my own best guess. They have setup bots to make transfers to exchanges. Many many exchanges, far more than I imagined, and now that this infrastructure is in place, they are using it for their own programmatic sales, but reusing it for sales from staff/founders wallets. Why not sell some fraction of daily volume direct from ripple, and include some of the other XRP they need to offload. This way, they only have to worry about 1 set of scripts and can do the accounting of who is owed what internally within the company. Ripple are looking after us. True that they are ‘dumping’ massive quantities of XRP into the markets which is certainly keeping the price down and preventing wild speculative fluctuations - from the sums above, we are looking at around $500m (edit: not $1B as written previously) in total since 2017-Q4. This is interesting because it is ‘new money’ entering the markets. This is not wash trading between day traders on exchanges, but continuous drip feeding of XRP into the markets that is building the liquidity that will be needed when large scale adoption of the “internet of value” kicks off. Ripple are looking after us. Look closely at the graph of sales for September 2018. Ripple sales stopped for 1 week between 12-19 of the month, apart from a small amount that was probably setup on a different trading algorithm from the main programmatic sales that started after April 12th. Why did sales stop that week? I chose to overlay the price on the volume correlation in the plot above because on Sep 11th the closing price (as cited by cryptocompare) of XRP was around $0.26, the lowest value of the year and I suspect that ripple decided that it would be a good idea to stop their sales temporarily to help the market. Sales stopped and the price began to recover. In fact by the end of the week it shot up dramatically, partly based no doubt on news about xRapid adoption, as there was much talk prior to swell - but the correlation between a sudden doubling of XRP price right after the cessation of ripple sales seems to me to be extremely interesting. Correlation does not imply causation and we cannot be sure, however, should ripple cease sales again for some reason and a similar effect take place, we will have better evidence to support our hypothesis. (If anyone from ripple is reading this, then please feel free to temporarily shut down sales so that we can see if the price spikes again). The market is healthy. We have only shown what we believe are programmatic sales in the correlation and summations, but XRP-II is also making direct sales that add to the total. In addition there are ongoing sales from the bearwhale and Jed and possibly many many more wallets that we are not aware of, that are all being absorbed by the market and it appears to be holding up very well. Up to this point we have looked at the sales from RP1, RP2, RP3, but XRP-II which we believe to be the direct sales account. Here are the payments from XRP-II to accounts with a destination tag, the total is around 264 million XRP paid (not the $ amount since we do not know the sale price). If we remove the restriction of only counting payments to tagged accounts, then the figure jumps to a tidy 3.8 billion XRP transferred since Q4 2016. Not bad at all. Let’s take a small diversion and add Jed and the bearwhale to our analysis to see if it gives consistent figures. Payments from Jed’s accounts do not correlate well with exchange volume unless we only consider Feb 2018 onwards. There are some gaps in sales where trading appears to have temporarily stopped, however if we consider sales from 2018-02-01 (Feb 1st 2018), we have a very good correlation with volume with a time shift of 13 days and a normalization coefficient of 221 which equates to a daily selling of 1/221 = 0.0045 or 0.45% of daily volume. This appears to be consistent with the agreement which appears to allow 0.5% of daily volume based on the average volume of the period 2 weeks prior (please inform me if I have used the wrong agreement details). The BearWhale remains our most ardent foe, with semi random transfers to exchanges that happen when the volume increases. Presumably the sales then take place in steady chunks on the exchanges, and we cannot track them individually, but we can assume that the sale happen over the days and weeks following transfers to exchanges. Using 24 account that are believed to be BearWhale related, we see the following pattern. Out of curiosity, if we sum the sales from BearWhale, Jed, and Ripple and assume they are all traded at the price on the day, what do we get. edit: ERRATUM: The table shows $$$ amounts for the quarters, but the right column total is the XRP amount, the $total is less. Apologies. . The sums are quite impressive. Note that Jed's tacostand is not included in the figures above as it send to a non tagged account, so please add $50m (not $131m as written previously) to the total. edit: ERRATUM: The table shows $$$ amounts for the quarters, but the right column total is the XRP amount, the $total is less. Apologies. To conclude this post, I am rather stunned by the scale of xrp sales that are going on, whilst many of the numbers presented here may be incorrect, and not attributable to ripple, jed or the BearWhale, the fact remains that huge amounts of xrp are being purchased and we are still well over double the price of this time last year. I am very confident that if and when xRapid is adopted at scale, we will see further improvements in the market.
  5. 87 points
    BobWay

    Hi! I'm Bob

    Ripple as a company can be pretty opaque. Especially if you are not a banker getting regular updates on our progress. I'm happy to answer questions about the people involved historically and currently. The company grows and changes quickly so I'm probably out of date already on exactly who is on which team at the moment though. I guess I should introduce myself for those who don't know me. Don't feel bad if you don't. I purposely kept a low profile. I discovered bitcoin reasonably early in 2010. I was pondering creating a digital currency for the web (for my own reasons) when I happened into it. I had a bit of a love/hate relationship with bitcoin. I loved the concept of a pure digital currency. I hated the monetary policy and I wasn't a big fan of the community or its "marketing plan". If you check my history (Red) from way back you'll see that I was very off and on in the bitcointalk forums. April of 2013 was one of those "on" times again with the bitcointalk forum. Occasionally people called be back to talk about stable coins. It was during that period that I was canvasing to see of any of the alt-coin forks implemented any of the long list of suggestions we had created for bitcoin. That was when I ran across Ripple. It turned out that Ripple implemented all the improvements people had suggested for bitcoin and also a bunch of really cool stuff that I hardly understood. So I became obsessive about Ripple. First (unpopularily) discussing it at bitcointalk. Then later at JoelKatz's suggestion discussing it on the Ripple forums. During that period a lot of really smart Canadian's (Singpolyma, dchapes, etc.) from the earlier "Classic Ripple Pay" community taught me an amazing amount about money and rippling. I obsessed so much that after 6 weeks I was the number one poster on the Ripple forum. More posts at that time than even JoelKatz! :-) So in June I wrote Ripple asking for a job. I was the 10th hire after the founders. In my 5 years at Ripple I served in a lot of different roles all of which I'm very proud of. The original integration engineer Designed Ripple "pre-transaction messaging" system Designed the Ripple Rest API Designed RippleConnect/xCurrent Original product manager for RippleConnect Original member of Ripple research (ILP atomic mode, XRP bridge currency incentive analysis) Original sales engineer once we pivoted to a banking sales model Finally served as intellectual property wrangler between the research, engineering and legal teams I only write al this so folks here will understand the breadth of questions I'm willing to answer. During my time at Ripple I also served is informal historian. One of the things I've realized recently is that my greatest utility in increasing the adoption and value of XRP (and rippling in general) is in explaining to other just how well thought out the system is. I hope I can start doing that here.
  6. 86 points
    BobWay

    Answer: Wen Moon?

    I don't know. As I've mentioned in my introductory thread, I am bullish on XRP in the long term. I own XRP and I also own Ripple stock. Ripple stock is not publicly traded and is generally much more illiquid that XRP. However, based on other people's reports of selling Ripple stock on the secondary markets, it appears that the price of Ripple stock is closely correlated to the price of XRP. Based on my back of the envelope calculations, the market value of my investments is split about evenly between stock and XRP. If I could, I'd gladly trade my stock for XRP to gain the added liquidity XRP brings. It is important for you to know that I'm not rich enough to be worth kidnapping. It is also important for you to know that if I was a savvy trader I would be. I discovered bitcoin when the price of BTC was 5 to a dollar. I didn't buy it then and haven't traded much over the past 8 years at all. I also had someone point me to Microsoft stock in the very early days. I didn't buy that either. I don't gamble when I go to Vegas and I don't even like to follow the price of XRP and BTC because volatility gives me a huge amount of anxiety. So it should be absolutely clear to the average observer, that no one should take trading or investment advice from me. But if you want to know my personal unsubstantiated opinion I'm happy to tell you. In the long term, I expect Ripple as a company and XRP as an asset to succeed big time. Big time, means dramatically transforming and improving the world's financial systems and the way money works today. I'm expecting XRP's longterm moving average to rise as more more and more transactional liquidity flows through a growing RippleNet. In the short term, I expect XRPs price to be volatile and prone to spikes. I expect this volatility will be true of all other traditional cryptocurrencies as well. The reason I think so, is that it appears to me that speculators are trading multiple cryptocurrencies at a time using similar buy/sell strategies. I don't have any evidence of this, it just seems so to me from watching correlation (not causation) in the price charts. In the long term I expect XRP to be the "winning" cryptocurrency displacing all the others. I've come to this opinion without considering the low level technical details of the coins or their marketing spin. My opinion is based on the observation that all business transactions are circular. And this circle determines how currencies are valued. Here, the concept of circular business transaction means that when Alice buys widgets from Bob in exchange for currency, from Alice's perspective the value of the good equals the value of the currency used to pay for it. That seems obvious to the casual observer, but in the crypto space people rarely talk about it. In thinking about this I realized that the return value flow (the goods or services delivered) defines the value of the currency used to make the payment. Not the other way around. (Perhaps the goods or services have intrinsic value while the currency's value is relative, but that starts to sound like philosophy rather than economics.) So I began thinking about the business cycle along with the full transactional circle. Of course, no business transaction can take place without the agreement of BOTH Alice and Bob. Alice wants something and Bob wants something. The relationship is circular but it is not symmetrical. What Alice wants (the good or services) drives the transaction. What Bob wants (the money) is secondary. So in the business flow, Alice always decides what she wants first. Only then can Bob tell her what he wants in exchange (Alice's cost). So in my mind, the value of a currency is strictly CAUSED by the number of transactional circles it can participate in. If you make the presumption that any given Alice could potentially want something from any given Bob. And also the presumption that any given Bob could deliver to any given Alice. Then return value part of every transactional circle is unconstrained. So then you must focus on how Bob's choice of currency (what Bob wants) constrains the number of circles that can be completed. Which obviously brings us to set theory. That's just a fancy way of saying if Bob wants a currency that Alice doesn't have then they can't do a deal. So if Bob wants EUR but Alice only has USD then the deal can't be done. And if the deal can't be done, the return value (goods or services that don't trade) can't support the value of either USD or EUR. So both of those currencies subsequently becomes worth less than it would have been if that deal could be done. Curiously, if you add a bridge currency like XRP into the transaction in order to complete the transactional circle, then the return value (which now does trade) equally supports the value of all three currencies. Which seems odd so lets do some simple "figurin". Alice wants (X widgets) from Bob. Bob wants (Y EUR) from Mak. Mak wants (Z XRP) from Mark. Mark wanting (Q USD) from Alice completes the transactional circle. So as we stated before by definition if Alice pays then she decided it was a fair (equal) trade. And Mark and Mak thought their deals were fair (equal) as well. So: (X widget) = (Q USD) = (Z XRP) = (Y EUR). But what would happen if both Alice and Bob used XRP? Well then you'd have: (X widget) = (Z XRP) So my lay man's conclusion (I am not an economist) says that XRP being used as a bridge currency supports XRP's value equally as much as XRP being used as a retail currency. But the set of transaction circles that can be created using XRP as a bridge currency is DRAMATICALLY larger than the set of transaction circles that can be created using XRP or any cryptocurrency as a retail currency. And actually, the set of all transactions that can be completed using XRP as retail currency is a proper subset of the transactions that can be completed using XRP as a bridge currency. So to maximize XRP's value, you must focus on the XRP bridge use case. And that is exactly what Ripple is focused on. But, can't the same be said of any cryptocurrency? Meaning if BTC became the de facto bridge currency then it would be the most valuable cryptocurrency. Actually, yes. If that came to pass it would be true. But, I proved to myself that you can't actually get BTC there from here. It just mathematically can't happen. BTC as a bridge currency will always initially be a more expensive transaction path than an alternative path without BTC. And nobody has enough BTC to force (subsidize or incentivize) BTC into that position. My same logic hold for all the currently popular cryptocurrencies. But, I believe, it is actually possible to force XRP into the position of de facto bridge currency. And that is what that patent is about. Of course, I could be wrong in my logic somewhere, or Ripple could fail in their execution, or a million other bad things might happen along the way. So let me repeat, no one should take trading or investment advice from me.
  7. 78 points
    BobWay

    Hi! I'm Bob

    I'm offended. What do you want me to do, put a shoe on my head? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Come on! Let's have some fun here!
  8. 78 points
    BobWay

