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XRP trading insights

  1. What's new in this club
  2. Gents, long time no surfing. Looking like a triple bottom? Bears losing appetite?
  3. An update... count slightly changed as the correction has evolved, but direction the same as what I described April 21st. The end of wave II will be excellent place to enter for smart money getting ready for wave 3 up.
  4. Short term update. XRPUSD eeked out a new nominal high to end the first impulsive wave up, and now is in a counter trend / corrective move down. Price is following the Elliott wave pattern very well so far.
  5. XRPUSD has been rallying along with the rest of crypto since the beginning of April. Volume is strong, and price over the last 48 hours has broken through 50 and 200 EMA daily moving averages. More importantly, from an Elliott wave perspective, the move up from the recent lows has an impulsive, 5 wave look so far. Very positive developments that lend evidence to the possibility that wave 2 has ended and wave 3 has begun. Short term update here.
  6. @Coretex and @RobertStrong posted very interesting links about BTC Shorts position now... Just for fun...I compared shorts to price action in the past 6 months First is the 5000 USD resistance then support level in October/November...Shorts tried to keep it under 5K but missed both times...some still made money on the second attempt if they covered in time but the rest got squeezed real bad till the end of December.. Then nobody wanted to short BTC...some gambled at ATH 20k but most probably felt it could still go much higher and went long all the way down until a major shift early February. Who ever flipped their position back to short made a real profit...the price went from around 12k to less than 7k...traders going long on margins from ATH were surely called and that help bring the price down real fast Then again most traders thought we found bottom and BTC was going back up for a while...even an attempt early march to short didn't work and kept most trader in between options around 11k until mid-march when they all when furious on shorts...the support around 7.5k didn't convince shorters that added crazy to their position to get us at a new ATH Shorts... Now what's gonna happened? The longer the price stays sideways...the longer the stress will build...some will probably keep shorting to "force" the break down and finally get their profit orgasm...but if it doesn't break...a major shift should occur as all those shorters will have to run for cover and get rekt... If it breaks down the next level where shorters got f**k was at 5k....they all see the charts...if we go there...will they take the chance to break that psych level or shift side and take a break while they laugh all the way to the bank? Either way we should have the answer before the end of April.
  7. Bears, Bulls and Whales Same chart...bird's view...numbers explained 1. Bears laughing all the way to the bank...Bulls margin call...Whales accumulating 2. Bears shorting...no worry (for them)...Bulls waking up...Whales accumulating 3. Bears shorting more...but getting a little worried...stop order are starting to line up...Twitter gurus are calling for the Bulls...Whales waiting on the side lines with a $200 Martini 4. Bears fighting...FUD everywhere...FOMO kicking in and Bears will do anything to make sure a Bulls' run dies now...Whales assessing their next moves calling meetings 5. Bears bankrupted...shorts margin recall...Bulls now in control...Whales pumping like crazy to create the dream we're going for a new ATH
  8. The whales sure have a sense of humor, don't they?
  9. ...and boom! I sure hope it's not a fake run...whales should have their belly fun by now!
  10. What I see...like I said in the zerpbox "that would be biblical if the Day of the Resurrection would be a key date in our future charts"
  11. Ridiculous reason for Monday's drop...but the market is so fragile right now https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bitcoin-slides-after-week-of-record-low-volatility-2018-03-26
  12. Considering that no bad news spoils the week...no more MtGox dumping...and no more efficient FUD campaign...here's what I think we should see unfolding. BTC is at a very good accumulation level...as soon as the whales are filled it should start moving back up to 10k USD XRP has showed strong support...with the help of BTC it should also move up over 0.80 USD Some favs pump Alts will start pumping again...we already saw some movement with TRX, XVG, SC...ADA, DENT, XLM should jump on that list too Add some Spring frenzy from the Northern Continent and we could have a nice green week...
  13. Also, updated my longer term elliott wave counts slightly to reflect the recent new price low yesterday.
  14. Back from vacation... short term post from yesterday here.
  15. I agree...1.20-1.30 USD is the number to break to run with the bulls...
  16. Been in a pattern of range bound prices and diminishing volume/volatility. May be about to change. Update to the short term price.
