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Speculation about trading and price of XRP. Technical trading tips, fundamental analysis etc

  1. What's new in this club
  2. How would that benefit Ripple, it would just be giving free shares to XRP holders? The whole purpose of an IPO is to raise funds.
  3. This is exactly what I'm trying to code up. There's a couple of dynamic parameters to content with, like: The sampling rate of the two order books The conversion amounts The re-balancing latency of the arbitrage and MM actions The few facts we can glean are what we are left to focus on, the rest is conjecture. Facts such as... The XRPL transaction events, timing and sizes The buy and sell trade amounts, and their frequency I need to take a closer look at the Bitso trade sizes, and the amounts granularity I'm calculating the slippage at. I'll be back...
  4. Bearable Bull is embarrassment to the community. I consider his opinions as BS. I just think Ripple must have those XRPs in escrows for something and I do not believe they will go public because they are losing confidence in XRP, heck they even shelled out $50 million to moneygram to have them start using it just to prove their concept works. I believe the IPO has to happen to satisfy SEC, either the SEC told them to do it or they are trying to force SEC to regulate. Kind of like a checkmate
  5. I think a low spread in combination with a lot of tightly clustered high value bid/asks is a very good indication that things are going well. When ODL is running in high liquidity we would hope for very low spread (bid and offers are very close together) and very low potential slippage (the bid/asks at the spread are large enough to handle the trades (low slippage). We do not want ODL to be consuming significant chunks of the buy and sell stack (slippage). We want it to pass through the order book in the first bids and offers... we want them high enough In value that they are not consumed by the order. I don’t think we are there yet... so a graph that can show the climb in the total value (hopefully that happens) of the order book (halved) that is within say half a percent of the midpoint might be worth creating. Ie. if mid point is 0.2300 then total of the bids and asks that are within the range 0.229475 - 0.230575 divided by two, sampled every 10 minutes. If liquidity is rising that total should climb. And it’s absolute value tells you approximately how many dollars value you can push through with a max of a quarter of a percent slippage. The history of such a graph (and maybe a meta combo of all the corridors) would be revealing for how liquidity is going in the ODL exchanges.
  6. Resistance at $9200 will be a good test to see if this rally has legs.
  7. I expect either flat consolidation or a small correction, then on with the next impulse higher. But I need multiple confirmations first and those are not in yet.
  8. The circulating XRP supply has a marketcap of 10b $ right now. The company Ripple is valued at 10b $. They could burn the remaining XRP and just make XRP to their company share? All the circulating XRP have the same value as the company right now... Not shure if this is in any way possible or legal... but in theory we are speaking about tokenized company shares since the start of the XRPL.
  9. Three month high for Bitcoin is $9600. I'd say if it makes it past $9600 with momentum then that's excellent news.
  10. I'm afraid that I am also a programmer/engineer and my limited knowledge of economics is not through any kind of formal training. I do however know that water flows downhill and that if ripple's ODL turns out to be cheaper overall than the existing system, we can expect a flood of activity.
  11. That's what I was worried - I've got the wrong label ("Sprd") in my table's column - it should be "slippage" as a metric of the percentage loss of the fiat to fiat conversion realized at the end-point. I am guessing, that the ODL events are somewhat unique to traditional markets, at least in the realm of commodity trading, and more akin to the FX market activities. As for ODL and a "spread" value, it's nearly useless - since ODL is consuming significant chunks out of the bid and ask stack. Thanks for your patience and help Tiny-san
  12. Reached my projected target zone Waiting for next signal to trigger. We remain in an uptrend for now.
  13. I think you have that backwards. The spread is between the highest bid (what someone will pay) and the lowest offer (what someone will sell for). Slippage is how much more than the original lowest offer you ended up paying after the order book offers were eaten up by your purchase. Or visa versa if you are selling. You probably know all that so apologies but I thought it might help someone at some point,
  14. Seems we might be testing 9k shortly, good volume too. 15m chart:
  15. @baobeiiiii I was counting from the April 1 price which was like 5 days before the cross - I was ballparking the 4k to 14k run which is about 3.5 - but yeah I was rounding down on the start and up on the end and looking at it in the most rosy way I could.
  16. @Eric123I'm seeing it as a 2.4x run during the months after the last 50/100 EMA cross, not near 4x. Still it's good stuff if it happens again, thanks for bringing it to our attention! However, I wouldn't put much hope in it at all; last few crosses before that didn't do much, if anything, and it's just a trailing indicator anyway. Even the cross we are talking about, price went sideways for ages after that.
  17. @jbjnr Thanks for your feedback - I feel we're on the same page, but I'm a coder not a trader Please share your knowledge with me: I've seen the word "spread" used in the context of an order book, as a metric only factoring for the difference between the lowest bid and highest ask price of an order book. Is there another term properly used for the baseline cost estimation of an ODL paired trade (i.e. X amount of fiat spent to acquire XRP, then same XRP sold for fiat) this is the slippage maybe ? (Same term if a gain is realized?) Have you by chance already seen my BS/Bitso DoM charts and Cost Estimates tables in other posts here ? I'm concerned about getting the terms and labeling right, your input is greatly appreciated. Thanks for your time.
  18. ^ It would be so nice to have a 4x run between now and the halving, with a pullback after the halving for accumulating more before a proper run to 10 million USD per bitcoin
  19. Ripple announced in their Q3 report that there is already enough XRP liquidity in the market and they will distribute XRP only to enhance ODL related activities. Ripple’s IPO will give them a good cash power to execute their plans without selling XRP. Most of the venture capital investors wanted a ipo before next recession cycle. But either wise I don’t think Ripple will do anything to harm the price of XRP. Most of them are looking into the short term aspects of a IPO but it’s hard to judge the long term impact of this move. Even if you have a sighted concern about XRP , you should start looking into other assets that you feel comfortable about
  20. The 50 Day EMA is about 4 Days away from making a bullish cross of the 100 Day EMA . Last time this happened was April 5, 2019 and we went on about a 4x run of the course of 3 months.Good stuff ahead.
  21. You mean this 3 month old article quoting The Arab Times journalist who wrote unsubstantiated conjecture about Swift that was already a year old? Nothing to see here.
  22. The answer to that really depends on what is it you're trying to do or know! I do no know what your motivation for examining the order books is. I try to track ODL activity because it's one of the key parameters in my models of xrp price, so I'm interested in tracking the total volume. Other parameters that are useful are the spread between bid/ask across the corridor - however, I can assume it will lie between (say) 5 and 50 basis points and that's good enough for me to chart parametrically. Knowing how much xrp market makers are holding (and or offering) in different price brackets would be very useful to know. I'm not certain that that is something that can be directly inferred from the trades, but it is reasonable to expect that the amount being held will be in some way proportional to the flow rate of ODL through an exchange, so maybe it is possible to derive some metric from the data you are collecting by analyzing the change in bid/ask as ODL trades are passing through. I have not thought about this deeply ... I will ponder this.
  23. I understand your points but I think this is a very short term view that would really only benefit holders, Ripple are in this for the long haul and they believe that 100Bn XRP is required for a reason.
  24. Personally I think the locked up XRP are a big asset for ODL. It is stock that can be sued to set up new corridors and exchanges. It can also be used to calm speculative bubbles overheating. I think when ODL takes off and gains a substantial foothold in international cross border payments, the escrowed XRP will have to be given over to some sort of non partisan international organisation
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