    Hi! I'm Bob

    I am bullish on XRP and I am hodling XRP as well. I also own some Ripple stock. It is only fair for everyone to know both of those things, so y'all can weight my opinions accordingly. PLEASE NOTE: I have enough XRP for it to be a significant bet for me personally, but not enough to make me worth kidnapping. You would be disappointed.
  9. 77 points
    BobWay

    Hi! I'm Bob

    I'm not sure I'm qualified to use fancy words like "geopolitical" correctly. :-) But there are huge improvements coming to the structure of banking. Please keep in mind that while I think of myself as a reasonably smart guy, I'm by no means smart about everything. However, in my various positions at Ripple, a lot of much smarter people than me showed up in our office to tell me the details of their particular problems. They then left it to me to figure out if Ripple or its technologies could help. That was one of my key contributions to the company. I could almost always figure out a way to deploy Ripple technologies to solve other people's hard problems. So "geopolitically" speaking, one of the weirdest things about banking is how the international relationships are structured. This is true especially among the smaller countries. Take a random made up example. Say Alice lives in Barbados and want to do a business transaction with Bob in Saint Lucia. It is just a standard two party business deal for services rendered. But Alice uses BBD and Bob uses XCD. So how do their banks settle that transaction? Well it turns out in many cases they use USD. That sentence sounds pretty sensible not earth shaking to anyone... But how does that really work? Well it turns out that important banks in Barbados keep "correspondent" accounts with a large US bank. Let's say Citi in this case. And some large bank in Sant Lucia also keeps a correspondent account with a US bank. Let's say BofA in that case. The settlement actually happens by the Barbados bank telling Citi to wire money through the FedWire system to the St Lucia's account at BofA. These requests are transmitted via SWIFT. But the crazy thing is that US law says that both Citi and BofA need to screen the transaction between Alice and Bob for compliance with US laws! And if a bad transaction slips through, both Citi and BofA can be fined huge amounts. So in effect, whether Alice in Barbados can do business with Bob in St Lucia becomes dependent on whether or not US banks want to allow it. Even though the transaction doesn't involve US jurisdiction at all! The side effect of the US bank's risk in these transactions is that they've started closing the correspondent banking accounts for entire countries. The risk is just seen as too high for the reward (fees) that they can charge. This is called in banking jargon, "the de-risking problem". A bridge currency like XRP changes that dynamic dramatically. Transaction that don't involve the US (or other third countries) don't have to travel through their systems to settle. That allows people to stop jumping through third party regulatory hoops and just get one with doing business. I hope that counts as "geopolitical"!
  10. 70 points
    BobWay

    Hi! I'm Bob

    Sorry to answer out of order, but I think this is closely related to what I just got done writing about. I addressed this in my previous post. I would absolutely expect that to happen. Ripple has a team called "Product" and a separate team called "Development". The Ripple development team has created a set of core technologies. Rippled, RippleConnect, the Interledger Protocol, the ILP components (ledger, connector, notary). The Ripple product team has take these technologies and "productized" them for certain markets. (xCurrent, xVia, xRapid) The Ripple marketing and communication team and sales team then promotes these products. Marcom through the Ripple website, press and conferences. The sales team through direct meetings with banks and payment service providers. The marcom efforts are what tend to leak across to this site. What you don't really hear about are the core technology developments and how they underly current products. Once you understand that it becomes easier to guess about future products.So specifically, you hear xRapid is meant for non-banking financial institutions. That is absolutely true at the moment. What I hear is much different. I hear: We've put together glossy fliers to explain some core Ripple technology to payment services providers in these countries who serve these types of customers We're setting up press interviews to get word of this particular growth tactic into our targeted market We've also put together a sales team to approach payment service providers in those countries We've also put together operations and support teams to make sure anything they've deployed doesn't fall over We've also setup a markets team to monitory the prices and trading volume to make sure XRP is cheaper than alternative paths We've also has the markets team analyze alternative rebalancing paths than can compensate for one-way-flow price imbalances Note that all of the things I've bulleted build operation excellence. They don't actually constrain XRPs use to that particular market in perpetuity. At any given moment, the product and marketing teams might decide to take the exact same underlying core technologies and "re-productize" them towards a new set of potential customers. When this happens, all the operational excellence will transfer and the new teams will have a running start as they grow RippleNet. I think the "write a book" side is winning at the moment! What I'm trying to clarify is that banks as gateways is exactly what Ripple is trying to achieve! It just seems like Ripple is taking a rather convoluted path to get there. There are several reasons for that. Early on we tried to sell Banks on the idea of being directly on the RCL (Ripple ledger) and allowing their customers to open accounts (trust lines) with them directly on ledger. The banks pushed back on this pretty hard. It is pretty easy to see why. The Ripple client was a bit hard to use and understand for someone who wasn't a crypto geek. The already had their own "web banking" clients and preferred to keep their customers in their own walled garden. Secondly, the banks really didn't like the concept of a "public" ledger. Banks are used to keeping all their relationships and transactions private. And third, all high volume financial institutions kept asking, "Will it scale?" Questions like, "Can you support every credit card transaction during the Christmas season?" There is no getting around the fact that consensus based systems have limits. If everyone world wide needed to reach agreement that every Chinese lunch CNY payment happened and serialize them into a single globally agreed upon sequence that seems a bit silly if you are a European bank specialized in local EUR payments. Beyond transactional scalability, you need to think about user account scalability. If you want to put 8 billion people on ledger and each of them is going to have a couple of trust lines and maybe market orders then you are looking towards 100 billion ledger entries. That means server get larger and operational costs do as well. User scalability led us toward a "hosted wallet" model. Most customer fiat accounts are kept off RCL at the banks that currently hold them. Only a single RCL account root is needed for the bank. Individual customers. All transaction are processed via RCL using source/destination tags so the institutions can figure out which customers were involved. RippleConnect was designed to protect the customer's privacy even though the ledger transactions among banks were still public. It did away with the need for publicly visible source/destination tags. It implemented the concept of "pre-transaction negotiation" between financial institutions. Institutions communicate off ledger to: Determine who Alice and Bob are Exchange KYC/AML information Decide if all parties are willing to participate in a transaction PRIOR TO moving any money on the RCL This ability to reject a transaction before it happens completely avoids the lossy reversal problem inherent with market based payments. ILP was Ripple's attempt to address the other banks concerns of privacy and scalability ILP based networks use bi-lateral communication between account co-parties. No one else sees those messages. ILP based networks are highly scalable because your server doesn't receive messages for transactions you don't participate in. Every Ripple product you read about is built out of a handful of core technologies. The Ripple consensus ledger (XRPL now). This is useful when you need synchronized transactions and no counter party risk. ILP based components (xCurrent, xVia). These are useful when you need synchronized transactions as well and privacy and scalability. RippleConnect's pre-transaction messaging and payment object. This allows institutions to agree on what they are doing and the costs, prior to moving money. xCurrent, xVia, xRapid all use the payment object and pre-transaction messaging concepts. RippleConnect 1.0-2.0 implemented hosted wallets for RCL RippleConnect 3.0 implemented hosted wallets for ILP If you separate the core technologies from the product/marketing discussion it becomes much easer to see a roadmap that takes us all the way to the end.
  11. 69 points
    BobWay

    Hi! I'm Bob

    Let's start with the easy ones: Please feel free to ask me anything compromising or not. I would really like to know what is on everyones mind. If I can't answer directly I promise to say so. I'll try not to spin ******** just to look like I outsmarted your hard question. That's not why I'm here. Ripple does have a lot of internal communication about what is happening. Mostly this relates to new contracts and meeting internal goals. Some of the "good developments" include the XRP price moving up. Interestingly, that is a bit of a double edged sword internally. The more the price moves, the more distracted people can get from what they are supposed to be working on. So I'd say that there is a lot less XRP price speculation talk inside Ripple than here. But there is probably more talk about the network building wins and how they fit into Ripple's overall strategy then you see on this site. Of course this site is mentioned. I lot of people at Ripple read this site even if fewer post. The same is true for Ripple's own forum. I wish there was more public interaction between employees and the community. But I can also see how difficult it is for the communication team to keep secrets long enough to have a well coordinated press strategy. The remaining two question are awesome, but they require long hard answers. Exactly the kind of answers I like to give. If this was an "ask me anything" I'd probably give the normal platitudes just to move on to the next question and finish up. But instead, I'll tell you why I want to defer answering these in detail so you'll all hold me to "getting around to it". The is really the topic I hoped to discuss on this site long term. You've just spun it in a different direction. I wanted to answer, "What advantages does Ripple have (after all these years) against the headwinds it and every other cryptocurrency must face." This is not a short answer. It presumes that we all have the same understanding about the direction that Ripple is flying and also which way the wind is blowing. That's rarely ever the case with Ripple. I'll expand on this as I can but if you want the nutshell version. The hardest thing in crypto and money in general is compliance. That is underestimated by everyone in the space. Ripple has build out a great team and worked hard over the years in discussing these issues directly with regulators. Few other crypto ecosystems have this experience. The second hardest thing in money is inertia. We think of banks as a single entity. But they're not. They are a bunch of departments headed by individuals. Most of these individuals are great people but each is looking out for their own personal self interest (just like everyone else). If you are the first to implement something new and different at a bank and it goes wrong--you can be fired! On the other hand, if someone else implements something first and it goes right--it's unlikely you'll be fired for implementing it second. So one of the keys is to canvas the world broadly enough to find the people whose problems are bad enough that the potential benefits overwhelm the perceived risks. Ripple has been awesome at identifying areas where the need it greatest. (by the way, that's what I mean by short answer) Again, this is a great question that is part of a much longer discussion. But I'll try to a short answer without sounding like a ... The phrase "xrp adoption" begs the counter question "adoption by whom?" But that's a ...ish answer. Currently, I think XRP adoption among the "right people" for the "right reasons" is getting better and better. In this case, the "right people" are exchanges and the "right reason" is to support xRapid. As xRapid volume increases more and more XRP holders and traders will be drawn into the ecosystem simply because there is money to be made trading the counterflow. Both the additional payment volume and additional traders should tend to put upward pressure on XRP's price. On the other hand, at the end of 2017 there were a lot of the "wrong people" buying XRP for the "wrong reasons". I have to admit that made me happy too! In fact, I'm a bit sad I didn't sell more at the high AND buy it all back at the low. ;-) But I'm pretty sure everyone else feels the same way. But don't mistake poor humor for cynicism. I'm hodling XRP longterm. I have complete confidence Ripple is well positioned to succeed. (Disclaimer: This is my personal opinion. I don't speak for Ripple the company and don't have insider knowledge of their current plans.)
  12. 67 points
    BobWay

    Hi! I'm Bob

    This is a great couple of questions. I feel handicapped by not having a whiteboard to draw on in answering. Excuse my ASCII art... The best way to think of XRP usage is in the context of Alice and Bob. But in the current world where neither Alice nor Bob know anything about XRP. Alice is part of an ecosystem of payment senders. The Alice's of the world work their day jobs and receive and hold their money in the local fiat currency. (Alice) ----@ (Bank A) So in Ascii art, "Alice hold her money in an account at Bank A" Bob is part of an ecosystem of payment receivers. The Bob's of the world also hold their money in their local fiat currency. (Bank A) @----- (Bob). "Bob holds his money in an account at Bank B" In drawing it out, you ALWAYS end up with a graph. That graph tells you if and how money can flow and how much it will cost along each path option. (Alice) ----@ (Bank A) @---- (Mark) ----@ (Bank B) @---- (Bob). "Mark holds accounts at both Bank A and Bank B" He allows money to flow through his accounts. Note: These are the types of diagrams the Ripple graph was intended to explore. So notice that I didn't list XRP anywhere in the above diagram. That seems like it sucks at first. But it is worth realizing that what I've done goes beyond Alice and Bob as individuals. What I've done is connect EVERY customer of Bank A with EVERY customer at Bank B. Meaning I've connected two whole ecosystems. If I replace the banks with something larger, then the payment potential gets larger. (Alice) ----@ (SPEI) @---- (Mark) ----@ (IMPS) @---- (Bob). "Now anyone with a bank account in Mexico can send synchronized payments to anyone in India" But what about XRP? Isn't Mark just going to get rich here trading fiat? Yes, but the first step is to get money moving through OUR system (RippleNet). The least scary way (for banks) to do that is via fiat like they are used to. XRP comes in as an alternate lower cost path. (Alice) ----@ (SPEI) @----------------------- (Mark) ----------------------@ (IMPS) @---- (Bob) We want this path to cost more (SPEI) @---- (Mark) ----@ (XRP) @---- (Mak) ----@ (IMPS) We want this path to cost less You can add that path without upsetting the original topology. If a bank is scared of crypto they can pay more. if they want to pay less, they can route through crypto. I'll leave it to you to decide how long you think banks will want to pay more for transactions. So a good way to think about Ripple's strategy is as multiple teams building out operational volume in different sections of the graph. The xCurrent part of RippleNet is building out operation value on the top line. This includes growing the total pool of "Alices and Bobs". The xRapid part of RippleNet is building out the operation that will assure that the XRP path always costs less. Initially this looks like two disconnected ecosystems, Banks vs Payment Services. But I think it is more insightful to think about it as building operational mastery in different conceptual areas. The payment services xRapid is targeting already use the top line banking ecosystem. They are not closing their bank accounts. They are just augmenting them with additional lower cost paths. One you realize that, it become easer to see how banks can adopt these same lower cost paths with few additional operation changes. With that as background, keep an eye on Japan, India, Mexico, and Canada. Then I'd start looking for large markets in South America and East Asia. As I mentioned in a previous post, any countries that are current clearing payments through US banks, but are at risk of "de-risking" account closure are very good candidates to use XRP. This allows them to dis-intermediate the correspondents looking to de-risk them. Again, I don't have first hand knowledge of which partnerships are farthest along. But that is the way I analyze the larger financial ecosystem as a whole.
  13. 66 points
    BobWay