  17. One more thought on wave 2's. If my count is accurate, we are in or are near the end of a minor degree wave 2 of intermediate degree 5 of primary degree wave 1. Does it seem to fit with the definition below? Low volume, low volatility... 2nd waves end on a whimper. "Second Waves (Wave 2) Second waves tend to retrace so much of Wave 1 that most of the profits gained are eroded. They tend to end on low volume and low volatility. In a bear market, this indicates a drying up of selling pressure. However, during Wave 2 most investors are convinced that the bear market is here to stay."
  18. Okay so correct me if my summation is incorrect. We're still looking at the 5th intermediate in the Primary wave. That could go up quite a bit more. - Yes. It might extend http://thepatternsite.com/EWExtension5.html and it might truncate (rare) https://ewminteractive.com/truncated-fifth-wave-the-black-swan Then the 2nd Primary wave starts and we could see that retrace most of the 1st move of the Primary wave? Meaning, it could head down to .20s-40s ish? Possibly coming down from over $3 as a result of the 5th intermediate in the 1st primary? Yes. Most commonly retracements end between 38% - 62% fibonacci levels and end within the price range of the prior wave 4 (of primary wave 1)... between .57 - 3.24. XRP is not a common asset though... tends to be way more volatile, so until we get more transactional volume/liquidity, I hold onto these guidelines very loosely.
  19. Okay so correct me if my summation is incorrect. We're still looking at the 5th intermediate in the Primary wave. That could go up quite a bit more. Then the 2nd Primary wave starts and we could see that retrace most of the 1st move of the Primary wave? Meaning, it could head down to .20s-40s ish? Possibly coming down from over $3 as a result of the 5th intermediate in the 1st primary?
  20. I expect after the 5th intermediate wave (primary wave 1), there will be a primary wave 2 to correct the entire primary wave 1 up. "Second Waves (Wave 2) Second waves tend to retrace so much of Wave 1 that most of the profits gained are eroded. They tend to end on low volume and low volatility. In a bear market, this indicates a drying up of selling pressure. However, during Wave 2 most investors are convinced that the bear market is here to stay." The only rule for wave 2's is that they can retrace up to the entire wave 1 and still be valid. Often, I have observed that they end within the price range of the 4th wave of the previous waves lesser degree (Primary wave 1, Intermediate wave 4). I expect that it will be deep in terms of % retracement OR long in terms of time and shallow, but not likely both. The psychological effect of wave 2's are that they tend to convince almost all participants that the bull market is over. Primary wave 1 has lasted over a year so far, with a fifth wave still ahead. Primary 2 should last a number of months. On this last subject, the psychological effect... the alternative to my count (not shown on my charts) is that we are CURRENTLY in the primary second wave, not the intermediate 4th wave of the primary 1st. While the psychological profile arguably might fit the character of a wave 2 (lots of bears out there), the 2nd wave count doesnt fit the charts as well (at least on the log charts). Should we break below the lower yellow trend channels though in a significant way, I would have to conceded that this alternative count is correct. At that time, I might also spend more time on the non-log scale for elliott counts. This is not my preferred count though, so don't want to introduce too much FUD for an alternate that I don't think is accurate right now... just filing in the back of my mind. NOTE ON 5TH WAVES: There is a tendency for 5th waves to extend in certain markets. Commodities are a classic example. I have seen this effect in crypto as well. 5th waves can also be truncated, especially if the 3rd wave wave very extended (I think you could count XRP's 3rd wave as extended). A truncated 5th would mean that wave 5 does not exceed wave 3 highs. Truncated 5ths are rare enough to where you typically don't see Elliott wavers label them in real time, and if you do, they are most often wrong... just wanted to keep that in mind.
  21. So, this primary degree correction after the 5th wave you mention...you expect that to be substantial. Does that mean lower than previous sets of waves? As in, it could explode to $15 and then tank below a dollar? Or so you mean you expect it to be substantial like the previous corrections after the 5th wave?
  22. Ok guys, this next post has been a long time coming. Elliott Wave theory is not for the faint of heart, but I have been waiting to put a first count on the long term XRP chart for awhile. Feel free to ask any questions or provide any critique you would like.
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