    Answer: My Dinner with David

    I just wanted everyone to know that Dinner with David (and four other great guys) was awesome! I really did come away pumped after our long discussions. The fact that everyone at the company is in agreement that David & Arthur's original (and later my) "long term" vision for XRP acting as a bridge currency has/is/was/will always be the guiding star forward. At least that is the way I heard it in my head. David can make his own public statements. But what PUMPED ME UP the most was that it is no longer seen as a "long term" vision. It is a focused activity that the company NEEDS to pursue now. But best of all, they ARE all actively pursuing it, NOW! To David, they all seem unified in the realization that, XRP as a bridge currency, has changed from a “WANT to happen” to become a “NEEDS to happen.” Or else TIME will shift from working with Ripple, to working against Ripple. The early Ripplers really, truly BELIEVED in the concept of a cryptocurrency and everything the fine folks on this forum believe. However, Ripple, for all the right reasons, hired the true cream of the crop from the financial services industry. Their experience gave Ripple insight into MANY many ways to improve payments and communication within the financial networks of the world. But they were not intrinsic fans of cryptocurrency. They were open to the idea of course. But still harbored some skepticism. For a long time it was fine with everyone if Ripple was seen as an enterprise banking software company. But that silly pipe dream evaporated as everyone realized how much more value could be created by shifting the focus back to XRP. Ripple still makes great enterprise banking and payments software. That will never stop. But Ripple is most definitely a cryptocurrency focused company again! --- Keep in mind, some of what I said above is perhaps owed to my interpretation of what David said and its personal impact on me, colored by my history with the company. I'm not a reporter quoting David's exact words. He speaks for himself. I'm writing my personal impression of what I heard along with my feelings about it. This may not be the official company position. But know that nothing we talked about was private. At best it was semi-private. We were all in the middle of a crowded restaurant talking pretty loudly. We were also all talking openly to people at the table neither David nor I had ever met before that moment. So I'm not selling out my friend or saying things whispered to me. (David didn’t say this next part.) I personally believe that the company is dramatically revisiting every situation where the software licensing cost was seen as a barrier to entry for institutions. I personally believe that was a case of “false economy”. Ripple the company benefits much more from the customers that small and medium size banks bring, then they do from any licensing fees they could charge the banks. Hearing what David has to say made me ecstatic… (But I want to be clear about why. I don’t want anyone mistaking what I’m saying as, “XRP to the moon, next week.” XRP will go to the moon, absolutely, in my mind. But I have no idea when.) … The reason it made me ecstatic, was that a long while back Stefan nicknamed me Cassandra. In Greek mythology, “Cassandra is cursed to utter prophecies that were true but that no one believed.”mI actually got a substantial raise that on my review said, “I have to rate you highly, because your initial ideas always end up being the ones we implement... wait for it ...after trying every other possible alternative. So truly believe me when I say me being ecstatic was not financially related or something you should trade on. The reason was pure vanity.
  14. 63 points
    BobWay

    Hi! I'm Bob

    Just a quick note to everyone... I'm enjoying all the accolades and the really great welcome I've received here. Thank you all! I'm realizing that I really am quite vain! But really I'd appreciate everyone here being very skeptical. Just know It won't scare me off. This holds for questioning me and my presumptions... Really question EVERYTHING you've ever seen in a press release. I'm not a huge fan of puffery. There are too many awesome technical and ecosystem developments going to waste time puffing silliness. I'm happy to explain thing in either high-level marketing speak, or way too low-level technical talk. I love it when people understand and appreciate the Ripple Ledger, and ILP, and Synchronized Payments, and consensus algorithms, and... It's all quite beautiful once you see it clearly. My role is to help everyone see it clearly. I used to tell all the new Ripplers that I trained, "DON'T presume that you SHOULD BE able to understand everything we say. Lots of the words we use don't actually make any sense. Many phrases have weird connotations that you can't possibly understand. We are horrible about naming things and tend to explain easy things in quirky terms. NOBODY IN BANKING EVER ISSUES YOU A BALANCE! They simply credit your account. But we continue to say these silly things everyday." You can all presume that I think I'm right and also presume that I think I'm telling you the complete truth. But be skeptical! Make me explain it to your satisfaction and bring your own insights. That is where I get the most benefit. The fastest way for me to realize when I'm wrong is to have smarter people than me tell me so! I hate being wrong, but I hate more, being wrong without people telling me so. Anyway, I'm looking forward to some great discussion!
  15. 61 points
    JoelKatz

    Hi! I'm Bob

    No, nothing like that. Community credit is about "money" arising from interactions between peers rather than between issuers and users. For example, suppose you do something for me and I allow you to "owe me one". The idea is for this to act as a currency. Someone who wants something from me (and who I don't trust enough to let them owe me one) wants me to owe them one rather than owing you one. So if they do something for you, you could give them the "marker" you got when you did me a favor and now I owe them a favor. These "markers" can function as a currency. It's kind of like a system where all that exists is balances between people. You may trust me enough to extend me credit. So when I want something from you, you may let me owe you $50 but no more. You now have a +$50 balance and I have a -$50 balance. Now if I want something else from you, I'm out of credit. So I need to find someone who either you owe money to or who will let you borrow from them and give them something for which they in return will restore my credit. So, for example, say you have Alice, Bill, and Charlie. Alice is highly trusted because she has a valuable commercial network and both Bill and Charlie are willing to let Alice owe them money. Alice needs something from Charlie and in exchange Charlie lets Alice owe her $20. So now, Charlie owes Alice $20. Alice can borrow from Bill or Charlie. Now, say Bill wants something from Alice. Alice won't extend Bill any credit because she doesn't trust him. But Bill can give Charlie $20 and in exchange for the $20 Alice owes him and now Alice owes $20 to Bill. Bill can pay Alice $20 with her own IOU. This is precisely how all assets other than XRP work in the XRP Ledger. They're always balances between accounts, either account can extend credit to the other, and balances can "ripple" through accounts. By having XRP in the mix, credit can be settled and restored immediately. For example, Alice can place an offer to give out a $10 IOU for 32 XRP. Now if someone owes Alice $10, they can buy a $10 IOU from Alice and the two IOUs cancel out. This will restore their credit. This is an implementation of Ryan Fugger's original vision of money arising out of community relationships and providing people a network of assets and credits they can contribute to and draw off of. Arthur's genius was to provide a system of gateways to allow the system to be easily connected to external financial systems to help avoid the problem of long paths or unidirectional flows.
  16. 59 points
    BobWay

    Hi! I'm Bob

    I did a lot of analytic work on "XRP as a bridge currency" as I mentioned in a previous post on this tread. I found two distinct upward pressures. 1) new traders buying XRP to enter the market and compete as a market maker. 2) people holding XRP to reduce their international payment cost. (the 1/2 fee argument from above) Vijay and Miguel from Ripple's trading team in New York however created a lot of detailed trading models and simulations. It wasn't that they were trying to create upward pressure on XRP's price, more so that they we trying to understand what actions might but unnecessary downward pressure on price. Of course, so no one would accidentally make those mistakes. Thank you cmbartley and everyone else as well! Actually you all are! One of the things I've been trying to judge is if I should write a book or perhaps start a blog about Ripple, blockchain technology, crypto, money, the future of banking, etc. Does anyone feel something like that would be useful?
  17. 58 points
    BobWay

    Hi! I'm Bob

    I really hate this question because don't actually have a "gambling gene" in my body. Watching the price of XRP go up and down gives me a huge amount of anxiety. I've actually spent the past six months deliberately NOT looking at the price. I had more than enough stress in other areas of my life. But it is a fair question. I think the best answer I can give is to make a parallel with technology. "We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run," Amara's Law. I expect there will be price spikes in XRP and other crypto currencies in the near term. However, it is impossible for me to say what the right price is at any instant. I'd like XRP to set new highs over the next year, but really that is just my wishes. I don't have specific information to say "it will happen because of this, that or the other thing". In reality, all cryptocurrency prices are set by one thing and one thing only. People's perception of the asset's future utility. I personally believe that XRP has a uniquely huge utility value. I'm going to do my best to explain to everyone why I believe that. But do keep in mind that while Ripple the company and XRP the asset are uniquely placed and resourced to succeed. It is possible that individually or collaboratively this all ***** up. I'm going to do my best to make sure that doesn't happen. I hope everyone here will join me in that. --- Now that I re-read the question I see the part that says "internally at ripple"... Several people left fancy jobs and joined Ripple because (I paraphrase) "If we capture even a minor fraction of the international payments market, do you know the value XRP will need to have to support that! Do the math, (really, really big trade number) / 100 billion XRP = Wow! Those sort of conversations always buoyed my spirits and made me smile. But really they also gave me anxiety and made me remember that my job was to "make sure we don't all **** this up!" Curiously, XRP price speculation conversation are a bit of a sore spot internally at Ripple. The reason for this is the strange imbalance in XRP ownership among employees. It turns out how vested in XRP you are as an employee depends on the time period in which you started working for the company. If you started in Ripple's first year or so, you probably bought XRP on your own initiative. If you started after our pivot toward banks and away from the consumer client, you probably didn't buy XRP at all. If you started during the 2017 price run up, you might have bought XRP regularly in your first few months. Keep in mind I bought XRP at around a penny. Then watched it sink over three years to a low of 0.3 cents. That was not too long ago in my mind. So XRP @ 30 cents is up 100X since I took my last vacation. I have to keep that in mind when I'm pining away for XRP @ $3.
  18. 57 points
    jbjnr

    Q4 analysis/prediction

    Dear XRPChat, As the Ripple Q4Markets Report is imminent, I'd like to present an update to my previous analysis of ripple sales (in thread linked here) With a focus this time, on Q4 sales from 2018-10-01 to 2018-12-31. Part I The previous findings were that Ripple has been selling approximately 3% of daily volume and this trend appears to have continued without any significant change. I shall confine my plots to the period 2018-04-01 (2018-Q2) onwards, as this appears to be a time when a strategy shift occurred in the xrp sales and data appears consistent after this time. The up-to-date plot of daily sales (from the account previously referred to as RP2) to tagged (presumed to be exchange) accounts is and the correlation to daily volume is Which maintains the finding that around 1/35 = ~3% of daily volume is being sold off with the previous days volume (shift =1day) used as the reference. NB. Using the time period 2018-04-01 from cryptocompare.com to today as reference. I had previously hypothesized that ripple are selling xrp not only from their warchest of escrowed tokens, but also from founders/staff accounts since the declared sales of xrp in the Q2/Q3 reports do not tally with the summed totals I found in sales from RP2. This seems entirely reasonable and I decided to investigate this further. Two further pieces of information are useful. The first is that as pointed out in a recent comment by hodor - in the Q3 report, ripple state that their programmatic sales are 0.17% of market total (and total sales 0.43%). This is quite a significant difference from the 3% sales I have calculated. Either Ripple are using a different source of volume figures for their data, or I am not looking at the right numbers/wallets. Perhaps if I take only a subset of the 3% sales, they will match the numbers reported by ripple. In the previous analysis thread, I did not manage to find a good match between ripple's declared figures and the ones I presented - to try to improve this, I looked at the wallets that supply RP2 with the xrp that is sold daily. There are 9 of them, and I have labelled them as RD1, RD2, ... RD9 (for Ripple Daily 1-9). The payments from April until now are It's clear that they follow a similar pattern to the overall sales in the earlier plot since these are just the payments into the RP2 account that are then distributed to exchanges. Perhaps the 9 accounts represent different sources of xrp that correspond to warchest/founders/charity/other wallets that contribute to daily sales. This is a breakdown of the payments from the 9 into RP2 for recent quarters And let us remind ourselves of the ripple sales as published in the quarterly reports We are interested in 2018 Q2/Q3 programmatic sales and if any of the accounts RD1-9 match the figures quoted. The answer is "no", but perhaps several of the accounts together combined match the figures we are looking for. Summing RD1 RD2 RD3 RD9 gives a quite close result for Q2/Q3, here are the numbers The totals are 57.56 and 66.71 compared to 56.55 and 65.27. Those numbers are just 1.7% and 2.2% out for Q2 and Q3 respectively. Perhaps those are the accounts that are feeding the programmatic sales. If that is a correct assumption, then 2018-Q4 programmatic sales should be $83.47m. Allowing for +/-2.5% we would have a range of $81.4m to $85.6m. Actually, I suspect the number will be a little less because RD1,RD2,R3 look like good candidates, but why add RD9 in Q3 which had zero sales prior to then. Removing RD9 from the sum increases the error and reduces the total so I would not be surprised if the figure was a little lower. But I'll stick to $83.5m as a prediction for Q4 sales. One thing that troubles me is that the figures I get for programmatic sales using RD1,2,3,9 amounts to 1/57.33 = 0.1744 or 1.7% of the volume (which is about right, since we are only including half the accounts in our programmatic sales estimate that was ~3%). But in the Ripple Q3 report, they state that they sold only 0.17% of volume programmatically. And based on the figures presented in the report, it looks as though the volume data they are using is much higher than that sourced by myself, so I shall revisit these figures with better volume data. The average daily volume from their data is >$400M daily, which seems about right. It may be that the /v2/network/external_markets API can provide figures that improve the correlations with sales and give a better match to the %volume figures. Part II I said earlier that two further pieces of information were useful. One was the sales % numbers in the markets report, the second is that we do have extra data that might help us identify direct sales as well as programmatic ones. The extra data is the xrp distribution figures. Ripple provide data on how much xrp is in existence, how much is distributed/undistributed and escrowed. If we know how much xrp there is in April 2018 and we know how much is sold, escrowed and destroyed etc, then whatever remains in the difference between distributed and undistributed must be xrp that ripple has either loaned out or sold OTC. If it is undistributed, then it is part of the monthly escrow release but still sitting in a ripple wallet - if it is distributed, then it has been 'used' in some capacity. Lets have a look at the raw distribution data, here I've added 3 columns, 'remains' is just a sanity check to make sure that the totals are consistent (total-(escrowed+dist+undist)) and is zero or occasionally 1 due to roundoff errors. burned is the change in total each month and diff is the change in distributed. The other columns are as read from https://data.ripple.com/v2/network/xrp_distribution date distributed escrowed total undistributed remains burned diff 2018-01-07 39029058672 54000000024 99992855589 6963796893 0 NaN NaN 2018-01-14 39029001738 54000000024 99992777885 6963776123 0 77704.0 -56934.0 2018-01-21 39029011222 54000000024 99992725510 6963714263 1 52375.0 9484.0 2018-01-28 39032356092 54000000024 99992664799 6960308683 0 60711.0 3344870.0 2018-02-04 39094802192 53900000024 99992622540 6997820324 0 42259.0 62446100.0 etc etc ... when plotted the data for 2018 looks like the following graph. Note that we see drops in distributed XRP when it is placed in escrow (or potentially when large amounts are burned, but this is very small since the cap on transaction fees was introduced after a user lost 100k+ xrp in accidental fees). If we resample the distribution data to end of month totals, subtract the total distributed at the start of the period (giving zero initial distribution at the start of April 1st 2018, = start of Q2), then subtracting what we believe has been sold (using the figures we know from part I above) for each month, then the left over should be the amount that has been distributed by ripple, but not declared as part of programmatic sales. It should be 'direct sales' + xrp distribution from 'any other business' (sch as incentivisation of market makers and loans of xrp etc). The next graph shows the distributed xrp starting at zero on 1st April, with monthly and quarterly final amounts alongside. Note that as the distribution data is only published weekly, there can be big differences between the month end resampled and original data. For example, the data for the first week of Dec 2018 is 500m higher than the previous entry during the last week of Nov, and so the monthly Nov fig is much lower than the true data. Fortunately no big differences exist at quarterly boundaries so we don't need to make any adjustments to the data or our sampling. Previously we showed the quarterly sales from RD1,2,3,9 in $$$, the sales in terms of xrp tokens are so we should subtract those from the quarterly distribution numbers which are -------------------- Quarterly distribution -------------------- date distributed(since start Q2) 2018-06-30 146046852 2018-09-30 881583920 2018-12-31 1924354618 which gives Q2 65m, Q3 583.7m, Q4 1042.7m as the unaccounted for XRP for the 3 quarters we are interested in. Ripple have told us that in Q2 their direct sales were $16.87m - but we do not know what price they were sold at. The best we can do is use a flat rate based on the sales we do know about. In Q2 we found 81m xrp sold for $57.56m so we estimate that 23.7m xrp would have sold for $16.87m. This gives us (if we repeat the process for Q3) Q2 programmatic = 81m, direct = 23.7m, mystery remainder = 41.3m xrp Q3 programmatic = 151.8m, direct = 221.1m, mystery remainder = 583.7-221.1 = 362m xrp for Q4 we have Q4 programmatic = 196.3m, unaccounted for 866.5m of which some is going to be direct sales and some is unaccounted for. I had hoped that by conducting this little experiment, I would be able to recover the direct sales numbers from ripple, but unfortunately the numbers don't add up. There is still xrp being released that is unaccounted for. In Q2, it's 41m xrp, in Q3 it jumps to 362m and in Q4 we do not know the direct sales figures yet, but it could be anywhere from 0-866m xrp which would translate into a very large figure in $$$. Probably some of the xrp bound to the R3 settlement is included in this number, and probably the direct sales for Q4 will be very high (I'd guess over $100m). We will know soon and I will update my calculations when the Q4 report is released. Conclusion. TL;DR : My best guess for Q4 figures is between $81m and $86m for programmatic sales, over $100m for direct sales and a ton of xrp being loaned out, or distributed as part of other agreements. As usual, all my numbers are guesswork and as soon as I click send, I'll find loads of mistakes, please consider this analysis as a simple diversion from other mundane aspects of life. edit : deleted an image pasted by accident and fixed some typos
  19. 54 points
    BobWay

    Hi! I'm Bob

    Sure, full disclosure wouldn't hurt. No, I'm not working for Ripple in any capacity at the moment. Not that I'm against doing so (do you know how much my COBRA insurance costs!) If they'd like me to come back and do exactly what I'm doing now for pay (or even just insurance) I'd be happy to do so. But that position would have to come with the independence to say and do what I personally think is best for the community (and myself). I retired from Ripple for three reasons: Stefan was leaving to start Coil with many of the others from the research team that I was on. I really love Stefan. We are the best of friends! We both have huge respect for each other's skills. Together we make a great team. He sees the world one way. I seem to see the world from exactly the opposite direction. (like looking through different ends of a telescope.) But together we manage to synthesize our different initial viewpoints into amazingly unexpected final products. But Coil is in SF and I was/am happy to be back in Texas. Stefan had a specific vision he wanted to pursue and I knew that and support it. I have a different specific vision I want to pursue and he knows that and supports it. So I did not want to go work at Coil and distract them. But I'm not ruling out collaborating in the future. Ripple offered me two great options: I could stay working remote in another position I could take a very generous (in my scale) severance package. I had recently been diagnosed with prostate cancer and I've been struggling with diabetes. Ripple didn't know this at the time. I chose to take the nice severance package (Thank You Ripple!) and concentrate on my health. Since that time I've had radiation treatment for the prostate cancer and that seem to be responding nicely. I've also been (with huge help from my wife) changing my diet and getting more exercise. My weight is starting to fall and my glucose levels are responding nicely. Of course, leaving also gave me the opportunity to pursue my "new crypto moonshot" as well. It turns out that will require me to step up publicly as a leader in order to promote that project. I'm not particularly comfortable being a "public frontman". So coming here gives me the opportunity to practice (pretending) being comfortable in public. And it also allows me to serve my own long-term personal financial interest as well by promoting Ripple and the RCL (I'm not a fan of the name XRPL) So that's all about me. Let's talk a little more about Ripple. As I mentioned in an early post, I was the first integration engineer for OpenCoin. I worked on the business development team for Patrick Griffin. My role was to talk to EVERYONE who was interested in doing anything with the Ripple ledger. I'm not inherently smart about the things I'm telling y'all. I'm only informed because very smart people kept asking to me with us to discuss their problems. My job was to figure out how to help all of them, no matter the industry, at that time. So if you go back to 2013 or 2014 with Ripple, you probably know me. I was also asked by Nilesh Dusane to join his brand new sales team as the first sales engineer. We had worked together in BD while I was the only integration engineer. It turns out we split my original position into three separate departments. (Integration Engineering, Sales Engineering, and Customer Support) So I was happy to jump in and support Nilesh. He was the one that proposed that Ripple "try to sell our system" rather than give everything away for free. He postulated that having a zero price was actually a barrier to entry for banks rather than a facilitator. He formed the sales team to test that hypothesis. He was absolutely correct! In my role of sales engineer I talked to almost every bank and banker we could get a meeting with. Sales is an interesting process. The grownup decision makers talk and decide there might be value in the proposition. But often the people high enough to green light a project don't have enough technical foundation to know if they are being bulls***ed. So at some point during the sales process, the grown ups always say something like, "It all sounds good, but I'd like you to talk to our technical lead and see...(reasons change here) ...but what is really doing is calling in a tech expert to play "tech jeopardy" with me in order to sniff out whether what we promised is real. The only way I know to play tech jeopardy without being called out for bulls*** is completely honestly. Sometimes painfully honestly. Because really, I'm not a sales guy, I'm an integration guy. I DIDN"T want to do a deal if the goals were impossible for the integration team to meet. Did I mention that I was very outspoken within Ripple? I believe in being brutally honest with every Rippler. Even about our warts. This is because everyone commits to work WAY TOO HARD when they come onboard. You really need to make a strong personal commitment and you can't make it based on bulls***. So curiously, some here might get a laugh out of this, while I talked to crazy numbers of people in my official capacity as sales and integration engineer... ...I was never officially allowed to speak to the public or press about Ripple! Go figure huh? I think the term I heard was loose cannon. Maybe because I was boring here. So, 100% no. My discussion here is not Ripple sanctioned.
  20. 53 points
    not a 100% word by word - i wrote it down by listening, but i like that dialogue between Brad and Joseph Lubin (Ethereum ConsenSys) @ about 24 min mark Brad: "the XRP Ledger is more decentralized than mining-based solutions (because of the nature of PoW)..." Joseph Lubin (Ethereum): "... talking about decentralized... but you do sell XRP regulary right...?" Brad: "... we're transparent about it... how much do you sell?" Joseph Lubin: "Ehm..." Brad: "...transparency and maturity in this market are critical...” Joseph: "sure" Brad: "there are many other ecosystems not being transparent...no one knows what happens in those ecosystems..." Joseph: "...but they are decentralized about the ownership of the token..." Brad: " ...if its a mining-based protocol, then centralization is based upon mining control, not ownership..." Joseph: ehm one small aspect of the governance of the ecosystem could be considered centralized if you talk about the mining aspect... sure" silence Moderator to Joseph: "Joe it's been said that you are one of the biggest ethereum holders... how do you manage treasury in consensys..." Joseph: "(laughs) ehm... i guess no comment..." ..."we manage our treasury like a company would manage it`s treasury..." Brad (jumps in): "...i find it interesting that ripple gets attacked for being transparent... actually the next xrp market report will come out sometime later in this week... but, because we share that information we get attacked for it while other platforms don't share that information and so they are insulated from the same critiques... i think in the dictionary it's called hypocrisy... i'm not 100% sure, but it's close" Joseph: "...ehm we are a private company..." Brad (jumps in again): "Ripple is a private company too"
  21. 53 points
    blog URL: https://xrpcommunity.blog/early-warning-adoption-signals-detected/ A tectonic shift in the market is well under way! Find out more in my latest blog. 𝙍𝙞𝙥𝙥𝙡𝙚 𝙉𝙚𝙬𝙨: AMB Crypto reports strange wallet activity and ledger volume; and Brad Garlinghouse and Ross Leckow discuss ASEAN and regulation. 𝙓𝙍𝙋 𝙉𝙚𝙬𝙨: WietseWind rolls out XRParrot to European users; TOK exchange announces support for XRP; A massive SWISS investment fund pledges to spend 30% of its money on purchases of XRP; Crypto.com offers a prepaid MCO Visa card allowing you to spend your zerps; XRP Scan goes live; and @cz_binance sends out a strange tweet to XRP Community Hope you enjoy this latest edition: Please leave any feedback below, and feel free to share my blog on any other platform you wish! - And thanks for doing so! My blog announcement links on other forums: Twitter Reddit r/Ripple Reddit r/CryptoCurrency Reddit r/CryptoMarkets Reddit r/xrp Reddit r/RippleTalk Reddit r/alternativecoin Bitcointalk - alt coin sub forum Bitcointalk - XRP speculation thread
  22. 52 points
    TiffanyHayden

    Tiffany Hayden

    I think it's strange how much people care about this. After carrying kids around on my right hip for so long, I am used to using my left hand for things. Since I don't actually have a camera crew that follows me around, that's how left-handed pictures turn out. I don't like posting pictures of myself nearly as much as people like to chide me for. I don't like it all. I hate it. Try and find a picture of me in my 20's or even in my early 30's. Do you think any woman thinks "Now that I'm 41, it feels like a good time to start taking pictures of myself to share online in a predominantly (young) male industry, filled with vitriol, that scrutinizes every breath I take, and actively hates me?" No. I do it DESPITE that. Contrary to what dude's with middle-aged, single mom fetishes may think, I post pictures for the women. Like attracts like. I want to be visibly present and this is the best that I can do. People who like to talk about all of the attention I crave are never able to explain why, then, have I turned down every single interview request over the years? I push myself to be as personable as I can be because I want to be understood and I want to be visible to the other "regular people" in the world. Agreed. I was embarrassed at some of the comments and behavior coming from XRP supporters. It would be analogous to one flavor of Bitcoin making fun of another flavor of Bitcoin because their mempool was full. Same thing could happen to you, dude. Even more importantly, those people failed to recognize that the Stellar network SUCCEEDED, as designed, and stopped forward progress until it was safe. That was a victory for anyone championing Consensus over PoW. Thank you for this. Up until recently, I have never *only* liked XRP. One of the main features of the XRPL that originally attracted me to it is that it's currency agnostic. I am uncomfortably open about things so people don't have to speculate. I try really hard to do the right thing, knowing full well that not only are strangers online watching closely and judging, but my 2 kids as well. They are teenagers now and I have to atone for all that I do. They read every word written about me. I am sad at the way Bitcoin turned out. I didn't get involved in crypto to make a financial investment. I have always been poor. When the financial/housing crisis hit, I had a baby and a toddler and I felt terrified and helpless. The houses on every side of me went into foreclosure. They stayed empty for a long time. When somebody bought the house next door, they bought it for $12,000. When learned about Bitcoin, I latched on like it was a life raft. This is the Bitcoin that I was out evangelizing for: The entire article is good but it turned out to be ********. I was hopeful when Bitcoin forked that there was a chance to salvage it, but then Craig Wright showed up and there was just more infighting than I have the energy and capacity for, mostly because being an XRP supporter has been so damn taxing as well. And it's gotten worse lately. Nonstop **** like this. I don't know why, but as crypto enthusiasts poor into this space and grow in their knowledge, thoughts and reasoning, new XRP supporters have taken a different route, embracing ignorance and deciding to hunt cartoon bears and create conspiracies instead. Jed reached out to me, in a sincere way, because he felt misjudged by me and wanted a chance to be heard. I have no reason to hate him and everything he touches into eternity. Life is short and I don't enjoy fighting with people or holding onto hate. The second news broke about Steller and IBM, everybody was trying to make it sound like a loss for Ripple/XRP. Good news for Stellar doesn't mean bad news for Ripple and vice versa. I'm not willing to spend one second getting into an XLM/XRP ******* match. And I don't want to participate in the cheering that goes on whenever another project stumbles. I learn by doing and I'm here to learn. Because, for the most part, if one of you gets screwed over, nobody will care. I have a small platform and try to use it to amplify the voices that don''t get heard. I disagree. Neither my opinion of Ripple nor XRP has changed. It's because I am secure and feel confident in XRP that I don't feel the need to hate everything that isn't XRP. There are lots of cool projects popping up everyday. I think it's exciting and I definitely want to be a part of it. I don't view crypto as a spectator sport.
  23. 52 points
    BobWay

    Hi! I'm Bob

    Yes, Ripple employees are allowed to speak on social media. David has been very active. I do have more freedom to talk about this stuff now, but mostly because I have much less actual work to do. But let me take the question a little more seriously because I know it seems like Ripple doesn't care about this community. One of the reasons you don't hear more from rank and file Ripplers (besides them being heads down working) is that Monica Long heads up a mind bogglingly effective MarComs team. Internally at Ripple I was known for being pretty outspoken about my opinions. My highest complement to Monica was that, "I have no idea how you do what you do. But you exceed my expectations by such a wide margin that I'm actually comfortable not knowing the details. I can't say that about any other groups in the company." Yes, I'm a detail freak. I expect to be able to grok everything. But one of the secrets to Monica's magic is that she has to give great stories to great reporters and great publications. The conundrum is, no story is "great" if it's already been told before. So there a lot of times when news is spread internally though company meetings, but everyone knows to keep it under raps so Monica and team can do their thing. So from an employee perspective, what is there to talk about. The most interesting stuff is what you just learned, but that is under embargo. Once the embargo has been lifted, everyone has already read a better written version of what you wanted to say published by a more authoritative source. So that makes you boring and yesterday's news. The except of course are geeky technical questions. Employees are generally happy to answer those. But of course what everyone really wants to know is "Should I buy XRP now? Or should I sell XRP now." Not only do employees risk trouble with either answer, it also reminds them they have no ideas which would be the correct trade. That tends to make them doubly uncomfortable. --- The second reason the community hears less from the company now than in the early days, is (in my opinion) that the company isn't sure what they'd like you to do. Of course the company might benefit if everyone buys and hodls more and more XRP, but Ripple has never encouraged people to do so. And now that Ripple doesn't operate a public client, it is hard for even me to tell people how they should use the system or what they should do with it. It would be great (from my perspective) if more people started business which interacted directly with the XRP ledger, but knowing what I know about financial regulation, it's not clear that I know what types of business to suggest. When you see the Xpring initiative think of that as a type of community outreach. From my perspective the Ripple community needs a really great consumer focused client. That is table stakes to give people the "rippling" education they need in order to recognize new XRPL based business opportunities. From my perspective this is all FUD theater staged by people who have bet on other cryptocurrencies. I wouldn't expect to see any particular XRP specific clarity announcements. The law is really funny in this regard. (IANAL) The law doesn't really care what something is. It cares what you tell people it is. So for example, if you create an ERC20 alt coin token, then tell people that then need to get in now because the price is going to go up. You've made it a security. What's more interesting is, say you haven't actually made that ERC20 token yet. It's just a figment of your imagination. But you go ahead and tell people they need to get in now because long term you are going to create token and then give them some and the price is going to go up. Well you've still created a security even though you haven't created a token yet. On the other hand, FinCen has issued guidance (section c) about users of virtual currency and also some clarification more recently. It's worth reading the last page to see that the SEC or the CFTC or FinCEN might be the controlling regulator depending on "the facts and circumstances" of the case. My personal opinion is that Ripple as a company has worked very hard comply with the laws regulating every possible interpretation of "the facts and circumstances". There are compliance teams and lawyers and specialty outside council keeping everyone away from even the grey areas. There have been stories published in the press about Ripple's various meetings with regulators and Ripple participation on various financial system committees. At this point I think regulators and other authorities see more potential benefit in Ripple than in potential harm. But that's just my personal opinion. Please keep in mind, I'm not asking you or encouraging you to buy XRP or to use Ripple technology in any way. Those are decisions everyone should make based on their own personal finances, appetite for risk, and/or need for awesome new payment technology. All I want you to take away from this, is that the team at Ripple isn't a bunch of naive idiots. I haven't met anyone who wants to risk jail time in exchange for a get rich quick scheme. Everyone I've met respects the law and feels a duty to stay compliant. That's probably all I'll say about that.
  24. 51 points
    BobWay

    Hi! I'm Bob

    Just to give as well as I get... Anyone can accumulate fat stacks of XRP. But can you accumulate THIS! If you look closely at the two pictures, you notice that I'm wearing the original Ripple t-shirt from 2013.
  25. 50 points
    Hodor

    Welcome To Our World, Bob

    Blog URL: https://xrpcommunity.blog/welcome-to-our-world-bob/ Bob Way, a Ripple alumnus, indicated he's starting work on an ambitious new project! Learn more about him - and his new project - in today's blog. I hope you enjoy the read: Please feel free to share my blog with a friend or share it on any other platform - and thanks for doing so! My blog announcement links on other platforms: Twitter Reddit r/Ripple Reddit r/CryptoCurrency Reddit r/CryptoMarkets Reddit r/xrp Reddit r/RippleTalk Reddit r/alternativecoin Bitcointalk - alt coin sub forum Bitcointalk - XRP speculation thread
  26. 50 points
    BobWay

    Hi! I'm Bob

    OK, in the spirit of txID or it didn't happen. I submit: 4E1D594E045A92CBFDB6BC1698D3AD50F939B51D4DA0B6F1FD3F34D3CF2D7482 I noticed some unnamed individual sent me a XRP yesterday. So I sent it back to him. If you are still suspicious, I set the destination tag to "23155" which matches my profile on this site. https://www.xrpchat.com/profile/23155-bobway/ I also set the invoice ID to: 486920585250436861742E636F6D2049276D20426F6257617920202020202020 If you are too lazy to decode that yourself it says: Hi XRPChat.com I'm BobWay
  27. 50 points
    BobWay

    Hi! I'm Bob

    I do understand Codius. I'll start a thread to talk about it in the appropriate form when this thread dies down enough for me to get out of my chair. But just to get you started, you probably know that Stefan, Ben, and Peter founded a new company called Coil. What you probably don't know is that the name Coil was Ben's idea. It is a contraction of "Codius" and "ILP".
  28. 50 points
    This is what I have written about this on our Discord today... ”Banks use software only for trading and ledger only when money moves in or out of their bank or consortium. Orderbooks are used in-house and XRP is owned by that unity. Giving value to all currencies they operate in one central exchange. And only when operating with other bank, XRP needs to move. Other than that, it just stays there and gives value to transactions One step in, one step out. If someone uses fiat in that system as base, it can’t be executed since it would give arbitrage to it, because it is on wrong side of the ticker. Using XRP only blocks that, when there is only one market globally in many exchanges and xRapid sources liquidity everywhere and routes payments using cheapest option. That closed ledger is just an orderbook where all related banks use XRP to convert fiat to fiat inside their banking network. Like Santander that operates in many currencies uses it as one pool of liquidity to transfer the whole value to another account in another currency. All those banks own some portion of that XRP but they pool it to be used where it is needed. Balance sheets show the total possessions for each bank whenever they want to settle that situation.” this is extremely good news for us and for banks, since the more they make cross-border payments inside their own banking network in many currencies, the bigger the savings when they hodl enough XRP, because they save the cost and time of entering ledger. Transactions and transition of value are in milliseconds, XRP is not burnt at all, and TPS can be as much as their trading software can handle, but easily hundreds of thousands per second. This makes banks want to buy and hold XRP because everything is valued in XRP and not in any fiat. XRP as counter currency, as The Base, means that it is needed always when making a conversion because counter currency is the ONLY used asset whenever something needs to be bought. XRP the Standard
  29. 49 points
    Most recently I’ve heard many different descriptions of the down trend the crypto markets are experiencing and I’ve noticed some very interesting behavior. First off as a futures trader and investor I’ve been witness to many downtrends in a variety of markets. Markets change over time which is very much like the seasons but without the comforting predictability. I personally think of these down trends as draughts in the market which can cause an exorbitant amount of stress on the people participating in it. It’s interesting to observe how other species such as Chimpanzee’s react to this environmental stress and how there are many commonalities. Most striking is how older chimps who have weathered such draughts in the past differ from the younger members of the group. Most react with intermittent bouts of outright panic expending much needed energy. Aggression and outbursts of screeching from tree tops and flinging feces are common. There is now evidence of ritual behavior such as stacking rocks and marking tress which increases during times of stress. Older chimps however adopt a much different approach. The past experiences of similar draughts give an advantage knowing that with time this environmental stress will subside and nourishing times will return. Some advice from an old chimp. Stop flinging feces at others it’s just nasty. The constant screeching is not necessary and no one is really listening. Pay no attention to the chimps with dousing rods predicting next day price explosions as it only leads to disappointment. Take comfort and appreciate the wise members of the group that are providing much needed advice and research. Find some shade under a bush and take a nap. It will rain soon enough.
  30. 49 points
    jag216

    This is fine.

    I've been giving a lot of thought over to market reviews and in particular I've been reflecting on the market turbulence we've been observing here in the U.S. and I have to say I've been really impressed with the solid fundamentals we have beneath the XRP asset. I originally got into XRP as a safe haven to lock in my winnings from a BTC/LTC pump phase, noting how little fluctuations we were having in the coin back when it was $.15-$.17. It was satisfying then, even when we had a scary dip into $.13 territory. It is just as satisfying now, in my opinion. I have been thrilled with the ecosystem that has developed and the competitive inspiration they are providing in the fintech space. I think it speaks to the facility and quality of the platform when coders like weitsewind can pull together quality applications with such short development cycles. I have a bag that has always hoped for $10-15 as its long term goal, hoping I would cash out my seed investment in the first two years or so. I won't complain if I see $50 or more, but I certainly don't expect it unless we engage a sovereign debt crisis with inflation that hits double digits. The response XRP has had to this recent reshuffling has exceeded my expectations. Our trading ratios against other leading currencies have clearly decoupled and recoupled. The standards that have been set in terms of those relationships are remarkable. It is rare to have that kind of ratio shift between well established currencies. I can't speak to the negativity surrounding the failure of XRP or Ripple the company to meet other people's expectations. In an unregulated market as new as this one is, I never would have expected to find an achored asset, but I'm glad I found XRP when I did, and I am very thankful that, when it comes to the asset and the Ripple team, the worst I have to accept in terms of 'bad behavior" is slippage in hopeful milestones on a calendar. It isn't until we see millionaires act like spoiled children that we can appreciate having adults in the space who has vision beyond their own personal ego and success. It's clear to me that the digital asset space has a lot of greedy disingenuous actors who threaten the health of the ecosystem as a whole. For my part, I have tried (aside from a bit of memeing) to keep my head out of the drama and focus primarily on the labor of folks who are really working hard to change the game instead of getting played by the game. But after this whole debacle I felt the need to express my appreciation for having level headed folks in the space working for Ripple and other companies like SBI who are trailblazing the future of finance and trying to do so in a way that is responsible and accessible to as many as possible. Their ability to work through the noise and not give in to ravenous speculators is admirable. I believe the quality of their partnerships and the vision of their network is reflected in the stability of XRP, and I believe that value will increase with the quality of the relationships that are forged around it. At the end of the day, having good culture in a company is as important to its success as having good tech. From what I have observed, Ripple and the XRP founders have developed both. I hope it continues for at least a decade before morphing into the next big thing(s). This is fine.
  31. 48 points
    BobWay

    Hi! I'm Bob

    I wrote about how I got to Ripple in my most recent treatise above. The rest of the story is on linked-in and some on my vanity blog. (Start the blog from the very beginning if you are really interested. It tries to tell a coherent story. It's not finished yet though. Maybe I'll get to that if I ever get finished here. Glad to hear that you find Ripple, and blockchain fascinating. I do too! You are never too old to learn to program if you find yourself compelled to do so. But I'd say you are too old to start learning to program with the intention of finding a paid entry level programming position. That's just the nature of programming, it isn't the least bit "fun" for most people. So if you haven't been fascinated by it in the past, don't expect an epiphany by force to happen. Entry level programming positions aren't necessarily fun, even if you find programming itself fascinating. But don't be discouraged. The Ripple and blockchain ecosystems don't need you to be a programmer. They need you to be an intelligent experienced "grown-up" that understand the needs of the real-world. This is the most valuable skill in the space. You need to deeply understand WHAT the programming geeks made these systems do. You don't need to be will versed in the behind the scenes programming magic of HOW they made the systems do it. The biggest need is to take a real-world value creating business idea, and integrate it to the Ripple DLT or other blockchain technology in order to help that business REALIZE the value it is creating. That sounds hand wavy and vague. So let me give you an example from your own field of education. Many people absolutely LOVE educating others. (I'm having fun here!) But what's the hardest part about the profession of trying to do so... ...well, getting paid, of course! For many people, being an educator means going to work for a big bureaucracy, jumping through hoops, doing paperwork and earning less than you feel that you are worth for doing so. Why? Because the payment system for teachers is Broken As Designed (BAD). So make a new one! Take micropayments, or crypto, or swap teaching hours for bill payment. A fascinating thing for you to wrap your head around is what Stefan and team are doing at Coil inventing "streaming money". As an educator, you probably get paid twice a month, or worse once a month. But WTF! They want you to show up and teach everyday. Isn't it a pain in the ass to have to wait for others (you employer) to settle up on the money they owe you? Your grocery bills and other expenses don't wait on you to feel ready to pay for them. So why should you wait on others who owe you? Streaming money is a CRAZY idea, but as you start thinking about it, people tend to go "hell yeah!" The reason you get paid monthly or bi-monthly is that accounting used to be hard. Banking was hard. People needed time to calculate how much you worked, do the withholding send transactions to the processor for direct-deposit or printing check. Submitting the withholding to the appropriate agencies. But now computers do all of that really fast. And money moves faster. So start to think, "Why couldn't I get a direct deposit into my bank account everyday instead of every two weeks?" There really isn't a technical reason you couldn't. And if you get really wonky you start to think, hey! What about getting paid every hour! Or even every minute! How would that change my life? And what if my Uber driver didn't have to wait. And what if the YouTube author of the video I just watched didn't have to wait to get paid. And Holy ****! What if I was an educator via video and my students streamed money to me! F*** the bureaucracy I have to deal with everyday! Then you realize, I know lots of educators that feel the same way as I do, but they don't know anything about blockchain or streaming money. So what if I start a project to benefit us all? There has to be some fresh out of school jr programmers who would jump at the chance to help! That's the way I think you and many of the people on this sight should be thinking. Sorry this turned into such a huge rant.
  32. 48 points
    JoelKatz

    Hi! I'm Bob

    I think that any technology can be used for good or evil. Obviously, I would hate to see social credit develop in that direction. I was definitely one of those people who believed that the Internet would inherently democratize the spread of information. Until a few years ago, i was thrilled with the idea that anyone could publish a web page or start a blog and get a huge following if people wanted to hear what they had to say. Seeing the gatekeepers of information lose their power was a wonderful thing. As you all know, in the past decade or so, new gatekeepers emerged with a small number of companies not only having huge control over what information can and cannot be easily shared but also having a revenue model based on gathering massive amounts of information that it has become impractical to keep private. I'd hate to repeat this pattern with the democratizing of the flow of funds and hope we can correct this with the flow of information over the next decade or so.
  33. 48 points
    Hodor

    We Will Prevail

    Blog URL: https://xrpcommunity.blog/we-will-prevail/ XRP will prevail: I describe why, and then cover all the latest news impacting the best digital asset ever made. 𝐆𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐥 𝐂𝐫𝐲𝐩𝐭𝐨 𝐍𝐞𝐰𝐬: The Democrats and Republicans join together to make sure the United States continues to play a part in blockchain tech and crypto. 𝐑𝐢𝐩𝐩𝐥𝐞 𝐍𝐞𝐰𝐬: Brad Garlinghouse sits down with Monica Long for the final AMA of 2018; Ripple releases a video compendium summarizing points in the AMA; Ripple submits its response to the October request by the Federal Reserve for proposals of a real-time gross settlement system (RTGS); and a video of Cory Johnson from Slush Singapore is released by an XRP fan. 𝐗𝐑𝐏 𝐍𝐞𝐰𝐬: The XRP Toolkit adds support for user-created escrows; and Coinfield adds more XRP pairings, extending the reach of XRP. I hope you enjoy the read: Please feel free to share my blog with a friend or share it on any other platform - and thanks for doing so! 🎄🎅🎄 My blog announcement links on other platforms: Twitter Reddit r/Ripple Reddit r/CryptoCurrency Reddit r/CryptoMarkets Reddit r/xrp Reddit r/RippleTalk Reddit r/alternativecoin Bitcointalk - alt coin sub forum Bitcointalk - XRP speculation thread
  34. 48 points
    Hodor

    We are Early to the Party

    Blog URL - Location: https://xrpcommunity.blog/we-are-early-to-the-party/ XRP fans may have shown up early to the party, but they know what to do: brew coffee and catch up on some light reading! ?????? ????: MUFG Bank and Banco Bradesco implement Ripple tech for Japan-Brazil cross-border payments; Emi Yoshikawa, Ripple's Head of Global Operations & Partnerships, plans on attending TechCrunch Shenzhen on November 20; and SEB has some interesting updates on its integration with Ripple technology. ??? ????: NEXO is offering lines of credit secured by individual crypto holdings; WietseWind has an XRParrot progress update; CKJ Crypto interviews the man behind the successful fundraising campaign for St Jude using the XRP Tip Bot; and RareData has created a hardware wallet comparison matrix. I hope you enjoy the read & please leave any comments below. Feel free to share my blog with anybody you'd like, and on any platform - and thank you for doing so! Links to my blog announcements on other sites & media: Twitter Reddit r/Ripple Reddit r/CryptoCurrency Reddit r/CryptoMarkets Reddit r/xrp Reddit r/RippleTalk Reddit r/alternativecoin Bitcointalk - alt coin sub forum Bitcointalk - XRP speculation thread
  35. 47 points
    I realized a while back that I always had a bunch of "great ideas" that I clung to (very privately) because I thought they were "valuable". The problem was I wasn't acting on those ideas. As I learned more about "value" I realized I was completely wrong. Nothing is valuable unless it is "liquid". Meaning you can trade that value for some other type of alternative type of value more handy at that instant. So I changed my entire way of looking at the world! I decided to capture the value of my latent ideas by making them more liquid. In financial terms, I use them to buy a type of "future" benefit. Here's how my system works. It's a type of contract or promise between you and me. I promise to tell you all my "great ideas" openly and honestly at no charge or up front obligation. You promise that, if you take my great idea and run with it as a business or a project, you'll invite me to help you. (I love cool projects) You further promise, that if you get rich and I don't... I get invited to stay on your yacht. So if you accept these terms (or even if you don't), please introduce yourself below.
  36. 47 points
    BobWay

    Hi! I'm Bob

    I'm trying really hard not to give away too many details before I've established the background ecosystem so everyone can understand the wonkiness. But because you asked in such a well thought out way, it would pain me too much not to respond directly. I'll respond with some brief bullets here. That way you think deeper about it while waiting for me to document the background. The core problem and goal is establishing XRP as a bridge currency. The key questions you have to ask yourself are: Can it conceivably be done? What is needed to make that happen? Everyone with a cryptocurrency believes theirs will become the de facto bridge currency owing just to popularity. Bitcoiners have been presume in this from the beginning. But they are wrong. It is really, really hard to unseat USD as the world's bridge currency. Why? Because USD has a stable predictable value. Stable valued things are great to price and compare other things against. But mostly because volatility means RISK to market makers. They want to buy low and sell high WITHOUT the market moving. And it is these traders money, the deep tips of the book, that defines the concept of liquid. But it gets worse. Using any cryptocurrency as a bridge asset in the way everyone proposes seems ALMOST impossible. Why? You need to deploy TWICE as much capital to create the same liquidity needed for a non-bridged payment. To send $1,000,000 through the EUR/USD book for delivery in EUR requires $1,000,000 of EUR be available for sale in that book. To send the same amount of money, first through the USD/XRP book AND ALSO through the XRP/EUR book requires $2,000,000 of capital be deployed. $1,000,000 worth of XRP must be available for purchase in the USD/XRP book. And, $1,000,000 worth of EUR must be available for purchase in the XRP/EUR book. That EUR and XRP has been invested by market makers who are looking to make a profit on their investment. This profit is represented by the spread they are willing to offer. Think of the spread as a type of "fee" that will be paid in order to deliver the payment. So if you want to make the above payment and you have two otherwise equal "instant" payments pathways, which of the two above options do you automate your choice? Well, you choose whichever one is CHEAPEST of course! Hum, so how does pricing actually work? The first path has to pay one fee. (equal to half the market spread in that book) The second path has to pay two fees. (half the spread in the USD/XRP book, plus half the spread in the XRP/EUR book) So, if you want the second path to be cheaper than the first path, each spread has to be less than half as wide as the first path. And worse... Crypto volatility INCREASES the spread! Each market maker needs to account for the pricing uncertainty in the spread they quote. They have no more idea than you do, if the market is going to move up or down over the next few minutes or seconds. If it moves rapidly, their market making profits can be quickly eaten up by the fact that they end up on the short end of every trade. Market making is a zero sum game. The best price gets the trades. If one trader always quotes the narrowest spread, that trader gets EVERY trade. The second narrowest spread trader can end up with no profits at all. So this is VERY competitive. But in aggregate, successful traders CAN'T quote spreads narrower than the volatility will allow. Or by definition they become unsuccessful traders and don't last long in the business. So what is required for crypto as a bridge currency to even be considered plausible? First you have to remember, "It's a profit deal!" Market makers are going to do what makes THEM the most money. Wider spreads don't necessarily result in higher profits. (see zero sum game above) Spreads * Trades = Profit So having a lot of trades at a small spread, can easily beat having a few trades at a higher spread. Deployed capital matters hugely. If I need $1,000,000 on deposit and I make $50,000 a year trading, I might think that sucks. If I only need $10,000 on deposit and I make $50,000 a year trading, I might think that is SUPER! In fact as deployed capital goes to zero, return on investment tend toward infinity. That is fun for competitive people. So let's be clear here: Market makers can't quote a very narrow spread in a volatile market or they'll lose money. They can't deploy a lot of capital against few trades or they'll lose the opportunity to make more money. Nobody can artificially manipulate the market to stabilize the crypto bridge currency, or they'll go to jail. And obviously, everyone in crypto wants their asset's price to rise overtime and never go down. So without manipulating the market or even inadvertently causing the price to "temporarily" drop as you bootstrap... Is a cryptocurrency becoming a bridge currency even plausible? I'm telling you, I think it is. I'll leave the details up to you graduate students to work through.
  37. 46 points
    Hodor

    Paper Tigers and Real Bears

    Blog URL: https://xrpcommunity.blog/paper-tigers-and-real-bears/ In today's blog, I separate the paper tigers from the real bears, and go in-depth on the latest crypto market downturn, along with some of its causes and effects. 𝐑𝐢𝐩𝐩𝐥𝐞 𝐍𝐞𝐰𝐬: SBI and R3 form a joint company starting in January; PC Mag interviews Asheesh Birla; and Brad Garlinghouse provides his perspective on Ethereum project contractions. 𝐂𝐨𝐢𝐥 𝐍𝐞𝐰𝐬: David Schwartz describes how ILP has joined all new Cosmos blockchains, along with Ethereum. 𝐗𝐑𝐏 𝐍𝐞𝐰𝐬: I describe possible technical improvements for an "XRP 2.0"; The XRP Community API is upgraded to provide real-time API data from 27 exchanges; and a new fan video summarizes the IMF's positive position on digital assets using a comedic technique. I hope you enjoy the read: Please feel free to share my blog with a friend or share it on any other platform - and thanks for doing so! My blog announcement links on other platforms: Twitter Reddit r/Ripple Reddit r/CryptoCurrency Reddit r/CryptoMarkets Reddit r/xrp Reddit r/RippleTalk Reddit r/alternativecoin Bitcointalk - alt coin sub forum Bitcointalk - XRP speculation thread
  38. 45 points
    It has been a long time since I wanted to write this post, but there are just so many ideas in my head I always felt overwhelmed with doing it. So bear with me it is going to be a tad technical and a rather long post. To those who have studied international trade or logistics it will be piece of cake. TL;DR: Skip to the back-office section way down this post. When I discovered Ripple business plan, it did not take me long to think about the amazing opportunities it offers with the Forex market. We know Ripple wants to tackle the Forex market and is already penetrating it. The daily FX, despite its recent slowdown, is estimated to have a 5 Trillion daily volume (Source: BIS). When we think about the FX market, what do we picture ? A bunch of dudes in suits ? Red and green numbers ? Yeah me too But who really uses the FX market ? Banks The greatest volume of currency is traded in the interbank market. This is where banks of all sizes trade currency with each other and through electronic networks. Central banks Central banks, which represent their nation's government, are extremely important players in the forex market. A central bank is responsible for fixing the price of its native currency on forex. This is the exchange rate regime by which its currency will trade in the open market. Exchange rate regimes are divided into floating, fixed and pegged types. Investment Managers and Hedge Funds Portfolio managers, pooled funds and hedge funds make up the second-biggest collection of players in the forex market next to banks and central banks. Investment managers trade currencies for large accounts such as pension funds, foundations, and endowments. Individual Investors The volume of forex trades made by retail investors is extremely low compared to financial institutions and companies. However, it is growing rapidly in popularity. But there is one actor I would like to give a particular attention in this post: Corporations Firms that are involved in importing and exporting conduct FX transactions to pay for goods or services. Much freight transport is done by ships. An individual nation's fleet and the people that crew it are referred to as its merchant navy or merchant marine. Merchant shipping is the lifeblood of the world economy, carrying 90% of international trade with over 100,000 commercial ships worldwide. On rivers and canals, barges are often used to carry bulk cargo. Shipping formulas Depending on the stuffing and unloading operations, the container will be: FCL start - FCL finish: From sender A to recipient A; FCL-LCL : sender A then unbundling on arrival to different recipients; LCL-FCL: grouping initially to a recipient; LCL-LCL: initial grouping and unbundling on arrival. FCL: Full Container Load LCL: Less Than a Container Load Many firms send large amounts of products at once, or send multi-million-worth products by ship. The associated risk is huge and therefore that is why the Incoterms exist. To further enhance the feasibility of such trades, firms which send expensive or massive products from one part of the world to another can decide to use a Letter of Credit (LC). A letter of credit, also known as a documentary credit or bankers commercial credit, or letter of undertaking (LoU), is a payment mechanism used in international trade to provide an economic guarantee from a creditworthy bank to an exporter of goods. Letters of credit are used extensively in the financing of international trade, where the reliability of contracting parties cannot be readily and easily determined. Its economic effect is to introduce a bank as an underwriter, where it assumes the credit risk of the buyer paying the seller for goods. Here is a very simplified diagram of the LC process: Now we are getting to the interesting stuff. What does it mean for us? The reason why I created this topic is: Forex exchange risk Companies trade forex to hedge the risk associated with foreign currency translations. Foreign exchange risk (FX risk) is a financial risk that exists when a financial transaction is denominated in a currency other than that of the base currency of the company. The exchange risk arises when there is a risk of appreciation of the base currency in relation to the denominated currency or depreciation of the denominated currency in relation to the base currency. The risk is that there may be an adverse movement in the exchange rate of the denomination currency in relation to the base currency before the date when the transaction is completed. Let's take an example: You are a French wine exporter (yes French, it's me who decide here ) and you concluded a contract with a US customer on March 1st of 2019. The deal is processed for an amount of $ 50,000 with a payment term of 3 months. As of March 1st, the exchange rate between the dollar and the euro is $ 1 = 1.5 € On June 1st, the exchange rate has changed; it is now $ 1 = 1.0 € The claim of the French exporter thus goes from 75.000 € to 50.000 €: the miss to gain is thus of 25.000 € So how to protect yourself from the FX risk? Many opportunities are available to protect you against foreign exchange risk. You can indeed: Bill in your national currency and therefore transfer the risk to the other contracting party. This solution is the simplest for a company. However, firms should be particularly aware of the impact this choice may have on the competitiveness of their products / services: a competitor who agrees to invoice in the buyer's currency may be more attractive to the foreign buyer. Insure against this risk to a greater or lesser degree depending on the arbitration you have to exercise between security (minimum or no risk of exchange that you agree to take) and the profitability of the operation (impacted by the cost the coverage you will have to pay). Take advantage of the various hedging instruments offered by the banks: Advance in export currency: this technique allows you to eliminate the foreign exchange risk (for a transaction actually paid at maturity) while financing the payment period granted to your buyer. The sale of forward currencies: you can establish in advance with your bank the price at which you will sell the currencies you receive in settlement. Currency risk is fully hedged provided that the timing coincides with the settlement. The forward exchange with profit-sharing: allows you to partially benefit at the end of a possible favorable evolution of the currency used, while guaranteeing you a minimum price. oThe exchange option: a hedging method that gives you the greatest flexibility to benefit from the favorable evolution of the currency rate. The last part is the most interesting for us as it is the solution the most widely adopted and it involves a lot of FX transactions. The forward exchange (futures) The forward exchange is an exchange of 2 currencies on a date (the value date) and a traded price (futures). This type of contract makes it possible to fix in advance a price between 2 currencies, and thus to hedge against the FX risk. The characteristics of a forward exchange transaction are defined in relation to a spot price (the price used for the spot exchange) for the day's transactions. The difference between spot and forward is called "term points". When the futures price is higher than the cash price, it is called "report". When the futures price is lower than the cash price, it is called "offset". But how is the futures price determined? Calculation of the forward rate (you can skip this to the Back-Office part if you want) Futures prices are not quoted as such in the market. For each currency, however, we know the rates of loans / borrowings on different maturities. These are the rates that will be used to calculate futures prices. From the point of view of the trader who quotes the transaction, the forward exchange amounts to combining 3 transactions: A "spot" exchange in the same sense as the futures transaction A loan of the currency purchased over the same term as the futures transaction (the loan repayment flow, a cash flow, coincides with the forward purchase) A loan of the currency sold (the repayment flow coinciding with the forward sale). The following graph illustrates the reasoning in the case of a forward purchase of the currency D1 against D2. Beware the dotted flows are fictitious and are only there to support the reasoning, only the flows at Value Date are real. Let's suppose the trader who is quoting the transaction is working on the following prices: Spot price D1 / D2: S12 / S21 (which means that the trader buys at S12 and sells at S21) D1 rate: t1e / t1p (which means that the trader lends the currency D1, over the period considered, to t1p, and borrows from t1e) D2 rate: t2e / t2p And that he must quote a forward purchase of an amount M1 of currency D1. In order for the repayment of the notional loan of the currency D1 to correspond to this amount, he would have to lend today the amount M'1 such that: M 1 = M'1 + M'1 * t1p * N / 36000 = M'1 (1 + t1p * N / 36000) Where N is the loan term, in number of days. Similarly, the amount M2 paid in the future corresponds to an amount borrowed today M'2 such as: M2 = M'2 + M'2 * t2e * N / 36000 = M'2 (1 + t2e * N / 36000) and the term course sought is such that: T12 = M1 / M2 = (M'1 (1 + t1p * N / 36000)) / (M'2 (1 + t2e * N / 36000)) We know that the spot price S12 is such that: S12 = M'1 / M'2 So !! T12 = S12 (1 + t2e * N / 36000) / (1 + t1p * N / 36000) Or S12 is the price of the spot purchase t2e is the rate of borrowing the currency price t1p is the loan rate of the negotiated currency And conversely for a forward sale: T21 = S21 (1 + t2p * N / 36000) / (1 + t1e * N / 36000) Or S21 is the spot sale price t2p is the loan rate of the currency price t1e is the borrowing rate of the negotiated currency It's a bit complicated but once you enter the formula in an Excel sheet you do not think about it anymore! This means that the futures price, contrary to what one might think, is not an anticipation of what the spot price will be in the future. However, it is based on an evaluation of the value of currencies, via market rates. And finally we get to the juicy stuff. What is happening in back office ? The Back - Office system has the function of materializing the trades negotiated by the trader: Vis-à-vis counterparties: Emissions confirmation: currency exchange transactions are confirmed by SWIFT MT300 messages. Issuing payments: generation of a payment order (MT202) for the correspondent in the paid currency, a notice of entry of funds (MT210) for the correspondent in the currency received. If the counterparty is internal (customer, deal between 2 desks), the payments are made via accounting (debit / credit account). The chart below illustrates the flow of information between 2 banks and their correspondents in the event that Bank A sells Currency 1 against Currency 2 to Bank B: It is literally a maze of flows of information and payments. Why did I create this topic ? To enlighten all the flows of information and payments banks have to deal with when the FX is involved, and most particularly in the event a B2B relation (International trades). Ripple's solutions (messaging + xRapid) hopefully will help circumvent the issues we know. I am sure I forgot a lot of stuff, I didn't talk about all I had in mind on purpose, it was a lot to write in a single post, so please be kind. Thank you
  39. 45 points
    BobWay

    Hi! I'm Bob

    It really depends on what you mean by "mass". At the moment the focus is not on getting XRPL wallets for all 8 billion people on the planet. The more immediate goal is to have all 8 billion people's international payments routed through XRP as a bridge currency. To make this work requires exchanges and traders (on ledger and off) to acquire and trade XRP. It also requires connecting fiat-in and fiat-out service providers to that core network. Traders are competitive folk by nature. When it becomes clear that other traders are making piles of money making XRP markets, then you'll see a mad rush of new traders wanting into the game. The is the kind of "mass" adoption I'm looking for. Keep in mind, traders making bridge currency markets are NOT looking to profit on XRP's price appreciation. What they are doing is profiting on the spread as payments go back and forth. One of my friends at a major bank, developed a system that trades more than a trillion dollars a day making markets. The spread (as a fee) adds up pretty quickly no matter how small it seems. However, you can speculate on potential side effects that happen in response to "mass" XRP market making. The most important thing is that it makes XRP very liquid to more and more currencies. Here "liquid" means that you can sell larger amounts on demand without moving the price in the market. This fact alone MAY draw people to use XRP as a longer term store of value. As they move in and buy up XRP, the increased demand MIGHT drive up prices. Again, as everyone here has witnessed, sometimes when prices begin to move for a sensible reason things can build on themselves. I've said before in this thread that I'm personally bullish on XRP adoption (in the above sense) this year. But like everyone I'm just speculating. Please don't trade on my opinion. My opinion in NO WAY reflects inside information about what Ripple (the company) is currently working on or going to announce. In fact, for the purposes of these forums, I'm much happier not knowing because it allows me to speak more freely without inadvertently saying something I shouldn't.
  40. 45 points
    https://marketplace.r3.com/solutions/instimatch-intradaymoney-market-solution
  41. 44 points
    A few days ago, I opened a topic regarding the vast positive effects in regards to the FX market and International Logistics. One of the key elements I highlighted was the Letters of Credits issued by banks to help exporters / importers conduct their operations; because of how highly tied the Letter of Credits are with the Correspondent Banking system. As being one of the core of my studies, I always was passionate about International Trade and its organizations (IMF, WTO...). Hence I wanted to give the people another look of the DLT potentials. You can find more details on this here: Today, after researching within the World Trade Organization website, I stumbled on a hefty and interesting document: https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/booksp_e/blockchainrev18_e.pdf If you go to page 21 - 22, (pictures below), you will find the traditional trade finance process, which is extremely cumbersome. Also, you will have an overall distribution of the players within the International Trade as well as the contracts and documents these players use to perform exports / imports. Among those documents there is the Letter of Credit, to which I gave a particular attention a few days ago. The document is a gold mine of information that resonate with Ripple technology and how their employees are marketing their solutions. Here is a couple of quotes: Blockchain can revolutionize international trade towards paperless trade: Blockchain could facilitate national G2G (Government to Government) and certain B2G (Business to Government) border procedures: There are many mentions to Ripple throughout the document, but nothing unknown in that perspective. The bottom line is, the developments provided by DLT far surpass what we commonly think and, in that regard, Ripple' solutions, given its compliance with banks, are a perfect fit to upgrade the International Trade and Logistics as a whole. As I see it, I am definitely convinced DLT, and Ripple, will dramatically enhance International Trade as we know it and alleviate its highly fragmented system. And below you will find 2 other documents, published by the Boston Consulting Group that works closely with the WTO. These documents also emphasize on how International Trade and Logistics need blockchain. Resolving the Blockchain Paradox in Transportation and Logistics https://www.bcg.com/en-be/publications/2019/resolving-blockchain-paradox-transportation-logistics.aspx Pairing Blockchain with IoT to Cut Supply Chain Costs https://www.bcg.com/en-be/publications/2018/pairing-blockchain-with-iot-to-cut-supply-chain-costs.aspx
  42. 44 points
    https://ripple.com/insights/ripplenet-surpasses-200-customers-worldwide/?fbclid=IwAR0JgECpzl4HkJcLnvAR89Nuizs82ehOfk4utHuSs1K4r3NAk1hWuD6NFgI
  43. 43 points
    BobWay

    Hi! I'm Bob

    I'm actively working on the club now. 47 pages is too many to expect people to wade through. I'm going to reply to all of your questions here so please keep asking if you are curious about something. But I'm going to split or copy your questions into their own thread in the club when I reply.
  44. 43 points
    BobWay

    Hi! I'm Bob

    Wow, it is pretty clear I can't keep up with this thread! I go to sleep and there are two more pages. I was already two pages behind! Anyway, I'm not sure I've had a shower in two days. I think my wife deserves that. So expect me to start responding in earnest in a little while. I have read all your posts. Thank you for all the good questions and kind words!
  45. 43 points
    hammertoe

    xRapid simulator

    Hi All, I knocked up a quick and dirty 'simulator' to simulate xRapid transactions based on actual live orderbooks from various exchanges. Full details here: https://www.quernus.co.uk/2019/02/13/ripple-xrapid-simulator/ -Matt
  46. 43 points
    This is a talk from November's IMF event. Ryan Zagone is the Director of Regulatory Relations in Ripple and he literary NAILED it!
  47. 42 points
  48. 41 points
    Once again people are freaking out because XRP has dropped below the $80 support level. $70 is on the cards in the next few days...and I can only imagine the retail panic if and when we get to that price. Yes, we hit $100 - briefly. We all knew sell orders would kick in and we'd come tumbling back down. We'd been on an incredible run, and we are due a massive correction. It'll happen, people will panic, and I think a year long bear market COULD be on the cards. Don't shoot the messenger, just my opinion. Now I've said that - just breathe in, breathe out. And let me give newer investors a quick history lesson and overview of the last 4 years, and encouraging words. I'll go over some technicals too. Apologies if you already know this, but it's all relevant. The last proper bear market was in 2018 / early 2019. Read that again. Fairly much we've been in a 4 year bull market (we used to call these "runs" as they were so short!). We've had a few bear "seasons" since then, but nothing decent. We've been spoiled rotten. Ever since the SEC gave XRP the green light in September 2019, it's been fireworks ever since. What followed was a cascade of events that were clearly just waiting for the SEC to drop the flag. The biggest reveal was xPool. This blew away the idea that public exchanges would be used for xRapid liquidity, and that banks wouldn't hold XRP. Instead, banks bought up XRP - causing its price to spike up to just under $10 by December 2019 (from a low of 50 cents in September 2019!). Banks used their XRP with a non-public exchange known as xPool. Central banks provided xPool with fiat liquidity. Banks could trade in and out of this single exchange - facilitating cross-border payments. Though non-public, xPool was fully transparent. Every bundled transaction was publicly visible. Transactions were bundled via Cobalt, with each bundle sent as a single transaction via the XRPL - where each bundle was then unpacked on private ledgers to maintain privacy for bank's customers. The transparency of xPool meant that accounting firms could audit everything with certainty (with access to each bank's private ledger too), and that governments had full transparency themselves over every single international payment made. A perfect storm for XRP was brewing. In fact, the demand for XRP became so great - from banks, central banks, institutional investors, retail investors - that XRP quickly overtook BTC and ETH in a huge wave of speculation that saw the space introduce the "XRP dominance" metric....which has never dipped below 50% since late 2019 (as an aside I met someone yesterday who flat-out didn't believe me that we used to have a "BTC dominance" metric!). XRP's price was propelled by one good news story after another. The whales who got in under $1 were waiting for a correction that never came. And so the price just kept climbing. History lesson over. I say all of this because even though XRP is due a big correction, the demand for XRP is only getting started. Microtransactions is where XRP's new wave of demand will come from. Coil is now 5 years old and since its partnership with Google - it's been the number one monetising platform for publishers. Coil has proven that microtransactions have a solid future. Next up will be M2M microtransactions on the ILP which will explode volume by at least x1000 what it is now. You read that right. Furthermore, STOs will finally be bridged via XRP so you can use your STOs to pay for anything - soon you'll be buying your happy meal with your STOs. Not only that, but the fast food restaurant will reward your loyalty by loading up your wallet with some of their own STOs. As mentioned, every transaction bridged by XRP. It's all coming - be prepared for a $1000 XRP in 2026 or so, with a nice long ride up to that price (I might take a quiet moment of reflection when we pass the $589 mark, more experienced readers will know what - or who - I'm referring to here). However, before we see those numbers, I'm sure we're going to revisit a low of $50, so hold on to your hats and do not sell. There's a decent number of whales who got in under $1 and have been waiting for this correction to sell into. Let them sell, let them enjoy their gains. Take a breather, and get ready for the REAL ride.
  49. 41 points
    Hodor

    Skepticism versus Wonderment

    Blog URL: https://xrpcommunity.blog/skepticism-versus-wonderment/ The pendulum between skepticism and wonderment is in motion: Find out more, along with all the latest news impacting XRP in my latest blog! 𝐆𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐥 𝐂𝐫𝐲𝐩𝐭𝐨 𝐍𝐞𝐰𝐬: Warren Davidson signals that he's getting closer to resubmitting the Token Taxonomy Act. 𝐑𝐢𝐩𝐩𝐥𝐞 𝐍𝐞𝐰𝐬: Ripple hosts Eva Kaili in an event in London; SendFriend secures more funding; Ahli Bank of Kuwait signs on with RippleNet; Ripple publishes information about a UBRI partner in Brazil; and Evan Schwartz kicks off the new Interledger forum. 𝐗𝐑𝐏 𝐍𝐞𝐰𝐬: Nobitex, an Iranian exchange, now offers a fiat pairing between the Iranian Rial and XRP; SpendCard now supports XRP; and Digycode enables French citizens to purchase XRP at ten thousand retail locations. I hope you enjoy the read: Please feel free to share my blog with a friend or share it on any other platform - and thanks for doing so! My blog announcement links on other platforms: Twitter Reddit r/Ripple Reddit r/CryptoCurrency Reddit r/CryptoMarkets Reddit r/xrp Reddit r/RippleTalk Reddit r/alternativecoin Bitcointalk - alt coin sub forum Bitcointalk - XRP speculation thread
  50. 41 points
    Hodor

    Digital Assets are Here to Stay

    Blog URL: https://xrpcommunity.blog/digital-assets-are-here-to-stay/ Digital Assets are here to stay! Find out about it and all the major news affecting XRP in my latest blog: 𝐑𝐢𝐩𝐩𝐥𝐞 𝐍𝐞𝐰𝐬: Fleetcor may purchase Western Union Business Payments; Marcus Treacher gives a great overview of how Ripple is solving cross-border payments; and an electrifying Ripple Drop episode from Ripple zooms in on the sharing economy use case. 𝐂𝐨𝐢𝐥 𝐍𝐞𝐰𝐬: Coil takes over where Ripple left off, and teams with the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. 𝐗𝐑𝐏 𝐍𝐞𝐰𝐬: You can 'roll your own' escrow using the XRP Tip Bot application; Two decentralized exchanges add support for XRP, along with one centralized exchange; 'Thinking Crypto' releases an Omni deep dive with Tom McLeod; and now you can buy beer with your zerps... in Serbia! I hope you enjoy the read: please feel free to share my blog on whatever platform you wish - and thank you for doing so! Links to my blog announcements on other platforms: Twitter Reddit r/Ripple Reddit r/CryptoCurrency Reddit r/CryptoMarkets Reddit r/xrp Reddit r/RippleTalk Reddit r/alternativecoin Bitcointalk - alt coin sub forum Bitcointalk - XRP speculation thread
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